Off-Topic: The Washington Wizards Thread

[Woz]

48 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

They have to do something to get rid of Wall and go full rebuild.  

I don't see how you can effectively do that without dealing your young talent. No one is taking on a broken player at $37.8M to start.

I think the next GM is going to have to hope that Wall can come back from his injuries and at least give them something. He (or she) rides out the contract with the plan to have lots of young talent. Yes, that means that someone like Troy Brown probably walks away from Washington at the same time; that's the price of digging out.

Effectively anyone who is on the roster now is not part of the long term plans.

 

The one good thing for the next GM: he/she has to assume that Leonsis will give them a lot of runway to rebuild the franchise. He's shown himself to be a patient (almost too patient) owner, so there's hope.

Now, if the Wizards win the #1 overall pick on May 14th, the calculus changes (and the job becomes somewhat more interesting as the timeline shifts). I would almost argue that it would be better if Washington won the 3rd or 4th pick instead of getting the first overall. They would still get a top notch player, but they wouldn't have the expectations that Zion Williamson would bring.

[MKnight82]

26 minutes ago, Woz said:

I don't see how you can effectively do that without dealing your young talent. No one is taking on a broken player at $37.8M to start.

I think the next GM is going to have to hope that Wall can come back from his injuries and at least give them something. He (or she) rides out the contract with the plan to have lots of young talent. Yes, that means that someone like Troy Brown probably walks away from Washington at the same time; that's the price of digging out.

Effectively anyone who is on the roster now is not part of the long term plans.

 

The one good thing for the next GM: he/she has to assume that Leonsis will give them a lot of runway to rebuild the franchise. He's shown himself to be a patient (almost too patient) owner, so there's hope.

Now, if the Wizards win the #1 overall pick on May 14th, the calculus changes (and the job becomes somewhat more interesting as the timeline shifts). I would almost argue that it would be better if Washington won the 3rd or 4th pick instead of getting the first overall. They would still get a top notch player, but they wouldn't have the expectations that Zion Williamson would bring.

I’d like you point out in the same post you criticized trading away their young talent to get rid of wall and then argued no one on the roster is in their long term plans.

 

[Woz]

18 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

I’d like you point out in the same post you criticized trading away their young talent to get rid of wall and then argued no one on the roster is in their long term plans.

I realize it feels contradictory, but what you want to do is create an aura of winning, or at least competency.

If they cannot trade Wall's contract (and I don't think they can), then they have to build with the pieces that are not Wall that they have. They are only going to have one new player a year for a couple of years (due to their lack of second round picks and cap situation), so they're going to be young and untested. However, if they can right the ship with that, then they can start to go after free agents once Wall's contract is off the books. That means the guys they have now are not going to be here for the next era.

However, in order to deal Wall's contract, they likely would have to give up someone like Brown (unless they can convince James Nolan to take it for a couple of first round picks). That would make it harder to right the ship because there will be a complete dearth of talent. Free agents would only come to Washington if they overpay (Ian Mahimni) or have no real other options (Dwight Howard). Neither of those do anything other than burn up money and roster spots.

 

The East is top heavy and there's room for a mid-level team to break out into that middle space and then leap up ... provided they're smart and can lure players to come to the franchise. No on wants to come to Washington right now.

[Woz]

Three scenarios (all swirling around May 14th lottery draw):

1. The Wizards win the lottery and thus the rights to draft Zion Williamson.
   • This accelerates their timeline as Williamson is effectively being put on a pedestal as they next great player. This also maybe entices players to come to Washington because they would have a solid nucleus with Beal, Brown Jr., and Williamson (and the latter two on the cheap for a few years).
2. The Wizards make the top 4 of the lottery, but not #1.
   • One option would be go completely write off Wall and take a point guard. This means he would be a millstone around the team's neck and would get them next to nothing in return if they try to deal him.
   • Another option would be to take a shooting guard with the idea of trading Beal or letting him walk without giving him the super max. Kind of stacks where they have right now and isn't the most efficient usage of their limited draft treasure, but if there is someone they believe to be great, this might help them build for the future (especially if they can get future 1st for Beal).
   • There's no real center in the draft, and they shouldn't look to take a SF (that would really be inefficient with Brown), so maybe the second best power forward (Nassir Little?).
3. The Wizards don't win (and maybe fall a spot or two if someone below them gets lucky).
   • This becomes BPA. Realistically, this player is a place holder. Maybe you get lucky and they become a superstar (I'd take a chance on Edwards from Purdue), but more likely, it's someone you hope develops somewhat over the next three years that can be a trade chit for the post-Wall era.

[MKnight82]

1 hour ago, Woz said:

Three scenarios (all swirling around May 14th lottery draw):

1. The Wizards win the lottery and thus the rights to draft Zion Williamson.
   • This accelerates their timeline as Williamson is effectively being put on a pedestal as they next great player. This also maybe entices players to come to Washington because they would have a solid nucleus with Beal, Brown Jr., and Williamson (and the latter two on the cheap for a few years).
2. The Wizards make the top 4 of the lottery, but not #1.
   • One option would be go completely write off Wall and take a point guard. This means he would be a millstone around the team's neck and would get them next to nothing in return if they try to deal him.
   • Another option would be to take a shooting guard with the idea of trading Beal or letting him walk without giving him the super max. Kind of stacks where they have right now and isn't the most efficient usage of their limited draft treasure, but if there is someone they believe to be great, this might help them build for the future (especially if they can get future 1st for Beal).
   • There's no real center in the draft, and they shouldn't look to take a SF (that would really be inefficient with Brown), so maybe the second best power forward (Nassir Little?).
3. The Wizards don't win (and maybe fall a spot or two if someone below them gets lucky).
   • This becomes BPA. Realistically, this player is a place holder. Maybe you get lucky and they become a superstar (I'd take a chance on Edwards from Purdue), but more likely, it's someone you hope develops somewhat over the next three years that can be a trade chit for the post-Wall era.

- You can only jump into the top 3, picks 4-14 are locked. 

- Saying the strategy is to shoot for a 5 seed for 5 years while you wait out Walls contract is pathetic. 

- Ripping the bandaid off now is a far better strategy.  Even if you have to trade Brown (likely a long term role player at best that will become more expensive than he’s worth by the time they’re competitive), and this years first (likely in the teens) to get rid of Wall you do that all day long.  Dropping Wall and Dwight gets you in high lottery contention next year with open books moving forward.  

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, Woz said:

Free agents would only come to Washington if they overpay (Ian Mahimni) or have no real other options (Dwight Howard).

These are already the only reasons free agents come to Washington, which is why any plan that prioritizes cap space over young talent is probably a non-starter. 

The nice thing about being tight against the cap is that it forces you to make tough decisions and let “unnecessary” players walk. Trim the fat, as it were. And in doing so, it forces your hand to take the steps that accompany a rebuild. 

Keep Bryant and maybe Sato (depending on the price there). See if you can work out a way to re-sign Parker at a rate much lower than his $20M option. Let Portis walk if he gets offers in the $10M+ range. Let Ariza and Green walk if they get offers in the $10+ range. Buy a draft pick. Play some of the D League guys, see if you have anything in McRae, Robinson, Randle, etc. Get cheap, and in the process, get young. And okay fine, you can keep Green for “veteran presence” if you really want. 

There’s at least a bit of hope when you’ve got a guy like Beal and a couple young guys with upside to go along with a lottery pick. The big buzzkill for me is this draft, which I find pretty uninteresting in the lottery after Zion. But maybe they find a gem to help build up the roster in hopes that Wall comes back with anything left to offer. 

[e16bball]

55 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

You can only jump into the top 3, picks 4-14 are locked. 

Not anymore, they’ve changed the lottery rules for this season. 

Where the Wizards currently sit (9th-worst record), they can get any pick from 1-4, as well as 9-11. 

56 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Dropping Wall and Dwight gets you in high lottery contention next year with open books moving forward.  

Neither of them will likely play for the team next season anyway, so deleting them from the roster will have little impact on lottery contention — unless they use the cap space freed up to sign new/available players, which would actually hurt their tank chances. 

And again, what are they going to do with cleared books? Convince the zero top players who have any interest in playing in Washington to come join a rebuilding team? They couldn’t get even a sniff from an actual DC native when they had a young, talented, exciting team to offer. What’s going to change that will make this an enticing destination for coveted FAs? Cap space has no value if no one worth the money is willing to take it. 

[turtle28]

10 names to watch in the Wizards' GM search

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/10-names-watch-wizards-gm-search

Tommy Sheppard, Wizards senior vice president of basketball operations

Sheppard is serving in the interim as leader of the Wizards front office with Grunfeld out. He has been with the organization for 14 years working under Grunfeld. 

Sheppard is considered a candidate in the search for a new person to lead their front office, but could have the team's recent history working against him. He has not been a GM before, so could lend a fresh perspective in that regard, but has been part of the same decision-making process as Grunfeld through the John Wall era.

David Griffin, NBATV analyst

Griffin might be the biggest name out there due to the fact he ran the front office in Cleveland when LeBron James and the Cavs won the title in 2016, and because since getting fired he has found success as a TV analyst. He also interviewed for the Sixers job recently before Elton Brand was hired. 

But there are a few reasons why Griffin may not be a good fit in Washington. For one, there may be more enticing opportunities to wait for, ones that don't have the salary cap issues the Wizards do with John Wall's contract and injury. And also, he reportedly didn't fit in Philly because he wanted final say and the Sixers were looking for a collaborative front office effort. If the Wizards have similar priorities to the Sixers in choosing a front office boss, Griffin may not be the guy.

I'd like Ted to hire Griffin but I feel Ted will do what he did with the Caps and promote from within.

I feel that Tommy Sheppard gets the GM/President of basketball operations job and Pops Mensah-Bonsu gets promoted from the GM of Capital City Go-Go to take Tommy Sheppard’s position, senior vice president of basketball operations.

Pops Mensah-Bonsu, GM of Capital City Go-Go 

Wizards could go in-house with Mensah-Bonsu, who has NBA scouting experience beyond his one year running their G-League affiliate. He also played for the Wizards during their 2013 training camp and was a star at nearby George Washington University.

 

 

[turtle28]

Are people really still talking about somehow moving John Wall. It’s been 96 pages of this, GIVE IT UP!! My gosh give it up! It's not going to happen!! Even if it was something that Ted finally agreed to, its impossible given the obvious reasons and the more in-depth reasons that Woz pointed out.

Like usual, I totally agree with @e16bball ’s posts. He's right on point. I never thought about the fact that having Wall & Howard - and likely not playing, or barely playing - on the books next year does help the team get another lottery pick in the 2020 draft. Getting two lottery picks in a row will help the Wizards rebuild for the future and possibly have young and upcoming talent to go around Wall & Beal in 2021. 

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by turtle28

[turtle28]

8 hours ago, e16bball said:

Keep Bryant and maybe Sato (depending on the price there). See if you can work out a way to re-sign Parker at a rate much lower than his $20M option. Let Portis walk if he gets offers in the $10M+ range. Let Ariza and Green walk if they get offers in the $10+ range. Buy a draft pick. Play some of the D League guys, see if you have anything in McRae, Robinson, Randle, etc. Get cheap, and in the process, get young. And okay fine, you can keep Green for “veteran presence” if you really want. 

I definitely think keeping Bryant and Sato is top priority. I'm wondering if Sato might want to do a short term deal - two or three years - because if he continues to proves himself to be a good starting point guard with Wall out, that could net him a bigger contract the season after Wall comes back in 2021. So, I'm thinking Sato will want to do a deal like Bogdanovich did when he signed with the Pacers.

I definitely think they should find a way to rework and extend Parker to lower his $20 million price tag. Definitely agree they Portis definitely shouldn't be making more than $20 million. 

I guess I disagree on Ariza and Green. I wouldn't keep them under any circumstances. It's good for them at their age to go to a contender or to help a team become a contender like the Lakers w/ Lebron. If we retain them it just hurts our chances of getting a higher draft pick in the 2020 draft.

I'd definitely buy a second-round draft pick and have Randle, Robinson and McRae coming off our bench with Parker - if he's not the starting PF.

[turtle28]

Bye Bye, Ernie

https://czabe.com/the-podcast/bye-bye-ernie/

 

[turtle28]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/04/01/john-walls-injury-devastating-it-is-could-help-wizards-bottom-line-next-year/

The NBA mandates that all 30 teams insure at least the five highest salaries on their roster. Every organization uses the same insurance company, determined by the league, which provides compensation in the event of an injury that forces a player to miss a significant amount of time. If one of those players gets hurt, then the team is still on the hook for his salary for the 82-game season. But if he remains on the sideline with the same injury for 41 games, the insurance pays 80 percent of the rest of his salary.

Wall’s latest injury, an Achilles’ rupture, will keep him out until at least early February 2020. While the Wizards were rightfully devastated by the setback, which interrupted the 28-year-old’s prime, the injury could benefit the team’s bottom line.

Wall and the Wizards have not discussed the potential of him sitting out for the entire 2019-20 season, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. The plan remains for Wall to rehabilitate and come back healthy, however long that takes. Whether he plays or not, Wall’s “supermax” contract extension is set to begin next season, making him one of the highest-paid players in the NBA: He’ll have a $37.8 million starting salary.

If he does not play next season, 80 percent of that salary, up to a certain amount, is eligible to be paid by the insurance. That would return a substantial amount of money to the Wizards. While unlikely, even if Wall returns on the early end of the rehabilitation timeline (12 months from the time of his surgery), that’s still at least 50 games of salary that largely will be covered by insurance because the deductible does not reset into the next season.

Still, a February 2020 return for Wall makes little sense, especially when reviewing recent history. Take, for instance, Kristaps Porzingis, who tore his left ACL in February 2018. The original recovery timeline, albeit a loose one, was 12 months. But Porzingis has not returned to the court and will miss the entire 2018-19 season. In February, the New York Knicks traded him to the Dallas Mavericks.

Because Wall will miss most of the 2019-20 season during his recovery, as soon as the games begin, the insurance company — not the Wizards — will be paying 80 percent of his salary. Washington will be responsible for only 20 percent of his income.

[Woz]

@turtle28, while nice from Ted Leonsis's perspective (the insurance company is cutting most of the checks), that doesn't help the Wizards from a luxury tax perspective.

[MKnight82]

14 hours ago, e16bball said:

And again, what are they going to do with cleared books?

We've been over this.  They can use the cap space to take on salary dumps with assets attached.  

[e16bball]

8 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

We've been over this.  They can use the cap space to take on salary dumps with assets attached.  

So the plan is to trade away (essentially) two lottery picks and a 28-year-old 5-time All-Star in order to free up cap space — so that we can absorb other teams’ salary dumps and hope to get whatever assets they’re willing to attach to those bad contracts?

That’s a fine way to use cap space if you already have it, but it seems more than a little counterproductive to give away young talent in order to create cap space in order to take on salary dumps in order to get (likely lesser) young talent attached. You’re not getting lottery picks in salary dump trades, after all.

Just keep the young talent you already have (and are about to draft). And keep open the hope, however bleak at the moment, that one day you’ll be able to get some kind of production out of Wall again.