Our biggest need in 2019-Offensive Tackle

[HTTRDynasty]

58 minutes ago, Woz said:

No, he benefited from those guys YAC. Remember, Hill and Wilson were also on the Chiefs' roster in 2016.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/ (only has data for 2016, 2017, and 2018, but let's take a look); definitions of these stats: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/glossary

• 2016 (out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks)
  • Time to Throw: 2.38 seconds (tied for 38th)
  • Average Completed Air Yards: 5.0 yards (tied for 37th)
  • Average Intended Air Yards: 7.0 yards (38th)
  • Aggressiveness Percentage: 16.0% (33rd)
  • Longest Completed Air Distance: 52.1 yards (29th)
  • Air Yards To The Sticks: -1.7 yards (37th)
  • Actual Completion Percentage: 67.1% (tied for 6th)
  • Expected Completion Percentage: 67.5% (1st)
     
• 2017 (out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks)
  • Time to Throw: 2.67 seconds (24th)
  • Average Completed Air Yards: 5.7 yards (24th)
  • Average Intended Air Yards: 7.4 yards (tied for 24th)
  • Aggressiveness Percentage: 12.7% (tied for 40th)
  • Longest Completed Air Distance: 52.4 yards (tied for 23rd)
  • Air Yards To The Sticks: -1.4 yards (tied for 23rd)
  • Actual Completion Percentage: 67.5% (3rd)
  • Expected Completion Percentage: 67.5% (3rd)
    
    Ah HA! you say. Look at the extra time he had to throw!
    Be careful what you wish for, I say.
     
• 2018 to date (out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks)
  • Time to throw: 2.77 seconds (13th)
  • Average Completed Air Yards: 5.6 yards (tied for 21st)
  • Average Intended Air Yards: 7.9 yards (tied for 20th)
  • Aggressiveness Percentage: 17.3% (tied for 13th)
  • Longest Completed Air Distance: 48.9 yards (25th)
  • Air Yards To The Sticks: -1.2 yards (tied for 24th)
  • Actual Completion Percentage: 64.1% (tied for 23rd)
  • Expected Completion Percentage: 63.3% (tied for 27th)

 

EDIT: Some other reads, a stat that is named after Alex Smith:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2016/alex-season-review  [2015 season]
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/alex-season-review  [2016 season]
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/2017-alex-early-results [early part of 2017 season]
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/2017-alex-midseason-report [mid 2017 season]
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2018/alex-2017-season-review [2017 season]
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2018/2018-alex-early-results [early 2018 ... the perception comment at the end of the article might be particularly apt]

Those stats don't really take away from my point:

• Smith attempted 4.2 deep passes per game last year (10th most among qualifying QBs).  He also "ranked first in long-ball passer rating, deep completion rate and percentage of overall yards coming on deep throws".  
  • "Next Gen Stats defines a "deep pass" as a throw that traveled 20-plus air yards."  So while maybe Smith had low overall average intended or completed air yards due to a lack of 60 yard bombs down the field, he did have a lot of attempts past 20 yards and had the highest percentage of his overall yards come from deep throws in the league.  So yes, as I said, he has shown that he was willing to push the ball downfield with dynamic players like Hill and Wilson.  He definitely didn't show the willingness prior to last year, I concede that, but he has shown the willingness.
• When looking at your stats, look at the players Smith is ahead of in intended air yards this season: Tom Brady, Big Ben, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Kirk Cousins.  Out of all the stats you posted, intended air yards is the most relevant here, so I guess we should say Smith has shown more of a willingness to sling it downfield this year than all those names I listed?

[turtle28]

On 11/12/2018 at 7:06 PM, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Those stats don't really take away from my point:

• Smith attempted 4.2 deep passes per game last year (10th most among qualifying QBs).  He also "ranked first in long-ball passer rating, deep completion rate and percentage of overall yards coming on deep throws".  
  • "Next Gen Stats defines a "deep pass" as a throw that traveled 20-plus air yards."  So while maybe Smith had low overall average intended or completed air yards due to a lack of 60 yard bombs down the field, he did have a lot of attempts past 20 yards and had the highest percentage of his overall yards come from deep throws in the league.  So yes, as I said, he has shown that he was willing to push the ball downfield with dynamic players like Hill and Wilson.  He definitely didn't show the willingness prior to last year, I concede that, but he has shown the willingness.
• When looking at your stats, look at the players Smith is ahead of in intended air yards this season: Tom Brady, Big Ben, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Kirk Cousins.  Out of all the stats you posted, intended air yards is the most relevant here, so I guess we should say Smith has shown more of a willingness to sling it downfield this year than all those names I listed?

I mean can I get a mic drop?

I’ve said it all year that Alex does attempt passes downfield, they just haven’t always been completed and sometimes that’s on him but it’s not always on him. Doctson has dropped what 4 or 5 passes this year? PRich dropped a few and had a probable 77-yd TD vs  Arizona nullified bc the DB grabbed him so he couldn’t catch the ball. Reed has dropped a few and quit on a route vs GB bc he was looking for a flag while Haha acted like the receiver on the play and intercepted it. VD has dropped a few, Crowder too and we’ve had a lot of big plays negated bc of penalties. Those penalties are drive killers and I bet if you added up those yards to Alex’s stats that Receivers dropped or had called back bc of a hold that Alex would have 500 more yards receiving and 3-5 more passing TDs.

[Slateman]

3 hours ago, turtle28 said:

I mean can I get a mic drop?

I’ve said it all year that Alex does attempt passes downfield, they just haven’t always been completed and sometimes that’s on him but it’s not always on him. Doctson has dropped what 4 or 5 passes this year? PRich dropped a few and had a probable 77-yd TD VD Arizona nullified bc the DB grabbed him so he couldn’t catch the ball. Reed has dropped a few and quit on a route vs GB bc he was looking for a flag while Haha acted like the receiver on the play and intercepted it. VD has dropped a few, Crowder too and we’ve had a lot of big plays negated bc of penalties. Those penalties are drive killers and I bet if you added up those yards to Alex’s stats that Receivers dropped or had called back bc of a hold that Alex would have 500 more yards receiving and 3-5 more passing TDs.

If we're counting drops, do we go ahead and count dropped interceptions? I can think of four off the top of my head.

 

So basically, if we're counting drops, then Alex Smith has fewer TDs, fewer yards, and more interceptions than our previous QB that we supposedly couldn't afford.

[MikeT14]

The one thing definitely dropping is Alex Smith's consecutive best deep ball passer title. One. 

[turtle28]

15 hours ago, Slateman said:

If we're counting drops, do we go ahead and count dropped interceptions? I can think of four off the top of my head.

 

So basically, if we're counting drops, then Alex Smith has fewer TDs, fewer yards, and more interceptions than our previous QB that we supposedly couldn't afford.

You can do what ever fantasy you want.

The reality is that at this point last year Kirk’s stats weren’t that much better than Alex’s current stats and Alex has 5 less turnovers through 9 games.

• Kirk 2017 through 9 games:

67%, 2474 yds, 14 TDs, 5 ints & 4 fumbles lost

• Alex Smith through 9 games:

64%, 2045 yds, 10 TDs, 3 ints & 1 fumble lost

Basically that’s the difference between the two, it’s 45 yards a game and .5 TDs a game. Kirk was in year 4 of Gruden’s offense in 2017, Alex is only in year 1. 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

It's sort of crazy how much better Nsheke is on the left side compared to the right.

 

[Woz]

On 11/12/2018 at 7:06 PM, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Smith attempted 4.2 deep passes per game last year (10th most among qualifying QBs).  He also "ranked first in long-ball passer rating, deep completion rate and percentage of overall yards coming on deep throws".  

Let's include the entire section on Alex Smith there and break it down point by point:

Quote

One of the more shocking developments of the 2017 season was the statistical heights Alex Smith, regarded as a mere game manager for years, reached as a passer for the Chiefs. It was a year on par with Matt Ryan's 2016 MVP season from an efficiency standpoint. His most notable improvement came as a downfield passer. Smith attempted 4.2 deep passes per game (10th-most among qualifying quarterbacks) this past season to just 2.9 the year prior. His deep-passing effectiveness was not just markedly better, it was at league-best levels, as he ranked first in long-ball passer rating, deep completion rate and percentage of overall yards coming on deep throws. Smith didn't rank higher than 20th in any of those categories in 2016. The influence of having the NFL's best deep threat as your No. 1 wideout in Tyreek Hill was real and noticeable. Smith will now take his talents to Washington in an effort to show 2017 was the start of a new trend in his career, not just a glaring outlier.

1. "One of the more shocking developments of the 2017 season was the statistical heights Alex Smith, regarded as a mere game manager for years, reached as a passer for the Chiefs."
   
   Right off the bat, the writer describes what Alex Smith has been considered over his entire career and how unlike Alex Smith Alex Smith was. This should be a warning sign to anyone that what follows may not be repeatable.
    
2. "It was a year on par with Matt Ryan's 2016 MVP season from an efficiency standpoint."
   
   That's impressive. Funny thing though, he didn't get any MVP votes. Maybe the votes were more focused on Brady, Gurley, and Wentz. Or maybe they knew something was amiss.
    
3. "His most notable improvement came as a downfield passer. Smith attempted 4.2 deep passes per game (10th-most among qualifying quarterbacks) this past season [compared] to just 2.9 the year prior."
   
   Huh, would you look at that? It's like it was a surprise that he was going downfield more often last year. I wonder why that is?
    
4. "His deep-passing effectiveness was not just markedly better, it was at league-best levels, as he ranked first in long-ball passer rating, deep completion rate and percentage of overall yards coming on deep throws. Smith didn't rank higher than 20th in any of those categories in 2016."
   
   So, he went from at best 20th in all of those categories to 1st or 2nd. That was surely repeatable.
    
5. "The influence of having the NFL's best deep threat as your No. 1 wideout in Tyreek Hill was real and noticeable."
   
   More on this in a bit.
    
6. "Smith will now take his talents to Washington in an effort to show 2017 was the start of a new trend in his career, not just a glaring outlier."
   
   Nine games in, it's looking like a glaring outlier. Kind of like how some of us predicted.

 

 

But your assertion is that if we got Tyreek Hill (or his clone) that Alex Smith would return to his 2017 form. The first problem with that theory is that adding the "clone of Hill" on an offense with Gruden as head coach would be as effective as it was for Andy Reid. Other problems include the fact that finding a guy like Hill is not the easiest thing in the world. However, all of that hides the fact that unless the Redskins find a Hill clone and said clone can get Smith to trust him, it won't matter because he won't go downfield.

[HTTRDynasty]

38 minutes ago, Woz said:

Let's include the entire section on Alex Smith there and break it down point by point:

Why? 

Like I said, Smith has shown the willingness to do that over a full season when he has talent capable of creating separation downfield.  I've already noted that he hadn't done it prior to last season.  All I said was that he showed a willingness to do it that I think we can help coax out of him again if we get a guy who can consistently create separation downfield next season.

38 minutes ago, Woz said:

But your assertion is that if we got Tyreek Hill (or his clone) that Alex Smith would return to his 2017 form. The first problem with that theory is that adding the "clone of Hill" on an offense with Gruden as head coach would be as effective as it was for Andy Reid. Other problems include the fact that finding a guy like Hill is not the easiest thing in the world. However, all of that hides the fact that unless the Redskins find a Hill clone and said clone can get Smith to trust him, it won't matter because he won't go downfield.

Gruden has already shown that he knows how to use a deep threat to elevate an offense.  See: AJ Green and D Jax.  You would see less gadget plays than Reid, but I'm talking about shots downfield, not trick plays.

How many legitimate deep threats, that could consistently create separation downfield, has Smith had to throw to in his career?  Hill is the only established guy who comes to mind.  So constantly using his previous years as some kind of indictment on him needs to be put into context.  It's interesting that you're so quick to write off what drafting a deep threat can do for this team when you see the difference Cooks has made to the Rams offense, which is so similar to ours.  There is a reason McVay aggressively went after Cooks this off-season.  He knows the value of a legitimate deep threat in the WCO.  The lack of legit deep threat was actually my primary concern with the Rams offense this year before they acquired Cooks, which is something I expressed to some Rams fans on this forum earlier this year, and funnily enough, the trade was made for Cooks just a few days later.

It's strange that you say "he won't go downfield" and completely ignore that list of QBs who Smith ranks ahead of in intended air yards this season.  There are a lot of guys considered top QBs on that list, and most of those guys have established deep threats and a better overall WR corps, yet Smith ranks ahead of them in average intended air yards.  I wonder how that can be if, in fact, "he won't go downfield"?   

While Smith isn't going downfield as much as he did last season, it's unfair to say "he won't go downfield", especially given his WR corps.  You know who the top 5 guys are in average intended air yards this year?  Winston, Fitzpatrick, Tyrod, Josh Allen, and Trubisky.  I know you feel Smith isn't throwing downfield enough for you, so should he strive to be more like those guys?

[Woz]

Just now, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

How many legitimate deep threats, that could consistently create separation downfield, has Smith had to throw to in his career?  Hill is the only established guy who comes to mind.  So constantly using his previous years as some kind of indictment on him needs to be put into context.  It's interesting that you're so quick to write off what drafting a deep threat can do for this team when you see the difference Cooks has made to the Rams offense, which is so similar to ours.  There is a reason McVay aggressively went after Cooks this off-season.  He knows the value of a legitimate deep threat in the WCO.  The lack of legit deep threat was actually my primary concern with the Rams offense this year before they acquired Cooks, which is something I expressed to some Rams fans on this forum earlier this year, and funnily enough, the trade was made for Cooks just a few days later.

It's strange that you say "he won't go downfield" and completely ignore that list of QBs who Smith ranks ahead of in intended air yards this season.  There are a lot of guys considered top QBs on that list, and most of those guys have established deep threats and a better overall WR corps, yet Smith ranks ahead of them in average intended air yards.  I wonder how that can be if, in fact, "he won't go downfield"?   You know who the top 5 guys are in average intended air yards this year?  Winston, Fitzpatrick, Tyrod, Josh Allen, and Trubisky.  I know you feel Smith isn't throwing downfield enough for you, so should he strive to be more like those guys?

I was actually writing up a second post regarding IAY, saying I had meant to address it. I scrapped it because I wanted to reply to this (it was too stat heavy and losing coherency).

1. As I said, "legitimate deep threats[] that could consistently create separation downfield" are not guys who grow on trees. Finding them is a challenge for the entire NFL. To say, "well if we got him a clone of Tyreek Hill, he'll recreate his 2017 performance" overlooks the difficulty in finding that clone.
2. IAY is perhaps not the best metric from that page. If you throw a 50 yard Hail Mary that falls to the turf, your IAY goes up but it doesn't really help the team. AYD (difference between average completed air yards (CAY) and IAY) might be a bit more useful. There, Smith ranks 23rd at -2.3 yards. However, yes, he is still ahead of Stafford (-2.4) and Roethlisberger (-3.0 (?!)) but it isn't as impressive. Josh Allen is the worst at -4.6 AYD out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks.
3. Of the five guys who lead in IAY, four have better CAY than Smith. Again, only Allen (5.2) has less CAY. Tyrod has an atrocious completion percentage (49.4%) so I guess when he hits, he hits big, but there's a lot of misses there. Winston, Fitzpatrick or Trubisky? I'll take those guys over Smith, yes.
4. Most importantly, while having Hill would be great to have, we don't have him. We cannot wave a magic wand and make him appear. There's small chance that such a guy (outside of maybe DeSean Jackson) becomes available in free agency and the draft is major gamble. As such, this offense is going to be dink and dunk. Smith has and will likely continue to revert to who he has been for most of his career: an overly cautious game manager. That's fine if the Redskins can get a lead early and grind other teams. It will not work (and has shown not to work) if they get behind by even a single touchdown early in the game.

 

[Woz]

16 hours ago, turtle28 said:

You can do what ever fantasy you want.

The reality is that at this point last year Kirk’s stats weren’t that much better than Alex’s current stats and Alex has 5 less turnovers through 9 games.

• Kirk 2017 through 9 games:

67%, 2474 yds, 14 TDs, 5 ints & 4 fumbles lost

• Alex Smith through 9 games:

64%, 2045 yds, 10 TDs, 3 ints & 1 fumble lost

Basically that’s the difference between the two, it’s 45 yards a game and .5 TDs a game. Kirk was in year 4 of Gruden’s offense in 2017, Alex is only in year 1. 

 

And ignores that:

1. Adrian Peterson's equivalent last year was Samaje Perine, and
2. The shambles we find the offensive line in started in week 8 or 9 in 2018, and week 3 in 2017.

[HTTRDynasty]

4 minutes ago, Woz said:

1. As I said, "legitimate deep threats[] that could consistently create separation downfield" are not guys who grow on trees. Finding them is a challenge for the entire NFL. To say, "well if we got him a clone of Tyreek Hill, he'll recreate his 2017 performance" overlooks the difficulty in finding that clone.

 

 

I never said he had to be a clone of Hill.  I would take a guy like Will Fuller, Desean Jackson, Marquise Goodwin, JJ Nelson, Ted Ginn, OBJ, Julio, AJ Green, Brandin Cooks, Mike Wallace, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Sammy Watkins, John Ross, TY Hilton,  Josh Gordon, Taylor Gabriel, etc.  They're really not that hard to find.  Now, those guys all have varying levels of talent as complete WRs, but one thing they all have in common is blazing speed with the ability to consistently threaten you vertically, and there is a good mix of vets and young players in there.  We currently have no one like that on our roster.  The closest thing we had was Richardson, but A) he's out for the year and had been dealing with injuries all season and B) his game was never predicated on being a "blaze past you vertically" kind of guy.  That's why one of our highest priorities next off-season should be finding a guy with the speed to consistently threaten teams vertically.

 

4 minutes ago, Woz said:

2. IAY is perhaps not the best metric from that page. If you throw a 50 yard Hail Mary that falls to the turf, your IAY goes up but it doesn't really help the team. AYD (difference between average completed air yards (CAY) and IAY) might be a bit more useful. There, Smith ranks 23rd at -2.3 yards. However, yes, he is still ahead of Stafford (-2.4) and Roethlisberger (-3.0 (?!)) but it isn't as impressive. Josh Allen is the worst at -4.6 AYD out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks.

Please don't move the goal posts.  We were discussing Smith's willingness to throw the ball down the field.  IAY is far more relevant than CAY or AYD in that regard.  CAY by its very nature (and, by extension AYD) is reliant on both the QB and the WR's actions.  If the WR drops the pass, that lowers the QBs CAY, through no fault of his own, and while there have been several misses deep by Smith, there have also been several drops deep by his WRs.  

You know who else has a lower AYD than Smith?  The great Patrick Mahomes.  Who has threats all over the place to create separation deep for him, including two of the best in the league in Hill and Watkins.  Btw, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are only 0.1 yards ahead of Smith in this stat.  When including Big Ben, those are 4 of the top 5 QBs in the league that Smith is either ahead of, or hovering around, in AYD.

 

4 minutes ago, Woz said:

3. Of the five guys who lead in IAY, four have better CAY than Smith. Again, only Allen (5.2) has less CAY. Tyrod has an atrocious completion percentage (49.4%) so I guess when he hits, he hits big, but there's a lot of misses there. Winston, Fitzpatrick or Trubisky? I'll take those guys over Smith, yes.

I've already addressed the IAY vs. CAY argument (IAY is far more relevant for this discussion), but I really can't believe you would take Winston over Smith.  To each his own, I guess. :shrugs:

 

4 minutes ago, Woz said:

4. Most importantly, while having Hill would be great to have, we don't have him. We cannot wave a magic wand and make him appear. There's small chance that such a guy (outside of maybe DeSean Jackson) becomes available in free agency and the draft is major gamble. As such, this offense is going to be dink and dunk. Smith has and will likely continue to revert to who he has been for most of his career: an overly cautious game manager. That's fine if the Redskins can get a lead early and grind other teams. It will not work (and has shown not to work) if they get behind by even a single touchdown early in the game.

 

Please see my response to #1 above.  We don't need to have a clone of Hill.  I would take any of those names I mentioned above, any player similar to them currently playing in the league, or any similar player in the upcoming draft.  

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

I really can't believe you would take Winston over Smith.  To each his own, I guess. :shrugs:

Or Fitzpatrick. Good Lord. Taking this "wins are a team stat" argument to the extreme. In law school, I think they referred to that as reductio ad absurdum. 

This guy is 50-74 in his career as a starter. He's 2-4 this year as a starter. You literally just watched every play of him putting on a perfect demonstration of how a QB can make a lot of good throws and nifty plays and pile up a ton of yardage -- and yet still (very close to) single-handedly cost his team a game it absolutely should have won. Their kicker hurt them, maybe they had a drop or two (although I didn't consider any of the plays Spielman referred to as "drops" to be balls that absolutely should have been caught). But for the most part, it was Fitzpatrick doing Fitzpatrick things. Took points off the board with an INT in the red zone, took points off the board with a fumble on goal-to-go, put points on the board for us with an INT in our territory, gave up a first down inside the 10 by running backwards to try to make a bigger play, gave up a FG attempt by trying (and failing at) an improvised many-yard lateral and getting a penalty.

He threw for 400 yards. With Mike Evans and a slew of other very capable receivers. Neat. If they determined the winner based on which team gained more yards, he'd have been the champ. But it comes down to points, and he individually made bonehead plays that cost them probably about 15ish points. Points, and scoring opportunities, are not easy to come by in the NFL. You can't afford to gift-wrap them for the opposition, or to snuff out your own. That's why he always loses more than he "should." And it's why Alex Smith wins more than he "should."  

[Woz]

5 hours ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

I never said he had to be a clone of Hill.  I would take a guy like Will Fuller, Desean Jackson, Marquise Goodwin, JJ Nelson, Ted Ginn, OBJ, Julio, AJ Green, Brandin Cooks, Mike Wallace, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Sammy Watkins, John Ross, TY Hilton,  Josh Gordon, Taylor Gabriel, etc.  They're really not that hard to find.  Now, those guys all have varying levels of talent as complete WRs, but one thing they all have in common is blazing speed with the ability to consistently threaten you vertically, and there is a good mix of vets and young players in there.  We currently have no one like that on our roster. 

I will agree we have no one like those guys on the roster. And I will further agree those guys have varying levels of talent as complete WRs. For instance, I don't believe adding Wallace or Gabriel here would help; there's also some injury concerns with guys like Watkins and Fuller. Still, yes, it would be nice to have someone like that.

If wishes were horses ...

However, the one thing that has surprised me is the lack of usage with the TE. No, guys like Reed and Davis aren't going to blow the top off the defense, but they can get down the seam in a hurry. However, it seems like Smith doesn't want to go to them on those seam routes either.

5 hours ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Please don't move the goal posts.  We were discussing Smith's willingness to throw the ball down the field.  IAY is far more relevant than CAY or AYD in that regard.  CAY by its very nature (and, by extension AYD) is reliant on both the QB and the WR's actions.  If the WR drops the pass, that lowers the QBs CAY, through no fault of his own, and while there have been several misses deep by Smith, there have also been several drops deep by his WRs.  

Fair enough.

5 hours ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

You know who else has a lower AYD than Smith?  The great Patrick Mahomes.  Who has threats all over the place to create separation deep for him, including two of the best in the league in Hill and Watkins.  Btw, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are only 0.1 yards ahead of Smith in this stat.  When including Big Ben, those are 4 of the top 5 QBs in the league that Smith is either ahead of, or hovering around, in AYD.

Mahomes' IAY (6.4)/CAY (8.9) and Rodgers' IAY (6.2)/CAY (8.5) are significantly higher than Smith's, so the context is important. I pointed Roethlisberger's incredibly bad AYD in my previous post.

As for Tom Brady, people are starting to comment about how "Tom Terrific" doesn't look so "terrific" this year. Not sure what's up with that. Father Time finally catching up on him?

 

As for Fitzpatrick ... yes, he blew the game for the Bucs. Badly. He was arguably the sole reason we won that game. At the same time, there have been other games where he has looked like can lead the team to victory only to have the defense choke up the game (that sounds familiar). Would I be thrilled if they replaced Smith with Fitzpatrick? Not really. But at least there would be a modicum of hope that the offense could lead a comeback ... yes, alongside a palatable sense of fear that he'll put the team in a deeper hole. Still, there would be a chance that the team could move downfield.

 

I guess barring us getting this "blow the top off the defense" receiver (whomever he might be, wherever he might be had), the offense is what the offense is: a plodding, dink & dunk system, that relies on underneath receivers to get two or three years extra on each play and for Adrian Peterson to keep drinking from the Fountain of Youth.

Yay.

The sole reason I've been a downer about this whole thing is that I see what's coming: at best, a second round exit in the playoffs. Yes, the Alex Smith-led Washington Redskins is essentially the pre-2018 Washington Wizards: good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to get to the big dance.

[turtle28]

16 hours ago, Woz said:

And ignores that:

1. Adrian Peterson's equivalent last year was Samaje Perine, and
2. The shambles we find the offensive line in started in week 8 or 9 in 2018, and week 3 in 2017.

Counter, if we didn’t have AD, Alex would be throwing it about 10 times more per game and having 40-50 more pass yards per game and probably a few of those rushing TDs that AD has, those would be Smith passing TDs.

What happens when Alex gets more attempts? 

Well, he probably has 400 more yards and 3 or 4 more TDs through 9 games like someone had last year because Alex would have a higher volume of attempts.

[Woz]

On 11/15/2018 at 5:25 AM, turtle28 said:

Counter, if we didn’t have AD, Alex would be throwing it about 10 times more per game and having 40-50 more pass yards per game and probably a few of those rushing TDs that AD has, those would be Smith passing TDs.

At least you are (unconsciously) honest in that 10 more attempts from Smith would net him 40-50 more yards (4.0-5.0 YPA).