Vikings sign Sam Darnold

[vike daddy]

11 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

If Sam Darnold were an unfamiliar quantity I could see him starting the season.

As things are, I don't see an advantage in going with known failure over possible success.  J.J. McCarthy is facing enough pressure as a rookie from a run-first college offense going to a passing one in the pros.  Taking the place of Kirk Cousins having an excellent year.  Why make it worse by having him take the field in late September, after the opposing defenses have had time to gel and the Vikes are down 2 or 3 games under Darnold?

the Doctor is in the house!

[Dr A W Niloc]

4 hours ago, wcblack34 said:

Because bad habits are formed by lack of preparation.

     Failures are formed by lack of preparation.  Bad habits are formed from bad preparation.  (See also "Practice doesn't make perfect.  It makes permanent.")  We can also consider with apprehension what a rookie might learn from Sam Arnold.

     I concede that the majority will want to season a QB on the bench.  This harkens back to a time when teams would take a QB later in the draft and tutor him behind their star pivot (something Minnesota no longer has).  Other than Green Bay, today's teams eschew that foresight in favor of "just in time inventory", as the Vikings have with McCarthy.  Fans are impatient, wanting to build on their success.  N.B.:  It might be different on a bottom dwelling team with lowered expectations (e.g. Arizona).

     I also concede that McCarthy is likely to flounder in his first few outings but delaying his start might do little more than delay that period of transition.  It could dull his edge and undermine his confidence as he watches Arnold on the field and wonders:  "You think I'm worse than this guy?"

     It could also vary from prospect to prospect, with some being utterly overwhelmed by a Game 1 start while others exhibit cucumbrian coolness, even thriving under pressure.  I get the sense that JJ (who had the second best rating under pressure, behind Bo "Quickdraw" Nix) is very much the latter.

[vike daddy]

16 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     Failures are formed by lack of preparation.  Bad habits are formed from bad preparation.  (See also "Practice doesn't make perfect.  It makes permanent.")  We can also consider with apprehension what a rookie might learn from Sam Arnold.

     I concede that the majority will want to season a QB on the bench.  This harkens back to a time when teams would take a QB later in the draft and tutor him behind their star pivot (something Minnesota no longer has).  Other than Green Bay, today's teams eschew that foresight in favor of "just in time inventory", as the Vikings have with McCarthy.  Fans are impatient, wanting to build on their success.  N.B.:  It might be different on a bottom dwelling team with lowered expectations (e.g. Arizona).

     I also concede that McCarthy is likely to flounder in his first few outings but delaying his start might do little more than delay that period of transition.  It could dull his edge and undermine his confidence as he watches Arnold on the field and wonders:  "You think I'm worse than this guy?"

     It could also vary from prospect to prospect, with some being utterly overwhelmed by a Game 1 start while others exhibit cucumbrian coolness, even thriving under pressure.  I get the sense that JJ (who had the second best rating under pressure, behind Bo "Quickdraw" Nix) is very much the latter.

i wish you would post here with us more often, Doctor.

always a pleasure to read your posts, as cucumbrian as they are.

[vike daddy]

26 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      I also concede that McCarthy is likely to flounder in his first few outings but delaying his start might do little more than delay that period of transition.  It could dull his edge and undermine his confidence as he watches Arnold on the field and wonders:  "You think I'm worse than this guy?"

that possibility always exists. but as long as we're listing scenarios and potential outcomes, holding JJ by a leash at first could just as well light a fire under his midwestern butt and make him that much more motivated once he's given his chance. who knows?

see: Mahomes and Smith

[VikeManDan]

1 hour ago, vike daddy said:

i wish you would post here with us more often, Doctor.

always a pleasure to read your posts, as cucumbrian as they are.

Agreed, more frequent posts/visits from @Dr A W Niloc!

[swede700]

2 hours ago, vike daddy said:

i wish you would post here with us more often, Doctor.

always a pleasure to read your posts, as cucumbrian as they are.

I'm still waiting on my cucumbers to grow. 

[Dr A W Niloc]

     This year will be challenging for the Vikes.  Detroit began as the favorite before having a top three draft.  The Bears are resurgent and the Packers ain't pikers.  Minny won't have a ground game so they'll need a QB orders of magnitude better than the predictable Telegram Sam.  Is there anything to suggest J.J. McCarthy could be "the guy"?

     Here are the particulars for the new starting QBs, including Average Depth of Target, Big Time and Turnover Worthy Play Rates, Pressure to Sack Ratio, and Average Time to Throw:

Rookie   Pass Deep Mdim Prsr None | Adj. ADot BTTR TWPR Drop P2SR AT2T
QBs      Rtng Grad Grad Rtng Rtng | Cmp%      Rate      Rate      Secs
                                  |                              
Penix    90.5 93.5 90.9 65.3 92.2 | 74.5 10.7  7.3  2.0  5.5  7.6 2.68
Bo Nix   92.7 95.5 94.7 91.2 91.9 | 85.5  6.8  4.1  1.0  7.0  7.6 2.44
Maye     89.8 97.1 83.8 61.3 91.7 | 75.3 11.0  7.7  1.9  8.2 19.5 2.79
Daniels  92.0 99.2 89.4 63.0 93.2 | 79.6 10.5  8.4  1.6  6.7 20.2 2.91
Williams 84.6 95.5 78.0 38.9 93.4 | 77.5  9.2  6.2  3.6  3.9 23.0 3.16
McCarthy 87.3 93.1 92.4 72.9 89.4 | 80.8  9.4  5.9  2.9  7.7 16.8 2.84

     As I mentioned earlier, the Pressure Rating shows McCarthy is not given to panic.  Do I think he would exhibit more composure on September 8th against the NYGs than 29-38 Darnold, whose confidence has been shattered by six years of ineptitude, at least some of it his own?  Hell, yes.

     The rest of J.J.'s numbers are average, except that he has the highest completion rate among the passers (i.e. other than Bo Nix).  As a yardsticker, McCarthy doesn't throw often and rarely throws long.  NFL Defensive Coordinators don't cower in fear of such QBs.  J.J. is going to a team with serious deep threats, little ground game, and an average (PFF Aggregate:18th) defense--hardly a good fit for a Pitchagain Wolverine QB.  So where is the good news?

     Last year, we geeks assumed that C.J. Stroud had little mobility because he so rarely needed to show it at Ohio State.  SPOILER ALERT:  We wuz wrong.  The fact that J.J. doesn't throw long [often] doesn't mean he can't.  In fact, the numbers, however sparse, suggest he can.  Running game?  Granted, the O-Line isn't great at carcass removal (bottom 6) but do you know where it ranks in pass blocking (i.e. OTs + Pass Block Win Rate)?  Yup, numero uno.  Oh, and that steadily improving average defence has drafted Edger Dallas Turner into an area of need and may have gotten obscenely lucky in free agency with CB Dwight McGlothern and Edger Grayson Murphy.

      I still think Detroit will win the NFC-North and the Bears are daunting.  The Rams will make the wild card race tighter.  At worst, though, Fantasy Footballers should not shy away from those in the Minnesota aerial attack;  their 2024 positional schedules (QB:3rd softest, RB:26th, WR:10th, TE:3rd) will certainly help McCarthy's cause.

     Sorry about the length.  You people shouldn't encourage me.

 

 

[vike daddy]

T Rex...?

Sherman, set the WAYBAK Machine to 1972....

[Captain Relax]

1 hour ago, vike daddy said:

T Rex...?

Sherman, set the WAYBAK Machine to 1972....

Well..."Bang a Gong" Mr. Peabody!

[swede700]

16 hours ago, vike daddy said:

T Rex...?

Sherman, set the WAYBAK Machine to 1972....

On a side note, the internet archive is called the Wayback Machine.  It's where the youngins' can find out what the webpage looked like for Pets.com before it went belly-up after Y2K. 

[SteelKing728]

That's pretty cool!

(Just don't look at his stats against the Vikings lol)

Edited June 1 by SteelKing728

[SteelKing728]

I'd sure hope so. Darnold was thrown to the wolves at 21 with no help around him and playing in a city that had way too high expectations for him.

He was set up for failure with the Jets.

[swede700]

The ripe old age of 27.

[vike daddy]

 

Tom Pelissero: "Everything that I have heard so far is that Sam Darnold has had a really good spring, he's dialed in. He is talented, he was the third overall pick back in 2018. He's got a huge arm, can make plays. It's just been about the consistency, limiting those types of really bad plays that can completely blow up a game."

MinnesotaVikingsPro.com

[PrplChilPill]

4 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

 

Tom Pelissero: "Everything that I have heard so far is that Sam Darnold has had a really good spring, he's dialed in. He is talented, he was the third overall pick back in 2018. He's got a huge arm, can make plays. It's just been about the consistency, limiting those types of really bad plays that can completely blow up a game."

MinnesotaVikingsPro.com

Heh.....as a golfer, we all know it's easier to hit them on the range than in games. I think Darnold has REAL talent, but we have no idea if he can eliminate mistakes until there is actual pressure to win.