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BigD1123

What is your REALISTIC expectation for this year?

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give me 10-6. We were outcoached week in week out last year. I expect Gruden to protect Carr and get him back to '16 form.

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Playoff berth.

 

anything less would be uncivilized 

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I think the Raiders will have success in the coming season 

I know everyone is high on the bolts, but I see them taking steps backwards as Rivers gets up there in age. I expect the Broncos to be the Broncos. The other team to look out for in the West in my opinion, is Kansas City. I expect that offense to be far better than it has been with Smith under center. I think it comes down to Raiders and Chiefs for the Division, with both possibly making the postseason. Just my somewhat outsider spin on things. Bolts and Broncos both will field a fierce D, but not enough offense to keep pace with KC/Oak over the course of 16 games. 

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16 hours ago, Darbsk said:

Thanks Rolni!

With regard the Chargers, I feel like the moves to bolster their OL are a little like our moves with CB the last few years - they could be good but it's a risk with injuries and inconsistency. Rivers is still a great player and a danger, Allen and Henry are very good receivers but I just always fancy our chances against the Chargers, we always seem to be able to turn the away game into a neutral territory. I'm more concerned with their D if I'm honest and the trifecta of Bosa, Ingram and Luiget looks very strong. Derwin James I really loved as a prospect and with guys like Verrett and Hayward there they have big potential in the secondary and I like Gus Bradley as a DC. They will be tough and as you say, great on paper but perhaps it's just the optimist in me, I just feel like they'll find a way to underachieve again.

KC I have a grudging respect for - great coach and plenty of speed and big play potential though I'm not sold on Mahomes and I think pretty much everyone underrated Alex Smith and how much stability he brought to KC, was particularly effective against us! They have some talent on D but they don't fill me with dread like a few years ago when Hali and Houston were running amok. Bailey and Jones I like along the DL but they might be fading a little as a defensive powerhouse, they've outcoached us recently but I think we could be about to change that.

Denver I see as an average side but no more, Keenum won't play as well as he did last season IMO and I see him as no more than an average starter who was put in a great situation last year and exceeded expectations. They have some very nice talent again on D but their QB and OL don't inspire me. Emmanuel Sanders is a class act at WR and Demaryius Thomas of course shouldn't be written off after a down year. Their DL was quite porous last year and I don't see much improvement there and no real big moves, Peko is a year older and Shelby Harris and Wolfe are solid rather than scary. 

Now, I don't expect us to dominate the division this year but I don't see any sides we can't beat and I'd think we'd at least split the games and may sneak a double against Denver which will put us right in the hunt. It's really interesting this year as all 4 teams have a few very strong areas and some particular lean parts of the team.   

Chargers: They just lost Henry with an ACL...they must really have a curse on them...
I agree with you that their OL is kinda a boom or bust unit...I think a strong run game will be a must against that D. If we have that we have a solid chance. And obviously we have to get into Rivers face!

KC's defense is not that dangerous anymore, if we have a strong running game we have a good chance to controll them. It will be interesting what happens with Mahomes at the helm. They will be a dangerous big play offense IMO, but they could be prone to mistakes too. Smith was a machine and he owned us as you said...Mahomes will be a rookie essentially, so with a complex D and some interesting blitz packages we could have success against him.

Denver seems like the weakest link in the division to me, however an improved QB play can make a big difference. We know Musgrave can be creative and could call good games. That defense with Chubb and Miller could again be special, however that No Fly Zone is over IMO and they somewhat struggled against the run in recent years...

 

Overall I think we need a strong and consistent running game. If we have that I trust Carr, Gruden and Olson to find ways to make plays, make big plays and score points through the air. On the other side we need discipline, solid run D and finally some interior pressure. Easier to say then do obviously, but I like our chances with PG and his scheme, with Trgovac and with the Hurst, Hall, Key pick ups...

My fear is that we need the OL and Cable to perform well in order to have the run game going and he is my weak link in this coaching staff since his hiring...I try to think about his time with us when he made that OL servicable and made Fargas and Bush look good and also his early years with Lynch in Seatlle, but still...

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Oakland has gotten better.

Coaching: Gruden is better than JDR who I was willing to ride with to Vegas if not for a 'splash' coaching hire like Gruden.

Offense: Depth on the Oline and more speed at WR. Health of the QB is most important.

Defense: Coaching, all new CB's and some youth on the Dline. LB depth and just more talent overall on D.

 

KC has gotten worse on D. Peters gone and the pass rush not what it use to be. Offense will struggle with a young QB and be streaky. Once Pat puts it all together it will be deadly IMO.

Denver D got Chubb but didn't improve. I feel it's living off it's SB rep but not even close to what it once was. A new QB who seems like an older version of what they replaced in Trevor. Oline needs help and running game not what it once was as a 'system'

LA (I wanted to write SD and don't think they have a homefield advantage vs anyone) Lost their TE, Rivers aging but the D has improved and will be the threat behind KC.

I just honestly see us as the best team in the division overall. We improved in all phases while our rivals got worse. KC needs a season or two because of Pat's development. LA is a wildcard that usually disappoints their fans so maybe they go the opposite this season. (LOL) Denver is the worst team but could surprise if Case is as good as he was in Minny last year.

In Oakland our biggest concern is our OC and OL coaches...Chucky is there to oversee it all so we should be solid, esp. if that fire still burns as hot as it did before...

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I think to many of you place weight on the 2016 season which was a one-off. Saying things like "return to 2016 form" as a justifier for a playoff run this year. That team could have easily been .500 without some late game heroics from Carr.

This team should be better coached, but their are some glaring talent voids on the roster. Starting (predictably) again at LB. I don't trust Derrick Johnson and his twice repaired achilles to add anything more than experience to the MLB spot.

The safeties are again going to be suspect. KJ has to show up and the team is trotting what's left of Reggie Nelson out there as a starter. At CB, you have Melvin a journey man who has less than 1 season of productive play. And Dline, you're relying on young guys to figure it out quick. This defense is going to be a work in progress at best. 

On offense, it's easy to say under Gruden Carr should return to form. But there is also possibility he doesn't. Maybe he's just a middle of the road QB who had 1 good season. There are going to be questions at both tackle spots. And RB is trotting out two guys who would have been all world 4 years ago. 

Literally everything will have to click for the Raiders to make the playoffs in a strong AFC West. Nelson/Johnson will need to find the fountain of youth. Bryant will need to stay out of trouble. Penn will need to come back 100% and a rookie play out of the world on the right side. Martin will need to bounce back from poor seasons. The list can go on. 

Team is still a couple years away from being much of anything IMO.

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I think we're a 7 to 9 win ballclub, same as we truly were in 2016 when the ball just bounced our way in close games that year. 

The defense should be slightly improved thanks to Gunther, but still bad. Not enough talent on that side of the ball. 

Offense should be better, but we have a lot of question marks. The biggest one being is who is the real DC. Is he the MVP candidate of 2016 or is he the timid, scary QB we saw last year that is on par with the Andy Dalton's and Ryan Tannehills of the world. 

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Looking at the roster:

The coaching staff is undeniably improved at all levels. That will pay dividends for the offense and defense.

Edgar Bennett, Bisaccia, Trgovac and other assistants are at the top of the league in terms of reputation/performance. 

On defense:

We will be getting back Conley and Melifonwu, who we haven't had real exposure to.

We will be getting rookie defensive additions of Arden Key, Maurice Hurst, PJ Hall, and Nick Nelson, all players with starting upside, with Hurst figuring to be a day 1 starter at 3 technique, and has pro ready pass rush ability on 3rd down.

We have a good run stopping LB in whitehead and a proven coverage linebacker in derrick johnson, assuming he isn't asked to start full time. Gilchrist brings versatility as a nickelback or starting safety. Those guys have started a lot of games in the league and won't be as prone to mental errors as rooks like last year. In addition, Morrow flashed some upside and his growth will be something to watch.

Melvin was only available because he performed at the level he did for one year, as he allowed an extremely low passer rating, and PFF rated him between Peters and Talib in terms of overall grade. 13/16 weeks also is close to a full season and he did so on a Colts team lacking in standout players, as opposed to as a piece of an elite defense where his weaknesses could be easily masked.

On offense:

The receiving core is undeniably upgraded, assuming Bryant doesn't get suspended, which is looking less and less likely. In addition, adding Switzer and Ateman for more competition can't hurt as far as depth goes. Jordy, from talking to the packers forum, at the very least will move the chains, not drop the ball, and factor into the redzone. Bryant and Cooper can do damage over the top, as they've proven over multiple seasons.

Lynch is coming off a good season where he was underused in a horrifically coached offense. Cook played well and shows no signs of decline. Martin is a wildcard, but the upside is there if he has something left, and Richard and Washington are good rotational backs, provided both have issues at times.

The line should remain a major strength, with the rookies providing competition at right tackle. Despite Kolton Millers detractors, he graded very well in terms of pass block efficiency according to PFF and figures to at least play at Newhouses level with upside for more.

I'm a huge fan of what Gruden has done. He hasn't left anyone comfortable and has attacked multiple positions on the roster. Greg Papa mentioned how Gruden's offense will be state of the art, much like his former pupils McVay and Shannahan.

I couldn't be more optimistic for this team's future. 

I'll say 9-7 or 10-6. If this was JDR, probably 6-10 to 8-8. But this is a different staff with a far more promising vision.

 

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6 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

couldn't be more optimistic for this team's future. 

I agree here. The future look promising, if for nothing more than consistency in coaching. But your post leans way to optimistic for my liking. It's typical of every post this time of year where you highlight everything as improvement without looking at some serious down side. 

Too much emphasis on veterans who may or may not have anything left. On average 50% of a teams FA signings are busts. Too much emphasis on rookie players having major roles and excelling early. 

You also have to look at the AFC West:

Denver - defense will be solid and added a major player in Chubb. Keenum is an upgrade over their QBs last season

KC - Offense will be electric despite some growing pains with Mahomes.

LA - Top to bottom a talented, sound roster with a veteran QB. If healthy they could compete for an AFC title. 

9-7 IMO is if everything breaks right for the team. I could easily see this team as a 6-7 win team going through some growing pains.

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8 hours ago, big_palooka said:

I agree here. The future look promising, if for nothing more than consistency in coaching. But your post leans way to optimistic for my liking. It's typical of every post this time of year where you highlight everything as improvement without looking at some serious down side. 

Too much emphasis on veterans who may or may not have anything left. On average 50% of a teams FA signings are busts. Too much emphasis on rookie players having major roles and excelling early. 

You also have to look at the AFC West:

Denver - defense will be solid and added a major player in Chubb. Keenum is an upgrade over their QBs last season

KC - Offense will be electric despite some growing pains with Mahomes.

LA - Top to bottom a talented, sound roster with a veteran QB. If healthy they could compete for an AFC title. 

9-7 IMO is if everything breaks right for the team. I could easily see this team as a 6-7 win team going through some growing pains.

3

There are a lot of unknowns, but I watched a lot of these players in college and liked them then. Also, you called Melvin a journeyman when he was very good last year.

I disagree with this logic about FA. You need to look at the player, not the bust rate.

We had 6 wins last year with a hard schedule, a terible coach/staff, and less talent. You really think 9-7 is this team's ceiling? Man that's crazy.

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43 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Also, you called Melvin a journeyman when he was very good last year.

Exactly. On his 7th team now and has 1 good season where he played in only 10 games. Not buying anything with his sample size

 

47 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

I disagree with this logic about FA. You need to look at the player, not the bust rate.

Look at the player how? Looking at the players, there are several vets won't amount to much.

 

48 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

We had 6 wins last year with a hard schedule, a terible coach/staff, and less talent. You really think 9-7 is this team's ceiling? Man that's crazy.

One year does not predict the next. Fan logic this time of year.... your team always gets better but don't factor in the fact a lot of other teams got better as well. 

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27 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Exactly. On his 7th team now and has 1 good season where he played in only 10 games. Not buying anything with his sample size

 

Look at the player how? Looking at the players, there are several vets won't amount to much.

 

One year does not predict the next. Fan logic this time of year.... your team always gets better but don't factor in the fact a lot of other teams got better as well. 

 

 

 

Again, if you think this team's ceiling is 9 wins, not only do you not buy into any of the moves, but you don't buy into the coaches, or the fact that we only face 4 playoff teams, have the 4th EASIEST strength of schedule, compared to last year, when we had the 4th HARDEST. I don't think you know what ceiling means. If everything goes right, this team could be a contender right now. Obviously, that's extremely unreasonable, but that's why it's called a ceiling.

Being unreasonably negative doesn't make you look insightful. We have all the pieces to put together a dangerous team. Will it come together? Maybe not. But if it does, I'd expect more than 9 wins against this schedule.

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

 

 

Again, if you think this team's ceiling is 9 wins, not only do you not buy into any of the moves, but you don't buy into the coaches, or the fact that we only face 4 playoff teams, have the 4th EASIEST strength of schedule, compared to last year, when we had the 4th HARDEST. I don't think you know what ceiling means. If everything goes right, this team could be a contender right now. Obviously, that's extremely unreasonable, but that's why it's called a ceiling.

Being unreasonably negative doesn't make you look insightful. We have all the pieces to put together a dangerous team. Will it come together? Maybe not. But if it does, I'd expect more than 9 wins against this schedule.

 

 

 

No, I'm realistic. I love Gruden and the staff he's put together. The future looks positive, but there are glaring weaknesses on the team that will take time to correct and develop. I also don't care what teams did last year, because the NFL changes every year. 

It's not being negative to think this is a 9 win team. Because I don't buy the defense being anything more than slightly better. If they are going to win 10+ games, it will be because they knocked it out of the park with their draft picks on defense and they stayed healthy. That's why I feel the team is a year away.  New system, too many new faces, new coaches, etc. It will take some time.

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12 hours ago, big_palooka said:

No, I'm realistic. I love Gruden and the staff he's put together. The future looks positive, but there are glaring weaknesses on the team that will take time to correct and develop. I also don't care what teams did last year, because the NFL changes every year. 

It's not being negative to think this is a 9 win team. Because I don't buy the defense being anything more than slightly better. If they are going to win 10+ games, it will be because they knocked it out of the park with their draft picks on defense and they stayed healthy. That's why I feel the team is a year away.  New system, too many new faces, new coaches, etc. It will take some time.

1

You said this team's CEILING is 9 wins... That's pretty negative to me.

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