2019 Draft Discussion

[Golfman]

Nobody is ever going to be Gronk! Need to keep that in perspective. TE is valued a lot by many teams and teams tend to make a lot of mistakes taking TE's too early. I'd love to get Hock in this draft, but 12 is too rich for my blood. If he's our top guy on board when we're on the clock at 12, trade down. 

[Arthur Penske]

I know these aren’t always important but I do find them interesting. Plus I’d love to go WR at 30 just for @Outpost31

 

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/01/packers-were-in-attendance-for-nkeal-harrys-big-day-vs-usc/

[rcon14]

11 hours ago, DWhitehurst said:

Fwiw, from watching tape, I really am hesitant on Polite. While he has a great motor, he's short-armed, light/small frame, gets rag-dolled quite a bit, think he will be a liability in run support. I like Burns alot more from what I see on tape. 

However, a guy I'll throw out there that really stands out to me as a player to consider at pick 12 is TE Hockenson from Iowa. That might seem high to you, a reach, but just watch his tape sometime. Does it all. 

How good does a TE have to be at 12 to be good value? All-Pro? Is anything less than All-Pro a +value outcome for a TE at 12. Probably not? So you pretty much have to be sure that Hock is going to be an All-Pro to take him at 12. I love Hock; I think he's a phenomenal TE prospect. I don't think you can really take a TE that early. The positional value just isn't there.

[vegas492]

On 1/31/2019 at 8:45 PM, ChaRisMa said:

So I’ve watched all I’m going to watch of Jachai Polite. Georgia. Vandy. LSU. Alabama. Michigan. Tennessee.

Strengths: Constantly has his head up looking for the ball. Plays the read option correctly, consistently. Knows which gap is the right one to attack. Keeps contain appropriately. Gets his hands in pass lanes when beaten. Burst is capable of getting around Tackles with bad movement skill. Knows how to slash at QBs as he runs his arch, resulting in fumbles. Dips his shoulder effectively. Will flash a spin move as a counter. Smart player.

Weaknesses: Lack of size frequently shows up. He’s pushed back off the snap fairly often in run situations. Once blocked, stays blocked too often in pass rush rather than going to a counter move. Can go quiet for long periods. Not someone you count on for hussle. Short sighted in coverage.

Overall, I’m not really understanding why anyone would consider Polite at 12th overall. I don’t see a player who’s going to be regularly effective in pass rush at the NFL level. I see a guy with a burst that can beat lesser athletes and eyes to follow the ball but otherwise lacks a clear trait that will lead to success in the NFL. Power is average. Speed is above average. CoD is above average. Doesn’t lumber in coverage but QBs can move him where they want with their eyes. Combine numbers will decide whether he falls in the category of 2nd or 3rd round for me, as Polite’s ceiling is a 2nd fiddle pass rusher but his floor is a bust for me.

 

On 2/1/2019 at 9:55 PM, gopackgo27 said:

Not a horrible take overall but that part I definitely disagree with. He plays his butt off.

Agree, not a horrible take.

But I'll add my thoughts.  EDGE kids get drafted on their athletic ability...as well as their production.  He has the production and the ability?  Well....I look for "elite" traits.  Polite has elite acceleration and agility.  Two traits.  I think that gets him drafted high.

I look at him favorably compared to Leonard Floyd, who has carved out a nice career for himself so far.

I think teams will look at those traits and see if it fits what they want to do.  That being said, I'm unsure if that is what GB wants from an EDGE.  

I really want to see his Combine.  Arm length, height.  I'm hoping he shows good power, because I don't think his arms are going to be overly long.

Right now I see him as a pure pass rush specialist, not an all around EDGE.  I liked Landry last year and he has some of that initial quickness/bend in him.  Though I thought Landry's bend was better.  And that only got Landry into the second round.

[CWood21]

On 1/31/2019 at 5:50 PM, JBURGE said:

you don't like reading 4 new mock threads a day that are different by 1 or 2 players? 

I mean, what do you expect?  We've talked about the same dozen or so prospects that are probably going to be in play for the Packers at 12.  The variation is going to come in the middle rounds (Round 2-4).

[Isherwood]

48 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

I know these aren’t always important but I do find them interesting. Plus I’d love to go WR at 30 just for @Outpost31

 

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/01/packers-were-in-attendance-for-nkeal-harrys-big-day-vs-usc/

I don't think N'Keal Harry is a good fit for our team, unless we think Rodgers is going to start throwing a lot more 50:50 balls. To my amateur eyes, Harry isn't going to get separation against NFL corners. 

[MacReady]

Just now, Arthur Penske said:

I know these aren’t always important but I do find them interesting. Plus I’d love to go WR at 30 just for @Outpost31

 

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/01/packers-were-in-attendance-for-nkeal-harrys-big-day-vs-usc/

I've already said a WR at 30 wouldn't make me angry.  Like a billion times.  I think it would be a mistake considering the talent everyone here is neglecting (that LaFleur certainly isn't neglecting), but I have no problem in principal with a WR at 30th overall if they're the BVA. 

[Arthur Penske]

2 minutes ago, Isherwood said:

I don't think N'Keal Harry is a good fit for our team, unless we think Rodgers is going to start throwing a lot more 50:50 balls. To my amateur eyes, Harry isn't going to get separation against NFL corners. 

We’re my thoughts too but I’ve been wrong about players many times before

[vegas492]

On 2/2/2019 at 4:58 AM, Bang! said:

In reviewing various draft analysis of EDGE rushers projected to go in the 1st Round, I've seen some experts say that Clelin Ferrell is strictly a 4-3 DE. Is this an accurate assessment of the type of player he is? If he were to fall to 12, is he someone that we consider passing on because of the limitations he has on the EDGE or can he succeed without having his hand in the dirt?  Given the questions surrounding Ferrell and Polite, does Brian Burns become the better prospect given our defensive scheme? I tend to see Burns fall into the next tier of EDGE rushers down when compared with Ferrell, Polite, and even Sweat but in comparing notes its hard to find something not to like with Burns. Thoughts?

I dig Ferrell, like big time.

But he's a 4-3 defensive end.  Power and hands is his game.  Enough speed, enough bend, but his strength is power and hands.  Physical.

That physical part is why I think he would be good in GB.  I think that is what is wanted at EDGE.

Burns....why, oh why does he have to wear #99?  It just screams out Reynolds at me.  But...after that is gone, he is a different type.  Longer, leaner, quicker.  I like Burns, but he needs to fill out to become a real EDGE.  And on that frame?  I can see it happening.  In 2 years, he could be the steal of that EDGE class....if he develops that frame.

[rcon14]

Just now, vegas492 said:

I dig Ferrell, like big time.

But he's a 4-3 defensive end.  Power and hands is his game.  Enough speed, enough bend, but his strength is power and hands.  Physical.

That physical part is why I think he would be good in GB.  I think that is what is wanted at EDGE.

Burns....why, oh why does he have to wear #99?  It just screams out Reynolds at me.  But...after that is gone, he is a different type.  Longer, leaner, quicker.  I like Burns, but he needs to fill out to become a real EDGE.  And on that frame?  I can see it happening.  In 2 years, he could be the steal of that EDGE class....if he develops that frame.

2019 and we're still doing 4-3/3-4 things I see

[vegas492]

5 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

2019 and we're still doing 4-3/3-4 things I see

Yup.  

Should I have said that he has more 4-3 Dend traits than a prototypical 3-4 EDGE?

Because that is what I meant.  Ferrell is going to be a little heavier than the ideal 3-4 EDGE.  He's going to be more powerful.  His game is power, not speed and quickness.

I'm not saying that his traits wouldn't be useful to GB...I think they would be VERY useful.  

When I think of a 3-4 EDGE, I think of a kid that screams the corner for quick sacks, like Vonn Miller.

When I think of a 4-3 D-End, I think of more power with enough speed.  That's what I think Ferrell has.  And I would love to see it in Green and Gold.  He has that toughness that I covet.  He will get dirty.  I think that on every snap, his guy will know he's been in a fight.  I think GB could use more of that.

[rcon14]

Just now, vegas492 said:

Yup.  

Should I have said that he has more 4-3 Dend traits than a prototypical 3-4 EDGE?

Because that is what I meant.  Ferrell is going to be a little heavier than the ideal 3-4 EDGE.  He's going to be more powerful.  His game is power, not speed and quickness.

I'm not saying that his traits wouldn't be useful to GB...I think they would be VERY useful.  

When I think of a 3-4 EDGE, I think of a kid that screams the corner for quick sacks, like Vonn Miller.

When I think of a 4-3 D-End, I think of more power with enough speed.  That's what I think Ferrell has.  And I would love to see it in Green and Gold.  He has that toughness that I covet.  He will get dirty.  I think that on every snap, his guy will know he's been in a fight.  I think GB could use more of that.

So we should start with the idea that 3-4/4-3 are mostly dead. The NFL is largely a nickel-base league. When teams are in nickel, regardless of whether they are base 4-3/3-4, they're largely running the same fronts out of nickel. There are different variations they can use in terms of alignments, but if we just stick to the standard front. There is no difference between an EDGE at nickel in a 4-3 or 3-4. You can also make a pretty compelling argument that at least one of the EDGE in a 4-3 (typically the RE because that's the weak-side more often than not) plays a similar role to the 3-4 EDGE.

So what you're saying here, I think, is that Ferrell may fit better as a strong-side EDGE rather than a weak-side EDGE. I want to try and eliminate any 4-3/3-4 talk in this forum this off-season, since that discussion is about a decade out-of-date. Also, considering the NFL's passing proclivity, I'm not sure we should even be overly concerned with the strong/weak designations anymore. You are obviously going to ask Polite and Ferrell to do different things because they have different skillsets, but I'm not sure any defensive scheme is so rigid that it couldn't accommodate either. I personally don't think my eval of them in GB is going to stick on scheme because either can be useful.

[CWood21]

On 2/2/2019 at 4:58 AM, Bang! said:

In reviewing various draft analysis of EDGE rushers projected to go in the 1st Round, I've seen some experts say that Clelin Ferrell is strictly a 4-3 DE. Is this an accurate assessment of the type of player he is? If he were to fall to 12, is he someone that we consider passing on because of the limitations he has on the EDGE or can he succeed without having his hand in the dirt?  Given the questions surrounding Ferrell and Polite, does Brian Burns become the better prospect given our defensive scheme? I tend to see Burns fall into the next tier of EDGE rushers down when compared with Ferrell, Polite, and even Sweat but in comparing notes its hard to find something not to like with Burns. Thoughts?

It's kind of an archaic concept, but he's definitely the least "twitchy" in terms of pass rushers.  He's kinda like the opposite of Polite.  He's going to have his issues dropping his hips when in coverage, but a guy like Polite is going to have a harder time anchoring against the run.

[jleisher]

1 hour ago, Arthur Penske said:

We’re my thoughts too but I’ve been wrong about players many times before

Haven't we all???? 

[vegas492]

52 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

So we should start with the idea that 3-4/4-3 are mostly dead. The NFL is largely a nickel-base league. When teams are in nickel, regardless of whether they are base 4-3/3-4, they're largely running the same fronts out of nickel. There are different variations they can use in terms of alignments, but if we just stick to the standard front. There is no difference between an EDGE at nickel in a 4-3 or 3-4. You can also make a pretty compelling argument that at least one of the EDGE in a 4-3 (typically the RE because that's the weak-side more often than not) plays a similar role to the 3-4 EDGE.

So what you're saying here, I think, is that Ferrell may fit better as a strong-side EDGE rather than a weak-side EDGE. I want to try and eliminate any 4-3/3-4 talk in this forum this off-season, since that discussion is about a decade out-of-date. Also, considering the NFL's passing proclivity, I'm not sure we should even be overly concerned with the strong/weak designations anymore. You are obviously going to ask Polite and Ferrell to do different things because they have different skillsets, but I'm not sure any defensive scheme is so rigid that it couldn't accommodate either. I personally don't think my eval of them in GB is going to stick on scheme because either can be useful.

You nailed it.  

My long story short about Ferrell is this....he's a lot more power and hands than speed and quickness.