swede700 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 On 2/23/2024 at 4:44 PM, SemperFeist said: $60m per year is going to be the new standard for QBs with this increase in cap space. But Prescott doesn't deserve that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VikeManDan Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 hour ago, swede700 said: But Prescott doesn't deserve that. Very few QBs do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SemperFeist Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 hour ago, swede700 said: But Prescott doesn't deserve that. If 23% of the cap is the going rate, then I’d say he does deserve that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) 10 minutes ago, SemperFeist said: If 23% of the cap is the going rate, then I’d say he does deserve that. If 23% of the cap is going to be the going rate, then they may as well close up shop because while the QB position is important, unless that said QB can single-handedly carry a team like Mahomes, then they aren't that important. In fact, in the 2 years prior to this last one (in which Prescott played every game), they were 5-1 without him. Take it for what it's worth, but Prescott, if he were a free agent, likely wouldn't get more than $50M in today's market. Jerry's overpaying him as it is....so it's no wonder why they've gone 5-13 in the playoffs since they last won the SB. He's a very good QB, but as far as percentage of cap-wise, he shouldn't take up much more than Kirk does, because they are the same QB, just a younger version. Edited February 26 by swede700 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SemperFeist Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 And I think you’re vastly underestimating the market. Cousins reset the market when he was a free agent in 2018. If he was 30, and hitting free agency again, he’d absolutely be looking at getting a top market contract. Just like Prescott. Getting paid in the NFL isn’t tiered based on your talent level compared to the other guy. If you're a top 12 player at your position, it’s about when you’re up to get paid. With the cap at $255M, the next guy up, which looks to be Prescott and Lawrence, are going to get the going rate. And the going rate is 23%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) 5 minutes ago, SemperFeist said: And I think you’re vastly underestimating the market. Cousins reset the market when he was a free agent in 2018. If he was 30, and hitting free agency again, he’d absolutely be looking at getting a top market contract. Just like Prescott. Getting paid in the NFL isn’t tiered based on your talent level compared to the other guy. If you're a top 12 player at your position, it’s about when you’re up to get paid. With the cap at $255M, the next guy up, which looks to be Prescott and Lawrence, are going to get the going rate. And the going rate is 23%. No, I'm vastly underestimating teams' stupidity in investing that percentage in one position, especially in QBs that can't carry teams on their own. Edited February 26 by swede700 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cearbhall Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 I hope that we all know that when a player signs a muti-year contract that averages 23% of the current year salary cap they will be unlikely to ever play a year where their yearly cap charge is 23% of the salary cap of the given year. That has never been truer than in the current cap environment where the pie is growing year-to-year at over $20MM per year -- an amount much higher than the league has grown accustomed to. The largest drivers of the cap are the CBS and TV deals. Under the previous CBA and TV deals the cap was growing at around $10MM per year. The current TV deals and CBA just increased the cap hugely. The cap may be over $300M per team in as little as two years. A five-year deal that averages $60MM per year easily might have cap hits of $30MM this year and $35MM next year when salary is again converted to a signing bonus and prorated. Perhaps the first year the salary cap hit would come in at over $60MM would be in four years. Perhaps, the percentage of the cap consumed by $60MM in four years would be under 17%. That is all somewhat academic, I admit, but I wanted to remind everyone of the mathematical reality when they are reading the number. That said, I wouldn't want to give Prescott a five year $300MM deal that guaranteed him $180MM in the first three years especially if there were rolling guarantees that locked in any of his fourth-year salary before he played out that third year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) 1 hour ago, Cearbhall said: I hope that we all know that when a player signs a muti-year contract that averages 23% of the current year salary cap they will be unlikely to ever play a year where their yearly cap charge is 23% of the salary cap of the given year. That has never been truer than in the current cap environment where the pie is growing year-to-year at over $20MM per year -- an amount much higher than the league has grown accustomed to. The largest drivers of the cap are the CBS and TV deals. Under the previous CBA and TV deals the cap was growing at around $10MM per year. The current TV deals and CBA just increased the cap hugely. The cap may be over $300M per team in as little as two years. A five-year deal that averages $60MM per year easily might have cap hits of $30MM this year and $35MM next year when salary is again converted to a signing bonus and prorated. Perhaps the first year the salary cap hit would come in at over $60MM would be in four years. Perhaps, the percentage of the cap consumed by $60MM in four years would be under 17%. That is all somewhat academic, I admit, but I wanted to remind everyone of the mathematical reality when they are reading the number. That said, I wouldn't want to give Prescott a five year $300MM deal that guaranteed him $180MM in the first three years especially if there were rolling guarantees that locked in any of his fourth-year salary before he played out that third year. Oh, I agree that the percentage of the cap will go down, since that's math. 🤣 In 2021, the Vikings spent 17.5% of the cap on QBs, 2 years later that was 10.5%...but no team in the NFL, in any given year since 2020 has even spent 20% of their cap on the QB position. Currently however, there are 3 teams that have that in Dallas (25%), Cleveland (~23%) and KC (23%). Arguably, only one of those teams warrants that situation. There are currently almost 3 tiers of %s amongst the teams. 8 teams have % upwards of 17%, 8 teams are 10-13%, and rest are 7% or lower (which obviously include a lot of those QBs still on rookie deals like Brock Purdy, or early in their second deals which are largely backloaded like Jalen Hurts). For the record, of those top 8, 5 of the 8 made the playoffs (Cardinals, Giants and Broncos did not). In the next tier, only 3 did make the playoffs (Ravens, Lions and Dolphins), which means that 6 of the bottom 16 made the playoffs (Packers, Eagles, Texans, Steelers, Bucs, 49ers). What that ultimately means, I don't know, but I thought I'd just throw that out there. 😉 Edited February 26 by swede700 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted February 27 Author Share Posted February 27 @MacReady, you've posted many times about QB's' salaries and what percentage of the team's overall cap they take up. care to read the last few posts here and tell us what your current views are? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cearbhall Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 4 hours ago, swede700 said: Currently however, there are 3 teams that have that in Dallas (25%), Cleveland (~23%) and KC (23%). Arguably, only one of those teams warrants that situation. Do you think either Dallas or Cleveland will go into the season with that percentage of the cap devoted to their QB this year? I don't. I could see KC doing it, but even they have a good chance of moving some of that number to the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 hour ago, vike daddy said: @MacReady, you've posted many times about QB's' salaries and what percentage of the team's overall cap they take up. care to read the last few posts here and tell us what your current views are? If you don’t have Patrick Mahomes, don’t pay your QB over 12% of the cap. If you do, do it all in one year and leave some years where he’s at less than 12%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cearbhall Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 hour ago, MacReady said: If you don’t have Patrick Mahomes, don’t pay your QB over 12% of the cap. If you do, do it all in one year and leave some years where he’s at less than 12%. That is just over $30MM this year. Which QBs would a team be looking at as an option in that range other than a rookie? Other than hitting on a rookie, I don't think any of the free agent QBs that would come for that price offer a chance to win a championship. Sounds like a cheap veteran starter and bringing in a young gun while hoping to hit on the young gun is the way to go. I can't say that I disagree with that strategy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CriminalMind Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Do you want to get to the playoffs and lose (with high certainly) or have a chance to compete in the future (with low certainly)? If you like the first, go with Kirk and pay him the “going top 10 rate”. It you like the second, walk away from Kirk, and figure out a rookie to try and roll with. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 13 hours ago, Cearbhall said: Do you think either Dallas or Cleveland will go into the season with that percentage of the cap devoted to their QB this year? Yes. Dallas really can't do much, especially with Dak's stance on his extension, to get that significantly lower unless they plan on making it significantly worse for themselves. And Watson's contract is guaranteed...they could restructure it to free up space, but there's still 3 yrs left on that deal...they'll both be able to lower it a little this year, but they've hamstrung themselves. At least they both currently have good defenses, but we'll see how long that lasts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted February 27 Author Share Posted February 27 With over $255 million to work with, the 32 front offices can start strategizing how they will make their money work for them going into this season. Dead cap is money that has already been paid to the players but hasn’t hit the salary cap yet. This manifests itself either with guaranteed money that hasn’t been paid out and is still due or a signing bonus having been pushed out into future or void years. As teams sort out if and how they use their franchise tags and other potential cap-friendly avenues, we rank the dead money spent for all 32 teams from least to most. Data courtesy of Over The Cap as of Sunday, February 25th 32. Seattle Seahawks: $237,492 (<1% of 2024 cap) 31. Jacksonville Jaguars: $806,259 (<1%) 30. Cincinnati Bengals: $1,775,689 (<1%) 29. New Orleans Saints: $2,840,956 (1.11%) 28. Atlanta Falcons: $3,023,102 (1.18%) 27. Minnesota Vikings: $3,508,541 (1.37%) 26. Kansas City Chiefs: $3,857,097 (1.51%) 25. Los Angeles Rams: $3,902,765 (1.53%) 24. Philadelphia Eagles: $7,278,900 (2.85%) 23. Indianapolis Colts: $8,363,623 (3.27%) 22. Baltimore Ravens: $9,096,530 (3.56%) 21. San Francisco 49ers: $9,145,613 (3.58%) 20. Carolina Panthers: $9,230,998 (3.61%) 19. Pittsburgh Steelers: $9,539,633 (3.73%) 18. Denver Broncos: $9,963,124 (3.90%) 17. Chicago Bears: $10,539,071 (4.13%) 16. New England Patriots: $11,707,888 (4.58%) 15. Washington Commanders: $11,933,514 (4.66%) 14. Buffalo Bills: $12,221,717 (4.78%) 13. Houston Texans: $13,778,652 (5.39%) 12. Arizona Cardinals: $14,151,579 (5.54%) 11. Dallas Cowboys: $14,771,496 (5.78%) 10. Cleveland Browns: $14,972,782 (5.86%) 9. Las Vegas Raiders: $15,002,160 (5.87%) 8.Green Bay Packers: $15,118,132 (5.92%) 7. Miami Dolphins: $16,809,238 (6.58%) 6. New York Giants $17,542,850 (6.87%) 5. New York Jets: $18,331,968 (7.18%) 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $21,888,078 (8.57%) 3. Detroit Lions: $23,054,507 (9.03%) 2. Los Angeles Chargers: $24,556,666 (9.61%) 1. Tennessee Titans: $31,850,988 (12.47%) https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/lists/2024-nfl-free-agency-ranking-all-32-teams-dead-cap-space-minnesota-vikings/?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2ZVVzyIra70ecmIDIRDF-obbZpjK0L3tYVOx_I0uC8lJFffQVI6s1bsWM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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