Random Packer News & Notes

[packfanfb]

26 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Why do you assume the Packers were in talks with the Colts?

If they were in talks with the Colts, how do you know it wasn't a due diligence thing? 

Why the **** would I want a dynamic but expensive combo at Running Back? They're not going to play a bunch of snaps together. 

I think you have look at this through Gute's eyes. He has obviously shown willingness to put money into the RB position (Aaron Jones) while at the same time has bought into not having high-priced WRs in your offense as necessity for success (i.e. our current WR room). We have seen Gute get involved in trade discussions for big-time players when he thinks that guy is a difference maker (i.e. Mack). 

I think the smoke around Taylor is real and Gute saw an opportunity to kill two birds in his mind: (1) upgrade on Dillon who has otherwise been a failure if you judge him by his draft status, and (2) get a long-term workhorse replacement for Jones (who is likely gone after this season), during a time when the RB market is probably the lowest it is ever going to be. 

[Arthur Penske]

4 hours ago, packfanfb said:

Could be that too, although I wondered if a Gary extension would actually save them money this year as well, unless they plan to add some additional coin on to this year's cap. 

 

4 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Getting close on the Gary extension?

How would an in season Jordan Love extension mpact things here? Or is that more future years?

[AlexGreen#20]

10 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

I think you have look at this through Gute's eyes. He has obviously shown willingness to put money into the RB position (Aaron Jones) while at the same time has bought into not having high-priced WRs in your offense as necessity for success (i.e. our current WR room). We have seen Gute get involved in trade discussions for big-time players when he thinks that guy is a difference maker (i.e. Mack). 

I think the smoke around Taylor is real and Gute saw an opportunity to kill two birds in his mind: (1) upgrade on Dillon who has otherwise been a failure if you judge him by his draft status, and (2) get a long-term workhorse replacement for Jones (who is likely gone after this season), during a time when the RB market is probably the lowest it is ever going to be. 

Some money into the RB position. The cost to sign Taylor would blow our RB budget WAY higher than it's been in like 30 years. 

1. Why would we spend that kind of capital to upgrade our #2 Running Back? Dillon is fine as a #2 Running Back. I hate the pick and agree he's a disappointment. But that's no reason to throw good money after bad?

2. Smart teams are looking to move on from their backs in years 4 and 5. Not too bring them in. 

[15412]

We wouldn't be upgrading our # 2 RB.  We'd be adding another #1 RB, an elite player at his position.  Not only to have two fresh elite RB's late in every game but for both quality depth and added usable talent.  We'd be throwing good money after elite.  Again, they were in talks for a reason.  Compensation to both team and player is key, and I wouldn't pay too much to either.

Taylor is what, 24 years old?   He's not good, he's elite.  On a reasonable deal every team wants him and for good reason.

[Mdpackfan22]

20 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Some money into the RB position. The cost to sign Taylor would blow our RB budget WAY higher than it's been in like 30 years. 

1. Why would we spend that kind of capital to upgrade our #2 Running Back? Dillon is fine as a #2 Running Back. I hate the pick and agree he's a disappointment. But that's no reason to throw good money after bad?

2. Smart teams are looking to move on from their backs in years 4 and 5. Not too bring them in. 

AJ Dillon is terrible and if Aaron Jones is out for any extended period of time, our offense will be average at best. Better to spend money on RBs now when our WR room is dirt cheap. Sign JT to a 3 year extension, by the time his contract is up, Watson and Doubs will be up for new contracts.

[Old Guy]

Just now, Mdpackfan22 said:

AJ Dillon is terrible and if Aaron Jones is out for any extended period of time, our offense will be average at best. Better to spend money on RBs now when our WR room is dirt cheap. Sign JT to a 3 year extension, by the time his contract is up, Watson and Doubs will be up for new contracts.

Doubs and Watson are eligible for extensions after next season. So is Tom. TJ Slaton will probably want an extension after this year if he keeps playing the way he hasLove is going to want an extension after next season or before. Gary needs an extension. Clarke is going to need an extension after this year too.

No way I'm spending money and compensation for Taylor. 

[AlexGreen#20]

2 minutes ago, Mdpackfan22 said:

AJ Dillon is terrible and if Aaron Jones is out for any extended period of time, our offense will be average at best. Better to spend money on RBs now when our WR room is dirt cheap. Sign JT to a 3 year extension, by the time his contract is up, Watson and Doubs will be up for new contracts.

AJ Dillon isn't terrible. He's a perfectly adequate NFL back. 

Aaron Jones doesn't move the needle that much. He's not a 50 point swing player. There's like 10 Non QBs that are that in the league, and none of them play RB. 

[skibrett15]

3 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

AJ Dillon isn't terrible. He's a perfectly adequate NFL back. 

Aaron Jones doesn't move the needle that much. He's not a 50 point swing player. There's like 10 Non QBs that are that in the league, and none of them play RB. 

Piling on here but if Aaron Jones is out and our offense is "average at best", um who cares?  Makes no sense to invest at RB.

 

Eventually I think there's a good zag here when the RB veteran market actually bottoms out.  But for now, there's no reason to add a RB at veteran prices.

[Mdpackfan22]

2 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

Doubs and Watson are eligible for extensions after next season. So is Tom. TJ Slaton will probably want an extension after this year if he keeps playing the way he hasLove is going to want an extension after next season or before. Gary needs an extension. Clarke is going to need an extension after this year too.

No way I'm spending money and compensation for Taylor. 

Bakh and Aaron Jones will be off the books by then.

I doubt Kenny Clark is getting a 3rd contract, goes against Packers MO. No doubt Bakh 3rd contract is in the back of everyones mind. Potential tag and trade 

TJ Slaton will be an interesting situation. If he keeps improving at the rate he has, he'll be in the top half of run stopping DTs. We'll see what kind of contract he commands 

 

2024 will realistically be our best chance at a SB while our young players are cheap. Jonathon Taylor would make us legit contenders next year.

[AlexGreen#20]

20 minutes ago, 15412 said:

We wouldn't be upgrading our # 2 RB.  We'd be adding another #1 RB, an elite player at his position.  Not only to have two fresh elite RB's late in every game but for both quality depth and added usable talent.  We'd be throwing good money after elite.  Again, they were in talks for a reason.  Compensation to both team and player is key, and I wouldn't pay too much to either.

Taylor is what, 24 years old?   He's not good, he's elite.  On a reasonable deal every team wants him and for good reason.

Even if we put aside the issue that paying RBs is stupid.

What if we get the Jonathan Taylor from 2022 and not the Jonathan Taylor from 2021? 

We're talking about a guy with 4x 300+ carry seasons in the last 5 years. Does he have anything left? 

As far as him being elite, he wasn't elite last year. 

[skibrett15]

Gonna type this out again for those wondering "why 4 void years??!"

Two things happening here:

1. Reducing the current cap charge by adding the 4 void years allows you to take a player who is 2.5% of the cap (example numbers) and stretch them to 0.5% of the cap in exchange for spending some of that money in future seasons.  Difference is that in the last seasons of void years the number is actually <0.5% because the cap has gone up.  So you get some benefit of savings now which are a greater % of the current cap.  This would backfire if the cap were to shrink.
2. Current cap vs next years cap vs following years cap - these are all essentially the same thing.  Contracts can be structured (within reason, and there is a limit but we aren't close) so that you can spend this year's cap $$ or next year's cap $$ or even some of the following year's cap $$ in order to sign a player.  These all combine into the actual "money available for players" pool.  Look at the amt of GTD $$ in current Year X, year X+1, and year X+2  to get a sense of the team's spending and spending limits.  Money can be distributed across these years very easily, and pulled/pushed.  Void years factor in here to reduce the number in the current season and defer to later.  Just one mechanism that the Packers are starting to use.  Actually has very little to do with "kicking the can" These bills are due and due now, or they are due now and also in the future.  No tangible benefit to paying now when the money you save now by paying later just rolls into the future cap anyway.

[skibrett15]

7 minutes ago, Mdpackfan22 said:

Jonathon Taylor would make us legit contenders next year.

No RB is gonna make a team contenders/non contenders.  Either you have a great running OL or you don't.  RB is like the 6th OL member in terms of importance to the running success.

 

If the RB is also a dynamic pass catcher and pass blocker, that adds value outside of the norm and should command a premium.

 

Otherwise, you just go young and cheap!  Chiefs making it work with McKinnon (pass catcher), Pacheco (average), CEH (average).  Eagles have a similar setup!  And so on.

[Striker]

11 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Even if we put aside the issue that paying RBs is stupid.

What if we get the Jonathan Taylor from 2022 and not the Jonathan Taylor from 2021? 

We're talking about a guy with 4x 300+ carry seasons in the last 5 years. Does he have anything left? 

As far as him being elite, he wasn't elite last year. 

Folks also just need to look at the upcoming draft class. Yes, nothing is guaranteed, but you can find very good RBs round 2 and later because of how teams are valuing RBs. Hell, Javonte Williams, Breece Hall, and Kenneth Walker all fell to round 2.

Edited September 12, 2023 by Striker

[skibrett15]

1 minute ago, Striker said:

One could also just look at the upcoming draft class. Yes, nothing is guaranteed, but you can find very good RBs round 2 and later because of how teams are valuing RBs. Hell, Javonte Williams, Breece Hall, and Kenneth Walker all fell to round 2.

I'd argue RB in round 2 is way too high considering the talent at WR in those rounds

[Old Guy]

2 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

I'd argue RB in round 2 is way too high considering the talent at WR in those rounds

And how you can find solid to very good NFL RBs in round 4-7.