MKnight82 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I wanted to make a fair assessment of the current players on the roster in order to see how bad the talent level really is. To do this I used a 10 point rating system, with talent being the first 5 points and age/contract being the other 5 points. The idea being that the ideal player is a very talented one that is young and cheap. Here’s the rating scale: Talent Level (Up to 5 points) 5 points – Pro bowl player 4 points – Quality starter 3 points – Borderline starter 2 points – Career backup 1 point – Fringe roster player 0 points – Shouldn’t be on an NFL roster Age/Cost (Up to 5 points) 5 points – Young player who is underpaid 4 points – Expensive veteran talent who is worth the money 3 points – Paid appropriate amount for age/talent 2 points – Age is nearing decline in talent level, or pending FA, or slightly overpaid youngster 1 point – Seriously overpaid for talent level 0 points – Just cut the guy and take the cap Alright that’s the system I’m rolling with. I’m going to go through every position on the roster and evaluate each player, I’m generally going to stick to the top 53ish guys and ignore random dudes at the bottom of the roster I’ve never heard of. I think with this system anyone who has 6 total points or higher is worth building around and anyone below that level is replacement level. I see the values ranked like this: 10-9 Points: Long term building blocks 8-7 Points: Quality players worth keeping around for now 6-5 Points: Replacement level players 4 or under: Time to move on immediately I’ve listed players current age (I didn’t feel like figuring out each player’s age for next year) and what their cap amount is for next season. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ QUARTERBACKS QBs: Sam Howell, Jacoby Brissett QB Sam Howell (23 y.o., $1,075,400 2024 cap) – Borderline starter (3) + Young player who is underpaid (5) = 8 points - Howell was paid $960,400 to start at QB for Washington this year (he’s the 36th highest paid player on our roster). Our longsnapper makes more money than our current starting QB. Regardless of your thoughts on Howell that is criminally underpaid for a QB capable of making some starts. He has another 2 years of cost controlled seasons on his contract where he will stay below $1.2 mil each year, but doesn’t have a 5th year option that first round picks have. It is hard to imagine Howell not playing out the rest of his rookie contract in Washington unless someone wants to trade for him. QB Jacoby Brissett (31 y.o., Pending FA) – Career backup (2) + Pending FA / Older (2) = 4 points - Brissett is a journeyman backup with a decent reputation but he’s aging and at $8 mil this season was kind of expensive for a backup. We still don’t know who will run the offense but I can’t see Brissett coming back. QB Conclusion – Howell will be here next year but we don’t have anything else at the position. If a young QB is drafted high than Howell will likely be the veteran on the roster than helps the young rookie. If they think they need a veteran QB from the new OC’s system maybe we carry 3 QBs next year. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RUNNING BACKS HBs: Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson, Chris Rodriguez HB Brian Robinson (24 y.o., $1,375,883 2024 cap) – Borderline starter (3) + Paid appropriately (3) = 6 points - I think Robinson is a solid RB who has surprised this year as a more versatile player than I think most of us expected as he contributed more in the passing game this year. That being said, he still only has 664 rushing yards on the season with a pedestrian 4.2 ypc. Yes he would produce more if he had a competent O.C. who would run the ball more, but he just looks like a borderline starter to me. I don’t think Robinson is in need of an immediate upgrade but I also think he would ideally be better as a 2nd RB to spell a more talented starter. HB Antonio Gibson (25 y.o., Pending FA) – Career backup (2) + Pending FA (2) = 4 points - He fumbles too often to be a full time starter, and despite having a reputation as a pass catching back Robinson outperformed him in the passing game as well. He just doesn’t seem to have the vision to follow blocks and make the correct cuts a RB needs to do. He’s also a pending FA. It makes no sense to me to bring him back. Honestly I think he will bounce around the league a bit then be out of the league in a year or two. HB Chris Rodriguez (23 y.o., $959,422 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Paid appropriately (3) = 5 points - Rodriguez has looked ok at times during his rookie year but he hasn’t had many opportunities. He’s a cost effective bottom of the roster backup at one of the least valuable position groups in the NFL. That is his role. HB Conclusion – We have a starting RB in Robinson who on a good team would likely be a backup and then some fringe roster depth behind him. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TIGHT ENDS TEs: Logan Thomas, John Bates, Cole Turner, Curtis Hodges TE Logan Thomas (30 y.o., $8,315,000 2024 cap) – Borderline starter (3) + Aging/Slightly overpaid (2) = 5 points - Thomas’ age has begun to show as he’s not quite the athlete he was a few years ago. He’s currently 17th for receiving yards amongst TEs and he’s the 16th highest paid TE in the league. The offense under O.C. moron should be sending a lot of looks his way so its disappointing his numbers haven’t be higher this year. I also don’t expect his game to age well as his ability has always been mostly built on athleticism and not technique. He will likely be seriously overpaid for what he brings to the table next year so I think he’s a likely cap casualty, but its possible because we have so much cap already and the fact that he only has 1 more year on his deal that they bring him back as a veteran presence in the TE room. Either way I don’t think he can be depended on to be the starter next year and is a fringe roster player. TE John Bates (26 y.o., $1,235,605 2024 cap) – Career backup (2) + Paid appropriately (3) = 5 points - At 26 years old Bates would have broken out by now if he was going to. He’s a solid blocker who can contribute a catch here or there but doesn’t offer much beyond that. I would imagine he plays out his rookie contract (he has 1 more year) then likely moves on. I don’t think he will be worth the money to extend after than and therefore don’t see him as a long term building block for the team. TE Cole Turner (23 y.o., $1,069,720 cap) – Career backup (2) + Paid appropriately (3) = 5 points - I think Turner has shown more upside than Bates at this point but maybe isn’t as consistent in the run game. The issue with that is if you aren’t talented enough as a pass catcher to be a starter, but aren’t talented enough as a blocker to be a primary backup what exactly is Turner’s long term role? Like Bates at this point I think Turner plays out his rookie contract then we likely move on. I will say if one of the two were to suddenly have a breakout year next year I would lean towards Turner being the one that does it over Bates. TE Curtis Hodges (24 y.o., $993,334 2024 cap) – Fringe roster player (1) + Paid appropriately (3) = 4 points - Not a lot to say other than I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t make the 53 next year. TE Conclusion – We don’t have a legitimate starter on the roster heading into next season but we have solid depth players in Bates and Turner. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ WIDE RECEIVERS WRs: Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, Jamison Crowder, Byron Pringle WR Terry McLaurin (28 y.o., $24,100,000 2024 cap) – Pro Bowl Starter (5) + Expensive Vet but Worth It (4) = 9 points - McLaurin is one of our best players but he will also be the most expensive player on the roster next year. He had a down year with moron O.C. but I still think he’s worth it. WR Jahan Dotson (23 y.o., $4,104,147 2024 cap) – Borderline Starter (3) + Paid appropriately (3) = 6 points - Dotson has played two seasons, with his rookie year showing a lot of promise and a serious sophomore slump in year 2. Its hard to evaluate him with moron O.C. here but I definitely have concerns. Right now I think he has to be considered a borderline #2 WR but possible #3 WR at best type of player. If he’s going to be worth using his 5 year option on, much less an extension after his rookie deal, he’s going to have to show more than he has to date. So its difficult to judge whether he’s a long term building block but at 23 years old and with 2-3 more years of cost controlled contract he will most likely be on the roster for several more years. WR Curtis Samuel (27 y.o., Pending FA) – Borderline Starter (3) + Pending FA (2) = 5 points - I would say Samuel is a solid #3 WR but unfortunately he’s the 25th highest paid WR in the NFL this year. I would imagine he’s going to look for another contract in the $10ish per year range and I just don’t see him being worth that price. I also expect him to look for a fresh start after all of the turmoil here the past few years. I don’t expect Samuel to be on the roster on the next year and as such he is not a long term building block for us. WR Dyami Brown (24 y.o., $1,573,090 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Paid appropriately (3) = 5 points - You would think with his college QB as the starter here Brown would have broken out this year. Instead he has continued to be one of our most inconsistent performers at the position. He has one more year on his rookie deal but I can’t see him earning a contract extension unless he seriously breaks out next year. WR Jamison Crowder (30 y.o., Pending FA cap) – Career Backup (2) + Pending FA (2) = 4 points - Crowder showed flashes at times this year and honestly his mini resurgence was one of the only positive storylines the entire season. However, with a new regime and him being a pending FA I just can’t see him coming back. WR Byron Pringle, Dax Milne, WR Davion Davis, WR Mitchell Tinsley – N/A. - Maybe these guys get a camp invite but none should be seen as building blocks at this point. WR Conclusion – McLaurin is good but is coming off of one of his worst seasons as a pro. He’s also starting to age and is expensive. I could see him being utilized as our young QB’s best friend or trade bait. We don’t have a legitimate #2 option on the roster with Samuels hitting FA and Dotson struggles. Our depth here is pretty weak too. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OFFENSIVE TACKLES OTs: Charles Leno, Andrew Wylie, Cornelius Lucas, Trent Scott OT Charles Leno (32 y.o., $15,530,000 2024 cap) – Borderline Starter (3) + Paid appropriately (3) = 6 points - Leno has been solid and olineman generally play decently into their mid 30s. People may think his cap hit is high, but he’s actually the 25th AAV tackle in the league which is extremely reasonable. I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t be on the roster next year. OT Andrew Wylie (29 y.o., $9,416,666 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Seriously Overpaid (1) = 3 points - Wylie was a disaster this year. If we designate him a post June 1st cut we will save $4.25 mil (but incur $5.16 in dead cap). We need to just move on from him I don’t see him as a salvageable player. OT Cornelius Lucas (32 y.o., Pending FA) – Career Backup (2) + Pending FA (2) = 4 points - Lucas has been solid depth during the Rivera regime but he’ll be 33 years old by the start of next season and I expect us to bring in multiple new players at the OT position. I think its time to move on. OT Trent Scott – N/A OT Conclusion – Leno can be a bridge starter for a year or two but we have literally nothing else at the position. We need to add multiple new players at this position during the offseason and it would make sense to address it in both the draft and FA. I know the previous regime had Braeden Daniels practicing as a LT but everyone predraft thought Daniels would be a Guard in the NFL and the prior coaching staff was notorious for playing players at the wrong position. I don’t think Daniels is an option at tackle. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OFFENSIVE GUARDS OGs: Sam Cosmi, Chris Paul, Saahdiq Charles, Braeden Daniels OG Sam Cosmi (25 y.o., $2,108,135 2024 cap) – Borderline Starter (3) + Paid appropriately (3) = 6 points - I think I have a lower opinion of Cosmi than most. It seems like the general opinion is that he’s a really good starter at RG. I acknowledge that he is generally good in pass protection and that the modern league requires olineman to do that a lot. But I don’t think he gets much push in the run game and is IMO one on of the reasons we struggle to run the ball. That isn’t entirely his fault, we drafted a finesse pass blocking LT and then made him play RT then Guard. Although he’s only 25, he’s entering the final year of his rookie contract and will require an extension that will make him expensive. I’ll be curious to see what the new front office thinks of him and whether they think he’s worthy of an extension. OG Chris Paul (25 y.o., $1,011,111 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Paid appropriately (3) = 5 points - Paul isn’t amazing but for a 7th round pick he’s provided a pretty solid return on that investment. His best role is as a backup/spot starter, not a long term solution at the position. He has 2 years remaining on his rookie contract and unless the new regime has a massive difference in blocking scheme I expect him to be here as depth for the next two years. OG Saahdiq Charles (24 y.o., Pending FA) – Fringe Roster Player (1) + Pending FA (2) = 3 points - Charles waited 3 years to finally get a shot at staring and didn’t do anything to prove he’s worth bringing back. I actually liked the pick when we took him in the 4th round, LT prospect from a big time program that could switch to Guard sounded like a sound strategy. Idk if the coaches let him down or if he just doesn’t have his head straight on his shoulders but he was never able to put it all together. He’s still only 24 years old so maybe he salvages his career elsewhere. I think he needs a change of scenery I can’t see him coming back. OG Braeden Daniels (23 y.o., $983,613 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Paid appropriately (3) = 5 points - Right now I’m projecting Daniels as a career backup at Guard that’ll likely play out his rookie contract here then move on. If we get anything more from him than that it’ll be a homerun but its hard to see that when he didn’t play at all his rookie year. OG Conclusion – This is a position that I feel like we have depth at but we’re lacking legitimate starters. Cosmi is one starter but he’s a pending free agent next year, and we really have no starter at LG. I expect them to ride with Cosmi at RG this year but will need to bring in a new starter at LG. Other than that I think our depth is solid, this isn’t a position we should spend more mid round picks on this year IMO (we need someone who can start immediately, not a high upside guy that needs more grooming we have several of those already). LG should likely be addressed in free agency or with a high 2nd round pick. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CENTERS OCs: Nick Gates, Tyler Larsen, Ricky Stromberg OC Nick Gates (28 y.o., $5,236,083 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Seriously Overpaid (1) = 3 points - The Gates signing was even worse than the Wylie signing. It didn’t even make sense at the time, the guy has an extensive injury history and had mostly been a backup his entire career yet they paid him to come in and start at Center. Baffling decision. He needs to be cut, he isn’t good and is making too much money. Cutting him doesn’t really save money, a post June 1st cut saves us only $333k with a $5.3 mil dead cap hit, we just need him gone because he sucks. He was so bad he was benched by a coaching staff that refused to bench anyone. OC Tyler Larsen (32 y.o., Pending FA) – Career Backup (2) + Pending FA (2) = 4 points - Larsen has been solid when he’s been here but he’s aging and a pending free agent. It seems like there are those journeyman guys who work out for certain coaches but then just move on when the new staff comes in. That’s Larsen. OC Ricky Stromberg (23 y.o., $1,205,474 2024 cap) – Borderline Starter (3) + Paid appropriately (3) = 6 points - I’m not sure what we have in Stromberg. He supposedly was a pretty good Center prospect but he couldn’t beat out Nick Gates for the starting role last year. When he did play he had mixed results. Still he’s only 23 and has 3 years of cheap contract left so he’ll definitely be here. OC Conclusion – Huge question marks here. Gates and Larsen are likely gone and I don’t think we know what we have in Stromberg. It will be difficult to just hand Stromberg the starting job next year without bringing in someone to compete with him. But also if we use a high draft pick on a Center we’re basically relegating Stromberg to the bench for his career. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Offense Roster Evaluation Conclusions: I believe we currently have one long term building block on offense (McLaurin) and its debatable whether he should be shopped due to his age/contract situation next year. That is pretty depressing. Sam Cosmi and Brian Robinson have the potential to show they are long term players for us, but its really unlikely at RB for Robinson to earn a second contract (even the best RBs in the league don’t get new contracts). Logan Thomas and Leno’s age make them unlikely long term players for us. Dotson and Stromberg are longshots but have the ability to develop into long term starters if they can revive their careers. The rest of the depth chart I see as depth players that are ultimately interchangeable and replaceable. Offense Player Evaluation Summary Position Player Age Contract (Cap) Contract Remaining Player Evaluation Projection QB Sam Howell 23 $1,075,400 2 years 8 points Borderline starter QB Jacoby Brissett 31 FA none 4 points Move on QB Roster Expectation: 2 players QB Roster Need: 1 Starter HB Brian Robinson 24 $1,375,883 2 years 6 points Borderline starter HB Antonio Gibson 25 FA none 4 points Move on HB Chris Rodriguez 23 $959,422 3 years 5 points Career backup HB Roster Expectation: 3 players HB Roster Need: 1 Starter-ish TE Logan Thomas 30 $8,315,000 1 year 5 points Aging Backup TE John Bates 26 $1,235,605 1 year 5 points Career backup TE Cole Turner 23 $1,069,720 2 years 5 points Career backup TE Curtis Hodges 24 $993,334 RFA 4 points Fringe Roster TE Roster Expectation: 4 players TE Roster Need: 1 Starter/1 Backup WR Terry McLaurin 28 $24,100,00 2 years 9 points Star Player WR Jahan Dotson 23 $4,104,147 2 years 6 points Borderline Starter WR Curtis Samuel 27 FA none 5 points Move on WR Dyami Brown 24 $1,573,090 1 year 5 points Career backup WR Jamison Crowder 30 FA none 4 points Move on WR Roster Expectation: 6 players WR Roster Need: 1 Starter/2 Backups OT Charles Leno 32 $15,530,000 1 year 6 points Aging Starter OT Andrew Wylie 29 $9,416,666 2 years 3 points Needs to be Cut OT Cornelius Lucas 32 FA none 4 points Move on OT Roster Expectation: 4 players OT Roster Need: 1 Starter/2 Backups OG Sam Cosmi 25 $2,108,135 1 year 6 points Current Starter OG Chris Paul 25 $1,011,111 2 years 5 points Career backup OG Saahdiq Charles 24 FA none 3 points Move on OG Braeden Daniels 23 $983,613 3 years 5 points Likely backup OG Roster Expectation: 4 players OG Roster Need: 1 Starter OC Nick Gates 28 $5,236,083 2 years 3 points Needs to be Cut OC Tyler Larsen 32 FA none 4 points Move on OC Ricky Stromberg 23 $1,205,474 3 years 6 points Unknown OC Roster Expectation: 3 players OC Roster Need: 1 Starter-ish 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKnight82 Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 (edited) DEFENSIVE ENDS DEs: James Smith-Williams, Casey Toohill, KJ Henry, Andre Jones, Efe Obada DE James Smith-Williams (26 y.o., Pending FA) – Career Backup (2) + Pending FA (2) = 4 points - He has 27 career starts and 7 career sacks. He’s a pending free agent, so unless he’s willing to come back for the league minimum I think its time to move on. DE Casey Toohill (27 y.o., Pending FA) – Career Backup (2) + Pending FA (2) = 4 points - He produced 5 sacks this year after being given more opportunity. If we can sign one of him or Smith-Williams to a reasonably cheap extension to stay on as a backup, I would aim for Toohill. Still, I consider him pretty much a fringe roster, rotational at best type talent. DE KJ Henry (25 y.o., $1,004,816 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Paid appropriately (3) = 5 points - He showed some flashes but I expect him to likely remain as a rotational player at best going forward. With 3 years remaining on his rookie deal I expect him to be around for awhile. DE Andre Jones (26 y.o., $940,068 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Paid appropriately (3) = 5 points - He looked good in preseason but didn’t do much once the real games started. He has 3 years remaining on his rookie deal, but he might just be camp fodder. DE Efe Obada (31 y.o., Pending FA) – Career Backup (2) + Pending FA (2) = 4 points - He looked better with us the first year with us than last year. He is probably washed up, time to move on. DE Conclusion – We have one rotational player in KJ Henry currently under contract, and a fringe roster player in Andre Jones. We have no starters currently on the roster and will likely require one to two more depth players at the position. At minimum we have to add 2 new DEs to the roster, but it would be better if we added like 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DEFENSIVE TACKLES DTs: Daron Payne, Jon Allen, Phidarian Mathis, John Ridgeway, Abdullah Anderson DT Daron Payne (26 y.o., $21,610,000 2024 cap) – Pro Bowl Starter (5) + Expensive Vet but Worth It (4) = 9 points - Payne enters the first year of his expensive new extension next year. He’s under contract until 2027 and at only 26 years old could be in line for another expensive extension down the line. Payne didn’t play as well last year as the year before, but honestly no one did. Due to his age and ability Payne is probably our best long term building block on the roster. DT Jon Allen (29 y.o., $21,441,168 2024 cap) – Pro Bowl Starter (5) + Possibly Overpaid (2) = 7 points - Allen is a really tough evaluation. I think he’s a high quality player and a leader but he struggled to make an impact last year. I don’t know if he just got caught up in the total trainwreck that was last year or if he’s aging early. He’s also made some statements to the media about maybe not wanting to be here anymore. He has 2 years remaining on his deal and will likely need an extension next offseason. I don’t see how he fits the timeline of rebuilding team. Its going to be tough because his trade value is probably down right now. DT Phidarian Mathis (26 y.o., $2,047,193 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Overpaid Youngster (2) = 4 points - If Mathis turns into a solid rotation player that would be a win at this point. I honestly think he’s at risk to not make the roster next year if he has a bad camp. Designating him a post June 1st cut would save us a little over $1.2 mil with only a dead cap of $770k. Unless he has a 180 turnaround he’s not a long term building block. DT John Ridgeway (24 y.o., $985,000 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Paid appropriately (3) = 5 points - Ridgeway is a solid rotation player with 2 years remaining on his rookie contract. If he continues to play well and is willing to accept a reasonable extension I could see him sticking around after his rookie contract. DT Abdullah Anderson – pending FA – N/A DT Conclusion – We’re pretty much full up at this position for the upcoming season unless we move Jon Allen. I think its unlikely we sign any meaningful free agents or use a draft pick on a DT. Honestly the most likely way one of these 4 isn’t on the opening day roster is if an UDFA beats out Phidarian Mathis for a roster spot. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ LINEBACKERS LBs: Jamin Davis, Cody Barton, David Mayo, Khaleke Hudson, Jabril Cox LB Jamin Davis (25 y.o., $4,389,056 2024 cap) – Quality Starter (4) + Paid appropriately (3) = 7 points - Jamin Davis is a solid starter at linebacker. Was that worth a first round pick? Probably not. But he’s a solid starter worth keeping around. He’s entering the final year of his rookie contract and we’ll have a 5th year option with him if we want. But I would just decline the 5th year option and instead sign him to a 3-4 year reasonable extension if he would go for that. He’s only 25 and should be a good player for years. LB Cody Barton (27 y.o., Pending FA) – Career Backup (2) + Pending FA (2) = 4 points - Barton was a free agent signing that didn’t pan out. We should just move on. LB David Mayo (30 y.o., Pending FA) – Fringe Roster Player (1) + Pending FA (2) = 3 points - I would prefer to not have to watch Mayo play football again. LB Khaleke Hudson (26 y.o., Pending FA) – Career Backup (2) + Pending FA (2) = 4 points - I don’t really care what we decide with Hudson. If he would accept a super cheap contract than sure. But honestly I’d prefer a full reset at linebacker other than Davis. LB Jabril Cox (25 y.o., RFA) – Fringe Roster Player (1) + Pending FA (2) = 3 points - He’s a RFA so we can bring him in for training camp if we want but I don’t see him as a long term building block. Also didn’t Dan Quinn already give up on this guy in Dallas? Can’t see him sticking around. LB Conclusion – We need a lot of new blood at linebacker. I think Davis is a long term roster building block but we really have nothing else at the position. If we could somehow add a second linebacker that is better than Davis and then backfill the depth chart with additional talent it would be huge improvement from last year. We need to spend significant resources on this position in the offseason likely requiring multiple draft picks and free agent signings. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORNERBACKS CBs: Kendall Fuller, Benjamin St Juste, Emmanuel Forbes, Christian Holmes, Tariq Castro Fields, Kyu Blu Kelly CB Kendall Fuller (29 y.o., Pending FA) – Quality Starter (4) + Pending FA (2) = 6 points - Fuller is a solid CB capable of moving around the secondary and contributing positively in many ways. He’s a veteran that I think could transition to Quinn’s defense easily if we decide to resign him. I think most fans want to bring him back, but as a good veteran player he will probably have options and may move on. Personally I hope we bring him back. CB Benjamin St Juste (26 y.o., $1,622,967 2024 cap) – Borderline Starter (3) + Paid appropriately (3) = 6 points - St Juste has had kind of a raw deal here. He was probably slightly overdrafted and with that came some higher expectations. He has performed well at times even though he can get handsy. But last offseason our brilliant staff decided to make him practice as the slot CB all through camp, only to immediately realize it wasn’t working a few games into the regular season. Why anyone would think a guy with a 6’3” frame would have the agility to move around in the slot is beyond me. He’s a solid boundary CB for a rookie contract player but unless he makes major strides I think he will eventually be demoted from being a starter and likely won’t earn a second contract. CB Emmanuel Forbes (23 y.o., $3,501,720 2024 cap) – Borderline Starter (3) + Overpaid Youngster (2) = 5 points - Forbes is the most important reclamation project this new coaching staff has. If he can rebound we have a new starter who can take over St. Juste’s position and relegate him to the bench. If he fails and Fuller leaves, I’m not sure we have a starting CB on the roster. He’s still really young and had pedigree coming out of college so he has every chance to rebound. CB Christian Holmes (26 y.o., $1,008,470 2024 cap) – Fringe Roster Player (1) + Paid appropriately (3) = 4 points - I honestly can’t remember a play Holmes has ever made. I know he contributes on special teams. With 2 years of rookie contract remaining he has a good chance of staying on as a bottom of the roster contributor. CB Tariq Castro Fields (25 y.o., $985,000 2024 cap) – Fringe Roster Player (1) + Paid appropriately (3) = 4 points - The only times I remember Fields being called out are when he’s getting beat deep. We control him on a cheap deal this year and he’ll still be a RFA the year after, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets beat out in camp and doesn’t make the roster next year. CB Kyu Blu Kelly (22 y.o., $915,000 2024 cap) – Fringe Roster Player (1) + Paid appropriately (3) = 4 points - Kelly was drafted by a smart organization (Ravens) in the 5th round but didn’t make the Final 53 in his rookie season. He was claimed off of waivers by another smart organization (Seahawks) but after 5 games of only contributing on special teams was cut again. This time he was picked up by another smart organization (Packers), played 1 game with them and was immediately cut again. Now we’ve inherited him and his rookie contract with 3 years still remaining on it. The guy went to Stanford so he’s no idiot. I actually like his chances of sticking around if he can come in and have a good training camp. CB Conclusion – Lots of question marks here. If Fuller walks we have a huge hole at the top of the depth chart. No one on the roster is ready for the responsibility of covering #1 WRs every week. If we retain Fuller, I think it would be difficult to bring in any high end FAs at the position because we have too many other guys on the roster that need playing time to improve. They really need Forbes to bounce back and show he can be a long term starter. Even if he bounces back you always need good CBs, I can see the team spending a high draft pick on this position. Also I know the previous regime shoehorned Jartavious Martin in as a full time CB but I think he’s a Safety. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAFETIES S: Kamren Curl, Darrick Forrest, Jartavious Martin, Percy Butler, Jeremy Reaves S Kamren Curl (24 y.o., Pending FA) – Quality Starter (4) + Pending FA (2) = 6 points - My opinion is that Curl’s actual impact on the field is debatable. I see the argument’s about him being strong in coverage, but he doesn’t make impact plays on the field. I personally would be ok if they just let him walk in free agency. Despite that, we have a lot of money, he’s still really young, and we’d be potentially creating a hole on the roster by letting him leave. I expect them to attempt to sign him to a reasonable contract extension. S Darrick Forrest (24 y.o., $1,017,768 2024 cap) – Borderline Starter (3) + Paid appropriately (3) = 6 points - Forrest had a good rookie season but struggled with injuries last year. I like what we’ve seen from him when he’s played though and we have 2 years of rookie contract left with him. Hard to know what we have with him right now. S Jartavious Martin (23 y.o., $1,735,868 2024 cap) – Borderline Starter (3) + Paid appropriately (3) = 6 points - Basically look at the Forbes discussion and copy/paste here. We invested a 2nd round pick in Martin and he was a well regarded prospect in the draft. He should be able to develop into a competent starter at safety and we need him to. These modern defensive coordinators seem to want to put 3-4 safeties out on the field at a time and Martin needs to be a big part of that for us. S Percy Butler (23 y.o., $1,182,254 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Paid appropriately (3) = 5 points - Butler has struggled to tackle at times, but he’s athletic enough to be in every play. I feel like that is a good foundation to coach up. He has two years remaining on his rookie deal, is a former 4th round pick and is still really young. He’s quality depth at Safety. S Jeremy Reaves (27 y.o., Pending FA) – Fringe Roster Player (1) + Pending FA (2) = 3 points - After churning out a Pro Bowl season on special teams the year before Reaves had an injury riddled one last year. Its hard to know what will happen to special teams players when a new regime takes over. He doesn’t contribute much else so whatever they decide to do it won’t make a huge impact. S Conclusion – I think we’re pretty set at this position even if Curl leaves in FA. We have young players with starter upside in Martin and Forrest and solid depth players in Butler and Reaves. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Specialists – Don’t really care. Don’t trade up for a longsnapper. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Defense Roster Evaluation Conclusions: I believe we have two long term building blocks currently on the roster in Payne and Jamin Davis, and if Jon Allen rebounds this year he will be three. St. Juste and Forbes both have the natural ability to lock down the #2 CB job long term but both need to take strides this year to make that happen. Jartavious Martin is in a similar boat, and with how many Safeties they like to play now Forrest has a chance to a role going forward too. I could see John Ridgeway, KJ Henry or Percy Butler earning reasonable second contracts to stay on as quality depth. The rest I see as current depth while they are on their rookie contracts but ultimately replaceable. Defense Player Evaluation Summary Position Player Age Contract (Cap) Contract Remaining Player Evaluation Projection DE James Smith-Williams 26 FA none 4 points Move on DE Casey Toohill 27 FA none 4 points Possible Return DE KJ Henry 25 $1,004,816 3 years 5 points Career Backup DE Andre Jones 26 $940,068 3 years 5 points Fringe roster DE Efe Obada 31 FA none 4 points Move on DE Roster Expectation: 5 players DE Roster Need: 2 Starters / 1 Backup DT Daron Payne 26 $26,610,000 3 years 9 points Star Player DT Jon Allen 29 $21,441,168 2 years 7 points Aging Vet DT Phidarian Mathis 26 $2,047,193 2 years 4 points Fringe Roster DT John Ridgeway 24 $985,000 2 years 5 points Career Backup DT Roster Expectation: 4 players DT Roster Need: None LB Jamin Davis 25 $4,389,056 1 year + 5YO 7 points Quality Starter LB Cody Barton 27 FA none 4 points Move on LB David Mayo 30 FA none 3 points Move on LB Khaleke Hudson 26 FA none 4 points Move on LB Jabril Cox 25 RFA RFA 3 points Fringe Roster LB Roster Expectation: 5 players LB Roster Need: 1 Starter/ 1 Starter-ish/ 2 Backups CB Kendall Fuller 29 FA none 6 points FA We'd Like back CB Benjamin St Juste 26 $1,622,967 1 year 6 points Borderline Starter CB Emmanuel Forbes 23 $3,501,720 3 years + 5YO 5 points Enigma CB Christian Holmes 26 $1,008,470 2 years 4 points Career Backup CB Tariq Castro Fields 25 $985,000 1 year 4 points Fringe Roster CB Kyu Blu Kelly 22 $915,000 3 years 4 points Fringe Roster CB Roster Expectation: 6 players CB Roster Need: 1 Starter? / 1 Backup S Kamren Curl 24 FA none 6 points Quality Starter S Darrick Forrest 24 $1,017,768 2 years 6 points Borderline Starter S Jartavious Martin 23 $1,735,868 3 years 6 points Borderline Starter S Percy Butler 23 $1,182,254 2 years 5 points Career Backup S Jeremy Reaves 27 FA none 3 points Special teams S Roster Expectation: 5 players S Roster Need: 1 Backup? Edited February 5 by MKnight82 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKnight82 Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 (edited) Team Needs Offense: I expect a lot of turnover on the offense depth chart. I count 12 roster needs just for this upcoming season alone. Of those 12, I count we need 5 new starters (QB, TE, WR, OT, OG), two possible new starters or at least someone to compete with the current starter (HB, OC), and five depth players (TE, 2 WRs, 2 OTs, OG). We currently only have 9 draft picks and we’ll have needs on defense too, so we’re going to have to be active in free agency. There are positions (TE & HB) where teams routinely hit on starters in the mid rounds but others (QB & OT) will likely require high draft picks. But even with the influx of draft talent we’re going to have to make several free agent signings just to fill the roster. I expect a lot of mid level to cheaper type free agents, unlikely we go nuts on a bunch of star players. With a rebuilding roster and new staff maybe we fill 2 or so of those spots with UDFAs but with likely only 5ish draft picks coming in to the offense, we’ll likely need to sign 4-5 veteran free agents to join the roster. I’ll note too, with us likely wanting to retain most of our major FAs (Curl, Fuller) and there being only one likely to leave (Samuel) it’s pretty unnecessary to hold out for comp picks this year. Generally speaking as well, there is usually some high turnover when a new regime takes over. High turnover requires free agent signings. Beyond our immediate needs there are also the long term issues at LT and TE that could be addressed as well. We likely only have two returning starters (McLaurin and Cosmi) who are probably guaranteed to return as starters next year on offense. It wouldn’t be shocking if guys like Brian Robinson, Leno or even Dotson were replaced by others players as starters if an opportunity presents itself. If we are projecting who will still be on the roster in 4 years (or basically when all of these rookie deals will have expired) I would only bet on McLaurin and Cosmi at this point (and I’m not 100% on either of those, McLaurin for trade value and Cosmi for meh play). Offense Needs Conclusion Total Long Term Building Blocks 1 WR McLaurin Potential Long Term Starter 2 HB Brob OG Cosmi Aging Starters 2 TE Thomas OT Leno Quality Depth Players 3 QB Howell WR Dotson OC Stromberg Rookie Contract Depth 6 HB Rodriguez TE Bates TE Turner WR Brown OG Paul OG Daniels Turnover Need to be Cut 2 OT Wylie OC Gates Move On Pending Free Agents 8 QB Brissett HB Gibson TE Hodges WR Samuel WR Crowder OT Lucas OG Charles OC Larsen Offense Needs 12 New Starters 5 Possible New Starters 2 Depth Players 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Defense: The defense feels more entrenched than the offense. In fact there are two position groups (DT and S) where we could just roll back everyone from last year and I think we’d be fine. I count two long term building blocks in Payne and Jamin Davis, and you could count Jon Allen as a third. We have multiple young upside guys in St Juste, Forbes, Forrest and Martin who could all prove worthy of a second contract as starters as well. But DE and LB are probably the two worst position groups we have on the roster, definitely worse than anything we have on offense. I don’t think we have a starting caliber DE on the roster right now. I really think they need to attack that position from all fronts this offseason, brining in a veteran in FA and taking someone high in the draft. The same goes for linebacker, they need to totally revamp the depth chart other than Davis. Hit it front multiple fronts with free agency and draft picks. We also need depth at linebacker too so I could see us draft multiple players at the position. If we can retain Fuller and Curl in free agency I think we should generally roll back with most of the secondary from last year other than maybe adding a CB in the draft. We have a lot of recent draft pick pedigree in the secondary that deserves a shot with a new coaching staff. Bringing in veteran free agents here would just take snaps away from those guys which just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. If we lose Fuller or Curl though I think that’s when you go to Plan B in free agency for those spots. We also have so many holes at DE and LB, added with us maybe bringing in a rookie QB (and teams generally like to add additional offensive talent in a draft when they take a QB), we just don’t have the luxury to be able to spend a lot of draft picks on the secondary this year in my opinion. Defense Needs Conclusion Total Long Term Building Blocks 2 Daron Payne Jamin Davis Potential Long Term Starter 4 B St Juste E Forbes D Forrest J Martin Aging Starters 1 Jon Allen Quality Depth Players 3 John Ridgeway KJ Henry P Butler Rookie Contract Depth 6 Andre Jones P Mathis Jabril Cox C Holmes T Castro Fields KB Kelly Turnover Need to be Cut 0 Move On Pending Free Agents 5 James SW Efe Obada Cody Barton D Mayo K Hudson FAs We Want Back 4 Casey Toohill Kendall Fuller Kamren Curl J Reaves Defense Needs 8-10 New Starters 3 Possible New Starters 2 Depth Players 5 Edited February 5 by MKnight82 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Mc Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 First, as always, love reading up on your sims and roster breakdowns like this. I know it probably took a crap-ton of time to put this together so big kudos man. Now, you and I differ on our evaluation of the roster. You seem to believe there is more talent than I do. For example out of 33 contracted players (FAs excluded), you only have 6 listed as "fringe roster" and 2 need to be cuts. I would be willing to argue that outside of Terry McLaurin (cornerstone), Sam Cosmi (starting material), Jahan Dotson (potential starter), Brian Robinson (potential starter), Jon Allen (cornerstone), Daron Payne (cornerstone), Jamin Davis (potential starter), Quan Martin (potential starter) and Darrick Forrest (potential starter), everyone is a fringe roster player. The concept that seven players of the eleven from the worst defense in the level are still labeled starters, potential long term starter or long term building blocks, is crazy to me. The only decent lineman we had last year was Sam Cosmi, everyone else was hot trash. Jon Allen shouldn't be listed as "aging" as he is still in his prime even if he was dealing with plantar fasciitis for the majority of his season. Everyone past Allen and Payne should be potential starters. I know you don't care about special teams as long as we dont trade up for a LS, but both K and P should be looked at to be upgraded. I love our MVP Tress Way, but if he doesn't get back on track this year, I think he will be replaced too. I for one would trade or outright cut both Logan Thomas and Benjamin St. Juste as quick as possible, or at the very least at the same time Wylie and Gates are shown the door. I honestly think we need to reset at the CB position. Let Fuller walk and trade/cut BSJ. Signing someone like Jaylon Johnson (5y/98M)and pairing with a Stephon Gilmore (1y/10M) would give Emmanuel Forbes someone to learn behind. Resigning Curl to a fair deal (4y/54M) is essential to me as well. The combination of Curl, Forrest and Martin should be fun for Quinn/Witt to use. Then you gotta decide how much of the roster you want to change this year and what you want to do next. Players like Bates, Turner, Rodriguez, Brown, Thomas, Wylie, St. Juste, Ridgeway, Henry, Butler, Jones, Mathis, Cox, Holmes, Castro-Fields, Kelly will all be replaced by the 2025 season. None of that list has shown any potential to be anthing other than JAGs, most wouldn't be on any other NFL roster. Again, I really enjoyed reading and appreciate you taking your time putting this together. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKnight82 Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 28 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: Now, you and I differ on our evaluation of the roster. You seem to believe there is more talent than I do. For example out of 33 contracted players (FAs excluded), you only have 6 listed as "fringe roster" and 2 need to be cuts. I would be willing to argue that outside of Terry McLaurin (cornerstone), Sam Cosmi (starting material), Jahan Dotson (potential starter), Brian Robinson (potential starter), Jon Allen (cornerstone), Daron Payne (cornerstone), Jamin Davis (potential starter), Quan Martin (potential starter) and Darrick Forrest (potential starter), everyone is a fringe roster player. No I think you're just missing what I'm saying conceptually. We have a lot of solid depth players but are missing a lot of starters. 30 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: The concept that seven players of the eleven from the worst defense in the level are still labeled starters, potential long term starter or long term building blocks, is crazy to me. We have two whole position groups on defense that need to be revamped (DE and LB) but have a lot of drafted pedigree players at other positions. Its hard to completely write off guys that were talented in college just because they looked bad in a really outdated bad defensive scheme. I think a new scheme will change the outlook on a lot of the defensive players, especially the secondary. That's just my opinion though. 32 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: The only decent lineman we had last year was Sam Cosmi, everyone else was hot trash. Leno was solid. Otherwise I pretty much said that. 32 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: Jon Allen shouldn't be listed as "aging" as he is still in his prime even if he was dealing with plantar fasciitis for the majority of his season. That's fair but nagging injuries start to occur as players age. I mean I stated if Allen rebounds this year then he should be considered a long term building block. 33 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: I know you don't care about special teams as long as we dont trade up for a LS, but both K and P should be looked at to be upgraded. I love our MVP Tress Way, but if he doesn't get back on track this year, I think he will be replaced too. That's fair too but I wouldn't address these in the draft. 34 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: I for one would trade or outright cut both Logan Thomas and Benjamin St. Juste as quick as possible, or at the very least at the same time Wylie and Gates are shown the door. I don't see the point in cutting Logan Thomas until we have a replacement on the roster. We don't need the cap space. Cutting St Juste creates an unnecessary hole on the roster and we really need to see these guys in a scheme that actually makes sense before make drastic opinions like that. I stated that Wylie and Gates should be cut. 36 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: I honestly think we need to reset at the CB position. Let Fuller walk and trade/cut BSJ. Signing someone like Jaylon Johnson (5y/98M)and pairing with a Stephon Gilmore (1y/10M) would give Emmanuel Forbes someone to learn behind. IMO that is a year premature. BSJ has another year of cheap contract available we should use that to evaluate him. Forbes needs snaps too. If you want to swap Jaylon Johnson for Fuller then fine but he has to be convinced to come here (and not be tagged by Chicago). 38 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: Resigning Curl to a fair deal (4y/54M) is essential to me as well. I guess. Safety is actually one of the only positions in free agency where there will be some quality players available. It could be argued there are better options in FA than Curl. 39 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: The combination of Curl, Forrest and Martin should be fun for Quinn/Witt to use. Agreed. 40 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: Players like Bates, Turner, Rodriguez, Brown, Thomas, Wylie, St. Juste, Ridgeway, Henry, Butler, Jones, Mathis, Cox, Holmes, Castro-Fields, Kelly will all be replaced by the 2025 season. None of that list has shown any potential to be anthing other than JAGs, most wouldn't be on any other NFL roster. I know its a long post but I talk about a lot of this if you read through it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Great work @MKnight82 FAs We Want Back 4 Casey Toohill Kendall Fuller Kamren Curl J Reaves I didn't do it in my early offseason, but I am open to these four back. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Mc Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 21 hours ago, MKnight82 said: Offense Roster Evaluation Conclusions: I believe we currently have one long term building block on offense (McLaurin) and its debatable whether he should be shopped due to his age/contract situation next year. That is pretty depressing. Sam Cosmi and Brian Robinson have the potential to show they are long term players for us, but its really unlikely at RB for Robinson to earn a second contract (even the best RBs in the league don’t get new contracts). Logan Thomas and Leno’s age make them unlikely long term players for us. Dotson and Stromberg are longshots but have the ability to develop into long term starters if they can revive their careers. The rest of the depth chart I see as depth players that are ultimately interchangeable and replaceable. I agree with all of this. 21 hours ago, MKnight82 said: If we are projecting who will still be on the roster in 4 years (or basically when all of these rookie deals will have expired) I would only bet on McLaurin and Cosmi at this point (and I’m not 100% on either of those, McLaurin for trade value and Cosmi for meh play) Yep. I apologize for drunk reading and commenting on your hard work @MKnight82. I agree with almost all of what you said minus some of the grades you have given. Especially when it comes to the moron on offense. I think there is a good deal of untapped/misused potential, but I also think some have reached their ceilings already. Going back to the CB subject, Kendall Fuller was not worth his contract last year. If he doesn't take a hometown discount, we need to move on. BSJ destroyed our defense last year. Can't even imagine to quantify the number of pass interference/holding calls on him with or without the ones not called. BSJ cannot be a starter next year. I also don't think Forbes should be counted on as a starter, hence the need for a new starting CB duo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKnight82 Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 27 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: I agree with all of this. Yep. I apologize for drunk reading and commenting on your hard work @MKnight82. I agree with almost all of what you said minus some of the grades you have given. Especially when it comes to the moron on offense. I think there is a good deal of untapped/misused potential, but I also think some have reached their ceilings already. Going back to the CB subject, Kendall Fuller was not worth his contract last year. If he doesn't take a hometown discount, we need to move on. BSJ destroyed our defense last year. Can't even imagine to quantify the number of pass interference/holding calls on him with or without the ones not called. BSJ cannot be a starter next year. I also don't think Forbes should be counted on as a starter, hence the need for a new starting CB duo. BSJ and Forbes are both still on rookie contracts. If we’re rebuilding we might as well give them a chance under a new scheme. We’re not going to fix every need in one off-season and we have a lot bigger holes than CB. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Mc Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 29 minutes ago, MKnight82 said: BSJ and Forbes are both still on rookie contracts. If we’re rebuilding we might as well give them a chance under a new scheme. We’re not going to fix every need in one off-season and we have a lot bigger holes than CB. BSJ has had enough time to prove he is capable and he isn't. We don't need to waste snaps on him. Forbes is also not ready for the spot light. His rookie season makes BSJ look decent. It's best that Forbes sit behind quality veterans and get spot fits. If we go into the season with BSJ and Fuller, we can expect another very long season for our pass defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKnight82 Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: BSJ has had enough time to prove he is capable and he isn't. We don't need to waste snaps on him. Forbes is also not ready for the spot light. His rookie season makes BSJ look decent. It's best that Forbes sit behind quality veterans and get spot fits. If we go into the season with BSJ and Fuller, we can expect another very long season for our pass defense. That is an overreaction imo. We’re a rebuilding team we might as well give these guys a shot under a new scheme. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Mc Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 40 minutes ago, MKnight82 said: That is an overreaction imo. We’re a rebuilding team we might as well give these guys a shot under a new scheme. As I said, we see the talent level differently. I've watched BSJ enough to know he isn't anything decent. Fuller is definitely OK, but he should be a CB2, not CB1. Forbes did not look like he belonged on the field last year. I'm willing to give him a chance to look different, but not BSJ. It will be the same issues no matter the scheme/coach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I need to take more time to read this and all but at first read I say bravo! Great job summarizing where we are @MKnight82 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 hours ago, Slappy Mc said: As I said, we see the talent level differently. I've watched BSJ enough to know he isn't anything decent. Fuller is definitely OK, but he should be a CB2, not CB1. Forbes did not look like he belonged on the field last year. I'm willing to give him a chance to look different, but not BSJ. It will be the same issues no matter the scheme/coach. I think regardless BSJ will be on the team. He may not be starting depending on who we add and if Forbes steps up but I’m certain BSJ is going to at least be our 4th CB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Mc Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 23 minutes ago, turtle28 said: I think regardless BSJ will be on the team. He may not be starting depending on who we add and if Forbes steps up but I’m certain BSJ is going to at least be our 4th CB. Man the amount of certainty from you guys is amazing. Get your lotto tickets now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
offbyone Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Really nice read. Agree with most of this. Oline a real tough position group because while we know we definitely need to upgrade, there are a lot of players it is hard to know the right move with. I struggle with cutting Wylie and Gates since the cap hit is so high. They are serviceable backups. Although I do see the argument of just moving on. With Lucas, hard not to wonder his price as a swing tackle backup. I would cut Dyami Brown. He gives us one good game a year and otherwise is a liability. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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