WindyCity Posted December 18, 2018 Author Share Posted December 18, 2018 Let’s go Redskins. Ideal 1st round opponent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearDownTexas Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Ok, just ran a simulation and the bears need to win out, the rams need to lose to either the 49ers or the cardinals and saints need to lose against both the Panthers and the Steelers for us to get the 1 seed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT (these were the odds before the MNF game) The chances of us getting the #2 seed are still a long shot but it's still within reach. Edit: legend per Mike Harris and the FO staff Quote The playoff odds report plays out the season 40,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 40,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie. Washington, Philadelphia, and Cincinnati ratings are penalized due to injuries to starting quarterbacks (and in Washington's case, backup quarterback). These simulations do not account for the possibility of teams resting starters in Week 17 after clinching specific playoff seeding. NFC East Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE DAL 8-6 -3.4% 9.0 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 87.4% 0.0% 1.1% 91.5% 0.0% 1.1% 92.6% -6.1% PHI 7-7 -10.4% 8.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 1.3% 19.3% 6.5% 0.0% 20.5% 27.1% 14.4% WAS 7-7 -36.8% 7.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.8% 11.5% 2.0% 0.0% 12.3% 14.3% 5.7% NYG 5-9 4.4% 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.4% NFC North Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE CHI 10-4 20.7% 11.2 2.8% 17.8% 75.3% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 20.6% 0.0% 100.0% 0.1% MIN 7-6-1 10.1% 8.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 41.8% 0.0% 0.0% 63.8% 63.8% 7.3% GB 5-8-1 7.0% 6.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -6.6% DET 5-9 -13.8% 5.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -2.1% NFC South Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE NO 11-2 29.6% 13.1 80.7% 11.9% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.6% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% CAR 6-7 -0.5% 7.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 6.2% -7.6% ATL 5-9 -3.4% 5.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% TB 5-9 -15.0% 5.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.6% NFC West Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE LAR 11-3 17.3% 12.6 16.5% 70.3% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 86.8% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% SEA 8-6 7.0% 9.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 75.6% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 96.0% 96.0% -3.2% SF 4-10 -18.3% 4.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ARI 3-11 -43.3% 3.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearDownTexas Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Or minus JAF's monstrous graph, we need to either win out and the rams lose a game or the rams lose out and we win a game. But once again they have the cardinals and 49ers. We also can get it if the saints lose out and we win out if the rams win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, BearDownTexas said: Or minus JAF's monstrous graph, we need to either win out and the rams lose a game or the rams lose out and we win a game. But once again they have the cardinals and 49ers. We also can get it if the saints lose out and we win out if the rams win out. Lol. What can I say.....I like visual representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearDownTexas Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said: Lol. What can I say.....I like visual representation. Are you on a computer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, BearDownTexas said: Are you on a computer? Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearDownTexas Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said: Yeah. I'm on a phone and graphs kill it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 9 minutes ago, BearDownTexas said: I'm on a phone and graphs kill it lol Yeah, I'm well versed in what invision boards are and are not capable of (which this site uses) and I know it is not very phone and tablet friendly yet in THAT aspect---even though they are working towards it, so I apologize for posting things like that even though I know how hard it is to read for some of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearDownTexas Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 18 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said: Yeah, I'm well versed in what invision boards are and are not capable of (which this site uses) and I know it is not very phone and tablet friendly yet in THAT aspect---even though they are working towards it, so I apologize for posting things like that even though I know how hard it is to read for some of you. No worries, I have a note 9, so I just have to turn my phone sideways lol. Just giving you a hard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Cam Newton is awful. I can’t believe how much he sucks after his MVP season. Talk about not working on your craft. Feel bad for Panthers team. They played hard. Their QB is terrible. Carolina had that game. NO looks vulnerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 51 minutes ago, dll2000 said: Cam Newton is awful. I can’t believe how much he sucks after his MVP season. Talk about not working on your craft. Feel bad for Panthers team. They played hard. Their QB is terrible. Carolina had that game. NO looks vulnerable. Nah....he's only been bad because of injuries. (Lets ignore the constant inaccuracy in his throws that either lead to an INT or an incomplete pass or a target having to make an insane adjustment to a catch. Or let's also ignore him leaving his receivers out to dry or turning the ball over at inopportune times of the game.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 3 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said: Nah....he's only been bad because of injuries. (Lets ignore the constant inaccuracy in his throws that either lead to an INT or an incomplete pass or a target having to make an insane adjustment to a catch. Or let's also ignore him leaving his receivers out to dry or turning the ball over at inopportune times of the game.) Subtle, my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topwop1 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 6 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said: Nah....he's only been bad because of injuries. (Lets ignore the constant inaccuracy in his throws that either lead to an INT or an incomplete pass or a target having to make an insane adjustment to a catch. Or let's also ignore him leaving his receivers out to dry or turning the ball over at inopportune times of the game.) While I don;t think Cam is a good thrower you can tell something is off with his shoulder. He had a few odd ball throws last night. I wouldn't be surprised if they shut him down for the season now that they're pretty much out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 I agree, he's a tough dude that can do amazing things but he looks hobbled right now and I feel bad for him. I feel bad for me too, as my fantasy quarterbacks are Jared Goff and Cam in the finals this coming week. WTF am I supposed to do here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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