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Roster Evaluation and Team Needs


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Love the work that went into this.  As much as I love forums, I never had the patience to learn any of the formatting like this.  

I do think you’re being a little generous calling Davis a building block.  Honestly, he’s a solid starter and if you re-sign him, you are looking to replace him in a couple years once you’ve built up more talent around the defense.  For the next couple years, he’s done well enough to stick around.  

I just don’t see a whole lot of talent here, and I see well over 50% of this roster being churned over by the time we play games in 2026.  And it might even be closer to 75%.  

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On the debate that made up most of the comments, I think the horrific coaching of the secondary last season is sufficient reason for a mulligan.

That was one of the league’s better secondaries in 2022, at the back end of one of the league’s better defenses. 4th in yards, 7th in points, top 10 in DVOA. Legitimately good defense, propped up by legitimately good performances from Curl, Forrest, Fuller, and (yes, even) BSJ.

And then Chris Harris leaves and gets replaced by some guy, and all of a sudden Fuller’s overrated and BSJ is terrible and Kam Curl is decent at best and Forbes is the worst rookie of all time. 

There is too much to be done this offseason at positions where we have no one who has ever been good or even had a chance to be good. The OL is a bright-red *critical* need at 3 separate positions and the EDGE position is absolutely barren. There’s nothing at TE, and Jamin Davis is the only LB with a pulse. And that doesn’t even include WR or the most important position on the roster. 

To me, you keep that group intact and let Quinn/Whitt put them in position to succeed. If it’s a mess again, come back and take an axe to the DB room next offseason — but for now, you’ve got players who’ve been good in their career, and a couple of coaches whose superpower together has been getting high-end secondary play out of guys like we have. I’d say let’s see where it goes.

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2 hours ago, e16bball said:

On the debate that made up most of the comments, I think the horrific coaching of the secondary last season is sufficient reason for a mulligan.

That was one of the league’s better secondaries in 2022, at the back end of one of the league’s better defenses. 4th in yards, 7th in points, top 10 in DVOA. Legitimately good defense, propped up by legitimately good performances from Curl, Forrest, Fuller, and (yes, even) BSJ.

And then Chris Harris leaves and gets replaced by some guy, and all of a sudden Fuller’s overrated and BSJ is terrible and Kam Curl is decent at best and Forbes is the worst rookie of all time. 

There is too much to be done this offseason at positions where we have no one who has ever been good or even had a chance to be good. The OL is a bright-red *critical* need at 3 separate positions and the EDGE position is absolutely barren. There’s nothing at TE, and Jamin Davis is the only LB with a pulse. And that doesn’t even include WR or the most important position on the roster. 

To me, you keep that group intact and let Quinn/Whitt put them in position to succeed. If it’s a mess again, come back and take an axe to the DB room next offseason — but for now, you’ve got players who’ve been good in their career, and a couple of coaches whose superpower together has been getting high-end secondary play out of guys like we have. I’d say let’s see where it goes.

They started the year off poorly, but losing Harris as you said and then their FS Forrest for the year & their leader in the secondary Jeremy Reaves hurt their D a lot. 

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On 2/5/2024 at 12:01 PM, MKnight82 said:

DEFENSIVE ENDS

1802610731.jpg?w=1024&h=576&crop=1

DEs: James Smith-Williams, Casey Toohill, KJ Henry, Andre Jones, Efe Obada

 

DE James Smith-Williams (26 y.o., Pending FA) – Career Backup (2) + Pending FA (2) = 4 points

- He has 27 career starts and 7 career sacks. He’s a pending free agent, so unless he’s willing to come back for the league minimum I think its time to move on.

 

DE Casey Toohill (27 y.o., Pending FA) – Career Backup (2) + Pending FA (2) = 4 points

- He produced 5 sacks this year after being given more opportunity. If we can sign one of him or Smith-Williams to a reasonably cheap extension to stay on as a backup, I would aim for Toohill. Still, I consider him pretty much a fringe roster, rotational at best type talent.

 

DE KJ Henry (25 y.o., $1,004,816 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Paid appropriately (3) = 5 points

- He showed some flashes but I expect him to likely remain as a rotational player at best going forward. With 3 years remaining on his rookie deal I expect him to be around for awhile.

 

DE Andre Jones (26 y.o., $940,068 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Paid appropriately (3) = 5 points

- He looked good in preseason but didn’t do much once the real games started. He has 3 years remaining on his rookie deal, but he might just be camp fodder.

 

DE Efe Obada (31 y.o., Pending FA) – Career Backup (2) + Pending FA (2) = 4 points

- He looked better with us the first year with us than last year. He is probably washed up, time to move on.

 

DE Conclusion – We have one rotational player in KJ Henry currently under contract, and a fringe roster player in Andre Jones. We have no starters currently on the roster and will likely require one to two more depth players at the position. At minimum we have to add 2 new DEs to the roster, but it would be better if we added like 4. 

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DEFENSIVE TACKLES

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DTs: Daron Payne, Jon Allen, Phidarian Mathis, John Ridgeway, Abdullah Anderson

 

DT Daron Payne (26 y.o., $21,610,000 2024 cap) – Pro Bowl Starter (5) + Expensive Vet but Worth It (4) = 9 points

-  Payne enters the first year of his expensive new extension next year. He’s under contract until 2027 and at only 26 years old could be in line for another expensive extension down the line. Payne didn’t play as well last year as the year before, but honestly no one did. Due to his age and ability Payne is probably our best long term building block on the roster.

 

DT Jon Allen (29 y.o., $21,441,168 2024 cap) – Pro Bowl Starter (5) + Possibly Overpaid (2) = 7 points

- Allen is a really tough evaluation. I think he’s a high quality player and a leader but he struggled to make an impact last year. I don’t know if he just got caught up in the total trainwreck that was last year or if he’s aging early. He’s also made some statements to the media about maybe not wanting to be here anymore. He has 2 years remaining on his deal and will likely need an extension next offseason. I don’t see how he fits the timeline of rebuilding team. Its going to be tough because his trade value is probably down right now.

 

DT Phidarian Mathis (26 y.o., $2,047,193 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Overpaid Youngster (2) = 4 points

- If Mathis turns into a solid rotation player that would be a win at this point. I honestly think he’s at risk to not make the roster next year if he has a bad camp. Designating him a post June 1st cut would save us a little over $1.2 mil with only a dead cap of $770k. Unless he has a 180 turnaround he’s not a long term building block.

 

DT John Ridgeway (24 y.o., $985,000 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Paid appropriately (3) = 5 points

- Ridgeway is a solid rotation player with 2 years remaining on his rookie contract. If he continues to play well and is willing to accept a reasonable extension I could see him sticking around after his rookie contract.

 

DT Abdullah Anderson – pending FA – N/A

 

DT Conclusion – We’re pretty much full up at this position for the upcoming season unless we move Jon Allen. I think its unlikely we sign any meaningful free agents or use a draft pick on a DT. Honestly the most likely way one of these 4 isn’t on the opening day roster is if an UDFA beats out Phidarian Mathis for a roster spot.

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LINEBACKERS

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LBs: Jamin Davis, Cody Barton, David Mayo, Khaleke Hudson, Jabril Cox

 

LB Jamin Davis (25 y.o., $4,389,056 2024 cap) – Quality Starter (4) + Paid appropriately (3) = 7 points

- Jamin Davis is a solid starter at linebacker. Was that worth a first round pick? Probably not. But he’s a solid starter worth keeping around. He’s entering the final year of his rookie contract and we’ll have a 5th year option with him if we want. But I would just decline the 5th year option and instead sign him to a 3-4 year reasonable extension if he would go for that. He’s only 25 and should be a good player for years.

 

LB Cody Barton (27 y.o., Pending FA) – Career Backup (2) + Pending FA (2) = 4 points

- Barton was a free agent signing that didn’t pan out. We should just move on.

 

LB David Mayo (30 y.o., Pending FA) – Fringe Roster Player (1) + Pending FA (2) = 3 points

- I would prefer to not have to watch Mayo play football again.

 

LB Khaleke Hudson (26 y.o., Pending FA) – Career Backup (2) + Pending FA (2) = 4 points

- I don’t really care what we decide with Hudson. If he would accept a super cheap contract than sure. But honestly I’d prefer a full reset at linebacker other than Davis.

 

LB Jabril Cox (25 y.o., RFA) – Fringe Roster Player (1) + Pending FA (2) = 3 points

- He’s a RFA so we can bring him in for training camp if we want but I don’t see him as a long term building block. Also didn’t Dan Quinn already give up on this guy in Dallas?  Can’t see him sticking around.

 

LB Conclusion – We need a lot of new blood at linebacker. I think Davis is a long term roster building block but we really have nothing else at the position. If we could somehow add a second linebacker that is better than Davis and then backfill the depth chart with additional talent it would be huge improvement from last year. We need to spend significant resources on this position in the offseason likely requiring multiple draft picks and free agent signings. 

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CORNERBACKS

nfl23_Kendall-Fuller-1.jpg

CBs: Kendall Fuller, Benjamin St Juste, Emmanuel Forbes, Christian Holmes, Tariq Castro Fields, Kyu Blu Kelly

 

CB Kendall Fuller (29 y.o., Pending FA) – Quality Starter (4) + Pending FA (2) = 6 points

- Fuller is a solid CB capable of moving around the secondary and contributing positively in many ways. He’s a veteran that I think could transition to Quinn’s defense easily if we decide to resign him. I think most fans want to bring him back, but as a good veteran player he will probably have options and may move on. Personally I hope we bring him back.

 

CB Benjamin St Juste (26 y.o., $1,622,967 2024 cap) – Borderline Starter (3) + Paid appropriately (3) = 6 points

- St Juste has had kind of a raw deal here. He was probably slightly overdrafted and with that came some higher expectations. He has performed well at times even though he can get handsy. But last offseason our brilliant staff decided to make him practice as the slot CB all through camp, only to immediately realize it wasn’t working a few games into the regular season. Why anyone would think a guy with a 6’3” frame would have the agility to move around in the slot is beyond me. He’s a solid boundary CB for a rookie contract player but unless he makes major strides I think he will eventually be demoted from being a starter and likely won’t earn a second contract.

 

CB Emmanuel Forbes (23 y.o., $3,501,720 2024 cap) – Borderline Starter (3) + Overpaid Youngster (2) = 5 points

- Forbes is the most important reclamation project this new coaching staff has. If he can rebound we have a new starter who can take over St. Juste’s position and relegate him to the bench. If he fails and Fuller leaves, I’m not sure we have a starting CB on the roster. He’s still really young and had pedigree coming out of college so he has every chance to rebound.

 

CB Christian Holmes (26 y.o., $1,008,470 2024 cap) – Fringe Roster Player (1) + Paid appropriately (3) = 4 points

- I honestly can’t remember a play Holmes has ever made. I know he contributes on special teams. With 2 years of rookie contract remaining he has a good chance of staying on as a bottom of the roster contributor.

 

CB Tariq Castro Fields (25 y.o., $985,000 2024 cap) – Fringe Roster Player (1) + Paid appropriately (3) = 4 points

- The only times I remember Fields being called out are when he’s getting beat deep. We control him on a cheap deal this year and he’ll still be a RFA the year after, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets beat out in camp and doesn’t make the roster next year.

 

CB Kyu Blu Kelly (22 y.o., $915,000 2024 cap) – Fringe Roster Player (1) + Paid appropriately (3) = 4 points

- Kelly was drafted by a smart organization (Ravens) in the 5th round but didn’t make the Final 53 in his rookie season. He was claimed off of waivers by another smart organization (Seahawks) but after 5 games of only contributing on special teams was cut again. This time he was picked up by another smart organization (Packers), played 1 game with them and was immediately cut again. Now we’ve inherited him and his rookie contract with 3 years still remaining on it. The guy went to Stanford so he’s no idiot. I actually like his chances of sticking around if he can come in and have a good training camp.

 

CB Conclusion – Lots of question marks here. If Fuller walks we have a huge hole at the top of the depth chart. No one on the roster is ready for the responsibility of covering #1 WRs every week. If we retain Fuller, I think it would be difficult to bring in any high end FAs at the position because we have too many other guys on the roster that need playing time to improve. They really need Forbes to bounce back and show he can be a long term starter. Even if he bounces back you always need good CBs, I can see the team spending a high draft pick on this position. Also I know the previous regime shoehorned Jartavious Martin in as a full time CB but I think he’s a Safety.   

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SAFETIES

Curl-Kamren-Alamy-scaled.jpg?w=956&h=538

S: Kamren Curl, Darrick Forrest, Jartavious Martin, Percy Butler, Jeremy Reaves

 

S Kamren Curl (24 y.o., Pending FA) – Quality Starter (4) + Pending FA (2) = 6 points

- My opinion is that Curl’s actual impact on the field is debatable. I see the argument’s about him being strong in coverage, but he doesn’t make impact plays on the field. I personally would be ok if they just let him walk in free agency. Despite that, we have a lot of money, he’s still really young, and we’d be potentially creating a hole on the roster by letting him leave. I expect them to attempt to sign him to a reasonable contract extension.

 

S Darrick Forrest (24 y.o., $1,017,768 2024 cap) – Borderline Starter (3) + Paid appropriately (3) = 6 points

- Forrest had a good rookie season but struggled with injuries last year. I like what we’ve seen from him when he’s played though and we have 2 years of rookie contract left with him. Hard to know what we have with him right now.

 

S Jartavious Martin (23 y.o., $1,735,868 2024 cap) – Borderline Starter (3) + Paid appropriately (3) = 6 points

- Basically look at the Forbes discussion and copy/paste here. We invested a 2nd round pick in Martin and he was a well regarded prospect in the draft. He should be able to develop into a competent starter at safety and we need him to. These modern defensive coordinators seem to want to put 3-4 safeties out on the field at a time and Martin needs to be a big part of that for us.

 

S Percy Butler (23 y.o., $1,182,254 2024 cap) – Career Backup (2) + Paid appropriately (3) = 5 points

Butler has struggled to tackle at times, but he’s athletic enough to be in every play. I feel like that is a good foundation to coach up. He has two years remaining on his rookie deal, is a former 4th round pick and is still really young. He’s quality depth at Safety.

 

S Jeremy Reaves (27 y.o., Pending FA) – Fringe Roster Player (1) + Pending FA (2) = 3 points

- After churning out a Pro Bowl season on special teams the year before Reaves had an injury riddled one last year. Its hard to know what will happen to special teams players when a new regime takes over. He doesn’t contribute much else so whatever they decide to do it won’t make a huge impact.

 

S Conclusion – I think we’re pretty set at this position even if Curl leaves in FA. We have young players with starter upside in Martin and Forrest and solid depth players in Butler and Reaves.   

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Specialists – Don’t really care. Don’t trade up for a longsnapper.

 

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Defense Roster Evaluation Conclusions:

I believe we have two long term building blocks currently on the roster in Payne and Jamin Davis, and if Jon Allen rebounds this year he will be three. St. Juste and Forbes both have the natural ability to lock down the #2 CB job long term but both need to take strides this year to make that happen. Jartavious Martin is in a similar boat, and with how many Safeties they like to play now Forrest has a chance to a role going forward too. I could see John Ridgeway, KJ Henry or Percy Butler earning reasonable second contracts to stay on as quality depth. The rest I see as current depth while they are on their rookie contracts but ultimately replaceable.

 

 

Defense Player Evaluation Summary
Position Player Age Contract (Cap) Contract Remaining Player Evaluation Projection
DE James Smith-Williams 26 FA none 4 points Move on
DE Casey Toohill 27 FA none 4 points Possible Return
DE KJ Henry 25 $1,004,816 3 years 5 points Career Backup
DE Andre Jones 26 $940,068 3 years 5 points Fringe roster
DE Efe Obada 31 FA none 4 points Move on
          DE Roster Expectation: 5 players
          DE Roster Need: 2 Starters / 1 Backup
DT Daron Payne 26 $26,610,000 3 years 9 points Star Player
DT Jon Allen 29 $21,441,168 2 years 7 points Aging Vet
DT Phidarian Mathis 26 $2,047,193 2 years 4 points Fringe Roster
DT John Ridgeway 24 $985,000 2 years 5 points Career Backup
          DT Roster Expectation: 4 players
          DT Roster Need: None
LB Jamin Davis 25 $4,389,056 1 year + 5YO 7 points Quality Starter
LB Cody Barton 27 FA none 4 points Move on
LB David Mayo 30 FA none 3 points Move on
LB Khaleke Hudson 26 FA none 4 points Move on
LB Jabril Cox 25 RFA RFA 3 points Fringe Roster
          LB Roster Expectation: 5 players
        LB Roster Need: 1 Starter/ 1 Starter-ish/ 2 Backups
CB Kendall Fuller 29 FA none 6 points FA We'd Like back
CB Benjamin St Juste 26 $1,622,967 1 year 6 points Borderline Starter
CB Emmanuel Forbes 23 $3,501,720 3 years + 5YO 5 points Enigma
CB Christian Holmes 26 $1,008,470 2 years 4 points Career Backup
CB Tariq Castro Fields 25 $985,000 1 year 4 points Fringe Roster
CB Kyu Blu Kelly 22 $915,000 3 years 4 points Fringe Roster
          CB Roster Expectation: 6 players
        CB Roster Need: 1 Starter? / 1 Backup
S Kamren Curl 24 FA none 6 points Quality Starter
S Darrick Forrest 24 $1,017,768 2 years 6 points Borderline Starter
S Jartavious Martin 23 $1,735,868 3 years 6 points Borderline Starter
S Percy Butler 23 $1,182,254 2 years 5 points Career Backup
S Jeremy Reaves 27 FA none 3 points Special teams
          S Roster Expectation: 5 players
        S Roster Need: 1 Backup?

Great post!!!!

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1 hour ago, Slappy Mc said:

I had Howell rated as one of the most valuable assets on the team. 

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On 2/11/2024 at 4:59 PM, e16bball said:

On the debate that made up most of the comments, I think the horrific coaching of the secondary last season is sufficient reason for a mulligan.

That was one of the league’s better secondaries in 2022, at the back end of one of the league’s better defenses. 4th in yards, 7th in points, top 10 in DVOA. Legitimately good defense, propped up by legitimately good performances from Curl, Forrest, Fuller, and (yes, even) BSJ.

And then Chris Harris leaves and gets replaced by some guy, and all of a sudden Fuller’s overrated and BSJ is terrible and Kam Curl is decent at best and Forbes is the worst rookie of all time. 

There is too much to be done this offseason at positions where we have no one who has ever been good or even had a chance to be good. The OL is a bright-red *critical* need at 3 separate positions and the EDGE position is absolutely barren. There’s nothing at TE, and Jamin Davis is the only LB with a pulse. And that doesn’t even include WR or the most important position on the roster. 

To me, you keep that group intact and let Quinn/Whitt put them in position to succeed. If it’s a mess again, come back and take an axe to the DB room next offseason — but for now, you’ve got players who’ve been good in their career, and a couple of coaches whose superpower together has been getting high-end secondary play out of guys like we have. I’d say let’s see where it goes.

I think it’s just the entire team as a whole just gave up after the Bears game.  It was a historically bad season.  

However, from that unit in 2022, we could be moving on from Fuller and Curl, so there might just be a need here because of subtraction.  

I think you give the last season of his contract to BSJ- at least I think it’s his last contract year- and you absolutely bring back Curl.  I dont think Forbes is the worst rookie of all-time, but he was also highly overdrafted.  I am still concerned about his size and being a durable player.  

It does have the potential for a bounce back unit, but I could also see the team moving on from at least Fuller due to age.  Also, Fuller himself might want to go chase a ring with a contender.  Gotta re-sign Curl.  That’s a big priority.

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On 2/13/2024 at 8:14 AM, naptownskinsfan said:

think it’s just the entire team as a whole just gave up after the Bears game.  It was a historically bad season.  

 

Yeah, Rivera lost the team & the season was over after the Bears blowout on Thursday Night Football when they hadn't won a game in 13 games. Then, to exacerbate that we traded away both starting DEs & then it was definitely over & players had given up. 

I remember Kam Curl’s tweet after Rivera/the FO traded away both Sweat & Chase on the same day & it was cryptic but it was basically like, “WTF are we doing, we’re giving up on this season!”

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On 2/12/2024 at 9:49 AM, Slappy Mc said:

I'm in that weird boat where I love Howell but want to draft a QB lol. I still think Sammy has the ability to be very good but I don't know how much I trust myself in that regard anymore? I will say, watching this fanbase just totally dump on Howell anytime he's mentioned now is pretty sad and shows just how out of touch they are with what it takes to develop a young QB. I don't think a vast majority of the fans of this team realize it can take years and if Maye/Daniels struggle they'll immediately start trashing that guy too. 

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On 2/13/2024 at 8:14 AM, naptownskinsfan said:

I think it’s just the entire team as a whole just gave up after the Bears game.  It was a historically bad season.  

However, from that unit in 2022, we could be moving on from Fuller and Curl, so there might just be a need here because of subtraction.  

I think you give the last season of his contract to BSJ- at least I think it’s his last contract year- and you absolutely bring back Curl.  I dont think Forbes is the worst rookie of all-time, but he was also highly overdrafted.  I am still concerned about his size and being a durable player.  

It does have the potential for a bounce back unit, but I could also see the team moving on from at least Fuller due to age.  Also, Fuller himself might want to go chase a ring with a contender.  Gotta re-sign Curl.  That’s a big priority.

I would be incredibly bummed if they let Curl walk. I just think he's so good. 

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6 hours ago, lavar703 said:

I would be incredibly bummed if they let Curl walk. I just think he's so good. 

Me too & as I keep telling idiots on twitter who think he’s just ok & will be easily replaceable, even if they don’t see the great value in Curl’s run D as a S & his great coverage shutting down TEs, who else this roster are you going to re-sign for sure?

Maybe Fuller? Maybe Samuel? Maybe Gibson?

Like those 4 are it and given age/play on the field, Curl is the most valuable of that group.

JUST PAY THE MAN!

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2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Me too & as I keep telling idiots on twitter who think he’s just ok & will be easily replaceable, even if they don’t see the great value in Curl’s run D as a S & his great coverage shutting down TEs, who else this roster are you going to re-sign for sure?

Maybe Fuller? Maybe Samuel? Maybe Gibson?

Like those 4 are it and given age/play on the field, Curl is the most valuable of that group.

JUST PAY THE MAN!

Most of the mouth-breathers are upset at his lack of turnovers, and I’ve seen more than one major media outlet writer say the same thing.  

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2 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Most of the mouth-breathers are upset at his lack of turnovers, and I’ve seen more than one major media outlet writer say the same thing.  

I don’t think it’s a “mouth breather” response to question why a guy hasn’t created a turnover in 3 years. 

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1 hour ago, MKnight82 said:

I don’t think it’s a “mouth breather” response to question why a guy hasn’t created a turnover in 3 years. 

The same group of people that would come from would question signing a player like Pat Williams to play 3-4 nose tackle.  They don’t understand football beyond surface/fantasy football stats.  Williams had 20.5 sacks in 14 seasons in the NFL, but was the premier run-stuffer during his era and you built a defense up the middle behind him.  

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