OTBOT: Full first round mock draft and why making the playoffs sucks

[warfelg]

OTBOT, aka "Off Topic But On Topic", because I did a full first round mock for the first time in a long time, and it made me think of something.  Making the playoffs and having to draft in the 20's is about the worst case scenario IMO.  At about 20 this draft becomes a very flat "pick em" draft for the next 40-60ish picks.  On top of that this is a very offense top heavy draft, but "deep" at defensive positions despite the lack of top end talent.  So why does that make this the worst case scenario IMO?  We're not likely going to be in position to get the top end talent that we need at some positions because it will be gone.

So that makes me think that - maybe we should be thinking trade down at our pick.  Get either a late 1st and 3rd, or 2 2nds out of this.  The advantage this plays for us is that we need to build out a team for a future QB, and having more picks in the mid rounds of this deep draft to fill out the roster is the best thing we could do.  Because as you sit back and think of this list:

CB2 - We could do this via FA.

RT - You could find starters for 2024 in 2nd or 3rd round.

C - There's 3 guys that could be had mid-late 2nd to early 3rd.

S - There's some good depth here to be had.

ILB - I disagree with the lack of depth concerns - this draft just doesn't have to all around type that most want.

DL - I believe this draft is deep here with guys that are fit for roles rather than all around.

So here's how I have the draft falling and what it means when we get to our pick:

NYG trade up to 4 from 6 with ARI

TB trades up to 9 from 20 with CHI

DAL trades up to 23 from 30 with PIT

1 - Chi - Caleb Williams QB USC

2 - Was - Jayden Daniels QB LSU

3 - NE - Drake May QB UNC

4 - NYG - Marvin Harrison Jr WR OSU

5- LAC - Joe Alt OT ND

6 - Ari - Malik Nabers WR LSU

7 - Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT PSU

8 - Atl - Dallas Turner EDGE Bama

9 - TB - Nate Wiggins CB Clemson

10 - NYJ - Amarius Mims OT Georgia

11 - Min - JJ McCarthy QB Mich

12 - Den - Michael Penix Jr QB Wash

13 - LV - Jer'Zhan Newton DL Illinois

14 - NO - Jared Verse EDGE FSU

15 - Indy - Brock Bowers TE Georgia

16 - Sea - Chop Robinson EDGE PSU

17 - Jax - Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Bama

18 - Cin - JC Latham OT Alabama

19 - GB - Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State

20 - Chi - Rome Odunze WR Washington

21 - Ari - Laiatu Latu EDGE UCLA

22 - LAR - Terrion Arnold CB Bama

23 - Dal - Keon Coleman WR FSU

24 - Mia - Troy Fautanu OL Wash

25 - Phi - Kamari Lassiter

26 - KC - Brian Thomas Jr WR LSU

27 - Hou - Bralen Trice EDGE Wash

28 - Det - Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo

29 - Buf - Cooper DeJean CB Iowa

30 - Pit - Jordan Morgan OT Arizona

31 - SF - Graham Barton OG Duke

32 - Bal - Kinglsey Suamataia OT BYU

As for the rest of our draft:

54 - Sedrick Van Pran C Georgia

85 - Jermaine Burton WR Bama

93 - DJ James CB Auburn

122 - Cole Bishop S Utah

128 - Tommy Eichenberg LB OSU

158 - Donovan Edwards RB Michigan

198 - Shemar Turner DL Texas A&M

240 - Jordan Travis QB FSU

[rlon]

I don’t know how good Morgan’s actual length is…I’ve seen numbers but don’t know how reliable they are. Aside from that, I like the draft but think DT needs to be prioritized more than skill positions.

[mwalker]

5 hours ago, rlon said:

I don’t know how good Morgan’s actual length is…I’ve seen numbers but don’t know how reliable they are. Aside from that, I like the draft but think DT needs to be prioritized more than skill positions.

Great feet. Not elite size or length. Very good player, but not sure he's the right fit.

[jebrick]

Nice trade down.  There is more value with multiple day 2 picks once you are in the 20s.

You might end up juggling some things with Junior Colson entering the draft.  Although Steeler fans may not like taking another Wolverine ILB he might be in play in the 20s.

Plus - Big physical LB who makes tackles.  Reliable tackler.

Negatives. Not a sideline-to-sideline LB.  Has played fairly clean because of 2 excellent DTs in front of him.

Kind of like Trotter Jr.

I do not think McCarthy goes in the 1st round but YMMV

A lot of good players have opted to stay in school which tightens up the draft.  Could they take T'Vondre Sweat there?

[warfelg]

9 hours ago, mwalker said:

Great feet. Not elite size or length. Very good player, but not sure he's the right fit.

Morgan is going to get over thought on a bunch.  He was going to be the best OT last year if it weren't for the ACL.  He reminds me a ton of Slater coming out.  Good enough in the run game, a dancing bear in the pass game, uses his hands really well.

6 minutes ago, jebrick said:

Nice trade down.  There is more value with multiple day 2 picks once you are in the 20s.

You might end up juggling some things with Junior Colson entering the draft.  Although Steeler fans may not like taking another Wolverine ILB he might be in play in the 20s.

Plus - Big physical LB who makes tackles.  Reliable tackler.

Negatives. Not a sideline-to-sideline LB.  Has played fairly clean because of 2 excellent DTs in front of him.

Kind of like Trotter Jr.

I do not think McCarthy goes in the 1st round but YMMV

A lot of good players have opted to stay in school which tightens up the draft.  Could they take T'Vondre Sweat there?

Colson is a 3-4th round pick IMO.  He's VWill at best.

McCarthy is gonna go in the 1st.  Been hearing a lot of behind the scene stuff that teams are going to love.  

I don't see Sweat going in the first because he doesn't offer much in the pass rush game and these guys always slide.

[zflairway]

On 1/12/2024 at 11:46 AM, warfelg said:

OTBOT, aka "Off Topic But On Topic", because I did a full first round mock for the first time in a long time, and it made me think of something.  Making the playoffs and having to draft in the 20's is about the worst case scenario IMO.  At about 20 this draft becomes a very flat "pick em" draft for the next 40-60ish picks.  On top of that this is a very offense top heavy draft, but "deep" at defensive positions despite the lack of top end talent.  So why does that make this the worst case scenario IMO?  We're not likely going to be in position to get the top end talent that we need at some positions because it will be gone.

So that makes me think that - maybe we should be thinking trade down at our pick.  Get either a late 1st and 3rd, or 2 2nds out of this.  The advantage this plays for us is that we need to build out a team for a future QB, and having more picks in the mid rounds of this deep draft to fill out the roster is the best thing we could do.  Because as you sit back and think of this list:

CB2 - We could do this via FA.

RT - You could find starters for 2024 in 2nd or 3rd round.

C - There's 3 guys that could be had mid-late 2nd to early 3rd.

S - There's some good depth here to be had.

ILB - I disagree with the lack of depth concerns - this draft just doesn't have to all around type that most want.

DL - I believe this draft is deep here with guys that are fit for roles rather than all around.

So here's how I have the draft falling and what it means when we get to our pick:

NYG trade up to 4 from 6 with ARI

TB trades up to 9 from 20 with CHI

DAL trades up to 23 from 30 with PIT

1 - Chi - Caleb Williams QB USC

2 - Was - Jayden Daniels QB LSU

3 - NE - Drake May QB UNC

4 - NYG - Marvin Harrison Jr WR OSU

5- LAC - Joe Alt OT ND

6 - Ari - Malik Nabers WR LSU

7 - Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT PSU

8 - Atl - Dallas Turner EDGE Bama

9 - TB - Nate Wiggins CB Clemson

10 - NYJ - Amarius Mims OT Georgia

11 - Min - JJ McCarthy QB Mich

12 - Den - Michael Penix Jr QB Wash

13 - LV - Jer'Zhan Newton DL Illinois

14 - NO - Jared Verse EDGE FSU

15 - Indy - Brock Bowers TE Georgia

16 - Sea - Chop Robinson EDGE PSU

17 - Jax - Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Bama

18 - Cin - JC Latham OT Alabama

19 - GB - Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State

20 - Chi - Rome Odunze WR Washington

21 - Ari - Laiatu Latu EDGE UCLA

22 - LAR - Terrion Arnold CB Bama

23 - Dal - Keon Coleman WR FSU

24 - Mia - Troy Fautanu OL Wash

25 - Phi - Kamari Lassiter

26 - KC - Brian Thomas Jr WR LSU

27 - Hou - Bralen Trice EDGE Wash

28 - Det - Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo

29 - Buf - Cooper DeJean CB Iowa

30 - Pit - Jordan Morgan OT Arizona

31 - SF - Graham Barton OG Duke

32 - Bal - Kinglsey Suamataia OT BYU

As for the rest of our draft:

54 - Sedrick Van Pran C Georgia

85 - Jermaine Burton WR Bama

93 - DJ James CB Auburn

122 - Cole Bishop S Utah

128 - Tommy Eichenberg LB OSU

158 - Donovan Edwards RB Michigan

198 - Shemar Turner DL Texas A&M

240 - Jordan Travis QB FSU

Nabers is dope 🦴

[JustPlainNasty]

17 hours ago, jebrick said:

Nice trade down.  There is more value with multiple day 2 picks once you are in the 20s.

You might end up juggling some things with Junior Colson entering the draft.  Although Steeler fans may not like taking another Wolverine ILB he might be in play in the 20s.

Plus - Big physical LB who makes tackles.  Reliable tackler.

Negatives. Not a sideline-to-sideline LB.  Has played fairly clean because of 2 excellent DTs in front of him.

Kind of like Trotter Jr.

I do not think McCarthy goes in the 1st round but YMMV

A lot of good players have opted to stay in school which tightens up the draft.  Could they take T'Vondre Sweat there?

A guy that impresses me as a Tomlin type is Edgerin Cooper. I haven't done any notes on him but Ive watched a little tape and highlights. He's an athletic "highlight reel" type guy. His game needs evolving, but I wouldn't say he's incapable of meeting my criteria for being likable. Based off what I initially saw I'd say he's the type of LB I could potentially undervalue or get a lil jaded because he gets too much hype for what he does and media not concerned about the things he doesn't do. I could see us drafting him much higher than people are projecting when its all said and done. You have any thoughts on him at this point ?

I have been a bit intrigued by Colson, but same thing, I havent made any notes just noticed flashes when watching some players.

Edited January 14 by JustPlainNasty

[JustPlainNasty]

17 hours ago, warfelg said:

Morgan is going to get over thought on a bunch.  He was going to be the best OT last year if it weren't for the ACL.  He reminds me a ton of Slater coming out.  Good enough in the run game, a dancing bear in the pass game, uses his hands really well.

Colson is a 3-4th round pick IMO.  He's VWill at best.

McCarthy is gonna go in the 1st.  Been hearing a lot of behind the scene stuff that teams are going to love.  

I don't see Sweat going in the first because he doesn't offer much in the pass rush game and these guys always slide.

I noticed the likable things about Morgan, I did get a little flashback of me being intrigued by Andre Dillard. Haven't made notes either but as I recall the feet were pretty good and hands were decent, stays in front.  I still dont get what went south with Dillard but if I had to guess he doesnt eat & sleep football ..

I liked what I initially saw from Morgan a lot more than Mims. I feel these Georgia guys seem to have a number of bad habits, similar things head and hands. Suppose they are so much more gifted / bigger in high school that they develop bad habits or never learn good habits well and then they are starting early and leaving early whereas a guy like Morgan is probably more of a crafty veteran type with ability. 

Edited January 14 by JustPlainNasty

[43M]

Guess it depends on how free agency goes, but that draft is obviously ideal.      If they hit on those lineman, our offensive line could be set for awhile.   Only one that we would likely need to replace in the next few years would be Seumalo.

However, our offense is so bad, I think people overlook how much trouble our defense could be in in a couple years.

Cam will be 35 and I could see him retiring this offseason or next.     Ogunjobi isnt young could stand to be upgraded.    Leal is either a on his way to being a bust or doesnt fit what we do.  Im not sure.    Only DLineman I have long term hope for is Benton.

LBs are good, but for how long?    Watt is all world, but will be 30 next year.  Tack on injuries and he could slide sooner than we think.  Can Herbig develop?     Our ILBs are okay for next year probably, but they are just solid players and guys like Roberts and Alexander will be 30.    

Our secondary could be a mess.    JPJ and Minkah are locks, but beyond that....????    Peterson is serviceable and a good leader, but not sure he is worth his price tag next year.       Every other DB is JAG.  Rowe has been solid, but will be 32 next season.

I keep seeing Steeler fans say "a few decent roster moves and we could be really competitive".    Obviously, that could be true depending on what those moves are, but I think its extremely wishful thinking.  

I think this team is at least 2 or 3 good offseasons away from being a TRUE SB caliber team....and thats if A LOT of things go right.

[warfelg]

4 hours ago, 43M said:

Guess it depends on how free agency goes, but that draft is obviously ideal.      If they hit on those lineman, our offensive line could be set for awhile.   Only one that we would likely need to replace in the next few years would be Seumalo.

However, our offense is so bad, I think people overlook how much trouble our defense could be in in a couple years.

Cam will be 35 and I could see him retiring this offseason or next.     Ogunjobi isnt young could stand to be upgraded.    Leal is either a on his way to being a bust or doesnt fit what we do.  Im not sure.    Only DLineman I have long term hope for is Benton.

LBs are good, but for how long?    Watt is all world, but will be 30 next year.  Tack on injuries and he could slide sooner than we think.  Can Herbig develop?     Our ILBs are okay for next year probably, but they are just solid players and guys like Roberts and Alexander will be 30.    

Our secondary could be a mess.    JPJ and Minkah are locks, but beyond that....????    Peterson is serviceable and a good leader, but not sure he is worth his price tag next year.       Every other DB is JAG.  Rowe has been solid, but will be 32 next season.

I keep seeing Steeler fans say "a few decent roster moves and we could be really competitive".    Obviously, that could be true depending on what those moves are, but I think its extremely wishful thinking.  

I think this team is at least 2 or 3 good offseasons away from being a TRUE SB caliber team....and thats if A LOT of things go right.

The more I look at it, this FA class is kind of ideal for us to string out defense one more season.