2018 Draft Thread I

[NcFinest9erFan]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pff-2018-nfl-mock-draft-2?utm_content=bufferf7b19&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=nfl 

 

interesting mock draft.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

2 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pff-2018-nfl-mock-draft-2?utm_content=bufferf7b19&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=nfl 

 

interesting mock draft.

I already posted the link on the previous page.

[NcFinest9erFan]

35 minutes ago, PapaShogun said:

I already posted the link on the previous page.

ah. ignore this post then....... 

[Chrissooner49er]

I don't know...Chubb may be somewhat similar to Solomon Thomas in that he graded out higher vs. the Run than the Pass. I would rather go for these prospects in this order: Nelson, Smith, Ward at this point. Especially if we get the 'Ansah' to our pass rush woes in Ziggy! 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, Chrissooner49er said:

I don't know...Chubb may be somewhat similar to Solomon Thomas in that he graded out higher vs. the Run than the Pass. I would rather go for these prospects in this order: Nelson, Smith, Ward at this point. Especially if we get the 'Ansah' to our pass rush woes in Ziggy! 

This has actually been my issue with Chubb for the most part as well. Seems way too similar to what we already have all around - not sure that he's the pass rushing LEO that we need. I think he may be more suited for that Big DE position

[NcFinest9erFan]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000908233/article/jeremiah-mock-draft-10-browns-jets-fins-redskins-take-qb?campaign=tw-cf-sf179709652-sf179709652&sf179709652=1&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

 

thoughts?

 

edit: 

NFL Media Analyst Daniel Jeremiah compares Virginia Tech junior LB Tremaine Edmunds to Minnesota Viking linebacker Anthony Barr.

Edmunds (6'4/240) has gotten rave reviews all season, and comparing him to a three-time Pro Bowl player like Barr isn't darning with faint praise. On the contrary based on the write-up by Jeremiah. "Edmunds is an elite athlete and he has unique height/length for an off-the-ball linebacker," he writes. "He reminds me so much of Barr coming out of UCLA. Both guys fit in any system and can play inside or outside. I think Edmunds will be a superstar at the next level.

[big9erfan]

14 hours ago, rudyZ said:

I think we should go for the guy who has the best chance of becoming a good football player. And out of a small group of similarly graded players, objectively, there will always be someone your GM, HC, head of scouting, or whoever, will pound the table for, and will convince the others to get on board. Group all prospects in the draft, in groups of five or ten, and in all likelihood, there's always one that I, or you, or any personnel man in the league, will like more than the others. I really don't believe in "these prospects are pretty much the same and have equal chances of being good". In a group, there's always at least one guy whose chances are higher to succeed, and a GM's job is to find that guy. Not just gamble on any guy, hoping he's the one.

Year 3 of this discussion and we still disagree. That's fine. 

I disagree with the black bolded statements. I believe there is no such guy who objectively has the "best chance of becoming a good football player"  I believe no scout, talent evaluator, or GM can know which guy has the" highest chance to succeed". If that were the case drafting success would be way, way higher than it is. That's the crux of our difference. There are only estimates of success. I believe any GM who fails to acknowledge that there is a large degree of inaccuracy in his estimates of talent is making a big mistake.   I think what you are saying is exactly one of the problems that many GMs have.  Evidence shows conclusively, I think, that they are nowhere near good enough in their judgement to ignore need when picking players. They are so wrong, so often, that it is pure arrogance on their part to ignore their team's needs. Is it realistic to think that there is anyone out there, even the best of talent evaluators, that can definitively tell us if Ward will become a better CB than Smith will be at LB? Or Chubb as an edge rusher?  I don't think so. I mean there are people who think they can.  But draft after draft after draft proves them wrong. From the huge number of misses every year the one thing a GM ought to know with certainlty is that he cannot possibly be 100% accurate in his estimate of players, and that therefore he cannot know which of two players he has rated about equally  will actually have a better career than the other. That's why he should choose "Best Player Available That Fills a Need". BPATFN not merely BPA.

I need to provide my usual disclaimer that none of this is meant to imply a team should reach for a player, or take a lower rated guy just to fill a need.  I am saying that there are lots of instances where absolutely no one on the face of the earth can tell the difference in probability of succsss between two players, and that trying to do that is a mistake.  Look at all the trade ups that Baalke made to get "his guy".  How often did that guy turn out to be better than other guys available around the same time? Nor am I saying that scouting is useless.  Assuming you're taking an edge rusher you need to determine whether you want Chubb or Key, or whether you want Ward or Jackson at CB or whether maybe fitzpatrick would be a better corner than either of them.  And of course you need to know that you rank, for example, Ward as a CB and Nelson as a G and Chubb as an edge rusher about equally. In that case you would know that each has a similar chance of success and therefore you can pick the one you believe will provide the most value to your team.

 

[big9erfan]

3 hours ago, Chrissooner49er said:

I don't know...Chubb may be somewhat similar to Solomon Thomas in that he graded out higher vs. the Run than the Pass. I would rather go for these prospects in this order: Nelson, Smith, Ward at this point. Especially if we get the 'Ansah' to our pass rush woes in Ziggy! 

I'm 100% on board with getting Ansah and Nelson. Takes care of our two biggest needs, IMHO.  If Nelson's gone I'd have to think about Smith vs Ward.

[big9erfan]

12 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000908233/article/jeremiah-mock-draft-10-browns-jets-fins-redskins-take-qb?campaign=tw-cf-sf179709652-sf179709652&sf179709652=1&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

 

thoughts?

 

edit: 

NFL Media Analyst Daniel Jeremiah compares Virginia Tech junior LB Tremaine Edmunds to Minnesota Viking linebacker Anthony Barr.

Edmunds (6'4/240) has gotten rave reviews all season, and comparing him to a three-time Pro Bowl player like Barr isn't darning with faint praise. On the contrary based on the write-up by Jeremiah. "Edmunds is an elite athlete and he has unique height/length for an off-the-ball linebacker," he writes. "He reminds me so much of Barr coming out of UCLA. Both guys fit in any system and can play inside or outside. I think Edmunds will be a superstar at the next level.

Edmunds ahead of Smith eh? Interesting.  First mock I've seen that gives us what I would think of as a "surprise pick".

[big9erfan]

4 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

 

oops, double post

[Forge]

13 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000908233/article/jeremiah-mock-draft-10-browns-jets-fins-redskins-take-qb?campaign=tw-cf-sf179709652-sf179709652&sf179709652=1&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

 

thoughts?

 

edit: 

NFL Media Analyst Daniel Jeremiah compares Virginia Tech junior LB Tremaine Edmunds to Minnesota Viking linebacker Anthony Barr.

Edmunds (6'4/240) has gotten rave reviews all season, and comparing him to a three-time Pro Bowl player like Barr isn't darning with faint praise. On the contrary based on the write-up by Jeremiah. "Edmunds is an elite athlete and he has unique height/length for an off-the-ball linebacker," he writes. "He reminds me so much of Barr coming out of UCLA. Both guys fit in any system and can play inside or outside. I think Edmunds will be a superstar at the next level.

There are a lot of people who absolutely love Edmunds. I don't love him as much as Smith, but he may be a little more balanced for the next level - I think that Smith is almost exclusively a WILL in our set up. 

[Geek]

I could get behind Edmunds. He's got all the physical tools and then some you would want out of your linebackers. He can also do a decent job rushing the passer.  He could play some MIKE and SAM letting Foster freewheel at WILL like he should be. On top of this, he's only turning 20 in May so there's a lot of upside to develop with him. If Nelson is off the board and we lose that coin toss I could see it happening. I like him more than any of the corners at pick 9/10 at least.

[John232]

Watched some Sutton highlight reels again. Fundamentally, the guy has some flaws that need to get coached up. But he and Cobbs appear to be head and shoulders above the other guys i've seen when it comes to catching through heavy contact, RAC, and being able to adjust to balls in the air. His route running doesn't seem crisp and he body catches a lot, but with some coaching he could become really good. The physical skills are there and they regularly appear in his college film. I wouldn't want him at 10, but if we trade back into the 20's and pick him up, i'd be ok with it. 

[big9erfan]

47 minutes ago, John232 said:

Watched some Sutton highlight reels again. Fundamentally, the guy has some flaws that need to get coached up. But he and Cobbs appear to be head and shoulders above the other guys i've seen when it comes to catching through heavy contact, RAC, and being able to adjust to balls in the air. His route running doesn't seem crisp and he body catches a lot, but with some coaching he could become really good. The physical skills are there and they regularly appear in his college film. I wouldn't want him at 10, but if we trade back into the 20's and pick him up, i'd be ok with it. 

I mentioned him before, but for a lower round alternative if we're not looking to use a high pick on a receiver check out the highlights of Jaleel Scott.

[John232]

Just now, big9erfan said:

I mentioned him before, but for a lower round alternative if we're not looking to use a high pick on a receiver check out the highlights of Jaleel Scott.

Yeah. But not sure he drops very low either. This is a reallllly hard year to figure out where receivers will land. Last year, we all felt pretty comfortable early on saying that Mike Williams and Corey Davis would be first round locks. And John Ross already had a lot of momentum to where it felt like you could say he'd be in there by this time last year. 

This year  Ridley is the only sure fire first round pick. Sutton will PROBABLY be a first round pick, but if he tests/interviews awfully, I expect him to drop to the second. Kirk I expect to be a second round pick unless he tests off the charts...I have no opinion on Washington..not hugely impressed with him from what i've seen. Doesn't seem explosive and unless you have greate size, teams don't typically invest first round picks in receivers who aren't explosive. 

 

The other big receiver I see people talking about but probably dropping is Lazzard. 6'6 with good hands and knows how to use his frame..but just doesn't look like he has any real defining trait outside of his height. I still like him, but pretty firmly as a round 4+ guy from what i've seen. 

 Last year it felt like there were maybe 4 or 5 guys who could project to being good  "Red zone" guys at most. Davis, Williams, Golloday, Zay Jones and Schuster (some hated him though, distinctly remember that). This year seems the opposite, not a lot of burners, but possibly 4 or 5 big guys who may go within the first 64 picks.