2019 Draft Discussion

[ChaRisMa]

2 hours ago, deathstar said:

I'm not the one who did the initial scouting, I only commented that 2 plays aren't a big sample size, then watched 1 minute of a thing on youtube and showed what I saw. Maybe my expectations aren't realistic but I don't think it's as cut and dry as it's being made out to be.

I scouted him. I’ll answer some of these questions.

I said, “Not someone you count on for hussle.”. 

It’s a bad take. These guys have shown good evidence to the contrary. That’s why I post this crap. I don’t go and read up on players before I watch. I’m glad to be wrong when I haven’t given them enough credit. Good. I can adjust myself and my position on Polite. Those gifs indeed show him playing his job properly. 

 

Now everyone argue about my Ferrell notes. This forums better when there are disagreements and people are being adults about it. It’s draft season. Enjoy. 

[packfanfb]

7 hours ago, Bang! said:

In reviewing various draft analysis of EDGE rushers projected to go in the 1st Round, I've seen some experts say that Clelin Ferrell is strictly a 4-3 DE. Is this an accurate assessment of the type of player he is? If he were to fall to 12, is he someone that we consider passing on because of the limitations he has on the EDGE or can he succeed without having his hand in the dirt?  Given the questions surrounding Ferrell and Polite, does Brian Burns become the better prospect given our defensive scheme? I tend to see Burns fall into the next tier of EDGE rushers down when compared with Ferrell, Polite, and even Sweat but in comparing notes its hard to find something not to like with Burns. Thoughts?

Burns is right there with those guys. In fact, post-combine I think it's a safe bet Burns will quickly start to show up in the top 15 in mocks on a consistent basis. I think there's a real chance he's not even there at 12. 

Personally I'd take Burns right now over Ferrell and Sweat because the latter two don't have the flexibility/bend I want at EDGE. Polite and Burns are 1a and 1b for me, but you can easily argue that Burns comes with more upside because of his frame and ability to add some mass.

[Kepler]

3 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

I scouted him. I’ll answer some of these questions.

I said, “Not someone you count on for hussle.”. 

It’s a bad take. These guys have shown good evidence to the contrary. That’s why I post this crap. I don’t go and read up on players before I watch. I’m glad to be wrong when I haven’t given them enough credit. Good. I can adjust myself and my position on Polite. Those gifs indeed show him playing his job properly. 

 

Now everyone argue about my Ferrell notes. This forums better when there are disagreements and people are being adults about it. It’s draft season. Enjoy. 

Kudos and a football to you sir

[gopackgo27]

6 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

I scouted him. I’ll answer some of these questions.

I said, “Not someone you count on for hussle.”. 

It’s a bad take. These guys have shown good evidence to the contrary. That’s why I post this crap. I don’t go and read up on players before I watch. I’m glad to be wrong when I haven’t given them enough credit. Good. I can adjust myself and my position on Polite. Those gifs indeed show him playing his job properly. 

 

Now everyone argue about my Ferrell notes. This forums better when there are disagreements and people are being adults about it. It’s draft season. Enjoy. 

Yep, ain't nothing wrong w civilized disagreement. Fist pound.

[Packer_ESP]

22 hours ago, deathstar said:

I'm not the one who did the initial scouting, I only commented that 2 plays aren't a big sample size, then watched 1 minute of a thing on youtube and showed what I saw. Maybe my expectations aren't realistic but I don't think it's as cut and dry as it's being made out to be.

I don't have a horse in this race but I'd like to point that your sample size (the first minute of a game) isn't that extensive either. In fact, you also posted exactly two plays.

[deathstar]

2 hours ago, Packer_ESP said:

I don't have a horse in this race but I'd like to point that your sample size (the first minute of a game) isn't that extensive either. In fact, you also posted exactly two plays.

Good observation.

[rcon14]

23 hours ago, packfanfb said:

Burns is right there with those guys. In fact, post-combine I think it's a safe bet Burns will quickly start to show up in the top 15 in mocks on a consistent basis. I think there's a real chance he's not even there at 12. 

Personally I'd take Burns right now over Ferrell and Sweat because the latter two don't have the flexibility/bend I want at EDGE. Polite and Burns are 1a and 1b for me, but you can easily argue that Burns comes with more upside because of his frame and ability to add some mass.

Agreed on all accounts here. Polite and Burns are likely to be top 15 guys post-combine and above Ferrell and Sweat. Bosa is going to be EDGE1, Allen probably EDGE2, but Polite and Burns will be EDGE3/4

[gopackgo27]

Gotta admit, I gave Burns the Jamaal Reynolds treatment at first but watching more of him, I'm all in. Love Polite & Burns, would be surprised if we don't come away with one of those guys. Both guys only 20 years old right now as well, love that.

[MacReady]

I think what people are forgetting is that offense is so hot right now.  It might look like a weak QB class, and it might look like a weak WR/RB/OL class, but that has never stopped teams from drafting offense high. 

7/11 last year - offense.
7/11 2017 - offense.
5/11 2016 - offense
7/11 2015 - offense
7/11 2014 - offense
7/11 2013 - offense
6/11 2012 - offense
5/11 2011 - offense
5/11 2010 - offense
7/11 2009 - offense

You'd have to go back to 2008 when 5 of the first 11 players drafted weren't on offense.  7 out of the last ten years, the majority has been offense. 

Cardinals have an abysmal offense and who they hope is their franchise QB.  They are not a defense guarantee.
49ers suffered a season-ending injury to Garroppolo and have little talent on offense.  They are not a defense guarantee.
The Jets are in the exact same situation as the Cardinals.  They are not a defensive guarantee.
The Raiders are probably a lock for defense.
The Buccaneers aren't a guarantee either.
The Giants could go QB/OL
The Jaguars are almost certainly going offense.
The Lions are probably going defense.
The Bills are in a similar situation as the Cardinals/Jets with a dreadful OL.  I'd put money on them going offense.
The Broncos are almost certainly going offense.  They've got their franchise pass rushers and are certainly not going EDGE. 
The Bengals are going to Bengal and I'd put them as a lock for drafting a QB/RB/WR/TE/OL. 

Potential Top 11 offensive players:

Kyler Murray
Jonah Williams
Dwayne Haskins
Will Grier
Drew Lock
Marquise Brown
Greg Little
AJ Brown
Cody Ford (hopefully he shoots up like Nelson did last year)
Noah Fant
Jawaan Taylor
Dalton Risner
Yodney Cajuste
Irv Smith Jr

I'd be willing to be right now, just taking a quick look through these players, that 5 of them are drafted. 

That guarantees us one of:

Bosa, Josh Allen, Quinnen Williams, Greedy Williams, Rashan Gary, Ed Oliver, Clelin Ferrel, Jachai Polite. 

We are guaranteed to be able to draft one of those players because I guarantee at least 3 of the first 11 are offense. 

Any single one of those players I'm happy with at 12. 

[FinneasGage]

i feel like jachai is gonna fall to 30 and we're still gonna pass on him and the board's gonna erupt 

[packfanfb]

1 minute ago, FinneasGage said:

i feel like jachai is gonna fall to 30 and we're still gonna pass on him and the board's gonna erupt 

This year's Harold Landry?

[Slinky]

Huge 'if'. But if Ferrell is still on the board at#12, he's our pick. Doesn't even matter who else is available. 

[Packerraymond]

9 hours ago, packfanfb said:

This year's Harold Landry?

Landry fell because of his Combine medical. There will certainly be a player or 2 that has the same fall there is every year, but we won't know until draft night.

[DWhitehurst]

Fwiw, from watching tape, I really am hesitant on Polite. While he has a great motor, he's short-armed, light/small frame, gets rag-dolled quite a bit, think he will be a liability in run support. I like Burns alot more from what I see on tape. 

However, a guy I'll throw out there that really stands out to me as a player to consider at pick 12 is TE Hockenson from Iowa. That might seem high to you, a reach, but just watch his tape sometime. Does it all. 

[HighCalebR]

1 hour ago, DWhitehurst said:

Fwiw, from watching tape, I really am hesitant on Polite. While he has a great motor, he's short-armed, light/small frame, gets rag-dolled quite a bit, think he will be a liability in run support. I like Burns alot more from what I see on tape. 

However, a guy I'll throw out there that really stands out to me as a player to consider at pick 12 is TE Hockenson from Iowa. That might seem high to you, a reach, but just watch his tape sometime. Does it all. 

#12 of the second round maybe. Guys gonna be lucky to come in at 250. I know we're all in love with the Kittle types, but there's a reason he went where he did. I believe he can play the h-back to slot WR spots but I don't believe that's worth a mid/early 1st. Hock is a little better/more established than Kittle but guys never gonna be Gronk. He'll always have trouble with the hog ends. His home is 2nd/3rd round IMO. Being able to play the h-back/fullback spot doesnt bring huge value. Finding a big slot guy with decent hands isnt the toughest thing. Hes a try hard at blocking but he's not a naturally huge guy. 

Hock sticks out as a high floor lower ceiling type of guy to me. If you take him around the spot he should be drafted you'll look smart but if you reach you'll be a little disappointed.

I'm also a guy on the internet so who knows.