NFC Playoff Contenders

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...d-be-wild/amp/

Given all of this, the wild-card round could take on more significance than usual, since it’s not a stretch to imagine one of the teams playing this weekend taking home the Lombardi Trophy when all is said and done.

If Elo had to pick a favorite from that category, it would be the Chicago Bears, who are currently tied for third in the league in Elo and will host the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles (tied for No. 7) on Sunday at 4:40 p.m. ET. Chicago finished the regular season having allowed the league’s fewest points, so this is a classic Monsters-of-the-Midway Bears team in that sense. But quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is also playing much better than the typical Chicago QB from playoffs past — he’s no Jim Miller or Rex Grossman, for instance. According to ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating, 2 Trubisky was the NFL’s third most effective quarterback on a per-play basis this season. While he had some lows (such as a dreadful 29.5 QBR in an opening-week loss to the Packers) to go with the highs (like a 98.9 QBR vs. Tampa Bay in Week 4, one of the highest single-game marks on record), Trubisky’s strides as a second-year passer helped Chicago’s offense — which ranked a respectable 13th in expected points added — be more in line with its dominating defense.

[St Vince]

22 hours ago, dll2000 said:

That was a pretty good dig.   But he did say he wanted to be on the good roster mediocre QB train.  

No I'm on the side that an HOF QB doesn't guarantee a SB win and @Uncle Buck in his dig just proved my point. We can all agree that John Elway is way better than Aaron Rodgers and he lost all of his SB's in his prime. He won his SB's late in his career when he finally got a good defense and a running game. Dan Marino? We know that story, great offenses, put up monster stats but had horrible defenses and never got a ring but still a 1st ballot HOF QB. Peyton got his rings because of defense, especially the 2015 season, we can all admit he won because of that defense. The 2006 Colts defense was bad during the regular season, they couldn't stop the run for anything but when the playoffs came around they were lights out and rode that momentum to a Championship. Eli benefited from a lucky fluke play and great defenses both years. The defenses played lights out in the playoffs and both SB's. They held in check an Pats offense that were smashing records left and right in 07. And held Brady in check again in 2011. They may not have been top 10 through the regular season but they were top 10 when it mattered.

All of those QBs he name won because of defensive play. You don't have to be great all year or top 10  but the defense has to be great when it matters. The great Tom Brady won his SB's because he had a defense to bail him out. He won his first two because of defense and special teams. Adam V was the hero of his first two SB wins.

The defensive rankings of Brady's SB winning teams are.

2001 # 24    Opportunistic / spy gate.

2003 # 2      Lights out

2004 # 7      Lights out

2014 # 23    Bend but don't break / made stops when it mattered.

2016 # 8      Not as good as ranking due to playing against a lot of backup QB' s that year,  but came up big on the big stage.

The 03 and 04 defenses were lights out that's why they're the last team to win back to back championships. We know about the goal line saving pick that won that SB in 2014. The Hightower strip turnover is the play that turned that game around. It fired up the defense and they totally shut down that high powered ATL offense to allow Brady to make his epic comeback.  So Brady did benefit from defense, he had top 10 defenses for 3 of his SB wins.

 

Rodgers willed the Packers to the playoffs year after year with terrible defenses. The last time he had a decent defense was 2014. They weren't top ten but good enough to get to a SB. Rodgers was an onside kick recovery away from going to the SB so how is that on him?  how did he choke? He did enough to win that game playing on one leg with a torn calf and zero mobility. If he was healthy he would've torched Seattle who had the # 1 defense playing at home. Rodgers never got a chance to touch the ball in OT because the defense choked. I'll close by saying it's very hard to win a SB.  HOF Jim Kelly lost 4 straight. The QB only controls one side of the ball,  it's not Basketball or Hockey. Rodgers is far from overrated his defenses let him down time after time like that playoff GIF against the Cards. Rodgers wills the team to OT with backup WRs and the defense gives it away with the Larry Fitz pitch. Rodgers never gets to touch the ball, again in OT. Yeah that's Rodgers fault, he's overrated. He willed an average team back to the NFC championship game in 2016 and the defense couldn't stop a nose bleed. let me guess it's because Rodgers is overrated.

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[dafreak]

5 hours ago, St Vince said:

No I'm on the side that an HOF QB doesn't guarantee a SB win and @Uncle Buck in his dig just proved my point. We can all agree that John Elway is way better than Aaron Rodgers and he lost all of his SB's in his prime. He won his SB's late in his career when he finally got a good defense and a running game. Dan Marino? We know that story, great offenses, put up monster stats but had horrible defenses and never got a ring but still a 1st ballot HOF QB. Peyton got his rings because of defense, especially the 2015 season, we can all admit he won because of that defense. The 2006 Colts defense was bad during the regular season, they couldn't stop the run for anything but when the playoffs came around they were lights out and rode that momentum to a Championship. Eli benefited from a lucky fluke play and great defenses both years. The defenses played lights out in the playoffs and both SB's. They held in check an Pats offense that were smashing records left and right in 07. And held Brady in check again in 2011. They may not have been top 10 through the regular season but they were top 10 when it mattered.

All of those QBs he name won because of defensive play. You don't have to be great all year or top 10  but the defense has to be great when it matters. The great Tom Brady won his SB's because he had a defense to bail him out. He won his first two because of defense and special teams. Adam V was the hero of his first two SB wins.

The defensive rankings of Brady's SB winning teams are.

2001 # 24    Opportunistic / spy gate.

2003 # 2      Lights out

2004 # 7      Lights out

2014 # 23    Bend but don't break / made stops when it mattered.

2016 # 8      Not as good as ranking due to playing against a lot of backup QB' s that year,  but came up big on the big stage.

The 03 and 04 defenses were lights out that's why they're the last team to win back to back championships. We know about the goal line saving pick that won that SB in 2014. The Hightower strip turnover is the play that turned that game around. It fired up the defense and they totally shut down that high powered ATL offense to allow Brady to make his epic comeback.  So Brady did benefit from defense, he had top 10 defenses for 3 of his SB wins.

 

Rodgers willed the Packers to the playoffs year after year with terrible defenses. The last time he had a decent defense was 2014. They weren't top ten but good enough to get to a SB. Rodgers was an onside kick recovery away from going to the SB so how is that on him?  how did he choke? He did enough to win that game playing on one leg with a torn calf and zero mobility. If he was healthy he would've torched Seattle who had the # 1 defense playing at home. Rodgers never got a chance to touch the ball in OT because the defense choked. I'll close by saying it's very hard to win a SB.  HOF Jim Kelly lost 4 straight. The QB only controls one side of the ball,  it's not Basketball or Hockey. Rodgers is far from overrated his defenses let him down time after time like that playoff GIF against the Cards. Rodgers wills the team to OT with backup WRs and the defense gives it away with the Larry Fitz pitch. Rodgers never gets to touch the ball, again in OT. Yeah that's Rodgers fault, he's overrated. He willed an average team back to the NFC championship game in 2016 and the defense couldn't stop a nose bleed. let me guess it's because Rodgers is overrated.

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I always considered Rodgers as one of the GOAT. But this year has made me question that, specifically his whining about his WR's.

[Heinz D.]

13 minutes ago, dafreak said:

I always considered Rodgers as one of the GOAT. But this year has made me question that, specifically his whining about his WR's.

Naw, dude, he's still phenomenal. It's clear that something toxic, attitude-wise, spread across that team. Gutekunst, unfortunately for us, is going to fix that. 

[dafreak]

7 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Naw, dude, he's still phenomenal. It's clear that something toxic, attitude-wise, spread across that team. Gutekunst, unfortunately for us, is going to fix that. 

Not sure you can blame his bad play as something toxic spreading across the team?

[St Vince]

1 hour ago, dafreak said:

I always considered Rodgers as one of the GOAT. But this year has made me question that, specifically his whining about his WR's.

He's been upset all year about losing his good friend and favorite target Jordy Nelson.  Allison went on IR and Cobb was hurt most the year as usual so he was forced to play with a entire new receiving core and acted like a whiny little boy because they weren't on the same page as him. 

I think he's using that as an excuse for his poor performance. His accuracy has been off badly this season, he's been missing wide open guys all year. His deep ball throws were off which was shocking because he makes those throws in his sleep. The last game we played you the rookie MVS had Fuller beat deep for a TD and Rodgers flat out missed him with an overthrow. He also missed another potential TD throw to the other rookie St. Brown with a bad throw. Something is going on with his collarbone because he's still not right.

[Heinz D.]

On 1/3/2019 at 5:35 PM, dafreak said:

Not sure you can blame his bad play as something toxic spreading across the team?

You didn't mention his bad play in the quote I responded to. You did bring up his whining, however.

On 1/3/2019 at 6:16 PM, St Vince said:

He's been upset all year about losing his good friend and favorite target Jordy Nelson.  Allison went on IR and Cobb was hurt most the year as usual so he was forced to play with a entire new receiving core and acted like a whiny little boy because they weren't on the same page as him. 

I think he's using that as an excuse for his poor performance. His accuracy has been off badly this season, he's been missing wide open guys all year. His deep ball throws were off which was shocking because he makes those throws in his sleep. The last game we played you the rookie MVS had Fuller beat deep for a TD and Rodgers flat out missed him with an overthrow. He also missed another potential TD throw to the other rookie St. Brown with a bad throw. Something is going on with his collarbone because he's still not right.

You're obviously a Packers sub-forum dude, so you probably weren't around when the folks here were discussing Rodgers. In a nutshell--if I'm coaching that team, Rodgers doesn't return for the last half of the first Bears game. Nor does he play for probably the next three games. The fact that the Packers wouldn't even divulge what exactly happened to Rodgers is pretty telling. Guy should have been on the bench.