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Earl Thomas to report today - Dallas ups offer to a second round pick

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1 hour ago, animaltested said:

Also its not out of the realm of possibility Seattle does offer an extension during the season (ala Kam and Marshawn). Seattle wiped away all the fines from missing camp and the PS and what not. I personally dont think they will extend him due to Seattle shifting their resources over the to offense (to build around their soon to be 35 million dollar man; already invested in Wagner too) but its not an impossible scenario. 

The rules of the franchise tag dictate that teams have until mid-July to hammer out an extension with players. If not, the two sides are barred from engaging in contract talks until after the season has concluded.

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17 hours ago, RuskieTitan said:

So why do you eliminate the possibility of the Seahawks winning a Super Bowl and Earl Thomas playing a big role in that?

You are writing them off before they played one regular season snap. Is it unlikely they reach the Super Bowl? Certainly. But how many folks were predicting the 2015 Carolina Panthers to go 15-1 and reach the SB after losing their #1 WR in Benjamin at the time?

Most likely the best move for the Seahawks long term may be to get a draft pick. But you assume that the draft pick will be used for something that contributes value. Remember, this is the team that spent a high 2nd round pick in 2017 on Malik McDowell, who never played a snap for them and whose career is over. So it's entirely possible that 1 year of Earl Thomas provides more value to the franchise than a draft pick.

Just my 2 cents.

Any team can win the Superbowl this year, but realistically the Seahawks are not winning the Superbowl this year, and even they know that or else they wouldn't have unloaded most of their talent this offseason and decided to get a lot younger on both sides of the ball. Nothing that the Seahawks have done have indicated they are in "win now" mode, while everything suggests they are in rebuilding mode.

The Panthers lost Benjamin, but they didn't approach that season by unloading their defensive talent, shipping away Greg Olsen and Ted Ginn Jr. (IIRC he wasn't on the Saints yet?). They lost one player. This isn't the same.

I'm not even assuming the draft pick contributes to something of value, though I would argue getting a 2nd rounder certainly presents you the opportunity to add value, whereas keeping Earl Thomas for one more year in what is undoubtedly a rebuilding year does not. Malik McDowell's career ending had nothing to do with Seattle - the dude had an accident on an ATV. It's like blaming the Ravens for spending a 2nd round pick on Sergio Kindle because in his 2nd or 3rd year he fell down a flight of stairs and had to retire shortly afterwards. Freak stuff happens. It's not like they picked an absolute bust (and there are plenty of recent Seahawks draft picks that fall into that category, such as Germain Ifedi).

Earl Thomas is leaving the Seahawks after this year, if not sooner. If they trade him, that's the smart play because it allows them to add a draft pick which will more than likely add future value, especially if it's a 1st or 2nd rounder. If he walks, the BEST comp pick they can receive is a 3rd rounder, and that's if they don't sign someone who cancels that out. Maybe they're okay with receiving a 3rd rounder because they've decided they suck at drafting in the first 2 rounds. That's certainly a possibility, too.

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17 hours ago, ragevsuall17 said:

3. Tag him and sign him long term

4. Tag him and trade him

5. Don't tag him and get a 3rd round comp pick

Why's everyone assuming there's limited options? Seattle has been down this road before... Chancellor actually sat out a few games before returning. He eventually signed. 

Nothing wrong with Seattle getting some assurances before giving him a new contract. He's missed games the past 2 seasons. If he rebounds, they tag him and keep him or trade him for that high pick they're waiting on (in addition to having him play at that high level for them this season)... or he doesn't, and they let him go and get a comp pick. Its as gamble, but one worth taking, banking on him rebounding and continuing to play like one of the best safeties in the league. 

I wouldn't be so freely ragging on other people for assuming stuff when you're doing the exact same.

#4 is not going to return you a 2nd round pick.  If you tag him and end up trading him, Earl gets to dictate where he goes (he has to be under contract in order for him to be traded and that means he has to willfully sign the franchise tender - that gives him incredible leverage in saying where he will and won't accept being traded to).

#5 assumes Earl on the open market gets a massive contract (which flies in the face of recent trend for his position on the open market) AND that the Hawks don't make any free agent signing that offset the formula.  More likely, if you're counting on the return of a comp pick, you're looking at a 4th or 5th round pick (a year removed from the season he actually leaves) far more likely than a 3rd.

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2 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

The rules of the franchise tag dictate that teams have until mid-July to hammer out an extension with players. If not, the two sides are barred from engaging in contract talks until after the season has concluded.

Well, he's not currently franchise tagged; he's still under contract (the final year) per the extension he signed in 2014.  The soonest he could be tagged is next March and that's when he'd be subject to that mid-July deadline to work out an extension or be barred from engaging in contract talks until after the conclusion of that season.  Just FYI.

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1 hour ago, The LBC said:

I wouldn't be so freely ragging on other people for assuming stuff when you're doing the exact same.

#4 is not going to return you a 2nd round pick.  If you tag him and end up trading him, Earl gets to dictate where he goes (he has to be under contract in order for him to be traded and that means he has to willfully sign the franchise tender - that gives him incredible leverage in saying where he will and won't accept being traded to).

#5 assumes Earl on the open market gets a massive contract (which flies in the face of recent trend for his position on the open market) AND that the Hawks don't make any free agent signing that offset the formula.  More likely, if you're counting on the return of a comp pick, you're looking at a 4th or 5th round pick (a year removed from the season he actually leaves) far more likely than a 3rd.

1 year of no big contracts signed at the position now represents a trend?  What elite or top notch player was overlooked this past offseason?  The only elite level S signed an $11M franchise tag.  Matthieu has the name... but is he still elite and worth a huge contract? Burnett is good... nowhere near elite.

2016 saw Berry sign a 6/$76M contract; Reshad Jones sign a 5/$60M contract; even Chancellor sign a 3/$36M contract... Harrison Smith also received $10M a couple of seasons ago.

Next year's market shows an opportunity for a few elite level players to hit the market... Joyner, Thomas, Collins, Dix (?)... We'll see if the market is really depressed for S's... or if it was a one year trend.

Regardless... the Seahawks obviously feel they have more options than just get a 2nd now or lose him for nothing later.  I'm just showing that there could be more options... not assuming in any way that every option will hold true one year from now.

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1 hour ago, ragevsuall17 said:

1 year of no big contracts signed at the position now represents a trend?  What elite or top notch player was overlooked this past offseason?  The only elite level S signed an $11M franchise tag.  Matthieu has the name... but is he still elite and worth a huge contract? Burnett is good... nowhere near elite.

2016 saw Berry sign a 6/$76M contract; Reshad Jones sign a 5/$60M contract; even Chancellor sign a 3/$36M contract... Harrison Smith also received $10M a couple of seasons ago.

Next year's market shows an opportunity for a few elite level players to hit the market... Joyner, Thomas, Collins, Dix (?)... We'll see if the market is really depressed for S's... or if it was a one year trend.

Regardless... the Seahawks obviously feel they have more options than just get a 2nd now or lose him for nothing later.  I'm just showing that there could be more options... not assuming in any way that every option will hold true one year from now.

A 30-year-old Earl Thomas, even if he manages to stay healthy for 16 games this season (something he hasn't shown the ability to do the last 2) is not going to get a market-setting contract.  Comparing younger players who were getting their second contracts to what Thomas can expect to get on a 3rd contract - particularly when the potential for as many younger safeties as you pointed out to hit the market.  The 3rd round compensatory selections are almost always reserved for compensating the loss of top dollar contract-earners in a given free agency period and with guys like Joyner, Lawrence (assuming no 2nd tag), Bell, Johnson (assuming no tag), Collins (likely gets tagged or extended, but possible), Clowney, Jarrett, and Darby hitting the market (and the wild card that is Bridgewater), that's not leaving a lot of room in the pool for what usually end up being only 3-4 (4 max) 3rd round compensatory selections that get awarded and the fact that pass-rushers and corners (don't even have to be elite, scarcity typically pushes the top corner on the market up to a top-part-of-the-market contract) tend to trump safeties on the free agent market (and again, this is the free agent/open market, not a team extending their own player where they're effectively bidding against themselves because the player and his agent aren't able to field competing offers from other clubs).

 

I'm expecting the best case scenario for the Rams on Suh is a 4th round comp return - unless the committee decides to lump Suh and Joyner together to account for a 3rd (which, I believe, isn't the practice).

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1 hour ago, The LBC said:

...A 30-year-old Earl Thomas, even if he manages to stay healthy for 16 games this season (something he hasn't shown the ability to do the last 2) is not going to get a market-setting contract. ...

...The 3rd round compensatory selections are almost always reserved for compensating the loss of top dollar contract-earners in a given free agency period ...

...that's not leaving a lot of room in the pool for what usually end up being only 3-4 (4 max) 3rd round compensatory selections that get awarded...

I never stated he'd be getting a market setting contract (that'll be Collins if he signs long term).  If (that's still IF at this moment)... if he hits FA, I don't expect him to be the highest paid S (for long at least)... but I do expect him to get top 3ish S money... getting an $11+M/yr contract... it might contain a lot of fluff/unguaranteed money he'll never see... but the contract will carry that full weight in potential comp pick calculations...  I believe the Seahawks are banking on that kind of bounce back season.  It's the gamble they're taking by not trading him now for that 2nd. I agree with them that it's a smart gamble... I expect a big bounce back season.  And in that case, comp picks won't matter cause they'll tag him, possibly extend him... or trade him.  Worst case scenario he's tagged for another year. But I bring Kam up again... held out, missed games... and signed a 12M/yr contract extension at age 29.  Cap's grown since... ET is hands down the better S... so I don't expect him to sign for less.

The CBA is vague but lists a formula... contract size, playing time, and post season awards.  Of all the FA's you mentioned... I agree that at this point that most of them will possibly be more valuable in the formula than ET.  But I don't think anyone expects all those names to hit the open market.  I don't think even half of them will hit the market (and even that may be overstating it)... just like every year, most of them will sign extensions or be tagged.  

The CBA is also vague on how many comp picks are to be issued other than stating a total of 32 comp picks total will be given on any given season (and even then, the number isn't actually in the CBA... it mentions there will be as many comp picks as there are teams in the league).  The norm/max may be 4 per season, but that's probably just a testament to how many actually elite FA's hit the FA market each year once it's all said and done.  Both NFL.com and OTC are projecting seven (7!?!?) 3rd round picks next draft.  While those are projections just based on contract size and will obviously change once the season plays out (and injuries rear their way through the league), it still shows that there is not a hard set figure as to how many 3rd rounders are issued.  It's strictly based on value... 

I'll restate that this is all going against the very likely possibility that Seattle tags ET.  If he has the season they think he does, they'll tag him.  What happens after that...happens... but Seattle is banking on ET bouncing back and being able to keep him or trade him for decent value.  If they can still trade him for a 2nd next year, they win since they were able to get a season out of him.  If they get more, then even better for them.  And if he sucks, gets hurt, or just doesn't have the type of season they (or I) think he will... then they lose out on a 2nd round pick.  They currently sit with the 7th most cap space projected in 2019, so they'll just have to spend that money elsewhere if this is the case.

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20 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

The rules of the franchise tag dictate that teams have until mid-July to hammer out an extension with players. If not, the two sides are barred from engaging in contract talks until after the season has concluded.

Yeah, I know this rule applies to Bell as well... what's the purpose to this rule in the first place though?

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Thomas is getting Tagged at the end of his contract. There is Zero chance barring a career ending injury, he's not. Now whether he remains a Seahawk for the 2019 season is the only question.

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10 hours ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Yeah, I know this rule applies to Bell as well... what's the purpose to this rule in the first place though?

That's a good question. I have no idea. Seems like it would benefit both parties to be able to keep that negotiating going.

It was pointed out earlier to me that Thomas isn't playing under the tag this year though so it does apply to Bell this year but not ET.

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