2018 NFL Draft Discussion

[Packerraymond]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not sure that's what he was getting at.  Look at it from this perspective, what position on WR has less of an impact on a game than a WR?  The closer you are to the ball, the bigger the impact you're going to have on the game generally speaking, and WRs are usually the furthest away from the ball.  At this point, we're talking about the luxury of drafting a WR in the first round.  And given our inconsistencies on defense, wouldn't it be more wise to take an EDGE or CB rather than a WR?  Hell, I think I'd probably take another DL over a WR.

I would rate OG, C, ILB, RB, K, P, LS, TE, FB, QB (for our sake as we'd only be drafting a backup) as less important positions. Therefore EDGE, DL, DB, OT are more important. I think most of the teams in the league would agree. However that is not far enough down the list where I don't take one in the 1st if that player were the BPA.

Literally ANY rookie that plays well for you on a rookie deal is a very valuable commodity in today's league regardless of position. If you got Davante Adams production from a 1st round pick and let him go in FA (hypothetical) thats a savings of 7-8 m a year for 4 years.

[MacReady]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

They're pretty cherry picked, first off in 2010 the 2nd round receivers were Arrelius Benn, Dexter McCluster and Golden Tate. Im pretty confident two busts and Tate don't average to those numbers

Dexter McCluster is a running back.  I was off on the yards by 100 somehow.  Benn/Tate had 35 touchdowns.  What's 35 divided by 10?  I probably did it by games played, not seasons.  Benn missed quite a few games. 

[MacReady]

Also, you're entirely missing the point that, on average, regardless of who it is or what the circumstances are, you're not missing insane amounts of production between first/second round receivers, so why take a receiver in round one?  Considering Watt/Miller/Mack/Bosa, I can guaran-damn-tee you're not finding such a minimal drop in production when comparing pass rushers to receivers.  I can also guaran-damn-tee you're not finding the same proximity of production when comparing non-skill positions when it comes to first/second round differences.

How many franchise left tackles were second, third, fourth... Round picks?  I can think of one off the top of my head, but only because he plays for us. 

Receivers are a dime a dozen, and you're finding better VALUE to DRAFT CAPITAL in later rounds at that position. 

I'm going to ask you a simple question because I'm sick of this argument already:

If the talent was the same, rank which positions would mean more to this team NEXT YEAR and the rest of Aaron's career.  What does that list look like? 

[CWood21]

11 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

I would rate OG, C, ILB, RB, K, P, LS, TE, FB, QB (for our sake as we'd only be drafting a backup) as less important positions. Therefore EDGE, DL, DB, OT are more important. I think most of the teams in the league would agree. However that is not far enough down the list where I don't take one in the 1st if that player were the BPA.

Literally ANY rookie that plays well for you on a rookie deal is a very valuable commodity in today's league regardless of position. If you got Davante Adams production from a 1st round pick and let him go in FA (hypothetical) thats a savings of 7-8 m a year for 4 years.

Realistically, we're not taking a K, P, LS, FB, or QB in the first round, so for the sake of the argument we can exclude them.  So that leaves OG, C, ILB, RB, and TE as legitimate options. I think you could make the argument that any of those positions are as important or possibly more important than WR. 

[Packerraymond]

1 minute ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Dexter McCluster is a running back.  I was off on the yards by 100 somehow.  Benn/Tate had 35 touchdowns.  What's 35 divided by 10?  I probably did it by games played, not seasons.  Benn missed quite a few games. 

McCluster was drafted as a WR, even still the 2nd round included no impact players. The 1st rounders you listed had an 80% hit rate on being elite, not just good.

How many SBs do the Bengals/Falcons have with Patrick Peterson? Or Tyron Smith? JJ Watt?

Probably still 0. One elite football player is one elite football player. You still need to build a team around any of them. Julio should have a ring, because the insane catch he made should've won ATL the game, but like Seattle running the football is a foreign concept to some play callers.

AJ Green has Andy Dalton as his QB, he's never winning a SB and it's not his fault.

Look at Tampa. They got Mike Evans, then they got their QB. They've got a nice group of defensive players. That's a team that's on the up, and drafting Evans surely won't hurt that franchise.

[Packerraymond]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Realistically, we're not taking a K, P, LS, FB, or QB in the first round, so for the sake of the argument we can exclude them.  So that leaves OG, C, ILB, RB, and TE as legitimate options. I think you could make the argument that any of those positions are as important or possibly more important than WR. 

Well then we agree to disagree. We won games with Lucas Patrick at LG, Richard Rodgers at TE, Don Jackson at RB, Robert Francois at ILB, but we lose our best WR and our offense clearly suffered. 

The whole "Aaron makes his WRs great" is wrong. Their chemistry makes them great. He can scramble the pocket and Jordy and Davante know just where he's going to put the ball, or Cobb knows exactly where to cut to. Aaron is not a Tom Brady, sit in the pocket and throw you open kind of guy, he expects a ton from his WRs, its rookies don't put up numbers here. WRs are important to Aaron's success because he's smart and realizes he can incorporate them into his game and make the offense even better.

[MacReady]

I'm not going to acknowledge that McCluster was drafted as a receiver anymore than Hester was drafted as a receiver.  McCluster had 109/181 rushing attempts in his last two college seasons.  That's not a WR.  And did you seriously just ask me if the Falcons win a Super Bowl with Watt?  Assuming full health, I'd be shocked if the Falcons couldn't win two Super Bowls with Watt.  That's like asking if I think Watt would have won a Super Bowl if the Texans had Ryan, and my answer is a resounding yes.  And you're saying that AJ Green relies too much on a QB to be effective?  HUH!  I never would have thought it!  Not out of a receiver, tell me it isn't so! 

Look at Tampa?  I'm looking at zero playoff appearances for Mike Evans.  What am I missing?  Where should I look?  What do you see that I don't? 

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Well then we agree to disagree. We won games with Lucas Patrick at LG, Richard Rodgers at TE, Don Jackson at RB, Robert Francois at ILB, but we lose our best WR and our offense clearly suffered. 

The whole "Aaron makes his WRs great" is wrong. Their chemistry makes them great. He can scramble the pocket and Jordy and Davante know just where he's going to put the ball, or Cobb knows exactly where to cut to. Aaron is not a Tom Brady, sit in the pocket and throw you open kind of guy, he expects a ton from his WRs, its rookies don't put up numbers here. WRs are important to Aaron's success because he's smart and realizes he can incorporate them into his game and make the offense even better.

And we've won games with Geronimo Allison and Jarrett Boykin as our starting WRs, so I'm not sure if that's what you're going for.  Was there a drop off in production from Josh Sitton to Lucas Patrick?  Absolutely.  How about from Jermichael Finley to Richard Rodgers?  Absolutely.  Just like you'd expect a drop off going from Jordy Nelson to Jarrett Boykin.

And no, i'm not arguing that "Aaron makes his WRs great", but when we've consistently churned out Day 2 WRs into really good WR, why would I use a premium pick (i.e. 1st round pick) on a position that I can get production out of later?  I mean, nobody doubts that adding a Julio Jones or Antonio Brown-level of receiver would help out our offense, but am I willing to take a lesser player at a greater position in the 2nd or 3rd round?  Absolutely not.  We're talking about a perfect storm situation here, and I just don't think that's going to happen.  Add on that Ted's draft history has only had THREE offensive players drafted in the first round, and I really would be surprised to see him take an offensive player in the first round.

[Packerraymond]

Surprised isn't the argument here, it's that if he did it would be the wrong move. In today's NFL if you get good play on a rookie contract you won, regardless of position or draft round. If the staff feels they can release Cobb and not resign Adams, use that 20m elsewhere and a WR they like is there in round 1, that's great to me. 

[CWood21]

15 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Surprised isn't the argument here, it's that if he did it would be the wrong move. In today's NFL if you get good play on a rookie contract you won, regardless of position or draft round. If the staff feels they can release Cobb and not resign Adams, use that 20m elsewhere and a WR they like is there in round 1, that's great to me. 

I think you're missing the point HZ was trying to make.  Everytime a team took a WR early in the draft, there was someone who would have a bigger impact on their roster.  Instead of taking Julio Jones, J.J. Watt or Tyron Smith would have a bigger impact on the Falcons' success.  Instead of taking Sammy Watkins, Khalil Mack would have made more of an impact for the Bills.  He's essentially saying what I've been saying is that there has to be a perfect storm for it to make sense to take a WR over a number of other positions.  That situation hasn't happened for the Packers.

[Packerraymond]

I just disagree that Watt or Smith make any change to the Falcons results. Watt hasn't come close to sniffing a SB in Houston, neither has Smith. There's no one single transaction in the NFL outside of getting that franchise QB that can change a team from pretender to contender. They are all just one move in a greater spectrum of things.

You're also greatly using the benefit of hindsight to your advantage. Would I take Smith or Watt over Julio in 2017? Hell yes. Would I have in 2011? Hell no. You also could've ended up with Jake Locker, Aldon Smith, Nick Fairley or Christian Ponder by passing of Julio for a more "important" position.

Julio was considered an absolute blue chip. A Calvin Johnson, AP, Mario Williams caliber draft prospect. 6'3 220 running a 4.4 40 with hips to turn in a 6.65 3 cone? Insane freak. Smith and Watt were both great prospects, but I would've never passed on Julio for either. 

Marcell Dareus is a really good player, has passing on Green/Jones for the more important position done anything to benefit Buffalo??

[CWood21]

10 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

I just disagree that Watt or Smith make any change to the Falcons results. Watt hasn't come close to sniffing a SB in Houston, neither has Smith. There's no one single transaction in the NFL outside of getting that franchise QB that can change a team from pretender to contender. They are all just one move in a greater spectrum of things.

I'm not sure either one of us is saying that Watt magically makes the Falcons a contender, but you just said earlier that you thought EDGE had a bigger impact than WR.  If you had them graded even relatively similar, wouldn't the smarter selection be to take the player who plays the higher impact position?  IF that's the case, you take Tyron Smith or J.J. Watt. IIRC, I had Watt in the same "tier" as Julio Jones, although I felt like Jones was a bit better prospect.

13 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

You're also greatly using the benefit of hindsight to your advantage. Would I take Smith or Watt over Julio in 2017? Hell yes. Would I have in 2011? Hell no. You also could've ended up with Jake Locker, Aldon Smith, Nick Fairley or Christian Ponder by passing of Julio for a more "important" position.

And honestly, I'd make the argument that in the case of Locker and Ponder, this is an example of two teams who didn't stay true to their draft board.  I had a late 1st round grade on Jake Locker (based mainly on upside) and I believe a 3rd round grade on Christian Ponder.  Both of them were taken in the top 12 selections, something that I definitely wouldn't have done.  As for Aldon Smith, I truly believe if he would have kept his nose clean we wouldn't be having this discussion.  He had 33.5 sacks over his first two seasons, and you don't do that by accident.  As for Fairley, I haven't really followed his career since he left Detroit, but if you're getting a good interior pass rusher that's significantly more valuable than a WR IMO.

15 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Julio was considered an absolute blue chip. A Calvin Johnson, AP, Mario Williams caliber draft prospect. 6'3 220 running a 4.4 40 with hips to turn in a 6.65 3 cone? Insane freak. Smith and Watt were both great prospects, but I would've never passed on Julio for either. 

Yes and no.  He had the physical tools, but the Alabama offense didn't really feature him much and didn't really help in his projection.  I believe I only had 4 blue chippers (Patrick Peterson, Marcel Dareus, A.J. Green, and Robert Quinn) in that class.  Jones was in that next tier with Nick Fairley, Von Miller, Cameron Jordan, Mark Ingram, and J.J. Watt IIRC.  There were more concerns with Julio Jones than I think you care to believe.

[MacReady]

I'm amazed that you think Watt for Jones doesn't change things.  Saying Watt hasn't sniffed a Super Bowl in Houston is an insult to fans who know how football works.  If Watt had Matt Ryan during his 2012, 2014 or 2015 seasons, he would have won two Super Bowls.  Who did he have instead?  Literally the guy the Falcons were okay with getting rid of BECAUSE they got Ryan. 

And why am I the only one who recognizes the fact that Julio Jones has a SERIOUS touchdown deficiency?  41 touchdowns in 84 games as a receiver is not sixth overall worthy, and I don't care how you try to rationalize his lack of TD production. 

Quote

Marcell Dareus is a really good player, has passing on Green/Jones for the more important position done anything to benefit Buffalo??

Do you even stop to think how bad the points you try to make are?  The Bills literally traded away a 4th overall WR and they're better because of it. 

 

[MacReady]

Locker and Ponder were drafted by the Vikings and Titans, two teams that just so happen to have taken more receivers in the first round than any other teams in the past 10 years, once again proving that taking a receiver in the first round (especially high) is a sign of a badly managed team. 

[Packerraymond]

25 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

I'm amazed that you think Watt for Jones doesn't change things.  Saying Watt hasn't sniffed a Super Bowl in Houston is an insult to fans who know how football works.  If Watt had Matt Ryan during his 2012, 2014 or 2015 seasons, he would have won two Super Bowls.  Who did he have instead?  Literally the guy the Falcons were okay with getting rid of BECAUSE they got Ryan. 

And why am I the only one who recognizes the fact that Julio Jones has a SERIOUS touchdown deficiency?  41 touchdowns in 84 games as a receiver is not sixth overall worthy, and I don't care how you try to rationalize his lack of TD production. 

Do you even stop to think how bad the points you try to make are?  The Bills literally traded away a 4th overall WR and they're better because of it. 

 

Im not going to guarantee a total hypothetical like you always do, but no my guess would be Watt would have 0 Super Bowls in ATL. ATL had a bad team up until last year because they stupidly gave up all their picks (there is an argument I can get behind, you dont trade future 1st round picks for any position but QB), had they used them to draft Watt they still would've been a bad team. Ryan would've had an end of career Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez as his only weapons and a lack of picks to upgrade there. Their defense (much like Houston's) couldn't be saved from one single player.

Also thr Sammy Watkins Buffalo thing is beside the point, as it violates the very rule I stated above about drafting anything other than a QB using a future 1st. Also extremely different scenarios where in most people had Mack as the 2nd best player in the draft and Watkins wasn't even the consensus best WR on the board. In 2011 Julio was a top 5 player in that draft with Von, Peterson, Green and Dareus and the next best WR was Jonathan Baldwin. Jones was a great pick there, it was the trade that sucked.

QB rules the NFL, if you have one it's about stacking as many elite guys on either side of the ball as you can. In the case of Watt/Smith/Jones, if I have an elite graded player up against two guys I have graded to be very good players, I'll take the elite every single time, unless they play interior OL, K, P, LS.