Prime Russell Wilson or Current Lamar Jackson?

[CP3MVP]

Who would you rather have 

[BetterCallSaul]

Tough. I feel like prime Russ is the better player, but Lamar is so enticing with what he could be. Lamar would be more fun to employ as a weapon, so I voted Lamar. 

[seminoles1]

Lamar Jackson.

[Mox]

RS-Lamar

PS-Russ

[lavar703]

I'll take the one that made it two Super Bowls and won one. No offense to Lamar who I think is an awesome QB. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

I think prime Russ wasn't better than Lamar 99% of the time, but the 1% of the time is in the clutch and Russ came through time and time again whereas Lamar routinely falters in those scenarios.

So while I think Lamar is a better player on the whole compared to Russ, if the goal is you're picking a guy to take you to a Superbowl and win that Superbowl, I would take prime Russ.

[El Ramster]

The guy who actually shows up for the playoffs. 

[AngusMcFife]

37 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I think prime Russ wasn't better than Lamar 99% of the time, but the 1% of the time is in the clutch and Russ came through time and time again whereas Lamar routinely falters in those scenarios.

Does that 1% of the time include throwing a Super Bowl-losing INT to end the game? Or throwing 4 INTs in a playoff game and still winning because of Beast Mode vs GB? Or having the luxury of going 9/18 for 100 yards in the playoffs but Beast mode going off to win against NO?

Your memory of Russ in the playoffs doesn't match mine. Russ's success 2012-2014 is directly tied to Lynch having dominating performances: 5 games over 102 yards, 3 of which were over 132 yards.

Now it is true Russ had some pretty good passing games in the playoffs post 2014, but his record was 3-5 since then so I don't really think that's particularly "clutch," it's about the same as Lamar's 2-4 playoff record.

 

[MaddHatter]

19 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Does that 1% of the time include throwing a Super Bowl-losing INT to end the game? Or throwing 4 INTs in a playoff game and still winning because of Beast Mode vs GB? Or having the luxury of going 9/18 for 100 yards in the playoffs but Beast mode going off to win against NO?

Your memory of Russ in the playoffs doesn't match mine. Russ's success 2012-2014 is directly tied to Lynch having dominating performances: 5 games over 102 yards, 3 of which were over 132 yards.

Now it is true Russ had some pretty good passing games in the playoffs post 2014, but his record was 3-5 since then so I don't really think that's particularly "clutch," it's about the same as Lamar's 2-4 playoff record.

 

Yeah, I've never understood why Russ was always heralded as this super Clutch QB or great Playoff QB.  Peyton is another one who often won despite his own performances and is misremembered as being Clutch or a great Playoff QB

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

25 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Does that 1% of the time include throwing a Super Bowl-losing INT to end the game? Or throwing 4 INTs in a playoff game and still winning because of Beast Mode vs GB? Or having the luxury of going 9/18 for 100 yards in the playoffs but Beast mode going off to win against NO?

Your memory of Russ in the playoffs doesn't match mine. Russ's success 2012-2014 is directly tied to Lynch having dominating performances: 5 games over 102 yards, 3 of which were over 132 yards.

Now it is true Russ had some pretty good passing games in the playoffs post 2014, but his record was 3-5 since then so I don't really think that's particularly "clutch," it's about the same as Lamar's 2-4 playoff record.

1. The Superbowl INT will always haunt Seattle fans, but it was still a good throw, just a better play by the defender. Not like Lamar throwing into triple coverage when we're already in FG range.
2. He threw 4 INT's in the GB game and also won them the game with the TD pass to Kearse in OT. Really bad game from Russ but still came through when it mattered. Compare that to, say, any playoff game where Lamar struggles and he never comes through it matters. Or the PIT game from this year - he struggles with WR drops the entire game but is still in position to win the game near the end, and instead turns it over twice.

His stats in the playoffs are still better than anything Lamar has done, even with those games, and he was a very clutch player in general - compared to Lamar who generally is not. 

Until Lamar can prove he can either be a game manager through the playoffs with a great defense and not turn the ball over while still scoring OR until he can get over the hump of being not a clutch player, I just don't see how you would take him over prime Russ.

Edited February 19 by AFlaccoSeagulls

[AngusMcFife]

58 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

1. The Superbowl INT will always haunt Seattle fans, but it was still a good throw, just a better play by the defender. Not like Lamar throwing into triple coverage when we're already in FG range.

I'm not sure everyone agrees with that interpretation!

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He threw 4 INT's in the GB game and also won them the game with the TD pass to Kearse in OT. Really bad game from Russ but still came through when it mattered. Compare that to, say, any playoff game where Lamar struggles and he never comes through it matters. Or the PIT game from this year - he struggles with WR drops the entire game but is still in position to win the game near the end, and instead turns it over twice.

I guess the difference is when Russ struggles or doesn't do anything in a playoff game, his team was able to get and hold the lead, whereas when Lamar struggled, the team collapsed when playing from behind. Lamar is the focal point of the offense whereas Russ is the second option behind the run game. 

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His stats in the playoffs are still better than anything Lamar has done, even with those games, and he was a very clutch player in general - compared to Lamar who generally is not. 

Until Lamar can prove he can either be a game manager through the playoffs with a great defense and not turn the ball over while still scoring OR until he can get over the hump of being not a clutch player, I just don't see how you would take him over prime Russ.

It's fair to take prime Russ, but every playoff game that he's attempted over 30 passes he's lost. If you timewarped prime Russ into the Ravens playoff losses to the Titans in 2019 or Chiefs in 2023 where he is passing 37 or 59 times, I don't think he magically becomes clutch and wins those games when the RBs are shut down.

It's much easier to be clutch when you have beast mode getting 150 yards on the ground and pounding the D. Although Russ still managed to choke away a Super Bowl with good ground production.

To complete the stat, Russ is 3-6 when he attempts 27 passes or more the playoffs, and 0-3 when over 30. That doesn't scream "clutch performer" to me, if he gets worse results when he is the focal point of the offense.

[Soko]

36 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

To complete the stat, Russ is 3-6 when he attempts 27 passes or more the playoffs, and 0-3 when over 30.

The 5 best QBs of the last 20 years (Brady, Mahomes, Peyton, Rodgers, Brees) collectively have 49 postseason losses. There were a total of three games where they didn’t eclipse 30+ passes in all those losses, 6%. Those three instances were 26, 27, and 29 times.

Now obviously they all have a bunch of wins throwing 30+ times, and Russ has none. I’m not trying to sway the idea that the Seahawks were a team that won largely with a ground game and great defense. Just saying that the 30+ pass attempts thing isn’t as damning as it sounds. Losing efforts generally will come with the need to pass the ball at some point, it of course makes sense that QBs will need to pass more in those situations. 

FWIW, I agree with @AFlaccoSeagulls about the Butler INT. The only reason that play happens is because Butler practiced that play in practice (got beat) and guessed the playcall based on the alignment. If Kearse disrupts the defense correctly, if Brandon Browner isn’t the CB pressing him, or if Butler doesn’t guess right on the play, then that doesn’t happen. That’s designed to be a pitch-and-catch TD, that Seattle has run successfully prior in that season. Wilson put it one football length from Lockette’s shoulder, there was almost nothing wrong with the throw. It was 100% a successful gamble and catch by Butler, and good jam by Browner.

Edited February 19 by Soko

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

2 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

I'm not sure everyone agrees with that interpretation!

I guess the difference is when Russ struggles or doesn't do anything in a playoff game, his team was able to get and hold the lead, whereas when Lamar struggled, the team collapsed when playing from behind. Lamar is the focal point of the offense whereas Russ is the second option behind the run game. 

It's fair to take prime Russ, but every playoff game that he's attempted over 30 passes he's lost. If you timewarped prime Russ into the Ravens playoff losses to the Titans in 2019 or Chiefs in 2023 where he is passing 37 or 59 times, I don't think he magically becomes clutch and wins those games when the RBs are shut down.

It's much easier to be clutch when you have beast mode getting 150 yards on the ground and pounding the D. Although Russ still managed to choke away a Super Bowl with good ground production.

To complete the stat, Russ is 3-6 when he attempts 27 passes or more the playoffs, and 0-3 when over 30. That doesn't scream "clutch performer" to me, if he gets worse results when he is the focal point of the offense.

I see this as more of a Lamar/Ravens problem than a problem with the Seahawks or Russ. They knew their identity and they stuck with it, and it gave them great success. The Ravens don't do that, which is why they constantly end up having Lamar throw a million times in playoff games and lose. Lamar also has issues in most playoff games with turnovers and any lack of rhythm, too.

Russ might be 3-6 in the playoffs when attempting more than 27 passes and 0-3 over 30 but Lamar's playoff record is garbage no matter what context you surround around any of his stats, so it all still favors Russ!

I love Lamar. My favorite player in the NFL by far right now, but his biggest weakness is how he performs in the playoffs and when it matters. Russell Wilson was able to win a Superbowl (largely thanks to his defense), but even then Lamar has had 2 fantastic defenses and has failed both times, this year was AN EASY PATH too! He didn't have to face a juggernaut 49ers team or the best passing offense in NFL history (granted that passing offense got taken apart entirely by the LOB), but the fact remains Russ not only didn't play bad, but did exactly what needed to be done and won those games, whereas Lamar has continuously faltered and that is something that just cannot be ignored at this point.

Edited February 19 by AFlaccoSeagulls

[Jakuvious]

6 hours ago, MaddHatter said:

Yeah, I've never understood why Russ was always heralded as this super Clutch QB or great Playoff QB.  Peyton is another one who often won despite his own performances and is misremembered as being Clutch or a great Playoff QB

QB win superbowl? QB clutch.

QB no win superbowl? QB no clutch.

[AngusMcFife]

4 hours ago, Soko said:

The 5 best QBs of the last 20 years (Brady, Mahomes, Peyton, Rodgers, Brees) collectively have 49 postseason losses. There were a total of three games where they didn’t eclipse 30+ passes in all those losses, 6%. Those three instances were 26, 27, and 29 times.

Now obviously they all have a bunch of wins throwing 30+ times, and Russ has none. I’m not trying to sway the idea that the Seahawks were a team that won largely with a ground game and great defense. Just saying that the 30+ pass attempts thing isn’t as damning as it sounds. Losing efforts generally will come with the need to pass the ball at some point, it of course makes sense that QBs will need to pass more in those situations.

There are various ways of breaking it down, but my point is that even in Russ's prime they were a run-driven offense and their playoff wins were based on defense and beast mode first and second, then Russ is third in terms of importance.

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FWIW, I agree with @AFlaccoSeagulls about the Butler INT. The only reason that play happens is because Butler practiced that play in practice (got beat) and guessed the playcall based on the alignment. If Kearse disrupts the defense correctly, if Brandon Browner isn’t the CB pressing him, or if Butler doesn’t guess right on the play, then that doesn’t happen. That’s designed to be a pitch-and-catch TD, that Seattle has run successfully prior in that season. Wilson put it one football length from Lockette’s shoulder, there was almost nothing wrong with the throw. It was 100% a successful gamble and catch by Butler, and good jam by Browner.

However you want to break it down, it's the worst INT in NFL history.