2019 NFL Draft - Quarterbacks

[Activated10]

On 2018-11-26 at 5:00 PM, Broncofan said:

I don’t see Tampa parting ways with Winston.  At least not until after 2019. The owners really support him.  If they were thinking to part ways they would have kept him benched to avoid the 2019 option guaranteeing for injury. 

FWIW I think Gruden will use the 2 later 1sts to get “his guy”.  He’s thrown Carr under the bus too many times to think otherwise.   Carr gets traded and he uses the pick capital to get QB in the teens (either DAL ends up there or he moves up).  I’m calling the OAK shot.  

Raiders def won't take a QB in the 1st Rd. I do agree they'll trade Carr but they're going to tank for Tua the following year. Gruden knows this team is awful and since he has 10 year contract, he doesn't need to reach for QB he doesn't like. Draft BPA and prob trade down to get more picks for next year. Draft Tua and rebuild almost done 

[Ozzy]

3 minutes ago, Activated10 said:

I currently have him 5 behind Mayfield, Jackson, Darnold and Rosen in that order. He's better than Allen because he can actually compete the forward pass

I agree I would have Herbert behind all of them as well.  But behind Josh Allen?  No. Josh Allen has a much bigger arm and is arguably a better athlete as well and is a physically bigger kid.  Sure Allen is raw and still needs to improve on his game, but what he has shown this year is very promising in terms of his athletic potential and overall upside.  He has had some great games this year and made some crazy impressive throws in the preseason and regular season.  Herbert does not have the same upside Allen has I feel.    

[Activated10]

1 minute ago, Ozzy said:

I agree I would have Herbert behind all of them as well.  But behind Josh Allen?  No. Josh Allen has a much bigger arm and is arguably a better athlete as well and is a physically bigger kid.  Sure Allen is raw and still needs to improve on his game, but what he has shown this year is very promising in terms of his athletic potential and overall upside.  He has had some great games this year and made some crazy impressive throws in the preseason and regular season.  Herbert does not have the same upside Allen has I feel.    

Josh Allen has a lot of talent and he's had impressive moments but I see Allen being Cam Newton lite. Where he'll have big moments and then games he'll look like garbage. No consistency

Huebert is Alex Smith.

 

Funny thing is I rather have Cam than Alex Smith so I guess should like Allen more but I think Huebert will show better playmaking ability than Alex Smith which means a better QB than cam

[Ozzy]

7 minutes ago, Activated10 said:

Josh Allen has a lot of talent and he's had impressive moments but I see Allen being Cam Newton lite. Where he'll have big moments and then games he'll look like garbage. No consistency

Huebert is Alex Smith.

 

Funny thing is I rather have Cam than Alex Smith so I guess should like Allen more but I think Huebert will show better playmaking ability than Alex Smith which means a better QB than cam

Alex Smith?  I do not see that, will see.

 

If anything Herbert will be drafted higher than he should be because of Josh Allen.  He is basically very similar to him, good athlete, tall, can run and throw on the run and has a strong arm.  Only difference is Allen is bigger, more athletic arguably and has a better more impressive throwing arm.  Herbert has played well this year but there are limitations to his game, against the best defense he faced all year, Washington he did not look all that great, at least he stayed pretty healthy all year and put together a complete season.

[Activated10]

8 hours ago, Broncofan said:

With all the doubt on how good the top end of the class is, one flip side - I think there are about 7-8 projects that are worth having on your team, just not worth a Rd1 pick (or even Rd2), as they need 1-2 years development time.  While there will be guys who go way too soon out of need, once the run is done, there's actually a chance to mine some value in Rd3-4.

Outside of the usual suspects being discussed - Herbert & Haskins, the issue is it's hard to separate the next group:

Grier - 24, Big 12, has struggled vs. better teams, pressure definitely gets to him, and smaller dude.  For age 24 to be not polished, more risk

Jones - almost polar opposite concerns, young, raw, but tools are there, and he hangs in the pocket and shows flashes of brilliance in the QB-specific skills.  

Lock - I have no idea how he's getting Round 1 talk again in more recent mainstream mocks.  I get it, 6'4, 220, strong arm.  But it's not generational like Allen, and he's got accuracy, pocket awareness, and processing-time issues.   Man, I don't see Rd1 at all.

Montez - small school, struggled against better competition, but unlike the others, so far he's flown under the radar.   Nowhere near a sure thing, given his struggles against good D's, but his Senior Bowl (RS Jr. so eligible in theory if he's going to graduate) & Combine will be huge.  Would love him him at Rd3 but BF2010 thinks he won't last that long.   Which would be a shame.

Thorson - terrible team, terrible OL & skill players the last 2 years, but he's hung in there post-ACL.  And he will regain full explosion next year (not that it will make him into a weapon, but will improve his pocket mobility).  He's shown toughness, and good anticipation / placement, and accurate short-medium, with very good deep ball strength, too..  Biggest problem besides awful cast - his mechanics need work - why he isn't as good in deep ball accuracy.  He will need a good QB coach to fix that.   The main benefit for Thorson is so far there's not even a hint of talk - which means he's probably there at Rd3, barring some Combine/Sr. Bowl explosion.

And I know I'm probably missing 2 others who will likely belong in that group.

As a DEN fan, I'd be happy if any of those guys were there at Rd3 - sadly, none of those guys separate enough to warrant a Rd1 pick.  And once the teams go Rd1 for QB, I think we'll see a lull, other than a team like NE/LAC going for their future guy (and even then, might not be until Rd3).   Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I suspect at least 1-2 of those guys will fall to Rd3.  I sure as h*** hope DEN doesn't reach Rd1 for QB - the one silver lining of our 2 upset W's (even though it was buoyed completely by a 6-0 TO margin, a blocked FG and some horrendous LAC play calling and game management to win) - we probably have done a lot of PR locally to let Elway not reach for QB as need in Rd1.  Which while I can't stand Keenum as our QB - I'd do anything and everything to keep DEN in the running for a Rd1 2020 QB, where there are 3-4 talents I'll feel much better about than anyone who will be there where we pick.

Which QBs in 20 draft do you want and what you like about them 

[Broncofan]

12 hours ago, Activated10 said:

Which QBs in 20 draft do you want and what you like about them 

The 3 who excite me are Tua, Fromm & Eason.   They all have demonstrated terrific throwing skills, and in Fromm and Tua’s case they have progressed as expected this year.   

What really has me excited is that all 3 succeeded at an early age against good competition.   That along with actually owning the QB skill set predicts NFL success much better than any other trait.   You need to have both the skills and early success to earn the label of future NFL franchise QB - but they do.   It’s why I was so high on 2018’s class (and still am, only Allen worries me and always has - and to be clear, I was highest on Darnold/Rosen, and after much debate, I was sold on Lamar working out, albeit with a redshirt year - Mayfield, I didn't know if he could be elite, I was sure he wasn't Manziel - but more if he'd just be average QB floor - so I will readily say I was too low on him).  And why I'm so down on 2019.  

Having said that the 2020 QB class depth explodes if Haskins stays.  His ceiling surpassses everyone but Tua and another year would do wonders to answer the critics.    I totally get why ppl are so split on Haskins now.  Another year of success and vs. BCS and Big 10 competition where he shines for another season, and the doubts go away. 

If 2020 had those 4 guys I’d be just as excited and probably more than 2018.   And I was super pumped with 2018.   I was crushed when DEN passed on Rosen at 1.5.  I’d be thrilled if we got 1 of those 4 in 2020.   It’s why I hope we pass on QB Rd1 (as many doubts as I have on this class we won’t even likely get a shot at Haskins or Herbert, and we don't even know if they will declare...but if they do, DEN certainly won't have them sitting there where we will be picking - the guys below them scare me way more beyond a Rd 2-3 risk).  

[BroncosFan2010]

Quote

Raiders def won't take a QB in the 1st Rd. I do agree they'll trade Carr but they're going to tank for Tua the following year. Gruden knows this team is awful and since he has 10 year contract, he doesn't need to reach for QB he doesn't like. Draft BPA and prob trade down to get more picks for next year. Draft Tua and rebuild almost done 

If OAK pulls a blatant tank two years in a row, I hope the NFL takes the NBA route and makes the top 3 picks a lotto. Thats probably how it should be already honestly.

[Broncofan]

14 hours ago, Activated10 said:

Raiders def won't take a QB in the 1st Rd. I do agree they'll trade Carr but they're going to tank for Tua the following year. Gruden knows this team is awful and since he has 10 year contract, he doesn't need to reach for QB he doesn't like. Draft BPA and prob trade down to get more picks for next year. Draft Tua and rebuild almost done 

That's definitely what a rational org would do.   But let's agree that Gruden hasn't exactly followed the rational path, either.

And remember, if you ask for a top 10 franchise QB list, he'll give you 30.   It only takes 1 guy for him to fall in love with, and his track record shows it can be a lot of guys.

[CWood21]

21 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

That's definitely what a rational org would do.   But let's agree that Gruden hasn't exactly followed the rational path, either.

And remember, if you ask for a top 10 franchise QB list, he'll give you 30.   It only takes 1 guy for him to fall in love with, and his track record shows it can be a lot of guys.

What exactly have they done that was so out there?  I mean, trading Mack was one thing but the Cooper trade was the perfect move.

[holt_bruce81]

Sorry if this has been already discussed, but what's everyone's opinion on Drew Lock?

[Broncofan]

8 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

What exactly have they done that was so out there?  I mean, trading Mack was one thing but the Cooper trade was the perfect move.

Their personnel decisions for FA were completely against what a rebuilding org would do.    Gruden's choice to have zero contact with Mack killed any trade value.     Even what Gruden is doing PR-wise now with Carr is only hurting his future trade value.  

The Cooper trade, and the idea that they weren't good enough to compete, and needed to rebuild, absolutely agreed.   The above, though, is completely incompatible with how to accomplish that goal.

 

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

Their personnel decisions for FA were completely against what a rebuilding org would do.    Gruden's choice to have zero contact with Mack killed any trade value.     Even what Gruden is doing PR-wise now with Carr is only hurting his future trade value. 

The Cooper trade, and the idea that they weren't good enough to compete, and needed to rebuild, absolutely agreed.   The above, though, is completely incompatible with how to accomplish that goal.

I mean, it's not like they went out and spent big bucks on FAs.  Their biggest signings were Jordy Nelson ($7.1M/year), Tahir Whitehead ($6.3M/year), and they signed a bunch of 1 year deals.  IMO, the FA signings were exactly the type that a rebuilding team would do.  Whitehead has started every single game for the Raiders.  But other than that, most of them were fillers for the roster.  Nothing crazy.

As for Mack, we've gone over this ad nauseam but the only thing I'll say there isn't much more that the Raiders were going to get.  The notion that they were going to get a pair of first round picks AND a young player weren't based in reality.  Overall, the Raiders roster was devoid of talent.  Right now, they're armed with 3 first round picks and what should be 4 picks in the first 40 picks.  I can't think of a single team in the last 25 years that was in this position.  I think the only team who comes close to having that kind of ammunition was when the Cowboys had four picks in the first 37 picks back in 1991.  That's a crap ton of picks to play around with.

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, it's not like they went out and spent big bucks on FAs.  Their biggest signings were Jordy Nelson ($7.1M/year), Tahir Whitehead ($6.3M/year), and they signed a bunch of 1 year deals.  IMO, the FA signings were exactly the type that a rebuilding team would do.  Whitehead has started every single game for the Raiders.  But other than that, most of them were fillers for the roster.  Nothing crazy.

As for Mack, we've gone over this ad nauseam but the only thing I'll say there isn't much more that the Raiders were going to get.  The notion that they were going to get a pair of first round picks AND a young player weren't based in reality.  Overall, the Raiders roster was devoid of talent.  Right now, they're armed with 3 first round picks and what should be 4 picks in the first 40 picks.  I can't think of a single team in the last 25 years that was in this position.  I think the only team who comes close to having that kind of ammunition was when the Cowboys had four picks in the first 37 picks back in 1991.  That's a crap ton of picks to play around with.

The Jordy Nelson signing was one I was against Day 1, though.   It was a terrible signing based off name value...or 2014 film.   

And if you are going to fill the roster, go a little young.  Like, even below 30.   Going with the guys as old as they were, it offers zero chance you can actually find a future gem you can use.   Re: Mack, I don't know if they could have gotten much more - but they also painted themselves in a corner by how they handled it.   Note how their greatest return was with a guy they didn't isolate or break off all contact with.  I get Mack held out, but having zero contact meant only a trade was happening.   But yeah, it's not like we're covering new ground.

I don't have a problem with the direction they chose.  I just have a fundamental disagreement that it's the rational way to go about operationalizing it (Cooper trade was fantastic, I'll give him that).   But it's also a sidebar to this thread, so I'll leave it at that lol.  No need to derail a QB thread on Gruden...at least until he makes his choice on what to do for 2019.  Then we can pick this convo up (with many other members, I'm sure lol).

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The Jordy Nelson signing was one I was against Day 1, though.   It was a terrible signing based off name value...or 2014 film.   

And if you are going to fill the roster, go a little young.  Like, even below 30.   Going with the guys as old as they were, it offers zero chance you can actually find a future gem you can use.   Re: Mack, I don't know if they could have gotten much more - but they also painted themselves in a corner by how they handled it.   Note how their greatest return was with a guy they didn't isolate or break off all contact with.  I get Mack held out, but having zero contact meant only a trade was happening.   But yeah, it's not like we're covering new ground.

I don't have a problem with the direction they chose.  I just have a fundamental disagreement that it's the rational way to go about operationalizing it (Cooper trade was fantastic, I'll give him that).   But it's also a sidebar to this thread, so I'll leave it at that lol.  No need to derail a QB thread on Gruden...at least until he makes his choice on what to do for 2019.  Then we can pick this convo up (with many other members, I'm sure lol).

I'd suspect (and I have nothing to base this off of) the signing of Nelson had more to do with finding a consistent veteran WR who could set a good example for his young WRs, and give Carr a consistent target.  He's clearly a fraction of his former self, but you're going to get solid production out of him.

You're really not going to find much in the way of young talent whose going to blossom.  Teams usually don't throw away young players prematurely, and the Raiders clearly want to instill a direction with this franchise.  It's a LOT easier to do that with veterans, not young players.  LIS, the Raiders have a direction which is something that I'm interested to see how it pans out.  I'd almost be inclined to flip one of their picks this year into a pick next year, if a team is willing to dangle a future 1st.  Take whoever is remaining available between Ed Oliver or Nick Bosa.

[Activated10]

On 2018-11-28 at 9:52 AM, Broncofan said:

The 3 who excite me are Tua, Fromm & Eason.   They all have demonstrated terrific throwing skills, and in Fromm and Tua’s case they have progressed as expected this year.   

What really has me excited is that all 3 succeeded at an early age against good competition.   That along with actually owning the QB skill set predicts NFL success much better than any other trait.   You need to have both the skills and early success to earn the label of future NFL franchise QB - but they do.   It’s why I was so high on 2018’s class (and still am, only Allen worries me and always has - and to be clear, I was highest on Darnold/Rosen, and after much debate, I was sold on Lamar working out, albeit with a redshirt year - Mayfield, I didn't know if he could be elite, I was sure he wasn't Manziel - but more if he'd just be average QB floor - so I will readily say I was too low on him).  And why I'm so down on 2019.  

Having said that the 2020 QB class depth explodes if Haskins stays.  His ceiling surpassses everyone but Tua and another year would do wonders to answer the critics.    I totally get why ppl are so split on Haskins now.  Another year of success and vs. BCS and Big 10 competition where he shines for another season, and the doubts go away. 

If 2020 had those 4 guys I’d be just as excited and probably more than 2018.   And I was super pumped with 2018.   I was crushed when DEN passed on Rosen at 1.5.  I’d be thrilled if we got 1 of those 4 in 2020.   It’s why I hope we pass on QB Rd1 (as many doubts as I have on this class we won’t even likely get a shot at Haskins or Herbert, and we don't even know if they will declare...but if they do, DEN certainly won't have them sitting there where we will be picking - the guys below them scare me way more beyond a Rd 2-3 risk).  

I'm not fan of Fromm, I think he's 3rd-4th Rd pick and will be beaten from Justin Fields who's much more talented QB next year and which he'll be forced to transfer. If Hawkins and Huebert come back then that DC of QBs will be special