2019 Draft Talk (Draft Order in OP)

[Ftn49]

22 minutes ago, Gore Whore 21 said:

Not going BPA, especially at the top of the draft is a huge mistake; if it’s close, ok, but personally I’d be way more upset if we reached for a position of need and passed on a legit blue chip prospect. We could still ‘double down’ with our second pick. Luckily for us Bosa and Allen look like legit edge prospects. I want a legit edge player as much as anyone, but I feel like the attitude of passing on elite players just because they are ‘not needed’ is how bad teams stay bad. 

And to spend all your draft capital on one position while ignoring other ones is a good way to stay bad too. The draft is about balancing need and value. Spending 4 years worth of 1st round draft capital in 5 years on a position that only plays two players at a time is bad for business. 

[Fureys49ers]

3 hours ago, Ftn49 said:

And to spend all your draft capital on one position while ignoring other ones is a good way to stay bad too. The draft is about balancing need and value. Spending 4 years worth of 1st round draft capital in 5 years on a position that only plays two players at a time is bad for business. 

This is true as well. My “however” is when some past draft picks, by a whole different regime and by an absolute dumpster fire of a GM, don’t turn out to be what you thought they’d be you move on. Sure, Buckner is a stud, but Armstead was a highly drafted run defender at this point in his career and Thomas is still learning what his position will even be in our defense. The only player drafted recently who may even play QW’s position, being NT on base downs and DT in sub packages would be Armstead. I for one wouldn’t let a player who has failed to live up to expectations with one greatly overpaid year left on his contract be the reason we pass on a legit blue chip talent. 

I understand the need for edge help, I get it I really do and want multiple players added there through FA and the draft, but to think QW would be a useless pick for us is poor logic in my estimation. You’re talking about two potential dominating IDL who not only shut down the run and keep our LBs clean but also get great push and pressure up the middle on passing downs which arguably affects a QB much more. 

All that said, I’d be fine with Bosa, Allen or Williams with our number 2 pick and would understand the logic behind any of those three. We need difference makers, I think all three of them will be that. 

Im also not understanding the thought process that if we don’t use pick 2 on an edge player we’ve somehow blown our load and might as well forgo even trying to add an edge player altogether. There’s still FA, trades and rounds 2-7. We add two edge players through FA/trade like JPP, Houston, Smith, Smith, Ansah or Barrett and a 3rd rounder like a Joe Jackson, Chase Winovich, Oshane Ximines, Christian Miller or D’Andre Walker through draft along with Williams and our DL is venturing on top 5 territory. 

[757-NINER]

And for the record, they envisioned Thomas being a DE/DT hybrid. He wasn't drafted to be "just" a DT so technically, we haven't spent 3 of the last 4 years drafting all DTs.

Quote

 

Upon adding Thomas, the Niners have now used their top pick in each of the past three drafts on the defensive line, having selected Arik Armstead in 2015 and DeForest Buckner in 2016. Zgonina told Thomas at the combine he would envision him working at left defensive end in coordinator Robert Saleh's 4-3 defensive scheme, with the versatility to move inside to defensive tackle in passing situations.

"I talked about that with the defensive line coach at the combine," Thomas said. "Kind of lining up in the end position and stuff so I can move down to that three-tech and be able to rush with DeForest or Arik in there. So, you know, that's really what we talked about, and I'm excited to figure it out and learn more about the system."

 

And when Buckner and AA we're drafted, we were running a totally different scheme. One was versatile enough to convert to 3-Tech, one seems to be strictly a 5-Tech and is not as scheme versatile. But you can't let previous circumstance dictate your eval right now. If Williams is indeed the BPA on their board, he should be the pick. I understand the trepidation but talent should always trump need when you're picking top 5-10, unless we're talking about the QB position because only one QB can play at a time. 

[Ftn49]

51 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

And for the record, they envisioned Thomas being a DE/DT hybrid. He wasn't drafted to be "just" a DT so technically, we haven't spent 3 of the last 4 years drafting all DTs.

And when Buckner and AA we're drafted, we were running a totally different scheme. One was versatile enough to convert to 3-Tech, one seems to be strictly a 5-Tech and is not as scheme versatile. But you can't let previous circumstance dictate your eval right now. If Williams is indeed the BPA on their board, he should be the pick. I understand the trepidation but talent should always trump need when you're picking top 5-10, unless we're talking about the QB position because only one QB can play at a time. 

Both Armstead and Thomas were drafted as DE/DT hybrids, and yes, we've changed schemes which has changed both those guys positions. In our current scheme though they are both DTs or both have been most effective as DTs as every niner fan knows. We simply don't need players at that position.

The only way I would be accepting of drafting Williams is if

1) We don't see the value in pretty much any of the "money" positions ie QB, OT, CB, DE/pass rusher- obviously we don't need a starter level QB, we drafted an OT last year and honestly I wouldn't have as much problem drafting another OT as I would DT as Staley is in his twilight but going by boards out there OT is a position that there wouldn't be value at at our spot, same thing with CB to a degree, there just isn't anyone out there this year worth a top 5 pick. Which leaves DE/pass rusher. Our greatest need and most boards agree that the value would be there for the position.

2) We can't move off of the pick for anything close to commensurate value- This one has a possibility of happening as moving up at the top end of the draft is very expensive and to put it simply a third round pick wouldn't be worth moving to say the 10th position and missing out on your elite level guy you have targeted.

3) Williams is head and shoulders above all the other prospects- This is the one most people get hung up on, several people including those on here believe he is the best player in the draft. That isn't my opinion for two reasons. First, yes, he has some impressive tape, but to me its kinda like the NE patriot thing whereas NE would have a guy have a bunch of sacks and look good and the player would go somewhere else and struggle. Alabama was too talented for anyone to really focus exclusively on any one guy. Most of the double teams I saw him make plays on were usually a lineman and a running back not two lineman. Not to mention, Bama was so far ahead most games so fast this past season that he really didn't have to stay to disciplined in his assignments he could just pin his ears back and rush the passer. And secondly, he is blockable, the one game of his that I watched in entirety he wasn't very good. The SEC championship against UGA. He was able to get pressure 1 time really during the game when a true freshman was placed alone on an island against him right at the beginning of the game. Williams whooped him good. The rest of the game he was kinda a no show. And that wasn't because he was doubled he just got beat by the lineman that took him on. UGA does have an exceptional O line, yes, but I would expect the best player in the draft to show up and show out on the biggest stage he didn't do that in my estimation.

Looking at the draft I can see a case to be made for the second reason on my list to draft him, not the first and the third though which is why I don't believe he works for us/we wont select him.

[Chrissooner49er]

17 hours ago, oldman9er said:

Had not read this until just now..

 

Once upon a time it might have bugged me, but with a slight trade down, I would be VERY happy to take this guy. I do see potential in him akin to Aldon Smith. 

[757-NINER]

@Ftn49, you brought up the UGA game before and that argument just doesn't hold weight for me. He wasn't his usual dominant self but he was plenty disruptive and torn into the backfield on a number of plays. I mean it's there on tape. If all you have is one game, that's a pretty week argument IMO. If you don't like him as a prospect as much as others that's fine. But in his first full season as a starter, he was head and shoulders the best player on that Bama defense. And didn't have the luxury of playing next to another great talent like previous D-Line prospects such as Payne and Allen. At only 20 years old, he's just a fraction of the player he will become. As I've stated before, his tape is the best I've seen since Donald was in college. I think he and Bosa are the only sure things in this draft, for my money. But I feel William's ceiling is far higher than Bosa.

[oldman9er]

1 minute ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Once upon a time it might have bugged me, but with a slight trade down, I would be VERY happy to take this guy. I do see potential in him akin to Aldon Smith. 

I'm just not that enamored with the rest to have any issue with us selecting him at # 2, if that's how it goes. After Bosa, there's just a bunch of solid first rd talents that could go anywhere from 2 to 32, really. 

[Chrissooner49er]

8 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

I'm just not that enamored with the rest to have any issue with us selecting him at # 2, if that's how it goes. After Bosa, there's just a bunch of solid first rd talents that could go anywhere from 2 to 32, really. 

Exactly this. If there are concerns about whether or not Allen or any of the leaner EDGEs fit in our D, then I think Ferrell will do quite well.

[Ftn49]

46 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

@Ftn49, you brought up the UGA game before and that argument just doesn't hold weight for me. He wasn't his usual dominant self but he was plenty disruptive and torn into the backfield on a number of plays. I mean it's there on tape. If all you have is one game, that's a pretty week argument IMO. If you don't like him as a prospect as much as others that's fine. But in his first full season as a starter, he was head and shoulders the best player on that Bama defense. And didn't have the luxury of playing next to another great talent like previous D-Line prospects such as Payne and Allen. At only 20 years old, he's just a fraction of the player he will become. As I've stated before, his tape is the best I've seen since Donald was in college. I think he and Bosa are the only sure things in this draft, for my money. But I feel William's ceiling is far higher than Bosa.

And that fine, that's how you feel and alot of people agree with you. I don't feel the same way way about him and I could very well be wrong. But that is my opinion on Williams. At best he is a luxury pick at a position where we don't need reinforcements on a bad team that needs help else where.

[Fureys49ers]

55 minutes ago, Ftn49 said:

Williams is head and shoulders above all the other prospects- This is the one most people get hung up on, several people including those on here believe he is the best player in the draft. That isn't my opinion for two reasons. First, yes, he has some impressive tape, but to me its kinda like the NE patriot thing whereas NE would have a guy have a bunch of sacks and look good and the player would go somewhere else and struggle. Alabama was too talented for anyone to really focus exclusively on any one guy. Most of the double teams I saw him make plays on were usually a lineman and a running back not two lineman. Not to mention, Bama was so far ahead most games so fast this past season that he really didn't have to stay to disciplined in his assignments he could just pin his ears back and rush the passer. And secondly, he is blockable, the one game of his that I watched in entirety he wasn't very good. The SEC championship against UGA. He was able to get pressure 1 time really during the game when a true freshman was placed alone on an island against him right at the beginning of the game. Williams whooped him good. The rest of the game he was kinda a no show. And that wasn't because he was doubled he just got beat by the lineman that took him on. UGA does have an exceptional O line, yes, but I would expect the best player in the draft to show up and show out on the biggest stage he didn't do that in my estimation.

This just isn't true at all. I'm not trying to come at you personally @Ftn49 but QW was far from whooped in the SEC championship game. He had multiple TFLs where his quickness and strength allowed him to get passed his blocker and drop the RB for a loss. He had a handful of QB pressures and hits on Fromm forcing him to throw early and even got to him early in the game for a sack, as you stated against the true freshman at RG. But there were so many other plays where William's stoutness against the run facing double teams, where he wasn't even moved off his spot, forced Holyfield or Swift to change course and look for another running lane. Other times he penetrated into the backfield very quickly and had it not been for a designed quick pass or outside play he would have been making a play for sure, no doubt designed by UGA to limit Bama's disruptive players. There was even a play where he became off balance after being doubled and instead of letting himself be put on skates by both OL he dropped to the ground clogging the middle and quickly found his feet again chasing down the ball carrier and helping in bringing him down. I'll admit there were some plays where the guy just looked gassed but if I'm not mistaken QW played more than any other DL for Bama so was on the field almost always. I don't know the exact percentage but QW was double teamed, sometimes even getting attention from a third blocker, on at least 60% of all plays that game as well.  This belief that Bama is so loaded in their front 7 that QW got lost in the shuffle and was allowed to make plays that way in my mind is false as well. QW was Bama's DL as Davis had a horrible season for almost it's entirety after being heralded the next great one preseason, Buggs while a decent player in his own right isn't wowing anyone with his disruptive ability and outside of his 3.5 sack game against Texas A&M disappeared in the big games, Christian Miller I think is an underrated player but we're not talking about a 1st or even 2nd round OLB/EDGE player coming out into the draft, Jennings is even less than Miller after getting his fair bit of hype as well and the off ball LBs Mack and Moses I don't think are your typical Bama LBs, I think they actually greatly benefit from the talent around them as they each have questions to their game.

You add a guy like QW next to Buckner and its really a matter of picking your poison with who you are going to double and you better be getting the ball out quickly or moving your QB cause pressure is going to happen up the middle. Keep a TE in to help or your RB and that's one less passing option for our secondary to worry about. There's so many positives, for me, in having two elite DT that I think would help out an entire defense. Sure, we would still need edge guys capable of beating an OT by themselves to have a complete pass rush but I think those guys can be found in round 2 and later as well as be available through FA or trade. Again I'm not letting the hybrid Thomas or lackluster, limited Armstead with one year left on his deal deter me from adding a blue chip talent like QW if I feel he truly is a difference maker.

[757-NINER]

Excellent post above me...my thing is, I'd be happy with anyone the brass has determined will catapult this defense to the next level. I just feel when you're drafting THIS high, no one should be excluded because of position or previous draft history except the QB position. You would hope we don't expect to be drafting this high in the near future so when you're in a position to draft a true difference-maker, you jump at the chance regardless of the position or roster outlook. We have a defense with really only one difference-maker and he just happens to play DT. If you see another difference maker who also plays DT too, don't over-think it. If you have Allen and Williams with very similar grades, going with biggest need is perfectly acceptable. But if Williams is ranked #1 on your board and Allen is ranked number 7, I don't think it's any debate, go with the guy who's number 1 on your board. 

 

[Ftn49]

6 minutes ago, Fureys49ers said:

You add a guy like QW next to Buckner and its really a matter of picking your poison with who you are going to double and you better be getting the ball out quickly or moving your QB cause pressure is going to happen up the middle. Keep a TE in to help or your RB and that's one less passing option for our secondary to worry about. There's so many positives, for me, in having two elite DT that I think would help out an entire defense. Sure, we would still need edge guys capable of beating an OT by themselves to have a complete pass rush but I think those guys can be found in round 2 and later as well as be available through FA or trade. Again I'm not letting the hybrid Thomas or lackluster, limited Armstead with one year left on his deal deter me from adding a blue chip talent like QW if I feel he truly is a difference maker.

 

We are good Furey. I'm good with 757 too. We are all passionate fans who want our team to do the best we think they can do, we just have differing opinions about how that is accomplished. If we all had the same opinion it would be boring.

I mean you can say the same thing about a LEO though, two disruptive forces on the line being the key.

[John232]

THe biggest reason I don't despise taking quinnen too, is I still think we could trade up into the mid first round with relative ease and still grab someone like Burns, Ferrell or Polite. Because it is entirely possible one of those three drop. Or we could just stand pat and look at someone like Ximenes, Sweat, Winovich and Walker. 

[Chrissooner49er]

17 minutes ago, John232 said:

THe biggest reason I don't despise taking quinnen too, is I still think we could trade up into the mid first round with relative ease and still grab someone like Burns, Ferrell or Polite. Because it is entirely possible one of those three drop. Or we could just stand pat and look at someone like Ximenes, Sweat, Winovich and Walker. 

I don't see Ferrell available outside of the top 8 or so...I think he will go fairly high. A trade up could get Burns or perhaps Polite, though, IMO.

[John232]

53 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

I don't see Ferrell available outside of the top 8 or so...I think he will go fairly high. A trade up could get Burns or perhaps Polite, though, IMO.

Agreed. I put Ferrell there mostly because I think those 3 are on the same tier, but I think the NFL will love Ferrell, whereas pundits seem to like him the least. I wouldn't hate any of them but I think Burns is the best of them and also most likely to drop.