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Matt Breida

NcFinest9erFan

By NcFinest9erFan
in Fantasy Football

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Forge said:

No, I wouldn't

I tend to agree, and I don't like chasing points, but I would say @KC is probably going to be a Breida-game for gamescript.

But given the fact he only got 39 percent of the snaps (but in a game where the 49ers got up 20 points, kinda makes sense), I think Breida is a top 24 RB this week in PPR.   In games where SF figures to be ahead, I would think he's a desperation FLEX play.   

Thing about Miller is that Blue (and eventually Foreman) eat into his touches.  He's not a true bellcow, each year everyone drafts him like HOU is going to use him that way, and they never do.

I'd actually be OK with Breida over Miller if the OP is the underdog, because the ceiling is massive with Breida in the highest-scoring game and a catchup game-script.    But I would only say that for such games - he's still very much a timeshare back.   

I defer to your local team knowledge, but from PPR fantasy, I will say Breida's got a fantastic matchup this week.  If you own Breida, there may not ever be a better week to play him for a while (unless you play PIT, or NE, etc.).

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Forge

Forge

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I tend to agree, and I don't like chasing points, but I would say @KC is probably going to be a Breida-game for gamescript.

But given the fact he only got 39 percent of the snaps (but in a game where the 49ers got up 20 points, kinda makes sense), I think Breida is a top 24 RB this week in PPR.   In games where SF figures to be ahead, I would think he's a desperation FLEX play.   

Thing about Miller is that Blue (and eventually Foreman) eat into his touches.  He's not a true bellcow, each year everyone drafts him like HOU is going to use him that way, and they never do.

I'd actually be OK with Breida over Miller if the OP is the underdog, because the ceiling is massive with Breida in the highest-scoring game and a catchup game-script.    But I would only say that for such games - he's still very much a timeshare back.   

I defer to your local team knowledge, but from PPR fantasy, I will say Breida's got a fantastic matchup this week.  If you own Breida, there may not ever be a better week to play him for a while (unless you play PIT, or NE, etc.).

Pretty much what I"m thinking. Obviously, Breida's talent is there. But the fact of the matter is, less than 40% snap share, still only 12 touches or whatever it was. Typically, that's probably going to net you 4-5 points unless he breaks one. He's not getting more carries right now, he's not getting the goal line touches. You're basically banking on him breaking one and I don't love that. 

Yes, he has a game that may induce some heavy pass plays down the stretch, but one, I'd rather not count on garbage time stats. Two, I thought KC did a good job of bottling up James Connor and I think Pitts offensive line is significantly better than the 49ers. That game was on the road while this one is at home. 

I like Miller's match up this week as well though. He's playing the Giants. Could very easily end up grinding down a win in the late stages and I feel like the donut touchdown snaps this week. 

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CriminalMind

CriminalMind

Posted
Posted

Standard:

Breida is still not start worthy, unless your hurting for RBs.
11 touches, 1 touch in the 4th quarter, when SF was trying to preserve the lead.
If usage distribution stays the same between Breida & Morris, then week 2 is likely to be Breida's best game.

Breida got 11 (same) touches in his 1st game (yes, vs Minny), and he put up 5.10 points.
He got 12.6 points on one play vs the weak DET D.

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
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8 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

Standard:

Breida is still not start worthy, unless your hurting for RBs.
11 touches, 1 touch in the 4th quarter, when SF was trying to preserve the lead.
If usage distribution stays the same between Breida & Morris, then week 2 is likely to be Breida's best game.

Breida got 11 (same) touches in his 1st game (yes, vs Minny), and he put up 5.10 points.
He got 12.6 points on one play vs the weak DET D.

Yeah, that's the issue with Breida.   The only time where he figures to get more than a straight timeshare is if SF looks to be behind and playing catchup.  DET up 20 - no pass work.  @KC seems to fit a gamescript where it's going to be 60 mins of catching up (or at least keeping up).

The other part is that KC's D is awful vs. pass catching RB's, TE's, well all pass catchers in general.   Week 1, Ekeler and MG3 just tore them apart.  Week 2, they couldn't stop JuJu or the TE, so PIT didn't need to attack the RB.   For a Shanny O, and especially with Goodwin hurting and Garçon's age showing, I do think we'll see a lot of Kittle and RB usage..which means Breida.

Don't get me wrong, I totally agree that Week 2 is likely to be his best week of the season.   But I think a 15 pt PPR target for KC is reasonable, assuming he gets 5/50 in catches, and then 50 yards in split run work.   Remember that Morris caught 2 balls - which is unlikely to happen, well, ever again lol.   

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Forge

Forge

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah, that's the issue with Breida.   The only time where he figures to get more than a straight timeshare is if SF looks to be behind and playing catchup.  DET up 20 - no pass work.  @KC seems to fit a gamescript where it's going to be 60 mins of catching up (or at least keeping up).

The other part is that KC's D is awful vs. pass catching RB's, TE's, well all pass catchers in general.   Week 1, Ekeler and MG3 just tore them apart.  Week 2, they couldn't stop JuJu or the TE, so PIT didn't need to attack the RB.   For a Shanny O, and especially with Goodwin hurting and Garçon's age showing, I do think we'll see a lot of Kittle and RB usage..which means Breida.

Don't get me wrong, I totally agree that Week 2 is likely to be his best week of the season.   But I think a 15 pt PPR target for KC is reasonable, assuming he gets 5/50 in catches, and then 50 yards in split run work.   Remember that Morris caught 2 balls - which is unlikely to happen, well, ever again lol.   

The thing with Breida that kind of sucks though is that while he is the team's pass catching back, he's not what you would consider a good pass catching back. He's just not an overly natural pass catcher at this point in time. He's getting better, and I would hope that eventually he can be that guy (they don't utilize running backs as pass catchers at Georgia Southern) but he still fights the passes a little bit too much and his routes probably aren't as crisp as we want them to be, especially given that the pass routes aren't just basic swing passes from Shanny a lot of the time. I don't think he's a guy that will have 6 receptions in a game for the 49ers. 

I think next weak, the major beneficiaries are Kittle and Celek, particularly the former. 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Forge said:

The thing with Breida that kind of sucks though is that while he is the team's pass catching back, he's not what you would consider a good pass catching back. He's just not an overly natural pass catcher at this point in time. He's getting better, and I would hope that eventually he can be that guy (they don't utilize running backs as pass catchers at Georgia Southern) but he still fights the passes a little bit too much and his routes probably aren't as crisp as we want them to be, especially given that the pass routes aren't just basic swing passes from Shanny a lot of the time. I don't think he's a guy that will have 6 receptions in a game for the 49ers. 

I think next weak, the major beneficiaries are Kittle and Celek, particularly the former. 

Kittle was the highest owned TE on DFS large tourneys in DK this past week, thinking he'd dominate against DET (when the game script concerns were pretty obvious to see, and a huge part of why his stat sheet looks so meh, not on him) - so many ppl are going to be off him because of that.

I on the other hand, am going to be all over him this week in DFS.   Agree he's the guy who eats most, by far.  I'm just comfortable seeing some work go Breida's way.  

But yeah, losing McKinnon really hurts.   McKinnon is a home run threat every time he gets the ball in space.  He put up 8-100+ vs. CIN basically living off routes, and that's probably (along with 10-12 carries) what Shanny had in mind.   Breida's no McKinnon lite, that's for sure.

I think SF has to be in on the Gordon sweepstakes - no McKinnon really changes how the O was going to work.

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NcFinest9erFan

NcFinest9erFan

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Yeah thanks for all the info. This is what I'm thinking and I wished I would of started Breida over Miller this week probably could of won this week but to be honest, I thought Houston would of ran away with this game so all this is hind sight but yeah I don't mind starting him this week in what should another shootout/picking up the pace game. 

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