The Plunge Mock Draft #1

[Tugboat]

5 minutes ago, scar988 said:

Not in the scheme that Nielsen runs that features two 3T guys over 70% of the time in their nickel sets. 

Allen at WOLB/WDE

Walker at WDT

Armstead at SDT

Verse at SDE

I just don't see Walker as an every down 3T.  He's useful as a surprise in pass rushing situations there, but he's the wrong kind of "tweener" to play there as a "base" imo.  Or as close to "base" as things get these days, especially with a guy like Nielsen.

Nielsen's comments about the edge guys in Jacksonville also make me think he's seeing Walker as that SDE for the most part.  Obviously going to move around more than the outgoing scheme.  But as a foundation...i don't really have much confidence in it outside of that role.

 

And i don't see Verse holding up at DE in that sort of scheme at all.  He's weak and soft and gets bullied by big men.  Allen would stand a better chance of holding up there, but it'd be an absolutely tragic waste of his talent to ask him to do that instead of what you're suggesting as that Rush LBer/Wide9 DE/whatever.

 

If it were an EDGE guy with more play strength, size, discipline, and physicality...i could maybe wrap my head around a way that it could work.  But not Verse.

[onejayhawk]

10 hours ago, vshank8182 said:

32. Kansas City Chiefs: CB, Kamari Lassiter, Georgia

First, it's Sneed. With apologies to Terrell and Diggs, this is the best CB of the 2020 class. At least spell the name correctly.

The Chiefs are well positioned at CB with Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson, both of whom have seen significant playoff and Super Bowl time (Watson is the one who made the one-handed interception against Trevor Lawrence). This is not a hole to fill. With Danna unsigned and Omenihu injured, they have a hole at Edge unless Felix Anudike-Uzomah can grow into the position. 

They would trade up for Chop Robinson when he slid past #25 They would trade back for a team wanting a 5th-year option on Bo Nix. With no trades, OT, DE, or BPA. 

BTW When was the last time the Packers took a 1st-round OL? It was 2011. 

[Tugboat]

6 minutes ago, scar988 said:

Nielsen runs an under front in both 3-4 and 4-3 looks. 

So in this situation:

Base (30%)

WOLB/WDE - Verse

UT - Arik Armstead

NT - Da'Von Hamilton

SDE - Travon Walker

SOLB - Josh Allen

 

Nickel (70%) (2-4-5 or 4-2-5 looks)

WDE/WOLB - Verse

W3T - Walker

S3T - Armstead

SDE/SOLB - Josh Allen

 

The thing is...in that first "base" scenario, you're basically getting Verse on the field by either having him, or Allen potentially drop in coverage.  Which...both can do, and Allen is actually good at it.  But it's kind of a waste to me, when it's easier to find less "premium" guys for that role who are more natural at it.  It's also really still skirting the line on whether Walker is enough to hold up at DE in that alignment.

 

As far as the "nickel" scenario which is the more likely "base" in effect, it's just hard to see Verse not getting absolutely blown up.  That's not his deal at all.  And it's a scenario where you're basically trying to plug even lighter, less resilient guys into what Atlanta did overall, and in a way that doesn't strictly suit the personnel.  It becomes, trying to fit Verse to the scheme.

 

I do think they need to find some sort of additional edge, and probably one in that similar sort of "7/wide9" designated rusher mold to give Nielsen the options he'll want.  It just seems like a huge stretch to me, to spend the most valuable draft asset the Jaguars have on that...when they have plenty of other needs still, and also have Walker who is pretty well built to play that DE position in a lot of Nielsen's different fronts.  He's got that mix of size and power with the ability to still really get after the QB.  Like...he's a double digit sack guy, mostly as an Edge/OLB.

[scar988]

26 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

 

The thing is...in that first "base" scenario, you're basically getting Verse on the field by either having him, or Allen potentially drop in coverage.  Which...both can do, and Allen is actually good at it.  But it's kind of a waste to me, when it's easier to find less "premium" guys for that role who are more natural at it.  It's also really still skirting the line on whether Walker is enough to hold up at DE in that alignment.

 

As far as the "nickel" scenario which is the more likely "base" in effect, it's just hard to see Verse not getting absolutely blown up.  That's not his deal at all.  And it's a scenario where you're basically trying to plug even lighter, less resilient guys into what Atlanta did overall, and in a way that doesn't strictly suit the personnel.  It becomes, trying to fit Verse to the scheme.

 

I do think they need to find some sort of additional edge, and probably one in that similar sort of "7/wide9" designated rusher mold to give Nielsen the options he'll want.  It just seems like a huge stretch to me, to spend the most valuable draft asset the Jaguars have on that...when they have plenty of other needs still, and also have Walker who is pretty well built to play that DE position in a lot of Nielsen's different fronts.  He's got that mix of size and power with the ability to still really get after the QB.  Like...he's a double digit sack guy, mostly as an Edge/OLB.

You do realize Walker played a 5T DE role in college and has been basically out of position in his current role, right? 

[Tugboat]

7 minutes ago, scar988 said:

You do realize Walker played a 5T DE role in college and has been basically out of position in his current role, right? 

Heck, they lined him up everywhere at Georgia.  From OLB to Nose.  But sure, the argument was that he was "played out of position" in College though, which limited his production.  That was the argument for taking him over other better players, including guys who were actually even more "misused" in college like Hutchinson.

But again...i think a 5T DE is Walkers real "role".  That's his more natural spot whether he was drafted to play a bit outside that role or not.  He's a prototype of that modern "heavy end" 5T role.  He's basically the epitome of what you'd want as the DE in that 3DL 1 Rush LB sort of front.

 

Asking him to kick inside as a more permanent 3T is a different ask.  Especially where you have to ask either him or Armstead to effectively two-gap.  I think that's outside his wheelhouse, as built.  That's where he's a "reduce inside" on passing downs candidate for sure.  But as a base...that's just asking the opposition to run the ball right down his throat every time.

 

 

Again, i also just really don't care for Verse.  I don't see the point in making all these reconfigurations to spend the top pick on a guy like that.  I could understand adding a guy i really like as a EDGE.  Even a guy like Darius Robinson who is right in that same Trayvon Walker mold and just let 'em sort it out.  Or just grab a natural IDL guy like Jer'Zhan Newton and maybe some run the loop Wide9 guy later.  But i don't like this pick for the way it fits, given the premium price on what seems like an awkward fit to me.

[FalconFan13]

4 hours ago, scar988 said:

While some others might say this doesn't make sense. Nabers would be insanely fun in this offense. We would never see 7 in the box again, let alone 8.

Im with you on this one im not against a 1st round WR honestly if it's one of the big 3.  All 3 of them would be legit BPA at pick 8 more than likely and font has said he leans heavily toward that regardless of position usually.  Plus as much as i like mooney and moore i don't view either of them are our future #2.  London and Nabers would be that elite combo with mooney moore hodge and mcloud being the rest of the groupings. 

I would really hope we can pull a Reddick after taking Nabers though because im not super strong on the rest of the edge class after the 1st round.  Where as the WR class is stupid deep although Nabers is in another tier.

To me when it comes to BPA  i would think the top 3 WR's are all 3 higher than Latu, Verse, and Nabers, who imo would all 3 be higher than Arnold and Mitchell.   I prefer to wait on a CB til later im not happy about that position in round 1 at all.  Although im sure others might agree with me i just really think Alford and Phillips are really good CB's.

[Swampbilly]

11 hours ago, LinderFournette said:

Walker can be a full time dt.

LOL, Bro I could be a full time NFL DT........Doesn't mean I'd be any good at it.  If the Jags take an edge rusher in round 1 then Walker is probably walking to another team or sitting on the bench.  Dude is heading towards bust status.

[Swampbilly]

A+ pick for Miami.  I think JPJ probably is off the board by time the Dolphins draft pick comes around, but if not he would be a great pick at 21 considering our needs and his abilities.

[Tugboat]

16 hours ago, Swampbilly said:

LOL, Bro I could be a full time NFL DT........Doesn't mean I'd be any good at it.  If the Jags take an edge rusher in round 1 then Walker is probably walking to another team or sitting on the bench.  Dude is heading towards bust status.

Walker isn't heading toward bust status.  He's been making steady, gradual progress.  Unlikely he ever lives up to top pick billing, but he's a very solid edge defender and still trending upward.  Top-25 in the league in sacks in his second year isn't a "bust".  Not as consistent with his pressure as you'd like but he's solid overall.

Which is a big part of why i just really don't see a finesse EDGE rusher as worth the investment for the Jaguars 1st round pick.

[OneTwoSixFive]

For the Packers, OT/G/C Barton is the guy I'd take if none of the guys I liked better dropped (and they didn't), so an unspectacular but solid choice.

[Swampbilly]

11 hours ago, Tugboat said:

Walker isn't heading toward bust status.  He's been making steady, gradual progress.  Unlikely he ever lives up to top pick billing, but he's a very solid edge defender and still trending upward.  Top-25 in the league in sacks in his second year isn't a "bust".  Not as consistent with his pressure as you'd like but he's solid overall.

Which is a big part of why i just really don't see a finesse EDGE rusher as worth the investment for the Jaguars 1st round pick.

Top 25 in the league isn't great when you are being paid on the #1 overall pick pay scale.  Don't get me wrong, he definitely isn't a bust yet and he had a very solid year in 2023........But he hasn't silenced the critics yet.  

I don't think the Jags will be selecting an edge rusher early either, but if they did then I don't see Walker being a slam dunk option to move inside.......Possible but not Probable IMO.

[Tugboat]

9 hours ago, Swampbilly said:

Top 25 in the league isn't great when you are being paid on the #1 overall pick pay scale.  Don't get me wrong, he definitely isn't a bust yet and he had a very solid year in 2023........But he hasn't silenced the critics yet.  

I don't think the Jags will be selecting an edge rusher early either, but if they did then I don't see Walker being a slam dunk option to move inside.......Possible but not Probable IMO.

It's not like Walker is just blowing expectations out of the water, but it's okay on that #1 Pick contract.  It's underwhelming and certainly not a "steal"...but it's fine.  Especially since he's still trending in the right direction.  And it was always going to be a little bit of a process with him as the pick, given how he was used at Georgia.

 

But yeah...i agree.  That's my main comment on this.  I just don't see an Edge guy being the pick there, and not one like Verse.  If it is though, i still think it's iffy on how Walker would transition inside.  I just don't really see it.  He'd be robust as a DE on the edge...but i think once you start really kicking him inside, he becomes undersized and not as able to hold up as you'd like.  It's just not really strictly in his build or skillset.  Sub packages inside?  Let him run, sure.  Just a pure penetrator in passing downs, cool.  If you've got someone good enough on both edges to be better there than he can be.  But trying to make that a thing doesn't feel like so much of a priority to me.  Not over other things.

[LinderFournette]

On 3/28/2024 at 10:30 PM, Tugboat said:

It's not like Walker is just blowing expectations out of the water, but it's okay on that #1 Pick contract.  It's underwhelming and certainly not a "steal"...but it's fine.  Especially since he's still trending in the right direction.  And it was always going to be a little bit of a process with him as the pick, given how he was used at Georgia.

 

But yeah...i agree.  That's my main comment on this.  I just don't see an Edge guy being the pick there, and not one like Verse.  If it is though, i still think it's iffy on how Walker would transition inside.  I just don't really see it.  He'd be robust as a DE on the edge...but i think once you start really kicking him inside, he becomes undersized and not as able to hold up as you'd like.  It's just not really strictly in his build or skillset.  Sub packages inside?  Let him run, sure.  Just a pure penetrator in passing downs, cool.  If you've got someone good enough on both edges to be better there than he can be.  But trying to make that a thing doesn't feel like so much of a priority to me.  Not over other things.

I'll take an edge over over a wr all day Outside the big 3(MHJ Nabers Odunze). 

U complain about taking a cb.   U complain about about taking a guy to put pressure on the QB besides also providing insurance if we can't come to terms with Josh Allen.

 

At this point I think u won't be satisfied with any player.

[LinderFournette]

On 3/27/2024 at 8:10 AM, Swampbilly said:

LOL, Bro I could be a full time NFL DT........Doesn't mean I'd be any good at it.  If the Jags take an edge rusher in round 1 then Walker is probably walking to another team or sitting on the bench.  Dude is heading towards bust status.

Actually he can.   Dudes already built like it. Might need to put on a lil weight but who's to say he hasn't been playing higher then 270 already. 

[LinderFournette]

On 3/28/2024 at 12:47 PM, Swampbilly said:

Top 25 in the league isn't great when you are being paid on the #1 overall pick pay scale.  Don't get me wrong, he definitely isn't a bust yet and he had a very solid year in 2023........But he hasn't silenced the critics yet.  

I don't think the Jags will be selecting an edge rusher early either, but if they did then I don't see Walker being a slam dunk option to move inside.......Possible but not Probable IMO.

Look at the jags contract situation.  Allen for all intents and purposes is a free agent next year.   Why not draft a guy who's arguably bpa at the least especially in our division cuz u need to knock Stroud around.

Walkers already developing at a faster pace most thought. 

Now u throw in one of the best DL coaches as his DC and neilsen can coach walker up in some areas to unleash him even more.

 

He's a huge mismatch inside cuz he's way to fast and agile for Guards/centers and probably too powerful/athletic for a decent bit of tackles.