Free Agent Possibilities

[Steeler Hitman]

9 hours ago, 3rivers said:

would you trust the FO to draft a good one and then let them play and contribute in 2018? This is the obstacle that I need to see through, but if Sutton can replace Burns and then they draft a player that is good, then alright. I still would like them to sign a proven vet and then let Burns, Sutton and draft pick(s) sort it out along the way only because I am not sure I can trust the FO and the draft. WR though, I know they can draft good there. 

Excellent point there!

[jebrick]

9 hours ago, 3rivers said:

would you trust the FO to draft a good one and then let them play and contribute in 2018? This is the obstacle that I need to see through, but if Sutton can replace Burns and then they draft a player that is good, then alright. I still would like them to sign a proven vet and then let Burns, Sutton and draft pick(s) sort it out along the way only because I am not sure I can trust the FO and the draft. WR though, I know they can draft good there. 

They signed a proven vet and his name is Haden.  They're up against the cap and have holes at ILB and safety.  This is a crap draft for EDGE talent.  If they did not have a hole at ILB I would hope they spent the money signing a pass rusher but they will not.  They will sign a ILB or safety.  That will be the big spend.  A high CB pick is a luxury with all the talent they have and potential in Allen.

[warfelg]

11 hours ago, JustPlainNasty said:

New Englands RBs = 919 yards receiving 

Pittsburgh 660 

Philly 500+ 

This season: 590 passes/451 rushes. 57/43 pass/run ratio.  36.875/ 28.1875 .  = 65.0625 .  (These are actual run/pass average and total plays per game)

Philly: 564 passes/473 rushes. 54/46 pass run ratio.      35.25/ 29.5625 =  64.8125

New England 587 passes/448 rushes. 56/44 pass run ratio.   36.6875/ 28 = 64.6875

 

Ok....so we're running more plays per game with less runs per game.  Which is exactly what I said.

I am 100% confident in that if we let Bell walk that your proposed rotation of; Jamaal Charles on the down side of his career, James Conner off knee surgery, and a rookie, would come no where near the production of Bell alone.  Sorry you made a poor statement trying to relate salary to production.

Guess what, the best rushing team in the NFL (Jacksonville), was the team that spent the most on running backs (Jacksonville).  The team that was 2nd, spend the 8th most.  You point out NE and their spending on RBs an where they finished....they spent the 3rd most on running backs.  In fact, outside of us and Philly, positional spending on running back correlates highly to team rushing yards success.

So I come back to the issue isn't how much we're spending.  It's the playcalling, the predictability.  Like how about this one: we ran the most plays in the NFL with an extra lineman by double over the next team.  The same issue we talk about here is so true.....the RB rotation.  You can still have a lead back and not have him run the ball about 40 more times in 15 games than the next closest guy did in 16 games.

 

Taking those teams that you talked about:

Bell 321 carries/85 catches, Conner 32 carries/0 catches, Ridley 26 carries/0 catches. Bell alone: 1,946 scrimmage yards.  

Blount 173 carries/8 catches, Ajayi 70 carries/10 catches, Clement 64 carries/10 catches, Smallwood 47 catches, 13 catches. 2,036 scrimmage yards. 

Lewis 180 carries/32 catches, Gillislee 104 carries/1 catch, Burkhead 64 carries/30 catches, White 43 carries, 56 catches. 2,626 scrimmage yards.

So both those teams took 4 players to replace what Bell alone gave you.

Out of curiosity I went to the leading rusher in the NFL and runner up:

Hunt 272, Smith 60, West 18, Hill 17.  A better distribution.

Gurley 279, Austin 59, Brown 63.  Again....better distribution.

The answer here isn't spend less on more guys.  The answer is better play calling, load management, a little more distribution.  Take 30 carries from Bell, push them to Conner.  That's just 2 carries per game.  Give a few more snaps per game.  The Hunt and Gurley cases prove that you can still have a lead back without doing RBBC, and produce big, without losing sustainability.

[Steeler Hitman]

9 hours ago, Chieferific said:

Why? Just why? A 2nd year player thrust into the starting role as a Rookie and a changed scheme in his 2nd year. Are we really ready to throw in the towel? Especially for another 2nd year player whom I'm telling you (no one believes me) is NOT going to be a some sort of stud. Burns is OK. You say Davis can be saved but Burns cannot? Davis has played MUCH worse than Burns OVERALL imo.

We didn't change the scheme all that much Chieferific.  We played some more man which is supposed to be Burns strength. The similar scheme is also why we signed Sean Spence as he knows the defense, terminology and philosophy.  I am not saying throw in the towel on Burns or Davis. Both have a lot of upside. However, we are close to winning a Super Bowl with a dynamic and explosive offense. One or two defensive stops and we get a shot to play the Patriots for a chance to play the World Champion Eagles in the Super Bowl.

I see Cam as more of a slot type of guy. I love what Hilton has done and he seems to be the man there. However, we are one play away from anyone being hurt. I believe you need at least three very good CB's in today's game. As I have repeatedly stated, I like the backfield model of both the Bronco's and Bengals who have very talented CB's who can match up with WR's and TE's.

My thing is that both Davis and Burns did not go to the next level. I am a fan of both but they regressed in 2017 ompared to the growth and anticipated development going into the next season. Artie was horrible in run support, tackling and while he made some decent plays in pass defense, he also gave up too many deep balls one on one or was out of position, etc.  Davis was better in the box tackling than in open field, he had a few INT's but missed a few as well. His coverage skills, which should be a strength of a former CB were very average.  He did not take more of a leadership role in the back end as well.  I say all of this to say that I am not ready to give up on either after year two, but I wouldn't mind bringing in some talent...just in case. Whether that lights a fire under them or is an insurance policy. The secondary player that I am just done with is Mike Mitchell. 

I supported him and thought that he could possibly go to the next level this year, but he was very inconsistent in coverage and tackling. Simply put, we need an upgrade at FS/SS.  We need someone who can pair with Davis to solidify our back end and provide depth at the position in the event of injury. Lastly, I am also disappointed that JJ Wilcox did not make an impact or even get in to be used as an in the box safety in run support. His salary is too big, but I have many questions about our secondary coaching.  This will be a year that a lot of eyes are on Coach Lake.  If the secondary doesn't improve, especially if changes are made, the problem may be the leadership and coaching these guys are getting. 

[warfelg]

4 minutes ago, Steeler Hitman said:

We didn't change the scheme all that much Chieferific.  We played some more man which is supposed to be Burns strength.

I'm just going to inject here that most of Burns issues came on zone plays, mostly cover 3, where there was a botches high/low assignment.  SteelerDepot did a great article about it how team flooded the seams, used a crossing/double move fly, and communication broke down where both Burns and Mitchell would jump the shallow and no one would take the deep.  In that case it should be the FA taking the deep (since the action is in front of him) and the CB is to pass on the deep coverage in favor of the short coverage (making the QB window smaller to throw into).  It is easier for the short man to react to a deep pass with over the top help, than it is for the short man to keep running with the man with no over the top help.

They also highlighted how in man coverage, we often played cover-2 and Burns issues there were a simple one to clean up in that he got called for a few PI's.  That's not as big of a deal because he's running with the man.  

What they did this year, IMO was a bit of a mistake.  They put Mitchell on Burns side of the field to use as a bracket on the top player, and used Davis on Haden's side on the #2 because Haden can play on an island like that.  This is a page straight out of the Patriots playbook.  Last year Butler would take the #2 WR on an island despite being the "better" CB.  Then Logan Ryan would take the #1 WR with help from Devin McCourty at FS, putting the lesser corner on the best WR with help.  This ends up causing more problems for the offense since your #1 option is doubled while your #2 option has a better cover corner on him.

The reason this did not work for us is Mitchell.  He often left his responsibility to go elsewhere, and was late reacting to the play developing in front of him.  He needed to play wider at times, letting Davis fill in the zone for him and he did not.  So the Steelers attempted a trail man with bracket coverage, and because the bracket coverage was not in the right place the play got burned easily by the opposing offense.

So again, the issue wasn't the CB play.  In both cases of man and zone, we saw a breakdown in what the CB was expecting out of the play because the FS failed to properly play the playcall; and instead was freelancing on what he thought he should do with the play in front of him.  Most these breakdowns happened in play action plays, where Mitchell bit hard.  I wish I could say it was a few plays here and there, but this is an issue for Mitchell on film going back to when he first got here, to his year in Carolina, to his time in Oakland, all the way back to his time in college at Ohio.  He just leaves his assignment all the time.

[Steeler Hitman]

22 minutes ago, warfelg said:

I'm just going to inject here that most of Burns issues came on zone plays, mostly cover 3, where there was a botches high/low assignment. 

Great point. While I didn't go back and examine every play, if my memory recalls that was quite often the case. Great point here.

SteelerDepot did a great article about it how team flooded the seams, used a crossing/double move fly, and communication broke down where both Burns and Mitchell would jump the shallow and no one would take the deep. 

I am just conversing with you here: (rhetorical question) Why is that?  Mitchell is a veteran. Artie has been playing football a long time.  There have been countless communication breakdowns as evidenced with all of the long pass plays given up on the first drives of many games in the second half of the season. Where is the coaching and where is Mitchell not reading this and communicating to Burns?

In that case it should be the FS taking the deep (since the action is in front of him) and the CB is to pass on the deep coverage in favor of the short coverage (making the QB window smaller to throw into).  It is easier for the short man to react to a deep pass with over the top help, than it is for the short man to keep running with the man with no over the top help.

Absolutely, Defense 101!

They also highlighted how in man coverage, we often played cover-2 and Burns issues there were a simple one to clean up in that he got called for a few PI's.  That's not as big of a deal because he's running with the man.  

Some of the PI's were ticky-tack or Mickey Mouse calls in my humble opinion.  However, take a look at some of Burns positioning on some of these deeper balls. He was often in a bad position (playing outside shoulder when he should have played inside technique, not using the sideline as an aide  to force the receiver out of bounds, etc.). Each situation was different, but to me these are things that your secondary coach should be pointing out in games and working with you on. We see it and we are not privy to even 1/10 of what the players and coaches have communication wise or other. 

What they did this year, IMO was a bit of a mistake.  They put Mitchell on Burns side of the field to use as a bracket on the top player, and used Davis on Haden's side on the #2 because Haden can play on an island like that. 

I understand their logic in theory. You put a veteran with a young player on each side. When it isn't working, then you have to try something else.

This is a page straight out of the Patriots playbook.  Last year Butler would take the #2 WR on an island despite being the "better" CB.  Then Logan Ryan would take the #1 WR with help from Devin McCourty at FS, putting the lesser corner on the best WR with help.  This ends up causing more problems for the offense since your #1 option is doubled while your #2 option has a better cover corner on him.

Great point.  They did this to us in the AFC Championship game last year. This is also why you hope to have more options at WR with three strong WR's and a TE.  We also have a RB, who serves almost as a #2 WR. The loss of Bell hurt and having no one outside of AB to create problems hurt our passing game.

The reason this did not work for us is Mitchell.  He often left his responsibility to go elsewhere, and was late reacting to the play developing in front of him.  He needed to play wider at times, letting Davis fill in the zone for him and he did not.  So the Steelers attempted a trail man with bracket coverage, and because the bracket coverage was not in the right place the play got burned easily by the opposing offense.

This was also true in many instances in the running game where the LB's and DL's did not keep their gap integrity and often free lanced to try to help or flowed to one place allowing an easy lane to cut inside. Mitchell has been in our system for four years. He has played football a long time. I expected more from his football IQ and definitely on the field leadership.  It also doesn't help when you talk smack and then don't back it up. It is time to move on here. Why not give JJ Wilcox a shot? I heard he struggled with grasping the defense as well.

So again, the issue wasn't the CB play. 

I am with you some here, but our CB play could have been better all around in run support and the pass defense. I get your poit that it wasn't all on them, but they still own a segment of that responsibility; both Haden and Burns.

In both cases of man and zone, we saw a breakdown in what the CB was expecting out of the play because the FS failed to properly play the playcall; and instead was freelancing on what he thought he should do with the play in front of him.  Most these breakdowns happened in play action plays, where Mitchell bit hard.  I wish I could say it was a few plays here and there, but this is an issue for Mitchell on film going back to when he first got here, to his year in Carolina, to his time in Oakland, all the way back to his time in college at Ohio.  He just leaves his assignment all the time.

We now know what we have here and it is time to upgrade that position. Bad year for Mitchell, as I think he is a devoted team guy, but his play just hasn't lived up to expectations. Hopefully we can afford Tre Boston.

I agree with an awful lot of what you said here.  This was an excellent post and was educating as well. Great job explaining and breaking down what happened back there.

[Dcash4]

20 hours ago, Steeler Hitman said:

Who said anything about giving him $5 million?

You still haven't justified what is wrong with checking?

This is where my ultimate question is coming from....What do you realistically think a guy like Davis or Butler is going to sign for and what do you realistically think we can afford (again, a team that already has 3 starters at the position and is cash strapped against the cap)? Im not looking for a "well, we would have to ask!" answer. I am looking for a real answer. Im looking for an answer that you can put on paper and look at and judge against current cap situation, current market value for the position, recent position signings near age and skill levels, and get a realistic view of how this would work in a perfect world scenario -- not a fanatical, we can all dream situation. 

Id love Case Keenum to come be our #2 and upgrade Landry Jones for $2M/year....but that's not going to happen. You mentioned Alshon taking a 1 year deal being an idea similar situation.....that deal was worth $9.5M. We cant play that kinda ball on a one year prove it deal at this specific position. 

Good players find good money. And I will concede that there is no issue "asking" (well, technically I do still have issue with burning agent bridges and them ignoring your lowball phone calls, but that's an argument for a different day), but I cannot see any realistic way that there is right fit, with the right money, into our situation which risks losing an asset in a wasted first round pick and his development for an "upgrade" to our corner depth for the reason of "why not, it doesnt hurt to ask". So without feeling like there is a chance greater that 1% of it happening, I do not understand why we would spend our time hoping for the miracle situation and hoping it doesnt burn bridges along the way. 

[3rivers]

7 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said:

You constantly talk about making trades. That's all I was referencing. It was tongue-in-cheek.

I never realized that but will  keep this in mind as time goes on. Well taken, and of course a result of the FO having a few letdowns over the years in the draft.

[3rivers]

7 hours ago, jebrick said:

They signed a proven vet and his name is Haden.  They're up against the cap and have holes at ILB and safety.  This is a crap draft for EDGE talent.  If they did not have a hole at ILB I would hope they spent the money signing a pass rusher but they will not.  They will sign a ILB or safety.  That will be the big spend.  A high CB pick is a luxury with all the talent they have and potential in Allen.

Some have said the opposite, but I lean towards your take since I can't seem to see players that really stand out, no many sure fire RD1 edge players. 

What about signing Bowman for iLB?

[jebrick]

I think this draft is crap for EDGE players.  I have two that I like and both rate 5th round picks.

I like Bowman but will he want to leave the west coast.  Anyone they sign will be about $3M per year

[Armsteeld2]

@warfelg blaming Mitchell is easy to do because he was so bad this past season.  Burns was no better.  There were many obvious replays that were shown during the games where Burns vacated his zone, didn’t carry the receiver deep enough, or failed to realize that if he’s in Cover 3, he has that entire Deep 3rd of the field.  Burns play was putrid this season.

[Steeler Hitman]

Just now, Dcash4 said:

This is where my ultimate question is coming from....What do you realistically think a guy like Davis or Butler is going to sign for

I honestly don't know because I am not on the inside enough to be able to intelligently answer. I can speculate as you can, but we know that players in many instances think they are worth or will get X, but find out the market and their value says Y. You and I can look at what the market says, but I don't and no one else on the outside knows what someone will offer or what they may accept. Timing, events and a lot of other things have a lot to do with that.

and what do you realistically think we can afford (again, a team that already has 3 starters at the position and is cash strapped against the cap)? Im not looking for a "well, we would have to ask!" answer.

Please don't ask me to answer a question and then tell me what you don't want to hear or don't like. The truth and facts are that I don't have enough information yet and neither do any of us on this forum unless you have some insider connections like Adam Shefter or someone long those lines. I am a football fan and a lover of Steeler football. I am not the GM or someone pitching this to Mr. Rooney.  I don't know what or if the will sign Bell.  I don't know what contracts they will terminate or extend to create cash. I don't know their priority of positions or players that they target. However, what I do know is that teams inquire about players availability all of the time. Last year we inquired about Trumaine Johnson and Dre Kirtpatrick. Most of us thought or knew that the Steelers could not afford them based on information that we had, but yet and still someone inquired, they said no thanks to the offers and moved on.  That is life in the NFL.

I am looking for a real answer. I'm looking for an answer that you can put on paper and look at and judge against current cap situation, current market value for the position, recent position signings near age and skill levels, and get a realistic view of how this would work in a perfect world scenario -- not a fanatical, we can all dream situation. 

I can go online just like you can and pull up CB salaries, check the average and give what you term, "a realistic view of how this would work in a perfect world scenario -- not a fanatical, we can all dream situation." That is really not what all of this is about. My opinion is my opinion. PERIOD! You don't have to like it or agree.  You can ask for clarification which I think I have more than tried to explain. I certainly don't claim to know it all. If you can present a differing opinion or even evidence I am willing to listen. However, pipe dream or not asking a free agent what they are looking for is what free agency is all about. We still do due diligence on top ten draft prospects even though we are drafting 28. Why? You never know what may happen to change where that prospect may go and/or why.

I'd love Case Keenum to come be our #2 and upgrade Landry Jones for $2M/year....but that's not going to happen.

I would as well. Funny you mention Keenum now. However, he also signed a bunch of 1 year deals as well bouncing between with the Texans and Rams before signing another one year deal with the Vikings. I do get your point and others, but we don't know all of the inside information. Coach Tomlin said right after the season that there would be no changes to his staff.  Today DB Coach Lake resigned (or was asked to do so). There is no harm in checking. All the player and agent can say is no thanks.

You mentioned Alshon taking a 1 year deal being an idea similar situation.....that deal was worth $9.5M. We cant play that kinda ball on a one year prove it deal at this specific position. 

We both know many players over the years who have hit free agency expecting big money and didn't get it. Alshon thought he was worth more than that and took a one year deal. Will he get that or more this year?

Good players find good money.

Most of the time and many times they high ball themselves out of a job in a year or two.

And I will concede that there is no issue "asking" (well, technically I do still have issue with burning agent bridges and them ignoring your lowball phone calls, but that's an argument for a different day),

Before you get to burning bridges you ask what a player is looking for. If they want more than you are or can offer there are 31 other teams. It is also not about "low balling."  I get that you don't go to the Rolls Royce dealer with Hyundai money. Last year we offered Bell money to be the highest paid RB in the league ad it wasn't enough.  He actually made less money this year than if he would have signed the deal.

but I cannot see any realistic way that there is right fit, with the right money, into our situation which risks losing an asset in a wasted first round pick and his development for an "upgrade" to our corner depth for the reason of "why not, it doesn't hurt to ask".

Having an extra asset to improve our team or split playing time at a position where we could actually use help does not hurt our team. I'm sorry, I don't see or understand that logic. Coming into 2017 none of us expected Joe Haden on our roster or JJ Wilcox. We made phone calls and one signed with us for less money than they could have gotten elsewhere.  The other we traded for. Sometimes they work out and sometimes they don't. Davis is not on a roster right now, so believe me, his agent is listening to offers and deciding what is best for him. As far as Butler, again we inquired about trading for a player with a $16 million cap hit last year in CB Johnson.

So without feeling like there is a chance greater that 1% of it happening, I do not understand why we would spend our time hoping for the miracle situation and hoping it doesn't burn bridges along the way. 

Unless you can prove that you have inside knowledge of what these players are asking for or looking for, what current contracts will be converted to bonus to free up money or which players will be cut, then you don't know what the percentage is. I think Mike Mitchell will be cut based on his play and salary, but I have no idea what the percentage of this is. I can speculate.  And that is what this forum is all about.

Every fan has their idea of what the team should do, who they should draft, what players they should or should not sign, but we are fans in the end. We have opinions. I respect your opinion to disagree with mine. It is all good. I hope I answered your questions the way you wanted and if I didn't....There was only a 1% chance that I would anyway.

[Steeler Hitman]

Just now, jebrick said:

I think this draft is crap for EDGE players.  I have two that I like and both rate 5th round picks.

I like Bowman but will he want to leave the west coast.  Anyone they sign will be about $3M per year

That is still better than the $5 or $6 million that Timmons was seeking last year I believe.

[Steeler Hitman]

Just now, Armsteeld2 said:

@warfelg blaming Mitchell is easy to do because he was so bad this past season.  Burns was no better.  There were many obvious replays that were shown during the games where Burns vacated his zone, didn’t carry the receiver deep enough, or failed to realize that if he’s in Cover 3, he has that entire Deep 3rd of the field.  Burns play was putrid this season.

I don't think that anyone is suggesting that Burns played well or had a solid season. Most of us point to the coaching staff not developing or helping to improve Artie based on the flashes that he showed last year. He doesn't get a pass, but I think most are saying be patient with the second year guy. I agree, but I also would not mind bringing in some veteran help as you can see from the other posts.

[Armsteeld2]

20 minutes ago, Steeler Hitman said:

I don't think that anyone is suggesting that Burns played well or had a solid season. Most of us point to the coaching staff not developing or helping to improve Artie based on the flashes that he showed last year. He doesn't get a pass, but I think most are saying be patient with the second year guy. I agree, but I also would not mind bringing in some veteran help as you can see from the other posts.

How bad does he want it?  He is young and was given the starting position and as a rookie he was ok.  His second year wasn’t anything except horrible coverage, failures to come up in run support, missed assignments and just a bad year.  He needs some competition to help him grow or to make him a STer.