2024 NFL Draft Thread

[TheKillerNacho]

1 hour ago, Swampbilly said:

I agree that mocks definitely have oversold QB's in the recent past.  But, what I'm looking at right now more than anything is PFF grading (which has it's issues) and Team Needs (which I think we both agree that is what teams draft for overwhelmingly in round 1).

Here's the list of teams that are selecting in the top 20 (by pick #) and that I'm sure would love to upgrade their QB situation before the 2024 season;

1. Chicago

2. Washington

3. New England

6. NY Giants

8. Atlanta

9. Chicago again (they're going to use one of these picks on a QB, but probably pick 1)

11. Minnesota

12. Denver

13. Raiders

14. Saints

Honorable mention Arizona picking at 4

That is a lot of QB need. 

Here's a list of potential starting caliber FA QBs for 2024;

Kirk Cousins

Ryan Tannehill

Jacoby Brissett

Jameis Winston

Baker Mayfield

Cousins is the only QB on that list IMO that can be counted on to definitely be a starter, the others are potential starters

QB's that are looking at a cut or possible trade scenario for 2024; Derek Carr (possible not likely), Russell Wilson (probable highly likely)

So, Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson would be QB's that 2 of the 9 QB needy teams would view as a solution to their QB need IMO.  That leaves 7 teams that are definitely interested in upgrading their QB situation in 2024 (regardless of what the teams say publicly)

Long story, but this is why I'm currently predicting 5 first round QBs for 2024.  Maybe I'm overthinking it, but I have thought it out and done brief evaluations.

 

QB demand is always very large but most teams that cannot land a top prospect will wait for Day2.

Also some minor nitpicks:

1. if Chicago moves on from Fields or NO moves on from Carr, they'll be traded to another QB-needy team. Daniel Jones might also find a new home in the event he's replaced. Either way, the team that those guys are on would likely wait for Day 2 to potentially draft a QB.
2. Sam Darnold and Jimmy Garrapollo are also going to probably be available in FA. Trey Lance is potentially available too by trade.
3. Coaches on the hotseat will certainly prefer a veteran starter. For that reason, I'd think Chicago (assuming Fields is traded), Washington, New England, and Atlanta are going to be the teams primarily looking to draft a rookie. One of these could potentially trade down to the end of the 1st to select someone, I'd agree.

I think they'll be 3-4 1st round QBs, and personally, I want nothing to do with drafting Nix/Penix in the 1st round even if I considered us QB-needy... they're just poor value. Heck, considering I doubt either will be as good as Tua, I wouldn't even want us touching them in the 2nd! Next year is McDaniel's 3rd year, and Grier's 8th - I very much think we'll be in an all-in mindset.

[Swampbilly]

19 hours ago, TheKillerNacho said:

QB demand is always very large but most teams that cannot land a top prospect will wait for Day2.

Also some minor nitpicks:

1. if Chicago moves on from Fields or NO moves on from Carr, they'll be traded to another QB-needy team. Daniel Jones might also find a new home in the event he's replaced. Either way, the team that those guys are on would likely wait for Day 2 to potentially draft a QB.
2. Sam Darnold and Jimmy Garrapollo are also going to probably be available in FA. Trey Lance is potentially available too by trade.
3. Coaches on the hotseat will certainly prefer a veteran starter. For that reason, I'd think Chicago (assuming Fields is traded), Washington, New England, and Atlanta are going to be the teams primarily looking to draft a rookie. One of these could potentially trade down to the end of the 1st to select someone, I'd agree.

I think they'll be 3-4 1st round QBs, and personally, I want nothing to do with drafting Nix/Penix in the 1st round even if I considered us QB-needy... they're just poor value. Heck, considering I doubt either will be as good as Tua, I wouldn't even want us touching them in the 2nd! Next year is McDaniel's 3rd year, and Grier's 8th - I very much think we'll be in an all-in mindset.

Overall, your stance is a common and safe stance on this QB draft.  Mine is a bit riskier since I believe in no risk it no biscuit.

I did take into account what you are saying about the QB trades, but here's where I landed..... No one is trading for Fields with expectations of him being the immediate starter, same with Lance, same with Darnold, same with Daniel Jones (no one is trading for him regardless with the exception they get a pick to take on his contract), there will be a market for Garrapollo but it's likely to a team that missed out on drafting a QB (depending on cap hit Garrapollo would be a better Tua insurance plan than what we currently have IMO).  We know who all of these guys are and with the exception of Fields none of them have shown the potential to be a tier 1 guy.

Hot seat Coaches; doesn't necessarily matter what the Coach wants on draft day, especially if he's got one foot out the door.  Hot seat GM is another matter.

Brock Purdy.......... would have been a first round pick if teams only knew he could play so well within a system, and that's what I see from Bo Nix, he has been fantastic within Oregon's system and he is very experienced with RPO's, something we like to do, and the kid is immaculate against the blitz and pressure.  More than 50% of first round picks are a bust, so if I'm going to swing why not swing for the fences every year until you have the Homerun with the bases loaded.

In summary, you've made a nice safe argument LOL........  Would I bet anyone Bo Nix goes in round 1?  Nope, but I would risk it for our team situation.  Would our GM risk it?  Nope I don't think he would.

I like Tua and I'm routin for Tua, but he's clearly more limited than I thought he was at pick 5.  He has put up monster numbers with a fantastic roster and elite WR's and I hope we can keep those WR's, RB's, and OL's once we are paying him $40 mil plus a year.

Edited January 19 by Swampbilly

[Phinsesq]

On 1/15/2024 at 11:21 AM, TheKillerNacho said:

I'd rather resign Connor Williams and spend this pick elsewhere.

Williams is a complicated decision given the injury and cap limitations and likely salary demands. If they are going to move on from Williams as a cap casualty, I think that center needs to be the pick. The talent is there if he recovers but the uncertainty as to recovery may necessitate a decision to move in a new direction.

[TheKillerNacho]

1 hour ago, Phinsesq said:

Williams is a complicated decision given the injury and cap limitations and likely salary demands. If they are going to move on from Williams as a cap casualty, I think that center needs to be the pick. The talent is there if he recovers but the uncertainty as to recovery may necessitate a decision to move in a new direction.

well it wouldnt be a "cap casualty" as he is a FA and that injury could drive the price down too.

regardless, i can't advocate taking a player at horrible value regadless of need. and even if we were going to, Graham Barton and Jackson Powers-Johnson are probably better prospects (although all three should easily fall to the 2nd or even 3rd rounds, so why would we possibly invest a 1st on one???)

[Phinsesq]

19 hours ago, TheKillerNacho said:

well it wouldnt be a "cap casualty" as he is a FA and that injury could drive the price down too.

regardless, i can't advocate taking a player at horrible value regadless of need. and even if we were going to, Graham Barton and Jackson Powers-Johnson are probably better prospects (although all three should easily fall to the 2nd or even 3rd rounds, so why would we possibly invest a 1st on one???)

Im definitely not advocating any one particular person be drafted I am not very versed on the center prospects.whoever is the best or top 3, I don’t necessarily want to bank on one of them falling to the late 2nd round. Center is a need one way or another, I don’t think Williams will be ready for the start of the season. Those fumbled snaps and ineligible man down field penalties are pet peeves of mine. Robert Hunt is a free agent and a proven commodity as well, with less uncertainty. I think one or the other is gone. Preparing for Armsteads replacement isn’t bad either. I guess what I am rambling my way into is draft O line.

It almost seems like drafting left tackle is the way to go strategically. The positional value in left tackle is the protection of the blind side as most QBs are right handed. The right side is Tuas blind side, so we can protect his blind side without having to pay a premium for left tackle. Draft left tackles early throughout Tuas career get them on rookie pay scales let them leave after the 5th year option and hopefully collect a compensatory pick. Armstead is admittedly a beast, and we are stuck with his contract I believe through the next season, but it is food for thought going forward building the team around the novelty of a left handed QB. 

Off topic-ish but still aggravates me we don’t have a 4th due to the tampering, 1st was harsh enough, but deserved. If later teams weren’t allowed to negotiate a penalty for tampering allegations I would be less aggravated, as this punishment was supposed to send a message to the other teams. 

[Swampbilly]

On 2/13/2024 at 1:44 PM, TheKillerNacho said:

well it wouldnt be a "cap casualty" as he is a FA and that injury could drive the price down too.

regardless, i can't advocate taking a player at horrible value regadless of need. and even if we were going to, Graham Barton and Jackson Powers-Johnson are probably better prospects (although all three should easily fall to the 2nd or even 3rd rounds, so why would we possibly invest a 1st on one???)

I like the idea of Jackson-Powers Johnson (JPJ) at 21.  He's climbing draft boards IMO, but of course we still have combine and pro days, so right now he is looking like a prospect that could go in round 1.  He has versatility with evidence of excellent reps at both C and RG.  If we lose both Williams and Hunt in Free Agency then I could see JPJ as our starting RG with Eichenberg starting at C for 2023 and then moving JPJ to C and finding our RG in 2025.  It would be fantastic to trade back a few picks and receive a 2nd or 3rd round pick while still drafting JPJ.

Also, I keep seeing Graham Barton mentioned as a C prospect, but I cant find any evidence of him having snaps at any OL position other than LT.  He's played LT reasonably well enough in College and at 6'5" 315 he has the size for LT in the NFL.  Most years he would be a 1st rounder IMO, except this year is a very special OT draft.  What am I missing?  Why am I seeing him being projected as a C?

Additionally; Keep an eye on Mason McCormick out of South Dakota State.  He's a fantastic LG for zone blocking schemes and brings physicality at 6'5" 315lb.  And, Cooper Beebe at 6'4" 335lb also at LG and very physical (reminds me of Richie Incognito).  I think both are 3rd-4th round prospects, so I wish we had a picks in those rounds lol.

Edited February 18 by Swampbilly

[babyatemydingo]

On 2/18/2024 at 11:00 AM, Swampbilly said:

I like the idea of Jackson-Powers Johnson (JPJ) at 21.  He's climbing draft boards IMO, but of course we still have combine and pro days, so right now he is looking like a prospect that could go in round 1.  He has versatility with evidence of excellent reps at both C and RG.  If we lose both Williams and Hunt in Free Agency then I could see JPJ as our starting RG with Eichenberg starting at C for 2023 and then moving JPJ to C and finding our RG in 2025.  It would be fantastic to trade back a few picks and receive a 2nd or 3rd round pick while still drafting JPJ.

Also, I keep seeing Graham Barton mentioned as a C prospect, but I cant find any evidence of him having snaps at any OL position other than LT.  He's played LT reasonably well enough in College and at 6'5" 315 he has the size for LT in the NFL.  Most years he would be a 1st rounder IMO, except this year is a very special OT draft.  What am I missing?  Why am I seeing him being projected as a C?

Additionally; Keep an eye on Mason McCormick out of South Dakota State.  He's a fantastic LG for zone blocking schemes and brings physicality at 6'5" 315lb.  And, Cooper Beebe at 6'4" 335lb also at LG and very physical (reminds me of Richie Incognito).  I think both are 3rd-4th round prospects, so I wish we had a picks in those rounds lol.

JPJ won't slide past 22.

On Barton, he's susceptible to inside moves from the edge.
That is why he is better suited inside.
He'd be average at tackle, possibly a Pro-Bowler at guard.
He played six games, five as a starter, at center in 2020.
 

[Swampbilly]

On 2/22/2024 at 8:25 PM, babyatemydingo said:

JPJ won't slide past 22.

On Barton, he's susceptible to inside moves from the edge.
That is why he is better suited inside.
He'd be average at tackle, possibly a Pro-Bowler at guard.
He played six games, five as a starter, at center in 2020.
 

Thanks for the info on Barton, and I agree that right now betting on JPJ being available beyond pick 22 is probably a losing bet.

[babyatemydingo]

On 2/24/2024 at 11:57 AM, Swampbilly said:

Thanks for the info on Barton, and I agree that right now betting on JPJ being available beyond pick 22 is probably a losing bet.

Here's a thought, what about a trade down?
Miami only has six picks.

#22 + 7th (roughly 239)
for
#50, #53 and a 5th (probably 160).

That would give the Dolphins 50, 53 and 55.
Given the depth at certain positions they could fill DE (Ogbah), CB (Howard) and land a starting G or TE inexpensively.
Maybe some combination of players like Isaac/Dorlus, Cohen/Mahogany, Lassiter/Newton and/or Sanders/Bell?

I don't think it would happen until draft day, but it would solve some cap issues and enable them in the FA market particularly after June 1 cuts.

[Swampbilly]

On 2/25/2024 at 2:29 PM, babyatemydingo said:

Here's a thought, what about a trade down?
Miami only has six picks.

#22 + 7th (roughly 239)
for
#50, #53 and a 5th (probably 160).

That would give the Dolphins 50, 53 and 55.
Given the depth at certain positions they could fill DE (Ogbah), CB (Howard) and land a starting G or TE inexpensively.
Maybe some combination of players like Isaac/Dorlus, Cohen/Mahogany, Lassiter/Newton and/or Sanders/Bell?

I don't think it would happen until draft day, but it would solve some cap issues and enable them in the FA market particularly after June 1 cuts.

I'm expecting to see something like this play out for us on draft day, with the exception being a prospect that we can't pass up is sitting at pick 21.

[hrubes20]

On 2/27/2024 at 2:43 PM, Swampbilly said:

I'm expecting to see something like this play out for us on draft day, with the exception being a prospect that we can't pass up is sitting at pick 21.

I agree.  Not hard to see Grier trading back a bit and picking up another pick.  

I've really become a fan of DeJean.  The secondary is already pretty loaded, but I just don't trust Poyer as the other starting S. Then they could grab an OG in the 2nd round.

[hrubes20]

How would everyone feel if Xavier Worthy was the pick in the 1st?  Fins could use an upgrade at WR3, but I don't think it's worth it at this juncture and with the need at OL.  Hill/Waddle command a boatload of targets.

[Swampbilly]

10 hours ago, hrubes20 said:

How would everyone feel if Xavier Worthy was the pick in the 1st?  Fins could use an upgrade at WR3, but I don't think it's worth it at this juncture and with the need at OL.  Hill/Waddle command a boatload of targets.

It depends on what other players are still available, but if Grier traded back to pick up at least a 3rd round pick and still was able to draft Worthy…….I would be good with that.  If Coach McDaniel feels that we need more speed at WR then I’m on board with it.

[Swampbilly]

On 1/16/2024 at 11:53 AM, TheKillerNacho said:

I can't see how Bo Nix is anything but a 2nd-day QB prospect.

Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos disagree with you LOL.  But seriously, the guy isn’t elite at everything a QB does, but he did a couple things at Oregon that were elite.  He is ridiculous against the blitz, he is an athletic runner, and he gets the ball out quick and on the spot in the short to intermediate routes.  He could be the next Brock Purdy, and for a QB needy team thats worth a first round pick.

[TheKillerNacho]

5 minutes ago, Swampbilly said:

Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos disagree with you LOL.  But seriously, the guy isn’t elite at everything a QB does, but he did a couple things at Oregon that were elite.  He is ridiculous against the blitz, he is an athletic runner, and he gets the ball out quick and on the spot in the short to intermediate routes.  He could be the next Brock Purdy, and for a QB needy team thats worth a first round pick.

Pretty big reach imo. Not as big as a reach as Penix but still. Think it speaks more to the lack of topend talent at other positions in this draft & the need for QB around the league.