Rolni's mock offseason vol. 1 update on page 2

[Rolni]

Hi all!

It is sad that the season is still on, but us Raider fans can start doing mocks...I really hoped we won't get back here this fast after last year, but here we are.

Please take into consideration that the draft boards will change a lot from now on, so don't kill me if you think I placed a guy a few rounds off

I hope you will like the plan I curently have in mind here.

 

I would really like to see us move away from Jack Del Rio, but the sad reality is pointing towards that we keep him and go out for a new OC to turn this ship back. If that OC is a truly good one I could live with that. I know that a young promising OC prospect just turned our season into ashes, but I hope RM can force JDR to go out there and bring in a quality, fresh guy, not a guy like Koetter. I would be really happy if we would bring in John DeFilippo from the Eagles. I know this might sound unrealistic right now, but if Reich doesn’t get a HC gig, we might be able to land him, since I doubt he gets a HC gig from his current QB coach job.

With that said the coaching staff would look like this:

HC: Jack Del Rio
OC: John DeFilippo
DC: John Pagano
The motto: In John’s we trust!!

 

Cut:

·         David Amerson CB cap saving for 2018 6M (can't stay healthy and play really inconsistent)

Let walk:

·         Reggie Nelson FS (just too slow)

·         Sebastian Janikowski K (we got his replacement)

·         Aldon Smith EDGE (if is not reinstated by now, he never will be IMO)

·         Denico Autry DL (we have multiple young guys for his role, for a lot less)

·         Lee Smith TE (we have Walford, Cook (pass prot) and Olawale (run block) to replace his blocking for less and I really like the 6OL sets for the power running game anyway)

·         Keith McGill S (he is just an average ST player, we need to get UDFA’s, late round guys for that)

Re-sign:

·         T.J. Carrie CB (4years 30M deal, basically we give him Amerson’s money and a 4th year)

·         Justin Ellis NT (4year 16M deal similar to what Abry Jones got last year)

·         E.J. Emanuel QB (2year 4M deal after he realizes, that there is no starting job offer for him elsewhere)

·         Navarro Bowman LB (2year (1+1) 7M (3+4) deal for the veteran, who brought some stability to the middle)

·         Jon Condo LS  (1year 1M deal like the last one)

·         Most of the ERFA guys: Shilique Calhoun, James Cowser, Denver Kirkland, Erik Harris, Xavier Woodson-Luster, Giorgio Tavecchio

Extension:

·         Khalil Mack EDGE (5year 106M extension added after his 2018 year, which could be seen as a 6year 120M deal which would give him the best defensive player average at 20M/year, his 2018 cap number would be around 20M or 25M (depends on FA period) with a roster bonus)

Restructure:

·         Sean Smith CB (his current 2yr 17,5M deal without any guarantees would be turned in a new 2yr (1+1) 14M (7+7) deal with his 2018 salary guaranteed (7M), he is playing a lot better under Pagano and could be a better bet then Amerson or a new FA pick up)

 

With these moves we would have a roster like this:
QB: Derek Carr, EJ Manuel, Connor Cook
RB: Marshawn Lynch, Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington, Elijah Hood
FB: Jamize Olawale
WR: Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Seth Roberts, Cordarrelle Patterson, Johnny Holton, Isaac Whitney
TE: Jared Cook, Clive Walford
OT: Donald Penn, Marshall Newhouse, David Sharpe, Vadal Alexander, Jylan Ware
OG: Kelechi Osemele, Gabe Jackson, Denver Kirkland
OC: Rodney Hudson, Jon Feliciano
EDGE: Khalil Mack, Bruce Irvin, Shilique Calhoun, James Cowser
DL: Mario Edwards Jr., Justin Ellis, Eddie Vanderdoes, Treyvon Hester, Jihad Ward, Darius Latham, Fadol Brown
LB: NaVarro Bowman, Cory James, Nicholas Morrow, Marquel Lee, Xavier Woodson-Luster
CB: Sean Smith, Gareon Conley, TJ Carrie, Dexter McDonald, Antonio Hamilton
S: Karl Joseph, Obi Melifonwu, Shalom Luani, Erik Harris
K: Giorgio Tavecchio
P: Marquette King
LS: Jon Condo

We would also have around 9M cap space and the hole rookie class to sign, which leave us with close to zero capital in the FA market. This fits alright with RM’s way of „drafting and re-signing our own”, rather then the FA market spending…
The offense should be good after a few rookie pickups and the retool in the coaching staff.
The defense should also be better after Pagano install his scheme and RM get some guys via draft.
I won’t try to predict some back of the roster type signings for peanuts and I clearly can’t see any big signing, so while I know it is not realistic, to completely avoid the FA period I will just do that now.

 

Draft:

The biggest need before the draft would be a true every down MLB IMO. Bowman is a solid veteran and improved our D once he settled in, but he is not a blue chip player with his speed anymore. Interior pass rusher, future LOT CB help, TE help and WR depth, some S depth would be needed too. For the interior pass rusher role we have multiple young guys, so I think RM will want to give some more time to Edwards, Vanderdoes and Hester some time. Penn still plays well and I think the biggest issue with the OL this year is the ZBS concept Downing installed and the missed TC/preseason practice.
I also wanted to attack this draft with the pressure Reggie McKenzie should, could feel. He needs to come away with quality, early contributors and hope for Conley and Obi to show up in their 2nd season, because if JDR gets fired after 2018 and RM can only show up his Carr&Mack picks by that time, he might also be in trouble…
 

1st round: Roquan Smith LB 6’1 225 Georgia
He could be our long term solution at MLB/ILB, our Reuben Foster without the off field stuff. He can stop the run, cover sideline to sideline, he is a complet package. He could play along Bowman in 2018 and take over after that. James or Morrow could be his pair in nickel packages and that would give us a really solid pass cover in the middle. Finally RB screens and TE passes wouldn’t be sure completions…I know Reggie McKenzie is not drafting LB early, but I also hope that he finally sees how much we need a steady presence at MLB. Also I mentioned how important it is to get guys, who can play well and early in ’18.
Alternative option: Christian Wilkins DL, Mike McGlinchey OT, Rashaan Evans LB

2nd round: Simmie Cobbs Jr. WR 6’4 220 Indiana
I know that we have Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, but I think we need to add this guy in the mix and that he is a great value here. He would give a really nice option for our new OC. He could be used as an outside WR obviously, so Cooper could be used in the slot. He could be used as a flex TE with his size and could create mismatches. He could give Crabs a run for his money as the 3rd down go to guy with his size, 50-50 ball ability. He could elevate the offense with a creative OC and could help settle in Carr again.
Alternative options: Mark Andrews TE, Dallas Goedert TE, Marcell Ateman WR, Deon Cain WR

3rd round: Quenton Meeks CB 6’1 195 Stanford
Lot will change in the CB rankings from now to draft day. I like the size of this guy and wanted to get a CB around here. He could be the 4th guy in 2018 and could make Sean run for his money in 2019. You can never have enough solid CB’s in this game and a 4th CB can have nice impact, especially if he can start to challenge the #2 with some time during the season.
Alternative options: Iman Marshall CB, Kevin Toliver CB, Brandon Facyson CB, Anhony Averett CB

4th round: Tyrell Crosby OT 6’5 310
He could eventually be Donald Penn’s replacement after 2018. This is the first pick where the 2018 contribution part is in question, however he could give Newhouse, Alexander and Sharpe a run at RT. We need a somewhat lighter, more agile guy at back up LT, since Sharpe is not gonna cut it. Ware is an option, but we need better insurance IMO.
Alternative options: Chukwuma Okorafor OT, Andre Dillard OT, Desmond Harrison OT

5th round: We curently don’t have a 5th rounder for 2018

Right now we have two 6th round picks and one 7th rounder. With the possible compensational picks we could, should have even more picks in these rounds. We could move u pin the 5th with them or just stay put and get 4, 5 or 6 guys in the last rounds. I would target EDGE depth, S depth, interior DL depth (NT or/and 5-4tech), could also bring in a TE to compete with Pharaoh Brown for roster spot.

 

We would have a roster like this for TC:

QB: Derek Carr, EJ Manuel, Connor Cook
The new OC should bring back the 2016 version of Carr and the offense should start clicking again. Cook would have to work hard for his roster spot.

RB: Marshawn Lynch, Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington, Elijah Hood
Lynch plays well recently, so I think he stays and could have a nice final year. The Smurfs will have to work hard this offseason, because their 2017 season was not what we all expected. I would activate Hood if he plays well in TC/pre season.

FB: Jamize Olawale
Could have a bigger role under the new OC and with the departure of Lee Smith.

WR: Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Simmie Cobbs Jr., Seth Roberts, Cordarrelle Patterson, Johnny Holton, Isaac Whitney, Keon Hatcher etc
This unit should be a really strong one with the addition of SCJr. and the new coaching staff on O. Holton, Whitney, Hatcher would have a really hard time to find a roster spot.

TE: Jared Cook, Clive Walford, Pharaoh Brown, rookie
Cook would be the starter obviously, buta s we saw recently Clive can be a solid TE. I would expect lots of 2 TE looks with DeFilippo, where they could be dangerous.

OT: Donald Penn, Marshall Newhouse, Tyrell Crosby, David Sharpe, Vadal Alexander, Jylan Ware
2 veterans and a couple of young guys to battle out the 4 roster spot. Sharpe and Alexander could get some OG looks in TC IMO, especially if Crosby plays well.

OG: Kelechi Osemele, Gabe Jackson, Denver Kirkland
The starters are in place, Kirkland could see competition from the OT spot as I mentioned there.

OC: Rodney Hudson, Jon Feliciano
Set.

EDGE: Khalil Mack, Bruce Irvin, Shilique Calhoun, James Cowser, rookie
Mack and Irvin is a good tandem, Calhoun and Cowser plays alright this year, but a rookie to push them can easily be added. TC, preseason should determine the 2 best depth options.

DL: Mario Edwards Jr., Justin Ellis, Eddie Vanderdoes, Treyvon Hester, Jihad Ward, Darius Latham, Fadol Brown, rookies
I think the Edwards-Ellis-Vanderdoes starting DL is set, however Hester could give Eddie a run for his spot. Ward, Latham, Brown and the new guys (1 NT, 1 DT/DE) could battle out the remaining 2 spots. I like the group against the run, but need improvement in pass rush from basically everyone. Eddie and Hester could, should provide the biggest improvement there IMO.

LB: NaVarro Bowman, Roquan Smith, Cory James, Nicholas Morrow, Marquel Lee, Xavier Woodson-Luster
Bowman and Smith could start day 1 and form a solid duo. Master and padawan J
James, Morrow and Lee could give a really solid depth to this unit and good ST play also.

CB: Sean Smith, Gareon Conley, TJ Carrie, Quenton Meeks, Dexter McDonald, Antonio Hamilton
Sean, Conley and Carrie would play the majority of the snaps early on, but Meeks could increase his role if he plays well enough. Also the McDonald, Meeks duo could be solid 4th, 5th options. Hamilton could give McDonald a run if he can stay healthy…

S: Karl Joseph, Obi Melifonwu, Shalom Luani, Erik Harris, rookies
If Karl and Obi can form the tandem we hope for this unit should be alright. If the coaching staff or Reggie has any doubt they need to go out and sign a veteran in FA early. Adrian Phillips could be a solid option, since he won’t command huge money and has a connection with Pagano. In this mock I went with the Karl-Obi tandem with Luani in the mix obviously, because I think all of them are capable players, with great speed and potential. Our coaches need to work and develope them.
K: Giorgio Tavecchio
P: Marquette King
LS: Jon Condo
KR: Cordarrelle Patterson
PR: Jalen Richard
No issues here in the ST department, but Richard needs to work on those fumbles in the offseason big time.

 

Let me know what do you think?!

[Rich7sena]

Thoughts:

• I'd rather cut Smith than restructure him. He's too limited a player for my tastes.
• Not a fan of going second level linebacker in the first. ' don't think Roquan Smith is a great prospect and I'd rather target a player like Jerome Baker in day 2 or sign a starter in free agency.
• I don't like not going after another complimentary pass rusher early in the draft. Whether inside or outside, another player needs to be added to supplement one of the league's worst pass rushes.
• Tyrell Crosby is round 4 is highly unrealistic. He's creeping into the top 15 for me.

[Darbsk]

I think it's pretty realistic with the monies and resigns, I'd echo what Rich7sena said though and that I'd like to see another potential impact player inside. I'm not overly familiar with the WR Cobbs but we clearly need another option there to add to Crabs and Coop, Roberts is simply not cutting it this year which is a shame as I think we're all rooting for him after his injury heroics last year.

I'd like to have seen what FA acquisitions you would have considered too, I'd be looking at a vet safety, a LB to add to the competition and maybe depending on who is available a rotation pass rusher. I think we'll likely see a vet CB added too though I can't see us adding one of the top shelf guys.

[Silver&Black88]

No offense but I think we'd be dead in the water.  Think Smith is slow now?  Wait til next year.  Rather roll the dice by cutting him and restructuring Amerson.  At least he has youth.  Mixed feelings personally about Carrie.  Don't think he's good enough for that contract but we can't afford to lose someone playing solid at a position of need.  Would much prefer fortifying our interior DL and edge depth than take a 2nd level LB as Rich said.  Irvin has been playing nice and I'm fine with supplementing our guys with non 1st or 2nd round talent.  We get pushed around inside too much and don't generate enough interior pass rush.  I think that is where we need to address.  I understand we have hella young guys, but none of them are high quality.

[Humble_Beast]

got new OC and good draft

[Humble_Beast]

simple version of my mock

Fire Del Rio, hire Josh Mcdaniels

1. Guys gone: Autry, Ellis, Carrie, Jano, Nelson, Amerson, Smith, Roberts
2. Guy resigned: Bowman 2 year deal

Draft:

1. R1: Vita Vea DT
2. R2: Jaire Alexander CB
3. R3: Danny Johnson CB- small school kid but perfect for the slot

Free agency:

as expected Reggie should wait until after the first week of free agency, when players aren't getting overpaid
sign vets that aren't washed at these spot: WR, DT, CB, S 

have about 10-12 M to sign a few of those vets

[Rolni]

Thanks for the feedback guys!

I will keep them in mind when I go for it next time after the season is over.

[big_palooka]

13 hours ago, Silver&Black88 said:

No offense but I think we'd be dead in the water.  Think Smith is slow now?  Wait til next year.  Rather roll the dice by cutting him and restructuring Amerson.  At least he has youth.  Mixed feelings personally about Carrie.  Don't think he's good enough for that contract but we can't afford to lose someone playing solid at a position of need.  Would much prefer fortifying our interior DL and edge depth than take a 2nd level LB as Rich said.  Irvin has been playing nice and I'm fine with supplementing our guys with non 1st or 2nd round talent.  We get pushed around inside too much and don't generate enough interior pass rush.  I think that is where we need to address.  I understand we have hella young guys, but none of them are high quality.

Agree here. The goal needs to be getting faster on both sides of the ball. Keeping Smith and Bowman, is just more of the same to me. 

[Rich7sena]

33 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Agree here. The goal needs to be getting faster on both sides of the ball. Keeping Smith and Bowman, is just more of the same to me. 

Bowman has been the best inside linebacker the team has had in a while. He's not sideline to sideline (those are rare), but his consistent competence is a good table setter for the defense, as a whole.

[big_palooka]

33 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

Bowman has been the best inside linebacker the team has had in a while. He's not sideline to sideline (those are rare), but his consistent competence is a good table setter for the defense, as a whole.

That means nothing. The ILB spot has been underwhelming for a decade. Bowman is committing to more of the same with this team. Stopgap after stopgap without addressing the bigger picture. I'm tired of this approach. It is a practice in futility.

[Rich7sena]

57 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

That means nothing. The ILB spot has been underwhelming for a decade. Bowman is committing to more of the same with this team. Stopgap after stopgap without addressing the bigger picture. I'm tired of this approach. It is a practice in futility.

The bigger picture is the defensive line. Unless it's an elite player back there, even a premium linebacker won't make much of a difference.

[Humble_Beast]

Bowman hasn't looked old at all...

[Darbsk]

Could be just a coincidence with Bowman manning the middle and having the green dot but we've not been caught out of position nearly so frequently over the last 6 or 7 games I've watched. While it's clear he isn't the same calibre athlete he was a number of years ago, I'd like to keep him around as he is clearly the field general back there and though he's a yard slow that leadership is vital for us IMHO. I'm all for upgrading the safety and corner position with more speed but Bowman is a strength at this point, not just making up the numbers - even if we draft a young uber-athlete he'll benefit from learning from Navarro for a season at least. 

[Silver&Black88]

3 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

The bigger picture is the defensive line. Unless it's an elite player back there, even a premium linebacker won't make much of a difference.

This.  So much this.  And it really stings since we have so many young guys there. That investment.  MEJ, Ward, Vanderdoes.  That's 2 2nd's and a 3rd.  I know they're all still young and have time to improve but its a tough pill to swallow that we're so weak there despite the resources allocated.  Ward and Calhoun look improved though so there's that.

[big_palooka]

6 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

The bigger picture is the defensive line. Unless it's an elite player back there, even a premium linebacker won't make much of a difference.

Don't disagree about the Dline. But doesn't mean I want to see them re-sign a MLB who's best football in behind him.

IMO...FA is about finding guys who's best football is in front of them. Not wasting time and resources on aging stopgaps.