Jets trade up to 3

[rampantjet]

29 minutes ago, JetsandI said:

Mayfield is able to read defense because he knows his offense really well (in fact, he played one offense in whole of his college career).  When you see something that will mess up your planned play you change it up.  Now, how well will Mayfield run offense in NFL? If he does not know it immediately then reading defense is worthless.

Allen has advantage because he knows pro concepts really well.  It is shame that he couldn't make all silver throws. I am not sure about he can be better qb in NFL than NCAA with better materialized team.

 

Both require some serious time to master their weakness for NFL.

Mayfield played on 2 teams, how did he play the exact same offense his entire college career?

[SDotNova]

In good news to the Jets fan base,

Bucky Brooks has us drafting Josh Rosen

Walters Football has us drafting Josh Rosen

Mel Kiper has us drafting Josh Rosen

PFF will presumably update their mock after our trade and have us selecting Josh Rosen since he is the 3rd QB off the board.

[JetsandI]

2 minutes ago, rampantjet said:

Mayfield played on 2 teams, how did he play the exact same offense his entire college career?

Same air raid offense. OU added a powerful run plays. That's it.

[Bobby816]

1 hour ago, rampantjet said:

Darnold and Rosen played in the Pac 12, if you think their defenses were vastly better than the Big 12 then you are fooling yourself.  Washington is basically the only legit D in the Pac 12, they were the #5, Washington St at 13, Utah at 32, Oregon at 42, Cal at 93, Stanford 94,  USC at 101, Arizona St at 107, Arizona at 115, Oregon St at 120, UCLA at 123

Other than the top 2 teams on there that is not a ton of tough match ups on there.  At least not enough of a discrepancy to explain the massive statistical difference. 

Care to share the Big 12s?

[SDotNova]

For those that like reading PFF stuff, they put out a nice article about how correlative PFF grades in college are to PFF grades in the NFL. They are using 4 years of history which is not a ton but it represents 16 QB's and 10 QB's who have had 200 ore more passing attempts. That is an ok sample size but you really want to be closer 30. For those 10 QB's, their PFF grade in college explains 45% of their PFF grade in the NFL. That's a really high correlation. I reckon to guess that the other 55% probably has to do with supporting cast and coaching.

One other thing to keep in mind is that they also did a study a while back that shows most NFL teams draft well. Some slightly better than others. But in general, NFL teams get it right. So, this study only includes those QB's that NFL teams thought were NFL caliber QB's hence why they drafted them.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-can-pff-data-predict-success-at-the-next-level

 

[rampantjet]

5 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

Care to share the Big 12s?

They aren't great but most are in the same rough range as the Pac 12.  I am not arguing that the Big 12 has tough D's, i am arguing that none of these QB's played against tough defenses very often.  

Rosen only played against 1 top 40 D all year, it was Washington and he had 93 passing yards. 

Darnold didn't even play Washington this year like Rosen did.  Darnold only played 1 top 40 D as well it was Ohio St who was 15th and who he mustered 7 points against.  

Allen barely played any teams worth a damn and didn't play well against even the marginal teams.

Mayfield played Georgia who was 6th, Ohio St 15th, and played TCU twice who ranked 35th mostly because Baker dropped 38 and 41 on them.  He played the tougher defenses despite what conference he was in, and he played better against them by a long shot.  He was the best on "NFL throws" according to PFF whatever that means,  He should at least be an option.  If you don't think he can make the throws than that is an opinion.  If you are siting defenses he was playing against it just doesn't make sense when comparing him to the other guys.

[SDotNova]

5 minutes ago, rampantjet said:

They aren't great but most are in the same rough range as the Pac 12.  I am not arguing that the Big 12 has tough D's, i am arguing that none of these QB's played against tough defenses very often.  

Rosen only played against 1 top 40 D all year, it was Washington and he had 93 passing yards. 

Darnold did even play Washington this year like Rosen did.  Darnold only played 1 top 40 D as well it was Ohio St who was 15th and who he mustered 7 points against.  

Allen barely played any teams worth a damn and didn't play well against even the marginal teams.

Mayfield played Georgia who was 6th, Ohio St 15th, and played TCU twice who ranked 35th mostly because Baker dropped 38 and 41 on them.  He played the tougher defenses despite what conference he was in, and he played better against them by a long shot.  He was the best on "NFL throws" according to PFF whatever that means,  He should at least be an option.  If you don't think he can make the throws than that is an opinion.  If you are siting defenses he was playing against it just doesn't make sense when comparing him to the other guys.

Per PFF:

An example of an “NFL Throw” is an over-the-shoulder throw made in-rhythm into tight coverage more than three yards past the line to gain whereas an open crossing route thrown five yards or more short of the line to gain would fall into the “non NFL Throw” bucket.

Edit:

On those types of throws here is the ranking on accuracy

1. Baker Mayfield

2. Josh Rosen

3. Mason Rudolph

4. Sam Darnold

5. Lamar Jackson

6. Josh Allen

 

[Bobby816]

1 hour ago, rampantjet said:

They aren't great but most are in the same rough range as the Pac 12.  I am not arguing that the Big 12 has tough D's, i am arguing that none of these QB's played against tough defenses very often.  

Rosen only played against 1 top 40 D all year, it was Washington and he had 93 passing yards. 

Darnold did even play Washington this year like Rosen did.  Darnold only played 1 top 40 D as well it was Ohio St who was 15th and who he mustered 7 points against.  

Allen barely played any teams worth a damn and didn't play well against even the marginal teams.

Mayfield played Georgia who was 6th, Ohio St 15th, and played TCU twice who ranked 35th mostly because Baker dropped 38 and 41 on them.  He played the tougher defenses despite what conference he was in, and he played better against them by a long shot.  He was the best on "NFL throws" according to PFF whatever that means,  He should at least be an option.  If you don't think he can make the throws than that is an opinion.  If you are siting defenses he was playing against it just doesn't make sense when comparing him to the other guys.

Well his air raid offense doesn’t compare to that of UCLA, USC or Wyoming. I’ve said this several times. If we are going by all this a Texas Tech, OkSt. WashSt. QB should go Round 1 every year. Shimonek threw for 325yds and 4tds against OU, so I guess he should be drafted high. And his adjusted competition percentage is pretty good too. This is not me saying Shimonek is great by any means. It’s me pointing out that air raid offenses will always ALWAYS put up stats like this. High yardage, TDs and competition percentage, etc. Doesn’t make a difference if they’re playing Georgia or Kansas. Te iffense will generally get there’s.

[rampantjet]

2 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

Well his air raid offense doesn’t compare to that of UCLA, USC or Wyoming. I’ve said this several times. If we are going by all this a Texas Tech, OkSt. WashSt. QB should go Round 1 every year. Shimonek threw for 325yds and 4tds against OU, so I guess he should be drafted high. And his adjusted competition percentage is pretty good too. This is not me saying Shimonek is great by any means. It’s me pointing out that air raid offenses will always ALWAYS put up stats like this. High yardage, TDs and competition percentage, etc. Doesn’t make a difference if they’re playing Georgia or Kansas. Te iffense will generally get there’s.

Well that is a completely different argument.  Offensive scheme is certainly something to weigh.  I wasn't saying it wasn't, I was saying that talking about the teams he played didn't make much sense.  

[BlaZeN37]

4 hours ago, ekill08x said:

Based on what exactly? What has Allen done for you on film to put him in Rosen's class, or what about Rosen don't you like? Just curious. 

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=bloomjoshallen

Read this article, it explains exactly how I feel about Allen when I watch his tape. 

As far as Rosen goes, I love him as a prospect but he has his own warts. His lack of ability to make plays off script is worrisome. He is definitely the kind of QB that will need good protection to have success early on. I could actually see Allen finding some success early on if he is used the right way. 

[BlaZeN37]

“Much has been made of Allen’s poor completion percentage, but a closer look at his play reveals that completion percentage also reflects the distorted risk/reward equation for a quarterback that is putting an overmatched team on his back. Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck”

 

When I see people use Allen’s completion percentage as evidence of his lack of accuracy I want to slam my head through a wall. Josh Allen is a gun-slinger through and through, which is the main reason his completion% is what it is. Craig Bohl (Wyoming’s HC) told a story at Allen’s pro day that stood out to me. Bohl said that during a scrimmage they ran a PA pass that was suppose to go to the FB in the flat. Instead, Allen threw it 40 yards down the field. When Bohl asked Allen why he made that throw Allen responded by saying “Favre says TDs before anything”.

[KingOfNewYork]

28 minutes ago, BlaZeN37 said:

“Much has been made of Allen’s poor completion percentage, but a closer look at his play reveals that completion percentage also reflects the distorted risk/reward equation for a quarterback that is putting an overmatched team on his back. Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck”

 

When I see people use Allen’s completion percentage as evidence of his lack of accuracy I want to slam my head through a wall. Josh Allen is a gun-slinger through and through, which is the main reason his completion% is what it is. Craig Bohl (Wyoming’s HC) told a story at Allen’s pro day that stood out to me. Bohl said that during a scrimmage they ran a PA pass that was suppose to go to the FB in the flat. Instead, Allen threw it 40 yards down the field. When Bohl asked Allen why he made that throw Allen responded by saying “Favre says TDs before anything”.

OMG I love that...draft this beast 

[rampantjet]

14 minutes ago, KingOfTheDot said:

OMG I love that...draft this beast 

Really?  That doesn't sound good at all.  I don't hate Allen but the best QB's in the NFL take what the defense gives them.  We play Brady twice every year and all he does is pick us apart by mostly hitting easy passes that he is good enough to read.  Be a gunslinger all you want if it is working, like it does for Luck, but 1800 yards over 11 games tells me maybe hit the open man and let him pick up some YAC.  Maybe the fact that he needs to go for the home run every time is part of the reason that he got the least help from YAC of any of these QB's by a mile.

[SDotNova]

If his accuracy wasn't an issue he wouldn't be working on his footwork this offseason. He even says he needs to improve his accuracy.

[JetsandI]

1 hour ago, BlaZeN37 said:

“Much has been made of Allen’s poor completion percentage, but a closer look at his play reveals that completion percentage also reflects the distorted risk/reward equation for a quarterback that is putting an overmatched team on his back. Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck”

 

When I see people use Allen’s completion percentage as evidence of his lack of accuracy I want to slam my head through a wall. Josh Allen is a gun-slinger through and through, which is the main reason his completion% is what it is. Craig Bohl (Wyoming’s HC) told a story at Allen’s pro day that stood out to me. Bohl said that during a scrimmage they ran a PA pass that was suppose to go to the FB in the flat. Instead, Allen threw it 40 yards down the field. When Bohl asked Allen why he made that throw Allen responded by saying “Favre says TDs before anything”.

Scrimmage? SCRIMMAGE?   Brett Ratlif rode out in the preseason and he never become a NFL qb. 

 

Jetskid007 presented stuffs that suggest he has strong qb mentality. No argument there but when he played on the field he acknowledged that he could dot an i and cross an t in football action. That is a serious trouble.