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1(3). Sam Darnold, QB, Southern California


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I gotta say I wouldn't be upset of the majority of our draft next year is dedicated to this offensive line.  I think it is weaker than some people want to think it is.  Johnson was super bad the #35 C in the league with a 31.3 pff rating which is just awful.  Swanson was 32nd with a rating of 43.1 which is also awful so I don't view him as more than depth.  Spencer Long had a 56 rating on PFF which is better but still not great.  Brian Winters was also awful last year turning in a 36.9, which is just heroically bad.  James Carpenter wasn't much better at 41.1 also terrible.  Beachum was our best OL at 72.7.  He was good against the pass but pretty bad against the run.  Shell was average at 65.3.  He is young and I can be convinced that he stands a chance of improving.  

Looking forward if we take O line in the first round it would probably be a LT which is currently our best lineman.  That still leaves us with one of the worst interior lines in the league.  If it were up to me (and believe it me isn't.  I'd cut Winters next year unless he has a huge bounce back year.  That would save us 6.5 mill.  I would then trade back to accrue more picks and take the 2 best guards with our late 1st and then whatever 2nd rounder we get in the trade.  If a high end LT is on the FA market I would cut Beachum and sign him, but other than that I'd probably try to get another year out of Beachum who is not yet 29.  Shell I'd really hope he improves, if not we'd have to make a move.

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9 minutes ago, rampantjet said:

I gotta say I wouldn't be upset of the majority of our draft next year is dedicated to this offensive line.  I think it is weaker than some people want to think it is.  Johnson was super bad the #35 C in the league with a 31.3 pff rating which is just awful.  Swanson was 32nd with a rating of 43.1 which is also awful so I don't view him as more than depth.  Spencer Long had a 56 rating on PFF which is better but still not great.  Brian Winters was also awful last year turning in a 36.9, which is just heroically bad.  James Carpenter wasn't much better at 41.1 also terrible.  Beachum was our best OL at 72.7.  He was good against the pass but pretty bad against the run.  Shell was average at 65.3.  He is young and I can be convinced that he stands a chance of improving.  

Looking forward if we take O line in the first round it would probably be a LT which is currently our best lineman.  That still leaves us with one of the worst interior lines in the league.  If it were up to me (and believe it me isn't.  I'd cut Winters next year unless he has a huge bounce back year.  That would save us 6.5 mill.  I would then trade back to accrue more picks and take the 2 best guards with our late 1st and then whatever 2nd rounder we get in the trade.  If a high end LT is on the FA market I would cut Beachum and sign him, but other than that I'd probably try to get another year out of Beachum who is not yet 29.  Shell I'd really hope he improves, if not we'd have to make a move.

Thank you

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1 hour ago, Bianconero said:

It's very true and every stat available agrees

We upgraded the worst center of all time with an average one

Cool

What a PFF grade doesn’t show you at all is having to pick up play for the guy next to you. Bc Johnson was the worst C in the NFL last year it made Carpenter and Winters jobntgat much harder. So there grade wasn’t good of course. It also doesn’t show health. Winters was playing injured all season, which we really didn’t know. So if healthy his play should be better. What I will agree with is that Carpenter doesn’t fit the ZBS. But we have some decent OG depth with Swanson and Dozier. Who both fit a ZBS better than Carpenter.

 

Our OLine is far from a strength, but I don’t think it is a weakness either. It’s average with above average potential.

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1 minute ago, Bobby816 said:

What a PFF grade doesn’t show you at all is having to pick up play for the guy next to you. Bc Johnson was the worst C in the NFL last year it made Carpenter and Winters jobntgat much harder. So there grade wasn’t good of course. It also doesn’t show health. Winters was playing injured all season, which we really didn’t know. So if healthy his play should be better. What I will agree with is that Carpenter doesn’t fit the ZBS. But we have some decent OG depth with Swanson and Dozier. Who both fit a ZBS better than Carpenter.

 

Our OLine is far from a strength, but I don’t think it is a weakness either. It’s average with above average potential.

Please see @rampantjet's post

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18 minutes ago, Rockice_8 said:

Quoting PFF as gospel is not a good idea and I like their work too.  

I’m a big pff fan as well but I agree. But Pff grades are part of the puzzle. We will have to see how things come together. I think they’ll be below average but nothing close to an o-line that’ll get anyone killed. We were near 10th in sacks giving up last year with a bad center and an injured guard. I think we will be middle of the pack or slightly below this year.

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1 hour ago, Rockice_8 said:

Quoting PFF as gospel is not a good idea and I like their work too.  

Exactly. PFF isn’t end all be all. And doesn’t factor in any X factors. Like I mentioned how talented the guys next to you are. Which is big in OLine play.

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Just now, Bobby816 said:

Exactly. PFF isn’t end all be all. And doesn’t factor in any X factors. Like I mentioned how talented the guys next to you are. Which is big in OLine play.

Even if its not end-all-be-all, it tells the story

So if you want to argue that our OL is bottom 5 or bottom 10, its all the same

 

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3 minutes ago, Bianconero said:

Even if its not end-all-be-all, it tells the story

So if you want to argue that our OL is bottom 5 or bottom 10, its all the same

 

Pretty sure they graded out solid overall in pass protection actually if you want to go all PFF.  It was their run blocking that was horrendous.  I remember seeing that somewhere.

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2 hours ago, Rockice_8 said:

Quoting PFF as gospel is not a good idea and I like their work too.  

I don't do it for anything but O line play.... do you watch and grade every O linemans snaps?  I just know when they screw up.  PFF isn't the gospel but it is a whole lot better than any of us are capable of doing as far as evaluating O linemen.  I do think that Wesley Johnson brought down the play of the guys surrounding him but I am not going to blame him for bringing them all the way down to bottom of the league levels.  I have a glimmer of hope that maybe Winters can bounce back since he was playing with injury, though lets not act like he had a long history of good play.  He played about 8 good games in a contract year, which is always suspicious, but he was terrible before that for quite some time.  

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I think it's possible the Jets have the LT in Beachum, which is the hardest position to fill. Definitely need to address the interior group, and draft or sign another young OT for depth.

It's not the worst situation. We were all spoiled a little bit with Brick and Mangold for so long I think.

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5 minutes ago, Harris Smith said:

I think it's possible the Jets have the LT in Beachum, which is the hardest position to fill. Definitely need to address the interior group, and draft or sign another young OT for depth.

It's not the worst situation. We were all spoiled a little bit with Brick and Mangold for so long I think.

It would be one thing if our interior line was average.  It is clearly below average.  It has the ability to be average this year if Long makes as big of a difference as I hope and Winters and Carp have bounce back years.

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I think the OLine will be average middle of the pack. Winters was hurt all year so he will be better. Carpenter will be just fine. The adding of Long is better than you guys think. He was hurt last year too. If he comes back 100% he will be above average C. Shell will improve at the RT spot too because he has only been in the league a few years. You will also see some cuts in the June 1 deadline. I can see the jets picking up a cap cut guy. 

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