Mind Character

As people, we all perceive the world through our lens of past experiences and it makes sense for us to draw parallels from past experiences. And Indeed, we all know people that ask questions for various non-sincere motivations either as "gotcha" questions or just to self-present themselves a certain way. Generally speaking, the media and people asking questions at pressers are total hacks and prone to "gotcha" questioning. In a room full of hundreds of professionals and people at the height of their fields, as much as it may seem like it's enjoyable asking those type of questions the vast majority of times it is extremely uncomfortable not just for the audience and the person being asked to answer the question, but also nails on chalk-board uncomfortable for the person asking those questions. From my lens, I didn't perceive the guy's question as a "gotcha" question based on how he asked the question and the way in which he asked it. It wasn't a rhetorical, accusatory, or loaded closed-ended question where there were no suitable ways to answer it; it wasn't assumptive, but instead a guided question that first stated that "there's been a reported problem" as the questioner said, then laid out the numbers behind said "reported problem", then ask Stefanski (summary paraphrasing) "how important it is to him if at all to try to do things differently on his staff and to mentor young coaches to effect positive change." That to me in terms of how uncomfortable questions go was a decently thoughtful way to ask that question especially for trash media hacks. There's no easy way to ask such questions, but they do have meaning. The question layout was about as good as they can get, and I actually thought it set Stefanski up for an easy home run layup answer of "yes it is important; I hope to do this and that." Some people have a problem with such questions being asked in the first place, but that's a whole separate issue. To me, Stefanski's answer and solution showed that he proactively thinks about issues that are concerns for many people that make the NFL what it is today and showed that he's able to deal with uncomfortable questions the type of which have past through minds of the people that he's been tasked to lead (as well as the family and friends that surround those human beings). I want to know if the Head Coach can connect with various people and communicate through uncomfortable conversations and situations. Solid question; Solid answer. A win for the Browns and a win for the external perception of Stefanski ability to address concerns that make people uncomfortable.

I'm sure you do....

Nothing.

After hearing his offensive style without Kubiak... .....hearing the reports from past players about his ability to hold players accountable and command the locker, ..... taking into account all the info learned about him prior to the press conference, .... and then seeing how he is an effective communicator who is willing and able to address concerns and questions of all types (whether certain people think them worthy questions or not).... I'm 200% all in on Kevin Stefanski as a Head Coach. This is an exciting hire and pairing him with an effective and competent GM/Roster building has me feeling non-sensical things like:

Diversity of experience and perspective is very meaningful as is the thoughts and beliefs of past and present players within the organization. Often times those perspectives come from people with different backgrounds, from different socioeconomic classes, and ethnicities than what's customarily employed in NFL coach. That's even more important when the vast majority of players come from different cultural and ethnic minority populations relative to what's normally It was a great question because it speaks to what's on the minds of players and respected people that have played the game. Stefanski not being flustered or dismissing that question out of hand as if it's irrelevant speaks to his maturity, insight, and depth of understand but even more so speaks to his ability to address diverse perspectives, concerns, and thoughts that many of his African American players/alumni (i.e., the majority of the team/organization) have. Now, I'd agree that the lines of questioning about diversity in press conferences are usually based in tokenism, but the question and Stefanksi's answer are one's that the players do/will appreciate, especially if it's indicative of his interaction and communication style. It demonstrates at a minimum that he's given thought to various perspectives of the majority of people that play the game. It's was not irrelevant at all. It was an opportunity to at least speak to a real issue on the minds of past and present player's in the NFL, and Stefanksi at least speaking to how he could effect change was a sign of leadership that already players, media and people watching from a different ethnic/cultural background than his have given him credit for.

I agree. To me, a major contributor toward losing was self-inflicted wounds preventing rhythm and momentum on both sides of the ball. If Stefanski can get the team to play a more disciplined brand of football from the outset, that'll be worth at least 3 wins in and of itself because it provides more opportunities for winning plays to manifest. The big question for me and all of is, what the hell exactly is Baker Mayfield? This year's answer to that question above anything else is likely going to be the driver behind if we're a 7 win team or not.

I agree with a lot of your points. And I don't see Berry and co. as having some core inability relative to the "football guys" stereotype. That doesn't mean though that differences between talent evaluators doesn't matter and we could just throw all the names of talent evaluators in a hat and pull one out and experience the same success as if we diligently decided between hiring some over others. Roster-building has a lot more to it than just drafting players we'd agree. But expertise based perception is a real force in life. I think we'd agree that not all experts in other aspects in life are not created equal. I get your point for sure, but I'd disagree that "you're not an expert at anything if you only manage to be right half the time" as the difference between experts often can be small but have a big differential impact on an outcome. The difference between an expert batter in the major leagues hitting .300 for their career versus an expert batter hitting .215 for their career seems like a negligible difference but can be a substantively different quality of ability. Like batting averages, the differences in hit rates amongst talent evaluators and roster builders may seem neglible but there's ar real quality difference. Ultimately, I think Andrew Berry is a good GM candidate because he knows what he doesn't know and knows that he's subject to mis-evaluation. As such, he'll accrue draft capital to mitigate the impact of mis-evaluation. Now, roster building via free agency, UDFA, waivers, formulating trades, deciding who to cut, the skill of managing players, etc all of that are aspects of GMs that are important as well that we often overlook in the draft-centric mindset. I don't know if Berry is as good as others along those dimensions as we saw some really bad results that way, but under a different rules of engagement (the goal is to win), it will be interesting to see how he can perform over time.

Could be. I'm starting not to think so though as I think there's going to be a run on tackles at the end of round 1. Top 4 tackles go top 15. With no Leatherwood and reports that Austin Jackson might be returning as well, players like Isaiah Wilson, Prince Tega-Wanogho, Jack Driscoll, Josh Jones, and Mekhi Becton are likely going to all come off the board between picks 20 to 40. Runs on OLineman historically come early round 2. We might not have to trade up to the 1st round but we'll likely need to move up some spots in the 2nd. In this case, I decided to move up to the late 1st round to get that extra contract year, but it might not be necessary.

DeCosta speaks much truth. You're right. Drafting is gambling. Gambling of assessments of football and intangible/psychological/emotional skills of human beings. Sashi, DePo, and Berry were geniuses to accumulate more picks to gamble and recognize that mis-evaluation is a guaranteed part of gambling on players that they themselves would not be able to overcome. Having more gambles is correlated with more successful gamble outcomes. But understanding the payoffs and risks of gambles as well as the actually terms/aspects of the gamble is a skill of evaluation and assessment of its own. If a person doesn't realize or is unable to outline the odds, the payoffs, the risks, and how the game is played, then that's not a quality gamble evaluator. Of course there's a lot of luck in the process but you cannot discount mis-evaluation of football skill and mis-evaluation of psychological, emotional, and mental skills. Austin Corbett didn't fail as a Left Tackle because of bad luck; he failed because of mis-evaluation. Johnny Manziel didn't fail because of bad luck, but instead because of a mis-evaluation of his intra and inter- personal skills and maturity. Ereck Flowers didn't fail because of bad luck, but because of a mis-evaluation of his skills and skills development potential. There are instances where the Evaluation of skills and the accepting the gamble is right and reasonable but the outcome of the gamble is a negative outcome. To me the various gambles on Njoku, Peppers, and Kizer all made sense based on the assessment of the skills assessment gamble. But did the Njoku and Peppers gambles make sense compared to the Tre'Davious White and Ryan Ramcyzk gambles? Who knows.. what is known is that the rationale for the second draft of theirs made far more sense than that of their first draft with Corey Coleman and Ogbah. There are front offices that are better at identifying the mental, emotional, and psychological make-up of players that give them the best chance at success. The same can be said about properly identifying football traits and skills evaluation. We have to be careful not to see the forest for the trees when looking at draft pick success rate data. When you look at it from a birds-eye view historically it's accurate to say that "human beings are flawed evaluators; NFL personnel execs are human beings; therefore NFL personnel execs are flawed evaluators." That means they'll mis-evaluate things at a various times. Some mis-evaluations are more egregious than others. Just because mis-evaluation is a guaranteed part of drafting players it doesn't mean that player success at a given pick is due to chance. That's because a statistically significant predictor of player-success rate is mis-evaluation of football or inter/intrapersonal skills.

Mock Off-Season 5.0 Free Agency: 1.) Jimmie Ward, SS-Hybrid 49ers 2.) Joe Thuney, RG New England Patriots -- OR -- Graham Glasgow, RG Detroit Lions 3.) Chase Daniel, QB Chicago Bears (Elite Routine/Worker) 4.) Joe Schobert, LB Cleveland Browns 5.) Joe Haeg, OG Indianapolis Colts 6.) Jarran Reed, DT Seahawks 7.) Ronald Blair, DE 49ers 8.) Jeff Driskel, QB Bengals 9.) Swing/Back-up Tackle ------- Mock Draft: 1.) Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama ***2.)/1.) Trade Up to Bottom of the 1st Round via Future Draft Capital*** ***1.) Netani Muti, LT/OC/OG Fresno State // Mekhi Becton, RT Louisville // Prince Tega-Wanogho, LT Auburn // Shane Lemieux, OG Oregon 3.) Cole Kmet, TE Notre Dame 3.) Antoine Winfield Jr., FS/SS Minnesota ***4.) Trade Early 4th for Mid later 4th Round Pick and 2, 5th Round Picks *** 4.)Troy Dye, Hybrid-LB Oregon // Zach Baun, Hybrid-LB Wisconsin // Malik Harrison, Hybrid-LB Ohio State ***4.) Trade the 2 Recently Acquired 5ths plus future picks to get back into Round 4 *** 4.) Ross Blacklock, DT TCU 6) Best WR Available // Antonio Gibson, WR Memphis 7.) Marcus Bailey, LB Purdue (Knee) 7.) BPA

YESSSS!! Ah man...... what a freakin relief... We'd dodge a HUGE bullet if Stefanski does not reach out to Childress.. Childress is a brilliant offensive tactician and mind, but he's a terrible Energy Drain who drives division and creates tough working environments wherever he is. He's the type that talks about people when they leave the room in ways that make those who he's talking to realize he probably talks about them when leave the same way. He's just a person that power doesn't agree with. He also lacks discipline to keep his mouth shut when people/media ask him questions he shouldn't answer, and he is the the type that needs to make sure people outwardly acknowledge his positive efforts whenever he's doing them. He also likes to play political games to increase his self-importance or need to be relied upon. This isn't just from my observation from the outside, but what I've been told from people that have worked in his front offices. When I went to the Senior Bowl a few years back, some of the funniest stories I heard from past and present scouts and front office guys were about Brad Childress. To be clear, no one and I mean no one has anything bad to say about Childress as a purely offensive coach. A lot of people think he's one of the most brilliant offensive minds to have coached in the last few decades. That's how talented of a thinker people say he is. It's just he's one of those people that can't get out of his own way with things that are outside of the field which end up carrying over to the field in time because players and coaches can't stand working in that environment. The good news is Stefanksi having worked with him knows all of this very well. And will likely try to avoid it. It also speaks to how even-keeled Stefanski must be to have been that person's assistant putting out multiple relational fires probably on a daily basis. My fear was that he'd value the offensive mind of Childress and feel like he owed him for what by all accounts was Childress leaving his AAF HC position to be on Stefanski's staff during last year's coaching search. Let's hope Stefanski stays the course or if he does end up bring Childress in it's an advisory role that has limited power and contact with key players, administrators, or personnel execs. In an advisory role where Kevin gives him calls to get his advice on head coaching things, he can be a resource for Stefanski.

That's funny lol ... because Simmons-light is exactly how I've classified Troy Dye, Zack Baun, and Malik Harrison in my mind. They're all going to be great versatile LB force defenders at the next level and they'll all likely be overlooked. They all provide outside pass rush versatility especially as 34- Inside-Outside hybrid Linebackers. They'll all cost us a tremendous amount less of draft capital relative to Simmons. To be clear though, of course Simmons is the superior player by a fair margin on his own merits. Hopefully (imo), our GM sees players like Harrison, Dye, and Baun as more cost-effective options to acquire the versatile LB skillset. Analytically, Simmons is a star player so it will be interesting if DePo and Berry can resist that temptation and instead look at the entire draft pool from a birds-eye view to identify cost effective and value maximization options to fulfill particular needs they identify.

Becton has everything you could ever want in a OT except quick, good feet, awareness, and ability to process the game at a high level. He's a mountain of a man, with insane lengths, and has some of the best highlight reel blocks of anyone in the draft. He absolutely destroys defenders at times making them look like high schoolers. It's laughable how powerful the guy is. But he's slow-footed and cannot handle the speed rush or quick jab step outside transitioned to inside rushes. He gets obliterated by them a lot. Now, there's a difference between being slow footed + uncoordinated VS. being slow-footed + coordinated. The good news is Becton is the latter and his coordination can give him a chance to improve assuming that he takes a next step learning angles or ways to win with slow-feet. That takes a lot of advanced study and commitment. The issue is he doesn't have that intuitive feel and much like accuracy for QBs, a sense for angles and leverage to mask foot speed deficiencies is more of a thing that a prospect has naturally that is difficult to develop. Becton is the perfect round 2 or late round 1 trade up option. He's a better football player version of mountain man Ereck Flowers coming out of college, but there's a real comparison between the two. In a league where Flowers went #9 overall, there's a chance Becton gets pushed up to mid round or the 20s. However, this draft has more talent overall and better Tackle prospects likely leaving Becton to go between 18th-50th. Interviews and the combine will be huge for him. He's more of a developmental starter than the plug-and-play guy we need to hit on with our first pick. He'll likely go 18 to 32. He'd make for a fantastic trade up from our 2nd round pick option Right Tackle prospect.

There's tons to love about Isaiah Simmons, and you're right that we need a play-maker on defense. I'm tellin you though man the more you get into the versatile Linebacker class you're going to realize that there are multiple viable options to fulfill that role of a versatile linebacker but unlike Simmons those options are more physical against the run albeit much less dynamic athletes overall. Such prospects will be available until round 3 or 4. You'll get more linebacker/force player bang for your buck with players like Troy Dye, Zach Baun, and Malik Harrison who can give you everything that Simmons can or more as forward playmakers with length. They aren't the backward moving play-makers that Simmons, but Simmons best attributes are going forward instead of a backward or as a lateral moving nickel matchup play-maker. He got exposed as big nickel a lot this year. Simmons has really spectacular linear build up speed, but lacks the lateral agility and sudden change of direction quickness because he's stiff hipped. A pro-bowl OLineman/Wide Receiver at 10 overall + versatile LB Troy Dye/Zach Baun/Malik Harrison later in the draft + a SS like Antoine Winfield Jr. Later in the draft -OR- Jimmy Ward in Free Agency is going to be a far better use of roster building resources compared to LB Isaiah Simmons at 10 Overall + OLineman in round 2 + *** like Antoine Winfield Jr. Later in the draft -OR- Jimmy Ward in Free Agency A versatile Linebacker that has the ability to rush off the edge and explosive linear movement skills but lacks the physicality to put their nose in it in run fits is not a player worth a Top 10 selections when their will be bonafide pro-bowl/all-pro Wide Receivers, Offensive Tackles, and Guards. We definitely need a defender and force play-maker on that side of the ball and Simmons is a really good player, but I just don't think it will make strategic roster building sense for us tod so.

With all signs pointing to Berry, he's a brilliant and talented personnel exec that has the skills to move the program forward, but again we can't just white-wash some of the draft and personnel decisions and act as if he, DePo, and Sashi were just these amazing talent evaluators and builders. It's also not about just comparing things to John Dorsey, but instead independently evaluating their decisions on their own merit. It's not just about hindsight bias because many of scouts and even many of us amateur at-home scouts had players who are now highly successful ranked well over the players we selected. In 2016, Corey Coleman and Emmanuel Ogbah as 34DE over Chris Jones, Michael Thomas, Cody Whitehair, Justin Simmons, Derrick Henry, Kevin Byard, Kendall Fuller, Xavien Howard, Joe Thuney, etc. In 2017, Peppers and Njoku over Deshaun Watson, Ryan Ramcyk, Tre'Davious White, TJ Watt, etc. When Berry comes in we need him to elevate in the draft and free agency. Should be interesting to see what lessons he's learned and how he's grown as by all accounts he's a highly intelligent person that seeks to expand his knowledge and understanding. I'd love for one of our hack media players to actually ask decent questions like, "how have you grown and changed as an evaluator and personnel exec since first being hired in Cleveland;and how will approach your draft and roster building philosophy now that you're back; what lessons did you learn from the 2016 and 2017 drafts?"

Why the Hire Makes Sense for Stefanksi: Hiring Phillips is about bringing in a wise, effective, and trusted entity that will help calm the waters while Stefanski gets his program off the ground. Because of Phillps advanced age, we'll need to plan accordingly by hiring redundancies along the staff from the outset in order to maintain some sort of defensive continuity after Phillips hangs it up for good. Phillips' Unique 34-Defense: I'm glad someone mentioned how Wade's 34 is not the 34 front that we've become accustomed to seeing. Instead it varies the wideness of D-LIne splits, D-Line and LB alignments, as well as OLB/DE stands versus is down in a 3-point stance all based on situational game-planning and in-game keys. On run downs it often presents more so like an exotic 46 defense based on forcing and funneling the leverage of the OLine to a choke point in order to prevent reach blocks or cut-offs or scoop blocks from being effective. That means the defense uses an angled, horizontal D-Line attack to control the running game by first having the the ends with two-gap responsiblity read a cue and then based on that cue together force the leverage of the OLine towards a particular direction. Based on where the OLine's leverage is being redirected the LBs and box safety support attack with a numbers advantage. The defense is amazing against the run because OLineman have a hard time walling off or getting to the second level against angling Dlineman with help behind them. Then comes the pass rush element of his defense which is a masterpiece of varying tactics and stunts. The only issue with Phillips' defense is that it forces the players to have a lot on their plate in terms of decision-making and key-reading in order to decide how things should be aligned pre-snap and they have to make decisive correct post-snap decisions regarding how to attack the Offensive lines leverage. Ultimately, you have to have really smart D-Lineman that can read and process the game, a Defensive end that is willing to sacrifice stats in order to force the leverage to a particular direction based on the key-reads and run fits, a Free Safety that can take-away half of the field, CBs that can tackle, as well as a impact LB that can stick their nose in there and clean things up. Wade's able to manufacture pass rush and adapt things to personnel strengths, but it does in my mind mean we need more length and power on the interior Defensive Line and we need a real force at LB. Sione Takitaki is the perfect clean-up berserker LB for a Phillips defense, but we need another big-time playmaker LB that even is an upgrade on Joe Schobert. Jimmy Ward would also be the perfect box support player for Phillips. I don't know where we'd find a Free Safety for his system. It may be worthwhile to bring Randall back until we can find a better sustainable solution.

Joe Burrows the man. Only question marks are arm talent (it's good enough though) and that his success will be highly dependent on the OLine in the pros. He's going to lift the Bengals organization if they can just give him OLine. I hope he doesn't play his first year b/c he'll be running for his life, but it will help him that Jonah Williams will be returning from injury but that's just not going to be enough. He'll struggle his first season but he'll have the last laugh when it's all said and done.

It's a damn shame..

The Live All-22 and Skycam are the greatest things in football. it sucks that we don't have options to watch most NFL games that way live.

A lot to like with Simmons, but we can't take him at 10.

I would've agreed until I was reminded by this year how well built and coached they are. Colbert is going to make move to solidify the QB position so their fate won't be decided by Rudolph or Duck. Cincy I likely going to be last still. Where we shake out relative to Pittsburgh I have no clue.

It's about body of work not 1 game or a few plays. All year his body of work has been great. Tee Higgins is a force. Fulton's had low lows and highs in this game.

Indeed. We need interior players that can reach block and zone angle block. Thankfully, JC and Bitonio shined in that role this year. It also got the most out of Wyatt Teller. We need Tackles that can move down the line and can flip their hips. We have some great options at the top of the draft to fulfill that need. If we hire Andrew Berry, I have this strange feeling that a DePo-Berry plan is going to either see us trade-down, take Isaiah Simmons who is an analytics wet dream, or take an OT due to OTs having the highest pick success rate in the First round. There's going to be a lot of anticipation to see what our draft philosophy will be.

These angles that Grant Delpit has taken all night... he's going to be BBQ chicken in the NFL ...

I started out Stefanski #1 out of the initial candidate list. Then, Jim Schwartz entered late and he immediately became my #1 clear choice with Stefanski #2. At the very end right before the announcement I moved Daboll ahead of Stefanski at #2 because: My fear that without Kubiak Stefanksi's core offensive philosophy may change back to less play-action and far less outside zone like it was when he was the interim OC after DeFilippo's firing the previous season, I couldn't find any clear info about his ability to command a locker room and hold players accountable, I was able to find info that pointed to elite culture/program building traits and the ability to hold players accountable for Brian Daboll. As long as we hired 1 of Schwartz, Stefanski, or Daboll in my mind it would be a good hire, but I had Schwartz as the clear favorite so I was disappointed to hear another option announced. After the hire, finding out that Stefanski is committed to the outside zone, heavy play-action system, as well as hearing Kyle Rudolph's comments about Stefanski being able to command the locker room and hold guys accountable has alleviated a lot of my fears and got me back on the good times excitement train for Stefanski.