The Trade Down Mock - could it actually be done?

[Aztec Hammer]

Hear me out...

Before anything else, let’s hit Free Agency.

Sam Bradford, QB - Hold down the fort until Darnold is ready or he gets injured.

Allen Robinson, WR - Pair him opposite Flash.

Trumaine Johnson, CB - Lockdown corner with a contract that allows for an easy out after two or three years.

Tyrann Mathieu, NCB/FS - Not totally sure how it’d work but I feel his coverage and robber skills can compliment Peppers’ move down into the box.

Terrelle Pryor, WR - Bring him home as the #4 and red zone threat.

Dee Ford, DE - A solid third rusher to add to the rotation without breaking the bank or relegating Ogbah to the bench.

 

The Draft: I normally scoff at ridiculous Madden trades in mocks, because they never seem to happen. But maybe this year we might actually be in the unique position of being able to do something like it.

Because of the DEN/NYJ positioning behind us. Two teams that desperately want a QB. It would take some strong fortune and for the early cards to fall just the way we desire, but let’s say the following happened to open the draft:

1. CLE - Sam Darnold, QB, USC - We keep it simple here and take what we believe to be the best signal caller in the draft. He will be the franchise for the next 15 years.

2. NYG - Barkley

3. IND - Chubb

Those three teams were adamant and had no interest in moving, those were their guys.

Now Allen, Rosen and maybe even Mayfield are sat there as golden eggs. 

The first trade down: Denver being spooked by us trading out, flip picks from #5 to #4 and give up a 2nd. A 2019 1st would be epic but I’m not sure we could even swing that by leveraging a Jets offer against them. They’d likely just sit and take whichever QB the Jets don’t take. But a 2nd alone would be something they’re willing to give up to get their guy. Teams lock in on their guy, and the Broncos have been set on the physical specimen from Wyoming.

4. DEN - Josh Allen

The second trade down: Now we can really get to work on the Jets, because if they don’t do enough, we will give Rosen to someone else like Arizona/Miami. In the end we only want to drop down a spot for now. Jets are desperate for Rosen but like Denver before they will probably not give up a 2019 1st to move up one spot, even for a QB. So we leverage offers from other teams and take a 2nd and a 4th from the Jets. Teams lock in on their QB, and the Jets have been set on the pure passer.

5. NYJ - Josh Rosen

As it stands: At this point, we are sitting at 6 with Nelson, Fitzpatrick, James, Edmunds, Ward, Vea and many more sat on the board. We have most of these guys ranked similarly. So we aim for the coup de grace...

The third trade down: Miami want Baker Mayfield like crazy. They’ve bought in. Threatened by the idea of someone else swooping in, they flip #11, #42 and a 2019 1st to us for the #6. Teams lock in on their guy, and the Dolphins have been set on the firebrand since he tweeted asking them to get him to South Beach.

6. MIA - Baker Mayfield

7. TB - Minkah Fitzpatrick

8. CHI - Denzel Ward

9. SF - Tremaine Edmunds

10. OAK - Roquan Smith

It’s time to pick: And here we are, with the addition of #37, #40, #42, #103 and a 2019 1st... and still about to pick at #11.

11. CLE - Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame - We take what we believe is the single highest graded player in the draft. It doesn’t matter that he is an interior lineman, we have recouped exceptional value on the way down to 11 and have guaranteed that Darnold will have a beautiful pocket, bereft of inside pressure. We are dedicated to keeping the young QB clean and opening up a monster run game (soon to come...). We are also intrigued by the possibility that a player as talented and dominant as Nelson (or Bitonio) may be capable of sliding to LT when the HOF hangs it up. 

 

That concludes the first round. After an evening of drafting our top ranked QB and top ranked overall player, as well as adding a littany of picks, we sit tight and prepare for the rest of the draft.

33. Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa - After a rough showing at the Combine, in a bit of a shocker, the long playmaker is the one to fall. We don’t make him wait on Day 2. He will pair with TruJo to form a formidably, long and dangerous corner duo.

35. Derrius Guice, RB, LSU - A violent runner with quicks and the ability to explode through the holes that Nelson and the OL create. Built to carry the load.

37. Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State - In something of a shocker, we take another TE with unreal athleticism high in the draft. Dorsey knows the importance of the position with his experience of Kelce, and we are in love with the versatility this provides us. A corps of Gordon, Robinson, Coleman, Gesicki and Njoku is a nightmare for any defense to match up with. Add Pryor, Duke and another late WR prospect in there and it’s mismatch central.

40. Billy Price, C, Ohio State - Finally we take a good player from this school, after passing on so many recently. He falls a bit because of the injury but we know a good player when we see one. We can afford to grab him here and take our time.

42. Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State - We double dip with this school. He is a limited athlete but again, we know a good player when we see one and he will provide fantastic rotational pass rush alongside Ford and Nassib. Maybe he even stands out.

64. Rashaad Penny, RB, SDSU - Another running back. We love Guice, but can’t pass up on adding Penny to the stable with this value. Two big bruisers, but with enough different quirks to them to add variety to the game plan. By all means, let them form a monster tandem or push each other and have one flourish. Our RB situation is impeccable.

65. Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis - A slightly older prospect, but he is nuanced and refined in controlling his body to gain position and make catches. A style reminiscent of a poor man’s Antonio Brown. No harm at all in adding that. If Coleman, Pryor etc flame out, this becomes a very valuable selection in a couple of years.

97. Josey Jewell, LB, Iowa - Another limited athlete but solid football player. We saw the value Schobert’s selection has given us. We add another player to help the culture here.

103. Armani Watts, S, Texas A&M - A player that has fallen off the radar somewhat but has some developmental intrigue.

119. Martinas Rankin, OT, Miss St - A developmental LT prospect.

129. Kameron Kelly, CB/S, SDSU - Intriguing defensive back with size, length and versatility.

150. Ade Aruna, DE, Tulane - Picking freaky athletes at this point.

161. Troy Apke, S, Penn State - Same as above.

193. Braxton Berrios, WR, Miami - I know some in here like this guy and his potential and speed. 

And Miami’s 2019 1st!

QB: Darnold/Bradford/Kizer

RB: Guice/Penny/Duke

WR: Gordon/Robinson/Coleman/Pryor/Miller

TE: Njoku/Gesicki/Devalve

OL: Thomas/Bitonio/Zeitler/Nelson/Coleman. Price, Nelson, Bitonio to reshuffle whenever JT retires.

DE: Garrett/Ogbah/Hubbard/Ford/Nassib/Aruna

DT: Shelton/Ogunjobi/Brantley/Coley

LB: Collins/Kirksey/Schobert/Jewell

CB: Johnson/Jackson/McCourty/Taylor/BBC/Kelly

S: Mathieu/Peppers/Kindred/Watts/Apke

Something like that.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

You know me, I’d be thrilled with it, but there are some issues.

First, that’s a 16 man rookie class, which keeps us way too young.

Second, at least 8 of those guys HAVE to make the roster, or you just blew a pick imo (first 8 pick).

I L-O-V-E the idea of acquiring a huge amount of draft capital, but I’d be looking to for 2019 and 2020 picks personally.  

[Aztec Hammer]

1 minute ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

You know me, I’d be thrilled with it, but there are some issues.

First, that’s a 16 man rookie class, which keeps us way too young.

Second, at least 8 of those guys HAVE to make the roster, or you just blew a pick imo (first 8 pick).

I L-O-V-E the idea of acquiring a huge amount of draft capital, but I’d be looking to for 2019 and 2020 picks personally.  

Thanks LetsGo. Very good point on the number of the draft class being too high. I had just thought that myself on second glance. Perhaps those later picks could be flipped for futures. They were feeling like flyers without much knowledge by that point anyway. Also, that’s probably too many second rounders isn’t it? So I’d be all for changing the dynamic a bit and having a couple of those 2017 second rounders be flipped to future picks like you suggest.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

1 minute ago, Aztec Hammer said:

Thanks LetsGo. Very good point on the number of the draft class being too high. I had just thought that myself on second glance. Perhaps those later picks could be flipped for futures. They were feeling like flyers without much knowledge by that point anyway. Also, that’s probably too many second rounders isn’t it? So I’d be all for changing the dynamic a bit and having a couple of those 2017 second rounders be flipped to future picks like you suggest.

Still though, I love the idea.  This is exactly what I envisioned Sashi working towards with the trade downs, the almost never ending supply of cheap, young talent.

Also, as far as possible market inefficiencies, I think teams sometime undervalue future picks a bit.

For example, we got a 4th for a punter who was easily replaced.  Sure, we had to wait 2 years for it, but who gets a 4th for a punter?

[DawgX]

I don't think it'd be a good idea to add that many rookies to add to an already incredibly young team.

Also, I don't think the Giants pass on a QB, and I think that QB will likely be Rosen. They'd be stupid to pass on Eli's successor when they have the perfect chance to do so.

IF those trades did somehow happen, then I'd look to package some of them and move back up at points in the draft. Like I said, I don't think it's a good idea to have that many rookies.

As for the FA signings, I like 'em. But with Bradford, we'd have to prepare for Darnold to come in by about week four at the latest most likely.

[Aztec Hammer]

Understand that, DawgX. And to be honest, I probably agree.

I won’t go back and change the mock now, for the purpose of authenticity, I’ll leave it. But I would probably also be inclined to flip or package some of those picks to move up into the late first and get a better player with the fifth-year option as well. Maybe something like the Hubbard and Watts’ picks as 42 and 103 to move into the back end of the first for a McGlinchey for example.

One or two of the second rounders and middle rounders do feel a bit excessive, and the late round guys are flyers I’ve hardly seen play.

By all means, anyone else who reads this, feel inclined to manipulate the mock a little to match the sort of dynamic you’d hope for.

My overall goal was to provide a numerical manifestation of the sheer amount of talent we could potentially get out of the #4 pick alone. Something I know LetsGo has been preaching for a while. And I would have to say as much as I love Barkley, I’d also take the haul.

[Aztec Hammer]

I’m also leaning towards Bradford over McCarron because I’m trying to avoid a Hue catastrophe where he’s too afraid to ditch McCarron’s average play for Darnold, and it just causes more unnecessary drama, all in the name of Hue trying to keep his job.

Also, I think Bradford provides a much more valuable mentor than McCarron.

However I do like the small possibility that McCarron shows out well in his audition and we are able to flip him for a good pick next year. Something we likely would not be able to do with Bradford.

[dawgdish]

29 minutes ago, Aztec Hammer said:

I won’t go back and change the mock now, for the purpose of authenticity, I’ll leave it. But I would probably also be inclined to flip or package some of those picks to move up into the late first and get a better player with the fifth-year option as well. Maybe something like the Hubbard and Watts’ picks as 42 and 103 to move into the back end of the first for a McGlinchey for example.

If we piled up that much ammo, I'd move back up into the first twice, for reasons previously stated. McGlinchey would be a good get, and I'd also look at grabbing a receiver like Courtland Sutton.

While I love Nelson as a prospect and he'd be great value at 11, I think we'd have to be darn sure he or Bitonio could slide to the outside (or maybe even inside to C, because we are very solid at Guard (more so than at any position on our team)

[BleedTheClock]

Quinton Nelson is a monster. Best player in the draft. But taking him in the 1st round for this team is stupid unless we want to trade Zeitler.

[Aztec Hammer]

1 minute ago, BleedTheClock said:

Quinton Nelson is a monster. Best player in the draft. But taking him in the 1st round for this team is stupid unless we want to trade Zeitler.

Taking the best player in the draft in the first round is stupid?

I get that we have Zeitler, but that seems a bit extreme of an opinion. What if the front office and coaches believe Bitonio can play LT? Or even Nelson can? Or that Zeitler can slide to Center?

I just think there are less stupid things we can do than take the best player in the draft at 11.

[BleedTheClock]

1 minute ago, Aztec Hammer said:

Taking the best player in the draft in the first round is stupid?

Yep.

1 minute ago, Aztec Hammer said:

I get that we have Zeitler, but that seems a bit extreme of an opinion. What if the front office and coaches believe Bitonio can play LT? Or even Nelson can? Or that Zeitler can slide to Center?

If the front office thought Bitonio could play LT, he would have been our RT 2 years ago. And he would have been our LT last year when Thomas went down. He's a guard and the coaching staff has made that pretty clear by not already moving him. Zeitler at center? Maybe, but again, this is a project move that has very little likelihood of happening. Why are we drafting players where we have two young entrenched starters already? It's not like a 3rd DE, where you can sprinkle them into the game together. Your OL is your OL. I'd love to take Nelson in any other situation, but we're loaded at the position. Nelson isn't an OT btw. You want him road grading inside, not trying to reach block speed and pass protect. Maybe he COULD do this, but it's minimalizing his best attributes.

1 minute ago, Aztec Hammer said:

I just think there are less stupid things we can do than take the best player in the draft at 11.

Sure there are. But not doing something catastrophically stupid doesn't make us doing something moderately stupid any better. There are glaring holes on this team and we're trying to upgrade an A- to an A+? We need to fix our D's and F's before we worry about upgrading the few good starters we actually have.

[Aztec Hammer]

I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree. I wouldn’t consider it moderately stupid taking the single best player in the draft. A guy you’ve personally graded as a 99.

But for fairness, switch out Nelson at #11 for Derwin James, and go from there.

The players in the mock weren’t necessarily what mattered so much because everyone is going to like their own guy. Many won’t even like Darnold at #1 and would’ve preferred Rosen/Mayfield/Allen.

As long as the overall idea of the value of the trade down in this mock stands out, I don’t mind who the players are!

[TheeRealDeal]

Yeah I have already covered it in other threads but if you are one of the anti RB in the Top 5 but you are willing to take Nelson in the Top 10(especially for this team) then you're a gigantic hypocrite). Positional value is a real thing but a stud RB still ranks over a stud guard all day long especially on a team with 2 guards as talented as Bitonio and Zeitler.

 

[TheeRealDeal]

Trade #1 and #138 to New YorkG for #2 and #66
Trade #4 and #101 to New YorkJ for #6 and 2019 1st
Trade #6 and #159 to Arizona for #15, #79 and 2019 1st
Trade #65 to Buffalo for #96 and 2019 2nd

1-2. Baker Mayfield QB Oklahoma
1-15. Mike McGlinchey LT Notre Dame
2-33. Jaire Alexander CB Lousivlle
2-35. Terrell Edmunds FS Virginia Tech
2-64. Kerryon Johnson RB Auburn
3-66. Equanimeous St. Brown WR Notre Dame
3-79. Ade Aruna DE Tulane
3-96. Rashaad Penny RB San Diego State
4-123. Treyvon Henderson FS Hawaii
6-175. Frank Ragnow OC Arkansas 
7-219. Auden Tate WR/TE Florida State

2019.
1.
1(NYJ).
1(ARI).
2.
2(Buf).
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

 

11 Players is not too much of a rookie class especially for a team lacking overall talent and depth as ours. We trade down to build value for this class and start the process for the 2019 class with 3 first and 2 seconds.

[Bucketheadsdad]

I agree with some of the other posts in the thread.  16 rookies is way too many to bring into camp....again.  I would consider packaging later picks with ones to move up to get players we want, or even flip them for picks in 19 or 20, when we don't have any "extra" ammunition available to us.

Flip a 5 for a 4, 6 for a 5, a 7 for a 6 etc.