2018 Free Agency

[Woz]

I realize he was discussed a bit about a month ago or so but ...

Upside: quality player, could bolster the safety corps (maybe give the Redskins the personnel to run Woz's idea of a 4-2-5 as a base?)
Downside: injury risk, would be diluting 2019 comp picks (at this point, have to figure he'd cancel out Pryor, so that means 3 (Cousins), 5 (Long), 6 (Grant), 7 (Paul))

[HTTRDynasty]

36 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Take Fitzpatrick and then in round 2 take the NT. At this rate it’s likely that Hankins won’t be signed before the draft too and if we don’t get one of the best NTs we can sign Hankins after the draft.

We don't have the leverage to get Hankins to lower his asking price now.  What makes you think we'll have leverage to do so after his agent sees we didn't draft a starting caliber NT in the draft?

[Woz]

Just now, turtle28 said:

I think he’s going to have to accept a deal cheaper than the one he signed last year eventually 

While very possible, that doesn't mean he signs a cheaper deal with the Redskins.

Getting a good player on the cheap: good
Watching another team get a good player on the cheap because the team wasn't willing to fork over a bit more cash than they originally liked: bad

[turtle28]

27 minutes ago, Woz said:

I realize he was discussed a bit about a month ago or so but ...

Upside: quality player, could bolster the safety corps (maybe give the Redskins the personnel to run Woz's idea of a 4-2-5 as a base?)
Downside: injury risk, would be diluting 2019 comp picks (at this point, have to figure he'd cancel out Pryor, so that means 3 (Cousins), 5 (Long), 6 (Grant), 7 (Paul))

We can use Swearinger if we want to use a 4-2-5 base and get pumbled in the run all game long becsuse we don’t have 7 guys in the front 7 used to playing on the line of scrimmage or a few yards off.

[Woz]

Just now, turtle28 said:

We can use Swearinger if we want to use a 4-2-5 base and get pum[me]led in the run all game long bec[au]se we don’t have 7 guys in the front 7 used to playing on the line of scrimmage or a few yards off.

FTFY.

All I'm saying is that since the league is moving more and more to a passing league, and tight ends are becoming a true weapon, some team is going to figure out how to stop them. Why not the Redskins?

                  FS
         S/LB            CB/S
CB                                 CB
              MLB     MLB
         DE     DT   DT    DE

Will it require the right personnel? Absolutely. Does it have risks? Most likely. But I feel like that's a longer term solution to where the league is going than a 3-4.

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

We don't have the leverage to get Hankins to lower his asking price now.  What makes you think we'll have leverage to do so after his agent sees we didn't draft a starting caliber NT in the draft?

Because he won’t have a job and most other NTs will have signed somewhere so he won’t have a choice but to lower his asking price to sign somewhere.

[turtle28]

43 minutes ago, Woz said:

FTFY.

All I'm saying is that since the league is moving more and more to a passing league, and tight ends are becoming a true weapon, some team is going to figure out how to stop them. Why not the Redskins?

                  FS
         S/LB            CB/S
CB                                 CB
              MLB     MLB
         DE     DT   DT    DE

Will it require the right personnel? Absolutely. Does it have risks? Most likely. But I feel like that's a longer term solution to where the league is going than a 3-4.

Hmm... looks like the Redskins nickel there, which we run about 2/3 of the game.

[Woz]

Just now, turtle28 said:

Because he won’t have a job and most other NTs will have signed somewhere so he won’t have a choice but to lower his asking price to sign somewhere.

Again, while true, that doesn't mean he signs with the Redskins.

[HTTRDynasty]

3 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Because he won’t have a job and most other NTs will have signed somewhere so he won’t have a choice but to lower his asking price to sign somewhere.

It depends on which team doesn't take a 3-4 NT/DE or 4-3 DT in the draft that wants one.  If say, the Jets don't go DL early in the draft, Hankins can start a bidding war between us, and we may be desperate enough to bite at that point.  Or every team that needs one takes a NT/DE/DT high, and we're Hankins' only remaining option.  It's a gamble on both sides to wait until after the draft.  That's why I think he'll get signed before.

[Woz]

Just now, turtle28 said:

Hmm... looks like the Redskins nickel there, which we run about 2/3 of the game.

Funny that. I wonder why I have been saying the Redskins should make that their base defense ...

[turtle28]

10 minutes ago, Woz said:

Funny that. I wonder why I have been saying the Redskins should make that their base defense ...

What’s the difference? On run downs they have 3 three hundred pound DL or about 33% of the game and 66% of the game we’re in nickel w/ 4 DL, 2 LBs, 3 cbs & 2 Safeties. 

The only argument you’re making is that they should start the game off and play the whole game in a nickel defense - including run downs and short yardage - which will make our run defense even worse than it’s been from 2012-2017.

We we’re 7th in sacks last year w/o Jon Allen playing 3/4 of the season and we were good in the secondary except when Norman and Nicholson were hurt - 9th overall in pass defense - so that’s not our problem, our problem is run D and if we run a 4-2-5 100% of the time our run D will be worse.

[Woz]

19 hours ago, turtle28 said:

What’s the difference? On run downs they have 3 three hundred pound DL or about 33% of the game and 66% of the game we’re in nickel w/ 4 DL, 2 LBs, 3 cbs & 2 Safeties. 

The only argument you’re making is that they should start the game off and play the whole game in a nickel defense - including run downs and short yardage - which will make our run defense even worse than it’s been from 2012-2017.

We we’re 7th in sacks last year w/o Jon Allen playing 3/4 of the season and we were good in the secondary except when Norman and Nicholson were hurt - 9th overall in pass defense - so that’s not our problem, our problem is run D and if we run a 4-2-5 100% of the time our run D will be worse.

Because I believe designing a NFL defense around run stopping is ignoring where the NFL is and is going in terms of offense.

Let's start with what teams did with the ball last year in terms of offense:

Team	Plays from Scrimmage	Pass Attempts	Sacks	Rush Attempts	Rush %
Jacksonville Jaguars	1,078	527	24	527	48.89%
Buffalo Bills	1,010	476	47	487	48.22%
Dallas Cowboys	1,005	493	32	480	47.76%
Carolina Panthers	1,026	501	35	490	47.76%
Minnesota Vikings	1,055	527	27	501	47.49%
Tennessee Titans	974	496	35	443	45.48%
Los Angeles Rams	1,000	518	28	454	45.40%
Indianapolis Colts	994	487	56	451	45.37%
Chicago Bears	934	473	39	422	45.18%
New Orleans Saints	1,000	536	20	444	44.40%
Philadelphia Eagles	1,073	564	36	473	44.08%
Atlanta Falcons	984	530	24	430	43.70%
Baltimore Ravens	1,054	567	27	460	43.64%
Houston Texans	1,027	525	54	448	43.62%
New York Jets	984	510	47	427	43.39%
Denver Broncos	1,075	566	52	457	42.51%
New England Patriots	1,070	587	35	448	41.87%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1,051	590	24	437	41.58%
Kansas City Chiefs	985	543	37	405	41.12%
Los Angeles Chargers	1,020	583	18	419	41.08%
Washington Redskins	982	540	41	401	40.84%
Cincinnati Bengals	927	510	40	377	40.67%
Seattle Seahawks	1,007	555	43	409	40.62%
Oakland Raiders	952	558	24	370	38.87%
Green Bay Packers	999	562	51	386	38.64%
Arizona Cardinals	1,059	598	52	409	38.62%
San Francisco 49ers	1,058	607	43	408	38.56%
Cleveland Browns	1,008	574	50	384	38.10%
New York Giants	1,036	608	34	394	38.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1,034	605	40	389	37.62%
Detroit Lions	980	570	47	363	37.04%
Miami Dolphins	995	602	33	360	36.18%
OVERALL	32,436			13753	42.40%

 

While we may have thought the Redskins were pass happy last year (I certainly did), the Redskins were only slightly more inclined to pass than the league average. Almost three quarters of the league threw the ball more than 55% of their snaps.

That's nice, Woz, but what about the important piece of the pie: scoring points

Team	Points Scored	Rush TDs	Pass TDs	Offensive Points %	Rush % of Off %
Tennessee Titans	334	18	14	57.49%	56.25%
Chicago Bears	264	13	13	59.09%	50.00%
New Orleans Saints	448	23	23	61.61%	50.00%
San Francisco 49ers	331	15	15	54.38%	50.00%
Jacksonville Jaguars	417	18	21	56.12%	46.15%
Indianapolis Colts	263	11	13	54.75%	45.83%
Dallas Cowboys	354	18	22	67.80%	45.00%
Buffalo Bills	302	12	16	55.63%	42.86%
Cleveland Browns	234	11	15	66.67%	42.31%
Baltimore Ravens	395	14	20	51.65%	41.18%
New York Jets	298	13	19	64.43%	40.63%
Carolina Panthers	363	15	22	61.16%	40.54%
Los Angeles Rams	478	17	28	56.49%	37.78%
Minnesota Vikings	382	15	25	62.83%	37.50%
Atlanta Falcons	353	12	21	56.09%	36.36%
Oakland Raiders	301	13	23	71.76%	36.11%
Green Bay Packers	320	13	25	71.25%	34.21%
New England Patriots	458	16	32	62.88%	33.33%
Kansas City Chiefs	415	12	26	54.94%	31.58%
Denver Broncos	289	8	19	56.06%	29.63%
Pittsburgh Steelers	406	12	29	60.59%	29.27%
Washington Redskins	342	10	27	64.91%	27.03%
Los Angeles Chargers	355	10	28	64.23%	26.32%
Detroit Lions	410	10	29	57.07%	25.64%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	335	8	26	60.90%	23.53%
New York Giants	246	6	20	63.41%	23.08%
Houston Texans	338	8	28	63.91%	22.22%
Arizona Cardinals	295	6	21	54.92%	22.22%
Cincinnati Bengals	290	6	25	64.14%	19.35%
Philadelphia Eagles	457	9	38	61.71%	19.15%
Miami Dolphins	281	4	24	59.79%	14.29%
Seattle Seahawks	366	4	34	62.30%	10.53%
OVERALL	11120	380	741	60.49%	33.90%

 

5/8s (62.5%) of the league had 60% or more of the points they scored on offense last year come via the air.

 

If teams are spending more time passing and scoring more points passing, then why shouldn't defenses focus on stopping the pass first and foremost? If the Redskins are going to spend 65-70% in a nickel defense anyway, get personnel that maximizes that formation and make that their base defense.

[turtle28]

On 4/9/2018 at 6:22 PM, Woz said:

Again, while true, that doesn't mean he signs with the Redskins.

Yes, but he’s running out of options almost daily. Meaning, if he wants a job he’s eventually likely going to have to take less $. 

[turtle28]

5 hours ago, Woz said:

Because I believe designing a NFL defense around run stopping is ignoring where the NFL is and is going in terms of offense.

Let's start with what teams did with the ball last year in terms of offense:

Team	Plays from Scrimmage	Pass Attempts	Sacks	Rush Attempts	Rush %
Jacksonville Jaguars	1,078	527	24	527	48.89%
Buffalo Bills	1,010	476	47	487	48.22%
Dallas Cowboys	1,005	493	32	480	47.76%
Carolina Panthers	1,026	501	35	490	47.76%
Minnesota Vikings	1,055	527	27	501	47.49%
Tennessee Titans	974	496	35	443	45.48%
Los Angeles Rams	1,000	518	28	454	45.40%
Indianapolis Colts	994	487	56	451	45.37%
Chicago Bears	934	473	39	422	45.18%
New Orleans Saints	1,000	536	20	444	44.40%
Philadelphia Eagles	1,073	564	36	473	44.08%
Atlanta Falcons	984	530	24	430	43.70%
Baltimore Ravens	1,054	567	27	460	43.64%
Houston Texans	1,027	525	54	448	43.62%
New York Jets	984	510	47	427	43.39%
Denver Broncos	1,075	566	52	457	42.51%
New England Patriots	1,070	587	35	448	41.87%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1,051	590	24	437	41.58%
Kansas City Chiefs	985	543	37	405	41.12%
Los Angeles Chargers	1,020	583	18	419	41.08%
Washington Redskins	982	540	41	401	40.84%
Cincinnati Bengals	927	510	40	377	40.67%
Seattle Seahawks	1,007	555	43	409	40.62%
Oakland Raiders	952	558	24	370	38.87%
Green Bay Packers	999	562	51	386	38.64%
Arizona Cardinals	1,059	598	52	409	38.62%
San Francisco 49ers	1,058	607	43	408	38.56%
Cleveland Browns	1,008	574	50	384	38.10%
New York Giants	1,036	608	34	394	38.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1,034	605	40	389	37.62%
Detroit Lions	980	570	47	363	37.04%
Miami Dolphins	995	602	33	360	36.18%
OVERALL	32,436			13753	42.40%

 

While we may have thought the Redskins were pass happy last year (I certainly did), the Redskins were only slightly more inclined to pass than the league average. Almost three quarters of the league threw the ball more than 55% of their snaps.

That's nice, Woz, but what about the important piece of the pie: scoring points

Team	Points Scored	Rush TDs	Pass TDs	Offensive Points %	Rush % of Off %
Tennessee Titans	334	18	14	57.49%	56.25%
Chicago Bears	264	13	13	59.09%	50.00%
New Orleans Saints	448	23	23	61.61%	50.00%
San Francisco 49ers	331	15	15	54.38%	50.00%
Jacksonville Jaguars	417	18	21	56.12%	46.15%
Indianapolis Colts	263	11	13	54.75%	45.83%
Dallas Cowboys	354	18	22	67.80%	45.00%
Buffalo Bills	302	12	16	55.63%	42.86%
Cleveland Browns	234	11	15	66.67%	42.31%
Baltimore Ravens	395	14	20	51.65%	41.18%
New York Jets	298	13	19	64.43%	40.63%
Carolina Panthers	363	15	22	61.16%	40.54%
Los Angeles Rams	478	17	28	56.49%	37.78%
Minnesota Vikings	382	15	25	62.83%	37.50%
Atlanta Falcons	353	12	21	56.09%	36.36%
Oakland Raiders	301	13	23	71.76%	36.11%
Green Bay Packers	320	13	25	71.25%	34.21%
New England Patriots	458	16	32	62.88%	33.33%
Kansas City Chiefs	415	12	26	54.94%	31.58%
Denver Broncos	289	8	19	56.06%	29.63%
Pittsburgh Steelers	406	12	29	60.59%	29.27%
Washington Redskins	342	10	27	64.91%	27.03%
Los Angeles Chargers	355	10	28	64.23%	26.32%
Detroit Lions	410	10	29	57.07%	25.64%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	335	8	26	60.90%	23.53%
New York Giants	246	6	20	63.41%	23.08%
Houston Texans	338	8	28	63.91%	22.22%
Arizona Cardinals	295	6	21	54.92%	22.22%
Cincinnati Bengals	290	6	25	64.14%	19.35%
Philadelphia Eagles	457	9	38	61.71%	19.15%
Miami Dolphins	281	4	24	59.79%	14.29%
Seattle Seahawks	366	4	34	62.30%	10.53%
OVERALL	11120	380	741	60.49%	33.90%

 

5/8s (62.5%) of the league had 60% or more of the points they scored on offense last year come via the air.

 

If teams are spending more time passing and scoring more points passing, then why shouldn't defenses focus on stopping the pass first and foremost? If the Redskins are going to spend 65-70% in a nickel defense anyway, get personnel that maximizes that formation and make that their base defense.

That’s why we only have three 300 pound DL on the field 30% of the game. They actually do what you want them to do 2/3 or more of the game bc a super majority of the time (more than 60%), they have 4 DL (2 edge rushers & 2 DTs), 2 ILBs, 3 corners and 2 safeties aka 5 Dbs. 

The redskins have the personnel to run the nickel defense, 4-2-5 and run it 66% or more of the time just like you want, so I don’t know what you’re constantly complaining about when they mostly run the D you want them to.

[Woz]

14 hours ago, turtle28 said:

That’s why we only have three 300 pound DL on the field 30% of the game. They actually do what you want them to do 2/3 or more of the game bc a super majority of the time (more than 60%), they have 4 DL (2 edge rushers & 2 DTs), 2 ILBs, 3 corners and 2 safeties aka 5 Dbs. 

The redskins have the personnel to run the nickel defense, 4-2-5 and run it 66% or more of the time just like you want, so I don’t know what you’re constantly complaining about when they mostly run the D you want them to.

Why have three 300 pound DL on the field even 30% of the time then? Why not acquire talent and then use that talent so that they match what the team actually does in reality versus some concept they want to run because ... reasons? In other words, instead of getting guys like Stacy McGee and Terrell McClain, you focus on players that would primarily fit a four man front. Yes, this means that Kerrigan plays with his hand in the dirt. That's fine because that's what he does most of the time.

In my mind, the second safety isn't a safety like one would expect in a standard nickel, but a hybrid safety/linebacker whose creation is to counter the rise of athletic pass catching tight ends (Gronkowski, Reed, etc.). If the opposing team doesn't have that guy, you can use him a traditional nickel or as a third linebacker. This player roams a bit in the short-to-intermediate space for defenses, but can run deep if a Reed-like player goes up the seam. What this player isn't is a "in-the-box" safety; that position is dying. He needs to be able to handle center field duties if called upon, but that's not his primary focus.