2018 Draft Thread I

[49erurtaza]

john Middlekauff says theres no way niners pick McG at 9 on his live periscope stream

[Forge]

1 minute ago, 49erurtaza said:

john Middlekauff says theres no way niners pick McG at 9 on his live periscope stream

I always liked Middlekauff. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Hopefully that is the case.

Hoping for:

1. Landry

2. Smith

3. Ward

4. Minkah

5. Edmunds

Reality:

1. Smith

2. Edmunds

3. Minkah

So since it will almost certainly not be Landry, hoping we go with Smith. 

[N4L]

Why don't you think it will be Landry? 

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, N4L said:

Why don't you think it will be Landry? 

I think the smoke / fire adage comes into play at certain points with how we perceive what we view to be "likely" to happen. There was some really brief talk that we liked him, but absolutely nothing else from that aside. No mocks have us going with him either. Doesn't mean anything - wouldn't be the first time that happened, but when establishing a baseline of "likelihood" I think it comes in to play because it is the only means we have of measuring the chance of it happening. Unless one of us has a direct connection within the FO, we are reliant on the talking mouthpieces of the NFL media. 

[big9erfan]

2 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

Almost always, Adrian Peterson aside, the best RB is not the first one taken. I don't see the value in a first round RB unless you're picking in the last 10 picks and RB is your lone need.

That should not be surprsing.  There is only one RB taken first. There are dozens of other RBs taken. If the first guy has a 90 percent chance of greatness, and the next guy is 85 and there are a bunch at 83 and some more at 80 and some in the 70's, etc. It's statistically almost inevitable that one of the many will outperform the single guy thought to be the most likely to succeed. People are always suggesting "you can get a good x (any position) lower in the draft". The statement is always flawed by the obvious fact they are comparing one or two guys taken high to the sum total of all others, not to any one particular other. Sure after the fact you find out which of the many was that guy that is going to outperform a first round pick. But you don't know who that one gem is when you're picking.

The choice is never between the first RB available or you can have all of the rest as a complete group, try them all out, and get to keep the one gem. It's between the first guy or someone else lower down, some particular, single person - not all others as a group. Having said that I'm with you thogh to the extent that I believe the incremental difference in a team's successs between a great RB and a good RB is not nearly as big as at some other positions. I'll pick one lower not necessarily thinking I'll pick a better one than I could have if I picked one higher up. It's because I can live with "good" there more easily than at some other spots I'll choose to take with a high first.

[big9erfan]

2 hours ago, 49erurtaza said:

Lol if he does have McG I will be livid.

Well get prepared. Mayock now has McGlinchey as 8th on his big board.

[y2lamanaki]

1 hour ago, Ftn49 said:

Yeah, I was a huge Garrison Hearst fan too... and Ricky Watters, but he wasn't around long enough to really be cemented in my all time favorites. Same thing with Garner. Young (Steve, not Bryant though hes on a top idk list too) was my favorite niner, but I have a lot of running back love too.

My main point with the it was while I agree in positional and round value in the draft, sometimes the individual overrides it. And I actually believe that RBs are kind of having a comeback as far as draft value with the success of Leanord and and Zeke. And while I am a UGA homer too, Barkley is the best back and will instantly make his new team a lot better no matter who else they have on the roster. I think Sony, while I love him is kind of getting overvalued a bit with Kamara's success last year and Chubb is going to make some GM look pretty smart.

Oh, I didn't mean all-time favorites (though that does apply for Gore, Hearst, and Craig) - just favorites while they were here.

And I get what you're saying about RBs, and I am certainly happy teams are valuing the position again. But I don't agree that the player dictates that. As good as Zeke is, I would take any of the other studs at the top of 2016's draft and Jordan Howard in a heartbeat. Even without Jordan Howard, I would take any of Buckner, Bosa, Ramsey, etc. over Zeke. Because you can get slightly less than his production everywhere, and the chances of doing the same with a pass rusher, DT, or CB are just so much lower. 

(Agree with you on Chubb, and I think Guice will have a better career than Barkley, whom I think will still have a great career).

[49erurtaza]

Just now, big9erfan said:

Well get prepared. Mayock now has McGlinchey as 8th on his big board.

if he has him mocked to us at 9 im going to guess hes our pick tomorrow. that would be 5 well known media members in the passed day to have McG mocked to us out of no where. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

I love how these draft experts move players on their big board the day or two before the draft as if they aren't doing it because of what they are hearing inside league sources lol. So you have one guy ranked say 25th throughout the draft process but all of a sudden he jumps to #9? What changed in your evaluations from then to now? Hilarious.....

[big9erfan]

1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Maiocco just mocked us McGlinchey and mentioned again the Niners are reluctant to give Brown a long term deal. 

Welp, get ready fellas, it's gonna happen…… 

I've been so excited about all the guys everyone has mentioned - up until now. We'd be spending a high first rounder to get a guy that is not even an upgrade. Sure we have contract considertaions. But I want this draft to be about making the team better.  This does absolutely zero to make us better. In fact unless we trade Brown, which I assume we would try to do if we took McG, then the rookie wouldn't even play much as he learns behind Brown. If we took McG and then tried to trade Brown I assume we would get very little for him. So we would replace a really good RT with a rookie and then maybe add an extra 4th or low 3rd. Bah! Give any of the guys that anyone here has put in their mock for us.

[big9erfan]

1 hour ago, 49erurtaza said:

Reading Matt's mock tho it made it sound like his was a guess and not that he had insider info. Also Matt doesn't really study draft eligible players so he's not aware that McG isn't a fit.

Matt Barrows is another local writer that gets it right pretty often. He's not predicting who we'll take, but here is who his draft crush is

http://www.sacbee.com/sports/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/article209698199.html

[big9erfan]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

It's poor value overall to boot. I have no issues with McGlinchey as a first round pick. I never did a formal top 100 or anything this year, but if I did, no way he's in the top 20...he's probably in the 25 range. To take that number 9 is just horrific value. Even if I'm not sold on Brown getting a contract, if we aren't going to trade him, I'll take Christian in round 3, sit him for most of the year and groom him and take the Terron Armstead route. There are legitimate top 10 prospects in this draft who also fill enormous needs. 

Where do you have Landry and Davenport because if we're "reaching" I'd rather it be for an edge rusher.

[y2lamanaki]

I think people have always underrated McGlinchey, and I believe he is a top 10-15 prospect in this draft.

And, I don't want him, because I don't see the system fit. But- if Shanny says he is a fit, then I will trust his judgement over mine. But that is definitely my second least favorite outcome suggested at #9 (next to Davenport).

[big9erfan]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

Posted in the draft forum. Maybe Rosen isn't the slider after all...

I was re-watching some film of him yesterday.  Putting aside durability and questions of how long he'll want to play football, the guy is a great young QB.  He's got skills that Kap never developed in all his years in the league. I think purely for where he is now in his career he's better than the other guys. He doesn't have Allen's armstrength, but his arm is plenty good. But I saw him over and over go to his second or third read. You could actuially see him surveying the filed and moving from one guy to the next - smoothly, quickly, and instinctively. He's as accurate as any QB in the draft, maybe more so. He also looks off defenders.  If you watch his tape you can see him subtely move d-backs by looking one way before turning and throwing another way., or even just looking short and then going for the deep cross.  He has elite aniticipation and throws guys opon better than a whole bunch of NFL QBs. He throws a beautiful endzone fade, and his back shoulder throws are way beyond his years. If you can get pas the possibility he may be hurt a lot or have a short career there's no reason I can see to think any of the other QBs is better than him.