jrry32 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, incognito_man said: Nothing. I just got done saying 99.999% of the population (including, I suspect, your referenced source) and 100% of everyone in here isn't qualified ha Incognito, it sure seems like you're narrowing the field of those "qualified" to speak on Bitcoin to only those who are optimistic about it. Quote Many consider the immutability of Bitcoin to be a far superior safety net than a government. It transcends any group in power. That's it's major appeal to people...So yes, that's what makes it different and better than other fiats. Your opinion is that it would shake the faith. Can you support it? It got jittery when China was discussing banning some exchanges, but continues to surge. This also assumes that it's reasonable to think it would ever be banned. That's not reasonable. There's no legitimate reason to consider banning it. I don't see that as making it better than other fiats. There's no safety net. There are no protections. That will always make it vulnerable until they find some way to change that. Can I support that it? How would I support it? It's a theory. There are plenty of examples throughout history of massive failures following a market shock that shakes consumer confidence. However, until it happens, I can't prove it will happen. Just like the people warning about the dotcom bubble burst or the housing market bubble burst couldn't definitively prove it until it happened. Quote No you can't. In the same way you can't separate Tesla stock from its underlying battery tech. The reason for the meteoric rise is the appeal of the underlying asset. People are excited that people are excited about it. People are excited about it because of what it is. You simply cannot separate it from what it is...I don't get why you think you can? What's the logic? People are excited about it because of the prospect of making money. All you have to do is talk to them. Ask them why they're investing. Hell, I'd venture to say most people investing in Tesla don't care about the battery tech. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Know what scared me away from buying Bitcoin 5 years ago? The math. I didn't like how you could have .004982 of something. I hate the decimals. Gonna have full numbers of Ethereum and Litecoin and go up tenths of bitcoin because I hate math and I hate numbers, so the less of them the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 13 hours ago, Oregon Ducks said: I have a few hundred to invest. Tips? Pay off any high interest debt, get an emergency fund going, put everything you can into an IRA/HSA/401k with low fee index funds. If you've maxed all that out and want to use play money for cryptocurrencies, cool. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 7 hours ago, jrry32 said: Yes, you can separate its value. It's seen a meteoric rise because people see it as a speculative security with a ton of upside. It's treated like a stock. It's decentralization and anonymity is no longer the motivating factor. This is what bothers me about it the most. It's a neckbeard get rich quick cheat code for a lot of people. Hell, look at this thread. Most everyone who is new to this is coming in and saying something along the lines of "I keep hearing people are getting rich from this, I want in." That has nothing to do with decentralization, sov cit libertarian independence, blockchain technology, or anything like that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 7 hours ago, jrry32 said: Incognito, it sure seems like you're narrowing the field of those "qualified" to speak on Bitcoin to only those who are optimistic about it. No, it doesn't seem like that at all. You maybe want it to seem that way to create an argument, but I've stated twice now that virtually everyone is unqualified. I've criticized the optimism in this very thread...you should read up 7 hours ago, jrry32 said: Can I support that it? How would I support it? .with reasoning. Why is a scare resource with an immutable ledger less of a safety net than a government that can (and has historically) suffer from hyperinflation? 7 hours ago, jrry32 said: Hell, I'd venture to say most people investing in Tesla don't care about the battery tech Well yeah. The vast majority of investors in anything don't intimately understand the underlying asset. That's the argument here. This is not unique to Bitcoin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 22 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: This is what bothers me about it the most. It's a neckbeard get rich quick cheat code for a lot of people. Hell, look at this thread. Most everyone who is new to this is coming in and saying something along the lines of "I keep hearing people are getting rich from this, I want in." That has nothing to do with decentralization, sov cit libertarian independence, blockchain technology, or anything like that. But this is true of all things in humanity...we've all always wanted what others want even if we don't understand it. Again, this is not a unique situation in that regard. The same argument could be made for securities before they became mainstream, and perhaps even after they did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, incognito_man said: But this is true of all things in humanity...we've all always wanted what others want even if we don't understand it. Again, this is not a unique situation in that regard. The same argument could be made for securities before they became mainstream, and perhaps even after they did. Sure. There are lots of people who don't know anything about personal finance chucking a few thousand into a 401k each year because they want it to help make them rich. But the differences with bitcoin/crytpocurrencies are the track record, potential expected timeframe, and realistic return. If I'm going into the S&P 500, I know some of it is going to be actively traded short term. But a lot of it won't be. It's people's 401ks and IRAs in there that they aren't touching for 10, 20, or 30 years. I also know people aren't going to expect to double their money that quickly, and won't pull out because they didn't get rich quick. People are coming in with a more steady expectation in returns and in time frame. We simply don't know how people that are buying into crypto are expecting it to perform, partially because we don't have a track record to set a baseline and partially because of the get rich quick scheme attitude that is attracting people. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 22 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: Sure. There are lots of people who don't know anything about personal finance chucking a few thousand into a 401k each year because they want it to help make them rich. But the differences with bitcoin/crytpocurrencies are the track record, potential expected timeframe, and realistic return. If I'm going into the S&P 500, I know some of it is going to be actively traded short term. But a lot of it won't be. It's people's 401ks and IRAs in there that they aren't touching for 10, 20, or 30 years. I also know people aren't going to expect to double their money that quickly, and won't pull out because they didn't get rich quick. People are coming in with a more steady expectation in returns and in time frame. We simply don't know how people that are buying into crypto are expecting it to perform, partially because we don't have a track record to set a baseline and partially because of the get rich quick scheme attitude that is attracting people. I don't disagree with any of this, my only point is that the value of Bitcoin is what I initially stated and the subsequent run-up is dependent on that perceived value still existing at the base (even if every 'investor' doesn't care about that or even know about it). I am NOT arguing that it is priced appropriately (nobody knows that). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mossburg Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 (edited) 10 hours ago, incognito_man said: bitcoin wouldn't collapse if the U.S. outlawed it. Nor is he right that it serves no purpose other than circumvention. Clearly a smart guy, but is he qualified to speak about cryptocurrencies generally? I mean, I'm a huge skeptic of this, but the holes in his reasoning are pretty glaring. Yea, I dunno what's so special about what he said. jrry set that up like I was going to get some kind of insight, instead that article reads like he's a standard old guy petrified of change, rehashing the same talking points said by so many. Sound like Jim Lampley talking about MMA. I really hope Amazon starts accepting it, I dunno if there is a possible bigger boost out there for its legitimacy. This could be a stage 3 narrative of bitcoin, stage one being "Isn't that the stuff people use to buy drugs and Taiwanese hookers online?" Stage two being "high risk investment vehicle, please avoid / WE GON' BE RICH!" Obviously difference between 1 and 2 is a huge upgrade already. I got involved because I want to use it as a currency. I was lucky to buy some when I did because my interest peaked at the right time, and I honestly would rather it go down and be more accepted in other places to buy stuff and be discussed more as an alternative currency. As exciting as this madness is, I don't really care for it that much. Edited November 30, 2017 by Mossburg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrry32 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 28 minutes ago, Mossburg said: Yea, I dunno what's so special about what he said. jrry set that up like I was going to get some kind of insight, instead that article reads like he's a standard old guy petrified of change, rehashing the same talking points said by so many. Sound like Jim Lampley talking about MMA. Except for the fact that the standard old guy has gone on record in support of getting rid of paper money and going to virtual currencies. That sure doesn't sound like an old man afraid of change and technology. It doesn't seem like much because people are latching onto the wrong point. I don't care about the "ought to be outlawed" point. I care about the "Bitcoin is a speculative bubble with nothing justifying its meteoric growth" point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrry32 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, incognito_man said: No, it doesn't seem like that at all. You maybe want it to seem that way to create an argument, but I've stated twice now that virtually everyone is unqualified. I've criticized the optimism in this very thread...you should read up .with reasoning. Why is a scare resource with an immutable ledger less of a safety net than a government that can (and has historically) suffer from hyperinflation? Well yeah. The vast majority of investors in anything don't intimately understand the underlying asset. That's the argument here. This is not unique to Bitcoin. Who is qualified then? What is unique to Bitcoin is that It's both the investment and the product. I'll address the other point at a later time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, incognito_man said: I don't disagree with any of this, my only point is that the value of Bitcoin is what I initially stated and the subsequent run-up is dependent on that perceived value still existing at the base (even if every 'investor' doesn't care about that or even know about it). I am NOT arguing that it is priced appropriately (nobody knows that). The challenge with Bitcoin is that the value is exclusively based on that buy-in of the investment base. With the dollar, you have the backing of the US government, which you know is getting tax revenue from an economy that is something on the order of $400 trillion. You have buildings and land. With bitcoin, you have a bunch of super convoluted useless solutions to math equations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mossburg Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 (edited) 25 minutes ago, jrry32 said: Except for the fact that the standard old guy has gone on record in support of getting rid of paper money and going to virtual currencies. That sure doesn't sound like an old man afraid of change and technology. It doesn't seem like much because people are latching onto the wrong point. I don't care about the "ought to be outlawed" point. I care about the "Bitcoin is a speculative bubble with nothing justifying its meteoric growth" point. Yea, I don't disagree with the bubble, I think a lot of people in in the bitcoin community agree. I do think he ignores (unless he addressed this elsewhere) the value of the ability to revolutionize commerce in many poor places where they set up internet. The technology itself has amazing value. But yes, that alone is not the reason why the price ballooned. Saying it should be outlawed is pretty extreme and what jumps out at anyone who reads that, especially considering that's the freaking headline haha. Edited November 30, 2017 by Mossburg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 hours ago, jrry32 said: Who is qualified then? What is unique to Bitcoin is that It's both the investment and the product. I'll address the other point at a later time. Those who've spent significant time understanding it. Also, virtual currency =\= Bitcoin. The value of Bitcoin is not simply because it's not physical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 3 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: The challenge with Bitcoin is that the value is exclusively based on that buy-in of the investment base. With the dollar, you have the backing of the US government, which you know is getting tax revenue from an economy that is something on the order of $400 trillion. You have buildings and land. With bitcoin, you have a bunch of super convoluted useless solutions to math equations. I'm not sure why real assets are a safety net. The U.S could in theory print off a quadrillion dollars a day rendering the value of fiat currency stored today worthless regardless of any buildings or land within our borders. Bitcoin is both scarce and theoretically immune to central control. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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