detfan782004 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Manny/Patrick said: Anyone catch before Purdy threw the TD to aiyuk Fox was crediting him with a TD It was because of the 51 yard play. They credited that as TD before it was deemed he was down. Then he got the TD anyhow on that small TD toss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicfre2011 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 hours ago, Louis Friend said: The decision didn’t fail, Josh Reynolds hands failed. The decision was the right one, his player dropped the ball that hit him in the hands. The decision was right irregardless that it failed. But don't you have to consider the possible outcomes when you are making the decision? Every decision as a head coach is a calculated risk and the only "good" decisions is the one that help contribute to a favorable outcome. I guess that I really don't get the decision to forego a field goal attempt and add precious points on the second failed 4th down where the 49ers went up by 10, which was the nail in the coffin. If Campbell has zero faith in his kicker then I can understand the decision, but to get within 3 points then and have to roll with the odds of getting an onside kick and then sending out your kicker for a game winning (zero faith in?), seems like you are rolling with horrible odds. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jameson_Neat Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 10 minutes ago, nicfre2011 said: But don't you have to consider the possible outcomes when you are making the decision? Every decision as a head coach is a calculated risk and the only "good" decisions is the one that help contribute to a favorable outcome. I guess that I really don't get the decision to forego a field goal attempt and add precious points on the second failed 4th down where the 49ers went up by 10, which was the nail in the coffin. If Campbell has zero faith in his kicker then I can understand the decision, but to get within 3 points then and have to roll with the odds of getting an onside kick and then sending out your kicker for a game winning (zero faith in?), seems like you are rolling with horrible odds. Campbell has zero faith in Badgley as Badgley has proven to be an unreliable distance kicker in his career. Campbell clearly trusts his offensive players and they've rewarded him by converting on an insanely high amount of those situations. Frankly, the off-the-wall call would have been the FGA. Every bit of information at DCs disposal was a clear go. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detfan782004 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Jameson_Neat said: Campbell has zero faith in Badgley as Badgley has proven to be an unreliable distance kicker in his career. Campbell clearly trusts his offensive players and they've rewarded him by converting on an insanely high amount of those situations. Frankly, the off-the-wall call would have been the FGA. Every bit of information at DCs disposal was a clear go. So it was more about poor quality kicker than analytics? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, detfan782004 said: So it was more about poor quality kicker than analytics? I mean, poor quality kickers would be baked into the analytics model? That's a variable that is accounted for. Like, this isn't even all that crazy. The teams performance on 4th and short this year is better than the career performance of the kicker from said distance. This isn't weird and crazy. People can disagree with it, but some things are just what they are. Though to be clear, Campbell doesn't mention "analytics" as a basis for his decisions often and there were some inconsistent decisions with regards to what he does and when from a model perspective. People tend to lump any aggressive 4th down decision into "analytics". For all I know, he's just going by his gut. The story is that he likes being aggressive because when he worked with Sean Payton, he saw how scared defenses would get on 4th down and that's what he wanted to do. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicfre2011 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Jameson_Neat said: Campbell has zero faith in Badgley as Badgley has proven to be an unreliable distance kicker in his career. Campbell clearly trusts his offensive players and they've rewarded him by converting on an insanely high amount of those situations. Frankly, the off-the-wall call would have been the FGA. Every bit of information at DCs disposal was a clear go. Ok....yet DC was going to have to rely on recovering the onside kick AND still trot Badgley out there for a game-tying kick. It's like the worst possible chain reaction took place after that decision. Trust me, I was really rooting for the Lions....I would have loved to have seen that team and fanbase make that climb. I even like DC. I just think when you get in the playoffs you have to have a different mindset....more calculating than...."damn the torpedoes!". One thing that I believe is real is momentum....it can swing the other way, real quick. It is tangible. The crowd was alive....the 49ers were energized. That is another dynamic that needs to be considered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detfan782004 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, Forge said: I mean, poor quality kickers would be baked into the analytics model? That's a variable that is accounted for. Like, this isn't even all that crazy. The teams performance on 4th and short this year is better than the career performance of the kicker from said distance. This isn't weird and crazy. People can disagree with it, but some things are just what they are. Though to be clear, Campbell doesn't mention "analytics" as a basis for his decisions often and there were some inconsistent decisions with regards to what he does and when from a model perspective. People tend to lump any aggressive 4th down decision into "analytics". For all I know, he's just going by his gut. The story is that he likes being aggressive because when he worked with Sean Payton, he saw how scared defenses would get on 4th down and that's what he wanted to do. I concur. Many fans are defending it because analytics said so. But honestly the analytics are about even. So it's more about the lack of a kicker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jameson_Neat Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 10 minutes ago, Forge said: I mean, poor quality kickers would be baked into the analytics model? That's a variable that is accounted for. Like, this isn't even all that crazy. The teams performance on 4th and short this year is better than the career performance of the kicker from said distance. This isn't weird and crazy. People can disagree with it, but some things are just what they are. Though to be clear, Campbell doesn't mention "analytics" as a basis for his decisions often and there were some inconsistent decisions with regards to what he does and when from a model perspective. People tend to lump any aggressive 4th down decision into "analytics". For all I know, he's just going by his gut. The story is that he likes being aggressive because when he worked with Sean Payton, he saw how scared defenses would get on 4th down and that's what he wanted to do. Campbell said last year he doesn't trust his kicking game with anything over 43 or 45 yards outdoors. Badgley was the kicker at the time. I don't think he's had anyone reliable enough to change his mind in that time. Team really good at converting from that distance, not good at kicking from that distance and the numbers also say to go that route. I'm not seeing where the confusion lies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaidersAreOne Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detfan782004 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, RaidersAreOne said: Right so their inability to address the kicking game is what doomed them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jameson_Neat Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, detfan782004 said: Right so their inability to address the kicking game is what doomed them Maybe? We still don't know what Campbell would do with a better kicking game as he's never had one. I'd guess he might move that 43-45 outdoors to 48-50 and still go a lot more than most. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detfan782004 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Jameson_Neat said: Maybe? We still don't know what Campbell would do with a better kicking game as he's never had one. I'd guess he might move that 43-45 outdoors to 48-50 and still go a lot more than most. I'm just tired of hearing based on analytics because honestly the kicker sucked Still think kicking FG could have been justified but they had a great season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Friend Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, nicfre2011 said: But don't you have to consider the possible outcomes when you are making the decision? Every decision as a head coach is a calculated risk and the only "good" decisions is the one that help contribute to a favorable outcome. I guess that I really don't get the decision to forego a field goal attempt and add precious points on the second failed 4th down where the 49ers went up by 10, which was the nail in the coffin. If Campbell has zero faith in his kicker then I can understand the decision, but to get within 3 points then and have to roll with the odds of getting an onside kick and then sending out your kicker for a game winning (zero faith in?), seems like you are rolling with horrible odds. The Lions were 15 of 20 (75%) at converting 4th and 3 or fewer in the regular season, plus 2 of 2 in the postseason. Michael Badgley was 9 of 20 (45%) in his career from 48+ yards. Worst among high-volume kickers in NFL history. Totally good with how Dan Campbell handled that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Friend Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, detfan782004 said: I'm just tired of hearing based on analytics because honestly the kicker sucked Still think kicking FG could have been justified but they had a great season But it plays into the analytics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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