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2019 Draft Discussion


jleisher

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7 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

Just from the tape, Ferguson looks like a straight-line speed-power guy like Montez Sweat. Probably not gonna do great in the 3-cone/shuttle but should jump well. His 40/10 time will be important. If he can't create speed fast enough, it'll be hard for him to just power through NFL OL. I'm super intrigued by him though.

Ferguson wise...he shows me more bend and agility than Sweat.  Enough to have me very interested in his Combine.  He "won" a lot of different ways in college.  Enormous production and I liked that he seemed to have a natural swim/strip move.  For a big guy, I saw him bend pretty good.

Label me "super intrigued" by him as well.

How about that Texas kid?  Omenihu?  I haven't watched much on him yet, but he seems to have a nice power game, too.

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4 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Ferguson wise...he shows me more bend and agility than Sweat.  Enough to have me very interested in his Combine.  He "won" a lot of different ways in college.  Enormous production and I liked that he seemed to have a natural swim/strip move.  For a big guy, I saw him bend pretty good.

Label me "super intrigued" by him as well.

How about that Texas kid?  Omenihu?  I haven't watched much on him yet, but he seems to have a nice power game, too.

I agree on Ferguson. Looks a little looser than Sweat. Just thinks he profiles a little more closely to Sweat than say Ferrell on the bend/power scale. 

Omenihu may fly up boards. It's a weird thing to notice, but he can get really low for a 6'6'' guy. His ankles are unreal. Let's him play with his hands above his eyes, which is phenomenal for leverage, especially at 6'6''. I don't really have him anywhere yet on a board or ranking because I really need to see what he does at the combine. But he's super intriguing.

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8 minutes ago, Isherwood said:

rcon, I think you could have quite a following writing about this stuff.. ;)

Omenihu is my dark horse for the guy who has a great combine, GB drafts him, most fans say "WHO?!?!", but real heads know. 

 

That's what the forum is for lol. I put feelers out but everyone wants to be a draftnik so it ends up here.

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15 minutes ago, Isherwood said:

rcon, I think you could have quite a following writing about this stuff.. ;)

Omenihu is my dark horse for the guy who has a great combine, GB drafts him, most fans say "WHO?!?!", but real heads know. 

 

Big Omenihu fan. Could see Pettine liking him a lot too. My 3 favorite edge guys for GB are Polite, Burns & Omenihu.

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On 2/2/2019 at 10:01 AM, Packerraymond said:

You're being unrealistic in your expectations. You'll see the same thing on film for every edge player you scout. No one is going to sprint to ball every time. Also he has outside contain on the QB there, so if he does, he's going to give up a big play.

There was someone who was adamant that Myles Garrett was going to be a bust because he wasn't chasing down the ball carrier from the backside.

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On 2/2/2019 at 12:48 PM, packfanfb said:

Burns is right there with those guys. In fact, post-combine I think it's a safe bet Burns will quickly start to show up in the top 15 in mocks on a consistent basis. I think there's a real chance he's not even there at 12. 

Personally I'd take Burns right now over Ferrell and Sweat because the latter two don't have the flexibility/bend I want at EDGE. Polite and Burns are 1a and 1b for me, but you can easily argue that Burns comes with more upside because of his frame and ability to add some mass.

The question is going to be is he anything more than a situational pass rusher next year?  He was listed at 235, and there's been rumblings he's dipped under 230.  That's closer to off-ball LB than it is EDGE.  That's a MAJOR red flag.

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On 2/3/2019 at 12:35 PM, rcon14 said:

Agreed on all accounts here. Polite and Burns are likely to be top 15 guys post-combine and above Ferrell and Sweat. Bosa is going to be EDGE1, Allen probably EDGE2, but Polite and Burns will be EDGE3/4

Not sure I agree with you on this one.  Bosa and Allen are EDGE1 and EDGE2 respectively.  Think that next tier depends on whose drafting.  3-4 teams are probably going to prefer Polite and Burns, where 43 teams are probably going to prefer Ferrell and Sweat. 

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6 hours ago, rcon14 said:

How good does a TE have to be at 12 to be good value? All-Pro? Is anything less than All-Pro a +value outcome for a TE at 12. Probably not? So you pretty much have to be sure that Hock is going to be an All-Pro to take him at 12. I love Hock; I think he's a phenomenal TE prospect. I don't think you can really take a TE that early. The positional value just isn't there.

I feel pretty damn confident that a TE won't be in the mix for our pick at 12.  Since 2000, there have been 7 TEs (Bubba Franks, Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow, Vernon Davis, Brandon Pettigrew, Eric Ebron, and O.J. Howard).  Of those 7, only Pettigrew and Howard weren't top 15 picks.  I can't find numbers for Shockey and Franks, but the TEs drafted in the top 15 were 250+ and ran a 4.6 forty or better.

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46 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

The question is going to be is he anything more than a situational pass rusher next year?  He was listed at 235, and there's been rumblings he's dipped under 230.  That's closer to off-ball LB than it is EDGE.  That's a MAJOR red flag.

It's going to be VERY important to density-adjust his combine numbers. They're going to be great in raw totals, but we have to account for whatever his height/weight is at the time.

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Just now, rcon14 said:

It's going to be VERY important to density-adjust his combine numbers. They're going to be great in raw totals, but we have to account for whatever his height/weight is at the time.

Absolutely.  He's just looking a LOT like Leonard Floyd right now.  You love the twitchiness, but he's going to get man handled in the run game.  And the second an OT gets their hands locked on him, he's done.

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