y2lamanaki Posted May 23, 2018 Author Share Posted May 23, 2018 2 hours ago, PapaShogun said: You can't be a 10 year player, and be a bust? As a pick in the bottom 3rd of the first round? No. As a top 3 pick? Maybe, but even that seems like a stretch. Bjoern Werner is an example of a draft bust picked in the bottom 3rd of the first round. A 10-year starter compared to Werner? If that's how far you'd like to stretch the definition, then you have a very limited range of possibilities which would seem to make any player either a bust or a superstar, and I don't subscribe to such a narrow range of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 (edited) 24 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said: As a pick in the bottom 3rd of the first round? No. As a top 3 pick? Maybe, but even that seems like a stretch. Bjoern Werner is an example of a draft bust picked in the bottom 3rd of the first round. A 10-year starter compared to Werner? If that's how far you'd like to stretch the definition, then you have a very limited range of possibilities which would seem to make any player either a bust or a superstar, and I don't subscribe to such a narrow range of possibilities. In hindsight, I don't think Manny Lawson sniffs the first round for any team. He'd be more suited in the third round. Lawson was a complete disappointment in the bottom third of the draft. Him surviving 10 years as someone that was essentially replaceable doesn't really change that for me. He never did what he was supposed to do: get sacks. Should have taken Elvis Dumervil that year. It's kind of like saying R.W. McQuarters wasn't a bust, because he stuck around 10 plus years as a borderline starter. Don't think that was what the 49ers had in mind when he was drafted in the late first. Edited May 23, 2018 by PapaShogun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, PapaShogun said: In hindsight, I don't think Manny Lawson sniffs the first round for any team. He'd be more suited in the third round. Lawson was a complete disappointment in the bottom third of the draft. Him surviving 10 years as someone that was essentially replaceable doesn't really change that for me. He never did what he was supposed to do: get sacks. Should have taken Elvis Dummerville that year. It's kind of like saying R.W. McQuarters wasn't a bust, because he stuck around 10 plus years as a borderline starter. Don't think that was what the 49ers had in mind when he was drafted in the late first. Underselling Lawson a bit. For a few years there, he was one of the best cover linebackers in the game. That has merit. That's better than being a borderline starter or "easily replaceable". Lawson just didn't produce what people thought he was going to coming out - instead of a pass rusher, he was a coverage guy. That doesn't mean he was a failure, just means he wasn't what people expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Forge said: Underselling Lawson a bit. For a few years there, he was one of the best cover linebackers in the game. That has merit. Right, but you don't draft cover outside linebackers in the first round. Or rather, he wasn't drafted because of that. And it's not like he had some off the charts athletic ability where he had a high ceiling in the future, or some crazy Ray Lewis tackling ability coming out either. Edited May 23, 2018 by PapaShogun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 1 minute ago, PapaShogun said: Right, but you don't draft cover outside linebackers in the first round. Or rather, he wasn't drafted because of that. And it's not like he has some Ray Lewis tackling ability coming out either. But just because he wasn't what people thought he would be doesn't mean that he was a bust. A bust as a pass rusher? Sure. A bust as a player? Not so much. As y2 alluded to, if you're going to get that kind of play for 10 years from someone in the bottom of the first round, that's more actually pretty solid all things considered, especially when you comb through old drafts and see how bad a chunk of first round picks turn out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Forge said: But just because he wasn't what people thought he would be doesn't mean that he was a bust. A bust as a pass rusher? Sure. A bust as a player? Not so much. As y2 alluded to, if you're going to get that kind of play for 10 years from someone in the bottom of the first round, that's more actually pretty solid all things considered, especially when you comb through old drafts and see how bad a chunk of first round picks turn out to be. Not for me. A first round player for me needs to approach Pro Bowl level play. Lawson was never close to that, and I can't be content with mediocrity thinking "well it could have been worse". Fact is it could have been better. Edited May 23, 2018 by PapaShogun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y2lamanaki Posted May 23, 2018 Author Share Posted May 23, 2018 20 minutes ago, PapaShogun said: Should have taken Elvis Dumervil that year. Sure, and the Browns should have drafted Tom Brady #1 overall in 2000, but what a crazy hindsight look at the draft that is. Dumervil went in the bottom of the 4th. He wasn't even remotely in the conversation at #22 overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 16 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said: Sure, and the Browns should have drafted Tom Brady #1 overall in 2000, but what a crazy hindsight look at the draft that is. Dumervil went in the bottom of the 4th. He wasn't even remotely in the conversation at #22 overall. Yes, the Browns should have done that with the benefit of the hindsight in their back pocket. Which is what I'm doing when talking about Manny Lawson, knowing what he became. Nothing wrong with examining what the 49ers should have done, but didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y2lamanaki Posted May 23, 2018 Author Share Posted May 23, 2018 12 minutes ago, PapaShogun said: Yes, the Browns should have done that with the benefit of the hindsight in their back pocket. Which is what I'm doing when talking about Manny Lawson, knowing what he became. Nothing wrong with examining what the 49ers should have done, but didn't. Ahh, well then, as I'm sure you know, as one of the top 5 players in the 2006 NFL draft in terms of NFL careers, he would be gone before either of our picks that year. Tough break, but that's hindsight for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 (edited) 24 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said: Ahh, well then, as I'm sure you know, as one of the top 5 players in the 2006 NFL draft in terms of NFL careers, he would be gone before either of our picks that year. Tough break, but that's hindsight for you. Then the 49ers could have gone with someone else at 22, or orchestrated a trade. If every team in the draft has skin in the hindsight experiment, and not just the 49ers. Edited May 23, 2018 by PapaShogun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrissooner49er Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 Actually, I really liked Dumervil that year...seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said: Actually, I really liked Dumervil that year...seriously. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaait a second, good sir. I call shenanigans...Dumervil didn't play for Oklahoma in college. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JIllg Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, y2lamanaki said: As a pick in the bottom 3rd of the first round? No. As a top 3 pick? Maybe, but even that seems like a stretch. Bjoern Werner is an example of a draft bust picked in the bottom 3rd of the first round. A 10-year starter compared to Werner? If that's how far you'd like to stretch the definition, then you have a very limited range of possibilities which would seem to make any player either a bust or a superstar, and I don't subscribe to such a narrow range of possibilities. 4 minutes ago, Forge said: Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaait a second, good sir. I call shenanigans...Dumervil didn't play for Oklahoma in college. I think that I can confirm? I remember someone being very vocal on Dumervil's behalf and I think it was the Soonerman. Edited May 23, 2018 by JIllg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y2lamanaki Posted May 23, 2018 Author Share Posted May 23, 2018 49 minutes ago, PapaShogun said: Then the 49ers could have gone with someone else at 22, or orchestrated a trade. If every team in the draft has skin in the hindsight experiment, and not just the 49ers. Well, with the benefit of hindsight, no team would be trading since they know immediately they'll get a worse player. And since you feel you need a Pro Bowler in the first, your options at #22 are likely down to Vince Young, Jay Cutler, Joseph Addai, Michael Robinson, Leon Washington, Marcedes Lewis, Stephen Gostkowski, and Sam Koch. What fabulous upgrade are you making? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinerNation21 Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Forge said: Underselling Lawson a bit. For a few years there, he was one of the best cover linebackers in the game. That has merit. That's better than being a borderline starter or "easily replaceable". Lawson just didn't produce what people thought he was going to coming out - instead of a pass rusher, he was a coverage guy. That doesn't mean he was a failure, just means he wasn't what people expected. I agree. Manny may not have been the sack specialist that people thought, but he turned into a pretty good outside linebacker with surprising coverage skills. If he would be in his prime right now, he would be an extremely valuable linebacker. Guys like K.J. Wright and Dion Jones are making quite a name for themselves as a coverage linebacker at WILL. Imagine having a guy who could play WILL and cover well at 6'5 rather than 6'0. Plus, he was super fun to play with in Madden because of his 90 speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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