2024 post-draft mock

[Armbar]

Browns:

2nd: Payton Wilson WLB

3rd: Zak Zinter OG

5th: Johnny Wilson WR

6th: Jaheim Bell TE

7th: James Williams S/SLB

7th: Jaylen Harrell DE/SLB

[Sugashane]

So for the Bears I took several trade backs that happened after the picks, so the team trading up would actually have been able to make a slightly higher move up for the same capital. I also traded up to get Cooper DeJean with my 2025 1st but I will assume this trade doesn't get taken for this.

 

1.1 - QB Caleb Williams

1.9 - WR Rome Odunze

3.94 -  LB Payton Wilson

4.122 - OT Giovanni Manu

4.123 - HB Braelon Allen

6.185 - WR/TE Johnny Wilson

6.190 - WR Brenden Rice

7.219 - EDGE Myles Cole

 

[Dr A W Niloc]

I think the New Orleans draft is underrated.  I'd take a better QB and WR later but, beyond that, there isn't much I'd change.

Pik Rk-PFFR DraftBz 40Yd  New Orleans       College   Pstn Dif  Tall Lbs
            Rk-Rtng
14.  2-88.3  4-88.6 5.20  Taliese Fuaga     Oregon St  RT4 -21  6'6" 334
41.  5-88.8  4-88.4 4.55  KoolAid McKinstry Alabama    CB5  -9  6'1" 195
150  6-85.7  3 85.5 4.60  Jeremiah Trotter  Clemson   LB12  +4  6'0" 230
170  8-87.8 12-81.9 4.62  Jordan Travis     FloridaSt  QB8 -59  6'1" 212
175  3-90.5 44-74.7 4.55  Hayden Hatten     Idaho     WR21 ---  6'2" 205
199  3-88.1 34-80.5 5.10  Khristian Boyd    N Iowa    NT18 ---  6'4" 317
239  3-84.7 60-75.4 5.10  Josiah Ezirim     EKentucky OT31 ---  6'6" 329

 

[Raves]

On 5/15/2024 at 8:26 PM, Dr A W Niloc said:

I think the New Orleans draft is underrated.  I'd take a better QB and WR later but, beyond that, there isn't much I'd change.

Pik Rk-PFFR DraftBz 40Yd  New Orleans       College   Pstn Dif  Tall Lbs
            Rk-Rtng
14.  2-88.3  4-88.6 5.20  Taliese Fuaga     Oregon St  RT4 -21  6'6" 334
41.  5-88.8  4-88.4 4.55  KoolAid McKinstry Alabama    CB5  -9  6'1" 195
150  6-85.7  3 85.5 4.60  Jeremiah Trotter  Clemson   LB12  +4  6'0" 230
170  8-87.8 12-81.9 4.62  Jordan Travis     FloridaSt  QB8 -59  6'1" 212
175  3-90.5 44-74.7 4.55  Hayden Hatten     Idaho     WR21 ---  6'2" 205
199  3-88.1 34-80.5 5.10  Khristian Boyd    N Iowa    NT18 ---  6'4" 317
239  3-84.7 60-75.4 5.10  Josiah Ezirim     EKentucky OT31 ---  6'6" 329

 

I think Rattler was the better choice for QB at that range just because he has higher upside than Travis, though Travis is the one more likely to have a long career even if it's as a backup.

[tyler735]

On 5/15/2024 at 7:26 PM, Dr A W Niloc said:

I think the New Orleans draft is underrated.  I'd take a better QB and WR later but, beyond that, there isn't much I'd change.

Pik Rk-PFFR DraftBz 40Yd  New Orleans       College   Pstn Dif  Tall Lbs
            Rk-Rtng
14.  2-88.3  4-88.6 5.20  Taliese Fuaga     Oregon St  RT4 -21  6'6" 334
41.  5-88.8  4-88.4 4.55  KoolAid McKinstry Alabama    CB5  -9  6'1" 195
150  6-85.7  3 85.5 4.60  Jeremiah Trotter  Clemson   LB12  +4  6'0" 230
170  8-87.8 12-81.9 4.62  Jordan Travis     FloridaSt  QB8 -59  6'1" 212
175  3-90.5 44-74.7 4.55  Hayden Hatten     Idaho     WR21 ---  6'2" 205
199  3-88.1 34-80.5 5.10  Khristian Boyd    N Iowa    NT18 ---  6'4" 317
239  3-84.7 60-75.4 5.10  Josiah Ezirim     EKentucky OT31 ---  6'6" 329

 

Can't agree on Jordan Travis being a better QB than Spencer Rattler. During the draft process, I wanted to like Jordan Travis due to his athletic ability and seeing Florida State doing well with him behind center. I just don't see NFL caliber arm talent with Jordan Travis. Reminds me a bit of Ian Book (another recent Saints draft pick at QB). Very successful college QB, but just didn't have the skillset needed to make it in the NFL.

I can't see any scenario where Jordan Travis is an NFL starting QB due to his lack of arm talent. Spencer Rattler on the other hand, has a ton of talent as a thrower to go along with plus mobility. He has the arm to be a legit starting QB in the NFL. Whether or not the rest of the things needed above the shoulders clicks for him in the NFL is another question, but there are definitely some positive traits to work with in that regard. Finding someone with Spencer Rattler's talent in the 5th round at this point is a huge steal for the Saints. I'd have been so pissed if the Saints drafted Jordan Travis with Spencer Rattler on the board still.

[scar988]

22 hours ago, tyler735 said:

Can't agree on Jordan Travis being a better QB than Spencer Rattler. During the draft process, I wanted to like Jordan Travis due to his athletic ability and seeing Florida State doing well with him behind center. I just don't see NFL caliber arm talent with Jordan Travis. Reminds me a bit of Ian Book (another recent Saints draft pick at QB). Very successful college QB, but just didn't have the skillset needed to make it in the NFL.

I can't see any scenario where Jordan Travis is an NFL starting QB due to his lack of arm talent. Spencer Rattler on the other hand, has a ton of talent as a thrower to go along with plus mobility. He has the arm to be a legit starting QB in the NFL. Whether or not the rest of the things needed above the shoulders clicks for him in the NFL is another question, but there are definitely some positive traits to work with in that regard. Finding someone with Spencer Rattler's talent in the 5th round at this point is a huge steal for the Saints. I'd have been so pissed if the Saints drafted Jordan Travis with Spencer Rattler on the board still.

I don't think either guy amounts to anyting more than a career backup in the NFL.

[tyler735]

15 minutes ago, scar988 said:

I don't think either guy amounts to anyting more than a career backup in the NFL.

Rattler has the talent/ceiling to be a starting QB. He may not reach that, but the talent is there. Jordan Travis doesn’t have that type of ceiling and is basically best case scenario a Josh Johnson type career backup QB.

[Duluther]

1 hour ago, tyler735 said:

Rattler has the talent/ceiling to be a starting QB. He may not reach that, but the talent is there. Jordan Travis doesn’t have that type of ceiling and is basically best case scenario a Josh Johnson type career backup QB.

The percentile outcomes for both are almost exclusively backup, though. And I'd muuuuch rather have a player and person like JT as my backup than Rattler. Rattler as a 4th-round role of the dice for a cap-stricken team isn't a move without potential payoff, but you're hoping for an outcome that's only in like Rattler's 90+ percentiles; the Jets' taking JT in their context is a very safe move. 

[tyler735]

23 minutes ago, Duluther said:

The percentile outcomes for both are almost exclusively backup, though. And I'd muuuuch rather have a player and person like JT as my backup than Rattler. Rattler as a 4th-round role of the dice for a cap-stricken team isn't a move without potential payoff, but you're hoping for an outcome that's only in like Rattler's 90+ percentiles; the Jets' taking JT in their context is a very safe move. 

Give me the QB with the more important NFL caliber traits/talent. Also what does that even mean “person like JT as my backup than Rattler”? People are getting such a hard on for this notion that Rattler isn’t a good teammate because of some dumb high school reality show. Everything I’ve seen regarding his time at South Carolina has described him as a good teammate and leader that worked hard to improve while he was there.

Looking at some of the top QB’s in the NFL in recent years, we have Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, and Brock Purdy being selected 3rd round or later. Even if the hit rate isn’t super high (it really isn’t for QB’s regardless of round), I’m all for taking a QB with great arm talent and plus mobility that has shown glimpses of being a top prospect during his college career.

Also based off reports after the draft, the Falcons, Broncos, and Vikings all liked Rattler even if he wasn’t viewed as a 1st rounder by those teams. Just because Rattler slid to day 3 doesn’t mean every QB needy team viewed him as a day 3 pick. Had the Giants taken JJ McCarthy/Michael Penix, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to have seen one of the aforementioned teams take Rattler on day 2. 

 

Edited May 29 by tyler735

[Duluther]

1 minute ago, tyler735 said:

Also based off reports after the draft, the Falcons, Broncos, and Vikings all liked Rattler even if he wasn’t viewed as a 1st rounder by those teams. Just because Rattler slid to day 3 doesn’t mean every QB needy team viewed him as a day 3 pick. Had the Giants taken JJ McCarthy/Michael Penix, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to have seen one of the aforementioned teams take Rattler on day 2. 

This is what every fan of every team says about their later acquisitions. "He was a day 3 pick but he wasn't a day 3 player" equates to hoping/projecting the player will reach his uppermost percentiles of outcomes - same thing I said in the post prior.

3 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

Also what does that even mean “person like JT as my backup than Rattler”? People are getting such a hard on for this notion that Rattler isn’t a good teammate because of some dumb high school reality show. Everything I’ve seen regarding his time at South Carolina has described him as a good teammate and leader that worked hard to improve while he was there.

You know exactly what it means. When it comes to player character evaluation, we can only go off of what little access and reports we're given. It's harsh and faulty to do this off of so little, but there's little alternative other than throwing it out entirely, but with QBs character is too important to not consider. And while you have your reports of Rattler being a high character at SCar, there are as many reports of the opposite at Oklahoma, not stemming from a reality tv show but the team and university. We'll have to wait for hindsight to see which reports become indicitive of Rattler's long-term character; that said, reports exist that legitimize concern over his character. Feel free to dismiss this as I don't care to further widdle down this microscope on a random backup. 

8 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

Looking at some of the top QB’s in the NFL in recent years, we have Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, and Brock Purdy being selected 3rd round or later. Even if the hit rate isn’t super high (it really isn’t for QB’s regardless of round), I’m all for taking a QB with great arm talent and plus mobility that has shown glimpses of being a top prospect during his college career.

Certainly. This is a good general plan of action. Of your curated group, only Dak had any character concerns (i.e., his DUI that was later dismissed) and the other four (and Dak over time) proved to be extremely high character players (if not all quirky). Weird to curate such a list when we were just talking about character concerns... in this aspect, Rattler is more akin, and in this way alone, is more likely to fit in with other late round selections: Stetson Bennet, Kellen Mond, Jake Fromm, etc. 

It goes without saying that character is only a piece of a many piece puzzle, and I don't care to glorify it beyond reason. Outcomes exist where both of the following are true: Rattler is a low character QB; Rattler is a good+ starting QB.

[scar988]

2 hours ago, tyler735 said:

Rattler has the talent/ceiling to be a starting QB. He may not reach that, but the talent is there. Jordan Travis doesn’t have that type of ceiling and is basically best case scenario a Josh Johnson type career backup QB.

He's also like 24 and was never really able to show that talent at South Carolina or Oklahoma. He's not really that good. (Neither is Jordan Travis FWIW.) Past the top 4 guys of Penix, Caleb, Drake and Jayden, I didn't see a single QB who was worth a high pick nor going to be a long-term starter in the NFL. It's not a rip on Rattler to say that he'll be a career backup Chase Daniels type either. It's just what he is. 

15 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

Give me the QB with the more important NFL caliber traits/talent. Also what does that even mean “person like JT as my backup than Rattler”? People are getting such a hard on for this notion that Rattler isn’t a good teammate because of some dumb high school reality show. Everything I’ve seen regarding his time at South Carolina has described him as a good teammate and leader that worked hard to improve while he was there.

Looking at some of the top QB’s in the NFL in recent years, we have Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, and Brock Purdy being selected 3rd round or later. Even if the hit rate isn’t super high (it really isn’t for QB’s regardless of round), I’m all for taking a QB with great arm talent and plus mobility that has shown glimpses of being a top prospect during his college career.

 

 

 

Falcons were only considering Rattler for backup duties long-term. Just because a team likes a guy doesn't mean they like him as a starter.

[scar988]

47 minutes ago, Duluther said:

The percentile outcomes for both are almost exclusively backup, though. And I'd muuuuch rather have a player and person like JT as my backup than Rattler. Rattler as a 4th-round role of the dice for a cap-stricken team isn't a move without potential payoff, but you're hoping for an outcome that's only in like Rattler's 90+ percentiles; the Jets' taking JT in their context is a very safe move. 

It's more likely that Rattler becomes a Taylor Heinicke type player than an actual starter in the NFL. Let alone a competent NFL starter.

[tyler735]

5 minutes ago, scar988 said:

He's also like 24 and was never really able to show that talent at South Carolina or Oklahoma.

He’s 23. Maybe you’re thinking of Penix who is 24? Rattler displayed his talent very well his Freshman season at Oklahoma. He was beat out by Caleb Williams (the best QB prospect in several years if not decades). Rattler transferred to a school that was in shambles on the OL. 

5 minutes ago, scar988 said:

He's not really that good. (Neither is Jordan Travis FWIW.) Past the top 4 guys of Penix, Caleb, Drake and Jayden, I didn't see a single QB who was worth a high pick nor going to be a long-term starter in the NFL.

No offense, but I can’t take you QB evals seriously after the Ridder fiasco on here.

5 minutes ago, scar988 said:

It's not a rip on Rattler to say that he'll be a career backup Chase Daniels type either. It's just what he is. 

If he ends up as a Gardner Minshew type QB, which doesn’t seem far fetched, then it’s still a very good pick in the 5th round. There are a lot of similarities between Rattler and Minshew with the biggest difference being Rattler has much better arm strength/arm talent. 

5 minutes ago, scar988 said:

Falcons were only considering Rattler for backup duties long-term. Just because a team likes a guy doesn't mean they like him as a starter.

Obviously we will never know how this would have played out, but if the Falcons truly were high on him like the reports suggest, he very well could have been a day 2 pick for them if they would have drafted correctly and tried to build around Cousins and not against him. Rattler as a day 2 pick would have been a developmental guy behind Cousins to see if he could be the QB of the future.

[scar988]

6 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

No offense, but I can’t take you QB evals seriously after the Ridder fiasco on here.

I can't take you seriously because you're a Saints troll. Rattler will be your Ridder. Have fun with him. Let your homerism let you think he can be a good starting QB like I did for Ridder.

 

One bad QB eval doesn't make me a bad QB evaluator, btw. I was completely right about 2021. Only having Lawrence in the top 5, Fields was a mid-1st, Lance a mid-2 (injuries) and Wilson as a late 3 who reminded me of Trubisky. I was right about 2022 heading in where I didn't like any of the QBs. I was right about 2023 with Stroud as my QB1 in that class. But we're all going to hit and miss. 

[scar988]

8 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

He’s 23. Maybe you’re thinking of Penix who is 24? Rattler displayed his talent very well his Freshman season at Oklahoma. He was beat out by Caleb Williams (the best QB prospect in several years if not decades). Rattler transferred to a school that was in shambles on the OL. 

If he ends up as a Gardner Minshew type QB, which doesn’t seem far fetched, then it’s still a very good pick in the 5th round. There are a lot of similarities between Rattler and Minshew with the biggest difference being Rattler has much better arm strength/arm talent. 

Obviously we will never know how this would have played out, but if the Falcons truly were high on him like the reports suggest, he very well could have been a day 2 pick for them if they would have drafted correctly and tried to build around Cousins and not against him. Rattler as a day 2 pick would have been a developmental guy behind Cousins to see if he could be the QB of the future.

He still wasn't very good.

Minshew as a ceiling isn't a high enough ceiling for a day 2 pick. I had Rattler as a day 3 guy. (5th round grade)

They likely weren't looking at him as a day 2 pick. At least from what I've heard.