Would a Bortles-Foles or Bortles-Keenum Super Bowl be good or bad for the NFL's bottom line?

[pwny]

7 minutes ago, Starless said:

JAX-PHI would be more likely to match that description. The Vikings have at least a competent offense with Keenum. Either game would be low-scoring, though.

The Jags were a top 6 scoring team. So I mean both have competent offenses. I would just expect the top two defenses in football to completely smother the opposing offenses in that kind of match up. Philly seems like a team that would be more likely to give up a few scores (even though they had the #4 points defense) and then have to take high risk shots that could lead to big scores for either team. Just my personal opinion though.

[Iamcanadian]

It would be one of the lowest rated SB's of all time, a possible financial disaster for the NFL, as far as future TV revenue goes.

Yeah, Bortles vs either Foles or Keenum, that going to attract a huge national and worldwide audience, not!!! I would not even bother to watch such a contest, I'd just check on the score every so often, but that is about it!!! Without NE, the NFL is likely looking at about a 30 to 50% drop off in its TV audience, you still need star power to garner a worldwide audience and even a national audience and Minny, the Eagles and Jacksonville offer nothing of the sort!!!

[pwny]

1 minute ago, Iamcanadian said:

you still need star power to garner a worldwide audience and even a national audience and Minny, the Eagles and Jacksonville offer nothing of the sort!!!

[Broncofan]

After the Miracle in Minneapolis, the angle of MIN trying to win their first SB at home probably helps their case more.  

PHI is a huge market, and has a wide national fanbase, so they're OK.

JAX has the label of the sad sack underdog - at the very least, their UK viewership would be through the roof lol.

I actually think globally they'll be fine after last night if MIN is in there because they'll be showing that play over and over to the world to get the MIN hype going, and PHI has a huge fanbase.   The bigger issue is what kind of impact JAX has if they can pull the upset. 

[JBURGE]

I find it very fun for top QBs to face a great defense. This was highlighted in both games yesterday, with HOFers Ben vs the Jags and Brees vs the Vikings. Two of my favourite games in recent memory.

I do not, however, see myself enjoying the potential matchup of Bortles vs Vikings and Keenum vs Jags

[Apparition]

8 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 The bigger issue is what kind of impact JAX has if they can pull the upset. 

It's always been weird to me that Jacksonville had a team in the first place. It's not that Jacksonville is some tiny burg (although it is only the 40th biggest metro area population in the country), but that it's within an hour's flight of two much larger metro areas that already had teams (Atlanta and Tampa). That makes sense in the northeast, where the cities are much older and the population density higher, but in SEC country it makes little sense.

I'm sure that a Jags Super Bowl win will grow their fan base considerably, but I have no idea where those fans would be coming from. In that part of the country everyone who pays attention to the NFL is already either a Jags, Bucs or Falcons (or the Saints for those in the FL panhandle) and it's not like the Ravens winning in '00 when they were still a new franchise without full regional saturation or the Pats and Seahawks where the bandwagon fans were people who never cared much about the NFL before.

[pwny]

1 minute ago, Starless said:

It's always been weird to me that Jacksonville had a team in the first place. It's not that Jacksonville is some tiny burg (although it is only the 40th biggest metro area population in the country), but that it's within an hour's flight of two much larger metro areas that already had teams (Atlanta and Tampa). That makes sense in the northeast, where the cities are much older and the population density higher, but in SEC country it makes little sense.

I'm sure that a Jags Super Bowl win will grow their fan base considerably, but I have no idea where those fans would be coming from. In that part of the country everyone who pays attention to the NFL is already either a Jags, Bucs or Falcons (or the Saints for those in the FL panhandle) and it's not like the Ravens winning in '00 when they were still a new franchise without full regional saturation or the Pats and Seahawks where the bandwagon fans were people who never cared much about the NFL before.

Florida is a big transplant state, so a lot of people who didn’t have a home team may gravitate towards them. Gotta think the work Shad is putting into London would pay huge dividends too.

[Apparition]

Just now, iPwn said:

Florida is a big transplant state, so a lot of people who didn’t have a home team may gravitate towards them. Gotta think the work Shad is putting into London would pay huge dividends too.

Don't most of the transplants end up further south?

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, Starless said:

It's always been weird to me that Jacksonville had a team in the first place. It's not that Jacksonville is some tiny burg (although it is only the 40th biggest metro area population in the country), but that it's within an hour's flight of two much larger metro areas that already had teams (Atlanta and Tampa). That makes sense in the northeast, where the cities are much older and the population density higher, but in SEC country it makes little sense.

I'm sure that a Jags Super Bowl win will grow their fan base considerably, but I have no idea where those fans would be coming from. In that part of the country everyone who pays attention to the NFL is already either a Jags, Bucs or Falcons (or the Saints for those in the FL panhandle) and it's not like the Ravens winning in '00 when they were still a new franchise without full regional saturation or the Pats and Seahawks where the bandwagon fans were people who never cared much about the NFL before.

Believe it or not, JAX is decently popular in Europe, especially in the UK.  One of the few good things that comes from those London games.  

I don't know that the NA fanbase changes much, but the NFL probably wouldn't mind JAX at all, given their push to expand the international fanbase.  JAX in the SB would definitely help them in Europe.  I mean, they'll never catch soccer (or futbol lol), but even getting a small piece of the global pie nets the NFL more $$...which let's face it, is what ratings are all about in the end.

[pwny]

Just now, Starless said:

Don't most of the transplants end up further south?

According to Forbes, the Orlando area is the second fastest growing area in the country, and Jacksonville is 5th. Both of those are majority Jacksonville’s territory. 

[Apparition]

Just now, iPwn said:

According to Forbes, the Orlando area is the second fastest growing area in the country, and Jacksonville is 5th. Both of those are majority Jacksonville’s territory. 

That's interesting. All the people I've ever known who moved down there from up north ended up in Tampa. One went from Tampa to Pensacola after that, but he's a Saints fan.

[pwny]

Just now, Starless said:

That's interesting. All the people I've ever known who moved down there from up north ended up in Tampa. One went from Tampa to Pensacola after that, but he's a Saints fan.

The Tampa - St Petersburg area is 8th. The Northport - Sarasota area is 6th, around Daytona Beach is 4th. Then Cape Coral and Fort Myers is first. Then outside the top 10 was Miami/Fort Lauderdale/West Palm Beach at 12 and Lakeland/Winter Haven at 18. So you’re not wrong about the majority going deeper south or near Tampa, it’s just all of Florida is seeing a population boon right now.

Lakeland/Winter Haven is the area between Orlando and Tampa, so we could see that area turn a bit more teal too if a title came to Jacksonville. It also helps that Blake was the guy who put UCF football on the map, so that will help that reach a little deeper through Orlando too, I’d guess.

[tonyto36]

1 hour ago, The Gnat said:

It's the Super Bowl, I don't think it'll make any difference really for at least the single game.

Long term in the NFL, if it's either of those combos, don't think it'll be a negative. The NFL can push parity in the league next season to try and draw some more fans back in. It really depends on how the performance on the field goes. If it's Vikings/Jaguars, that could be a very very low scoring game (actually any game without the Patriots will probably be very low scoring). It will come down to, can people appreciate elite defenses playing?

While I agree with your first point about it being the SB in name and the last point about the low scoring bit.

I think the name at QB absolutely matters.  Imagine the difference in hype or storylines of a Brees/Brady (old man death match).  Or even Ben/Brees (Who is going to retire going out on top?!).  Or Brady/Ryan (THE REMATCH).   Brady vs Rodgers (Who is the real GOAT?).  

Those kind of narratives are easier to sell and sell more than Bortles vs Foles (WHO WILL CRUSH THEIR FRANCHISE'S DREAM AND SUCK WORSE?)

[The Gnat]

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if the likes of NFL Network/ESPN see a dip in numbers compared to previous years without a QB story to use, unless there is some other huge story line, such as the Vikings playing at home or something similar to that. But the actual game itself, don't think it is going to be affected by whomever plays in it, or if so, it'll be a non-issue (though probably reported upon).

[tonyto36]

48 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

After the Miracle in Minneapolis, the angle of MIN trying to win their first SB at home probably helps their case more.  

PHI is a huge market, and has a wide national fanbase, so they're OK.

JAX has the label of the sad sack underdog - at the very least, their UK viewership would be through the roof lol.

I actually think globally they'll be fine after last night if MIN is in there because they'll be showing that play over and over to the world to get the MIN hype going, and PHI has a huge fanbase.   The bigger issue is what kind of impact JAX has if they can pull the upset. 

I think the best story/game would be Patriots vs Vikings.

1.  IMO the two best teams remaining.

2.  Home field for superbowl team

3.  Cinderella Viking story vs the Brady/Belichick soul crushing machine

4.  New opponent for Brady to break the hearts of with a game sealing fourth quarter drive.