Ryan_W Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 the KC/Indy & NO/Eagles games are gonna be a lot of points where every team and fanbase is happy Rams/Dallas will be fun for one team and I have no clue what is going to happen in the last game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtait93 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 hours ago, jaa1025 said: It's exactly what you want in a pass happy offense. It is a big advantage to WR's because they know their routes and it's harder for DB's to keep up with them. Snow on the ground will may hurt a RB like Mack though behind the line but if he can get into into the 2nd layer of the defense then that could spell trouble. I think the colts line is good but the best pass rush, in terms of sacks, that they have played is the Redskins. Opponents for INDY ranked by SACKS 7th Redskins 14th Texans (twice) 16th Titans (twice) 17th Dallas 18th Jets 22nd Jacksonville (twice) 26th. Buffalo 28th. Cincy 29th. Dolphins 30th Patriots 31st Giants 32nd Raiders Again, those aren't overall defensive rankings but pure sack rankings. He was sacked 18 times in the season and 7 of those came against the Redskins and Texans. 11 came against the bottom half of the league. Kansas City is #1 in the league in Sacks. Indy hasn't came close to playing a good pass rush like the Chiefs will bring. This will be Luck's worst game of the year. History disagrees with you. Passing attacks have always gotten worse in cold weather. It's why the running game has always become so important in January unless you play in a dome, which Kansas City does not. As for sacks, the Chiefs do have a better pass rush but the Redskins really aren't that far behind, they generated just 6 less sacks. To say they haven't come close to playing a good pass rush like the Chiefs is nonsense tbh. When the Colts played the Skins they only gave up 1 sack, and that was in week 2. The Colts o-line has gotten a lot better since then. 0 chance this is Luck's worst game against such an overall porous defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaa1025 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12 hours ago, dtait93 said: History disagrees with you. Passing attacks have always gotten worse in cold weather. It's why the running game has always become so important in January unless you play in a dome, which Kansas City does not. As for sacks, the Chiefs do have a better pass rush but the Redskins really aren't that far behind, they generated just 6 less sacks. To say they haven't come close to playing a good pass rush like the Chiefs is nonsense tbh. When the Colts played the Skins they only gave up 1 sack, and that was in week 2. The Colts o-line has gotten a lot better since then. 0 chance this is Luck's worst game against such an overall porous defense. This graph is from 2016, but, cold weather is a significant advantage to the home team. The colder the weather, the bigger the advantage scoring wise. Passing and running affect is pretty negligible but teams do pass less. The colder it gets, running backs have a slightly better average per carry and this likely is geared towards the bruising backs as defenders aren't as likely to hit as hard. Any NFL defender that I've heard in an interview has said the passing offense has the advantage in slippery conditions (rain/snow). The Colts are a dome team on the road. The game time temperature will be in the mid 30s. I'd be surprised if the Colts score 24 points. I wouldn't be surprised if they are held to less than 18-21. This will be a bad game for Luck. The Chiefs defense isn't the best but it's above average at home and they are among the best in the league at rushing the passer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhorse Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Colts rushed for 200 yards....on the road....against the best defensive line in the NFL. Please....bring on the snow. Let's make this a ground game. I am so hoping for snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaa1025 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, Warhorse said: Colts rushed for 200 yards....on the road....against the best defensive line in the NFL. Please....bring on the snow. Let's make this a ground game. I am so hoping for snow..... Oh how many similarities between the 2015 Chiefs and the 2018 Colts. In 2015, the Chiefs started out 1-6. Then, they played a bunch of bad teams and won 9 games in a row to get into the playoffs. They were also seen as the hottest team, just like your Colts. Ironically, their first game was at the Texans 30-0. The town was on fire and people believed that they were going to waltz into Gillette Stadium and upset the top seeded Patriots. The Pats won and it wasn't as close as the final score 27-20 indicated. The Colts played the Texans and ran all over them. It's a divisional game and the 3rd time that they've played this season. Nothing would have surprised me. Both teams have played very soft schedules so they are a bit of an unknown compared to the other teams in the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtait93 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 11 hours ago, jaa1025 said: This graph is from 2016, but, cold weather is a significant advantage to the home team. The colder the weather, the bigger the advantage scoring wise. Passing and running affect is pretty negligible but teams do pass less. The colder it gets, running backs have a slightly better average per carry and this likely is geared towards the bruising backs as defenders aren't as likely to hit as hard. Any NFL defender that I've heard in an interview has said the passing offense has the advantage in slippery conditions (rain/snow). That graph doesn't mean anything to me. You need more data than just one year. I would argue the home team has the advantage because they're at home and the cold only helps or hurts that advantage depending on the style of team. If running backs have a slightly better average per carry in the cold, then isn't that advantage Colts? It makes your already horrible run defense even more horrible. The Colts 8th ranked run defense (6th in ypc) is much more capable of negating that increase compared to the Chiefs 27th ranked run defense (31st in ypc). If teams pass less, then isn't that also advantage Colts? That means the Colts will be running even more than they normally would against a horrible run defense that is even more horrible in cold weather, and on the flip side, the Chiefs will be taking the ball out of the MVP's hands more than they normally would who has a supposed advantage in slippery conditions? 11 hours ago, jaa1025 said: This will be a bad game for Luck. The Chiefs defense isn't the best but it's above average at home and they are among the best in the league at rushing the passer. I've already debunked the myth that the Chiefs defense magically becomes better at home. They had the luxury of playing Bortles, Rosen, Dalton, Keenum, and Carr in 5 of their 8 home games. When they played average QB's or better in Rivers, Garoppolo, and Jackson (who should probably be moved to the luxury list) they allowed 27 ppg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaa1025 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 12 hours ago, dtait93 said: That graph doesn't mean anything to me. You need more data than just one year. I would argue the home team has the advantage because they're at home and the cold only helps or hurts that advantage depending on the style of team. If running backs have a slightly better average per carry in the cold, then isn't that advantage Colts? It makes your already horrible run defense even more horrible. The Colts 8th ranked run defense (6th in ypc) is much more capable of negating that increase compared to the Chiefs 27th ranked run defense (31st in ypc). If teams pass less, then isn't that also advantage Colts? That means the Colts will be running even more than they normally would against a horrible run defense that is even more horrible in cold weather, and on the flip side, the Chiefs will be taking the ball out of the MVP's hands more than they normally would who has a supposed advantage in slippery conditions? I've already debunked the myth that the Chiefs defense magically becomes better at home. They had the luxury of playing Bortles, Rosen, Dalton, Keenum, and Carr in 5 of their 8 home games. When they played average QB's or better in Rivers, Garoppolo, and Jackson (who should probably be moved to the luxury list) they allowed 27 ppg. That was data dating back from 1987-2015 not just one season. And It's a fact that the defense is better at home. Yes, they have played the creme of the crop on the road with some easy games at home so to use a general PPG would be silly. However, there is a great stat that you really can't argue: When the Chiefs are at home, they hold their opponent to 2.4 points less than that teams average PPG. When the Chiefs are on the road, they allow their opponent to score a whopping 9.8 PPG above that teams average PPG. The Colts averaged 27.1 PPG during the regular season. If the Chiefs hold true to this do you think that 25 points is enough to beat KC at home? They have faced better defenses at home and on the road than Indy and haven't scored less than 26 points. That included two uncharacteristic missed fieldgoals as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtait93 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 12 hours ago, jaa1025 said: That was data dating back from 1987-2015 not just one season. And It's a fact that the defense is better at home. Yes, they have played the creme of the crop on the road with some easy games at home so to use a general PPG would be silly. However, there is a great stat that you really can't argue: When the Chiefs are at home, they hold their opponent to 2.4 points less than that teams average PPG. When the Chiefs are on the road, they allow their opponent to score a whopping 9.8 PPG above that teams average PPG. The Colts averaged 27.1 PPG during the regular season. If the Chiefs hold true to this do you think that 25 points is enough to beat KC at home? They have faced better defenses at home and on the road than Indy and haven't scored less than 26 points. That included two uncharacteristic missed fieldgoals as well. You ignored both questions so I'll pose them again. 1) If running backs have a slightly better average per carry in the cold, then isn't that advantage Colts? 2) If teams pass less then isn't that also advantage Colts? And yes that stat can easily be argued: The Chiefs held their opponents to 2.4 points less than what teams average at home because they played bad quarterbacks. The Chiefs allowed their opponents to score 9.8 points more than what teams average on the road because they played good quarterbacks. But the real problem isn't even going to be Andrew Luck - a dark horse MVP candidate. The real problem for KC will be the running game. Over the Colts 5 game win streak (Wild Card included) they're averaging 120 rushing yards per game. I fully expect them to exceed that amount against KC's 27th ranked rushing defense after they just ran for 200 yards against Houston's 3rd ranked rushing defense last week. Andrew Luck is the best QB Kansas City will have faced at home this season and nobody has a hotter rushing attack right now than Indianapolis. Now yes, home-field will help KC but Indianapolis will have it's way with that defense. I just watched it happen to us 2 weeks ago. We have a defense that is league's above yours and they dropped 33 on us at home in the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
game3525 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The Colts/Chiefs game is an interesting one since both offenses matchup very well with each other's respective defenses. The Colts play a ton of zone and Andy Reid eats that for breakfast and Mahomes has been great against zone defenses all year (not that great against teams that changes things up and blitz). Indy has the offensive line to slow down the Chiefs pass rush and should have success moving the ball up and down the field. I know KC has played better on defense at home, but the last QB they faced that was as good as Luck was Rivers, who really didn't have much trouble moving the ball down the field and again Indy's o-line is much better then the Chargers. It feels like a game where it should come down to who has the ball last. I will go with KC, I just can't see them losing at home in their first playoff game given the year Mahomes had. He makes a few clutch plays and KC moves on to host the AFC championship game next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtait93 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 12:00 PM, dtait93 said: You ignored both questions so I'll pose them again. 1) If running backs have a slightly better average per carry in the cold, then isn't that advantage Colts? 2) If teams pass less then isn't that also advantage Colts? And yes that stat can easily be argued: The Chiefs held their opponents to 2.4 points less than what teams average at home because they played bad quarterbacks. The Chiefs allowed their opponents to score 9.8 points more than what teams average on the road because they played good quarterbacks. But the real problem isn't even going to be Andrew Luck - a dark horse MVP candidate. The real problem for KC will be the running game. Over the Colts 5 game win streak (Wild Card included) they're averaging 120 rushing yards per game. I fully expect them to exceed that amount against KC's 27th ranked rushing defense after they just ran for 200 yards against Houston's 3rd ranked rushing defense last week. Andrew Luck is the best QB Kansas City will have faced at home this season and nobody has a hotter rushing attack right now than Indianapolis. Now yes, home-field will help KC but Indianapolis will have it's way with that defense. I just watched it happen to us 2 weeks ago. We have a defense that is league's above yours and they dropped 33 on us at home in the rain. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Just an absolute dominant performance by KC today. Indy wants nothing to do with Arrowhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C0LTSFAN4L1F3 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Let's see if Brady can manage to throw less than 3 interceptions against the Chargers in the playoffs. There's a first for everything folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 hours ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said: Let's see if Brady can manage to throw less than 3 interceptions against the Chargers in the playoffs. There's a first for everything folks. LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaa1025 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 11:00 AM, dtait93 said: You ignored both questions so I'll pose them again. 1) If running backs have a slightly better average per carry in the cold, then isn't that advantage Colts? 2) If teams pass less then isn't that also advantage Colts? And yes that stat can easily be argued: The Chiefs held their opponents to 2.4 points less than what teams average at home because they played bad quarterbacks. The Chiefs allowed their opponents to score 9.8 points more than what teams average on the road because they played good quarterbacks. But the real problem isn't even going to be Andrew Luck - a dark horse MVP candidate. The real problem for KC will be the running game. Over the Colts 5 game win streak (Wild Card included) they're averaging 120 rushing yards per game. I fully expect them to exceed that amount against KC's 27th ranked rushing defense after they just ran for 200 yards against Houston's 3rd ranked rushing defense last week. Andrew Luck is the best QB Kansas City will have faced at home this season and nobody has a hotter rushing attack right now than Indianapolis. Now yes, home-field will help KC but Indianapolis will have it's way with that defense. I just watched it happen to us 2 weeks ago. We have a defense that is league's above yours and they dropped 33 on us at home in the rain. Hrmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaa1025 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 hours ago, dtait93 said: I couldn’t have been more wrong. Just an absolute dominant performance by KC today. Indy wants nothing to do with Arrowhead. Yeah, they have been much better at home over the last 3 years than away. This is the best defensive performance I've seen KC play in years though. I'm sure the weather had a little something to do with it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtait93 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 21 minutes ago, jaa1025 said: Hrmmm No one is happier than me to eat that crow, I don’t enjoy watching the Colts play. Mahomes is electric and I’m glad we get another week of him. He’s the NFL’s version of Steph Curry in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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