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Rookie QB Stats (1994-2016), Reasonable Expectations, & Deshone Kizer in Context


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At this point Kizer completion rate are right there with every QB who ever flopped and in some cases even worse. Only Eli and Smith, 2 guys who went #1 overall, survived such a low completion rate and went on to be solid franchise QB's. No second round QB has ever survived this kind of start as a QB in the NFL.

Even Gabbert had a better rookie season than Kizer and he won 4 games.

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8 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

At this point Kizer completion rate are right there with every QB who ever flopped and in some cases even worse. Only Eli and Smith, 2 guys who went #1 overall, survived such a low completion rate and went on to be solid franchise QB's. No second round QB has ever survived this kind of start as a QB in the NFL.

Even Gabbert had a better rookie season than Kizer and he won 4 games.

You do realize we have 10 games left and NEWS FLASH most rookie QBs are worse in the beginning of the year and see incremental improvement over the course of the season

. So, in terms of completion percentage we'll see at the end of the season. I'd expect Kizer to be 54% or less on the season.

Also, context matters...like drops per game and/or WR wrong routes...

Completion percentage is kind of a useless statistic. On Target Accuracy percentage is better...Tells you if the ball was catchable or not, but still doesn't control for wrong routes.

Kizer's been bad this season but saying Gabbert this or Geno that doesnt mean much until we can get a bigger sample size

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  • 2 months later...

At the end of this historically bad rookie season season, all that many on this board said were true.

Kizer should have never played and was no where near ready especially after a draining and disastrous last year at Notre Dame.

Unlike others, I truly believe that the flashes we saw this year mean that the story has yet to be written on Kizer and diligent and tireless work on mechanics as well as knowledge of the game may lead to growth in year 3 and 4 for what was the youngest QB in the league this year.

I figured he'd have a Stafford type rookie year with well over 20 turnovers and that's what we saw but it ended up being more like Jake Plummer's 1999 season of 9 TDs to 24 Ints...

The best thing for Deshone is now he gets to work and grow w/o the immediate pressures of starting...we'll see where he ends up.

He has a major hill to climb when it comes to accuracy, poise, and decision making....it will be interesting to see what type of player emerges after some work and metamorphisis.

Still...there is so much raw and rare talent at such a young age to work with....Can/will he achieve the necessary growth/improvement?? It looks unlikely but it should be interesting to see what the future holds..

 

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9 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

I think I made my point, like Hueball we shouldn't make predictions.

FIFY.

If ever there was a dude needing to be thrown into a lake, he’s the guy. Think of it like a cleanse. The longer he’s under, the more filth we are all cleansed of. 

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4 minutes ago, NateDawg said:

If ever there was a dude needing to be thrown into a lake, he’s the guy. Think of it like a cleanse. The longer he’s under, the more filth we are all cleansed of. 

This does have an intriguing potential endgame if the Haslam's are not going to fire him. 

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1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

"I'll bet during Cody Kessler's Hall of Fame speech..."

I don't know if I made a prediction but if I did it would have been a lot better than what happened, so lake for me too (or Ohio river, it's closer).

I never predicted a HOF career for Kessler, just said he was a better option to McCown/RGIII last year. I also would have started him this year in my own offense, in Hue's offense I get why he doesn't play. He almost couldn't have ended up worse than Kizer though.

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