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GDT "Let's Move On" Edition: Bears & Broncos 9/15/19

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1 hour ago, soulman said:

We also have some TEs and another one won't do us any good if our QB isn't even throwing to them.

Idk, Burton got 76 targets last year, he throws to TEs but didn't throw to Shaheen because he kinda sucks IMO. He threw a perfectly good pass only for Shaheen to drop it. 

 

As for the others we have no one of note as a receiving threat at TE besides Burton. Sowell is a blocker who is limely lookkng at 10 tarheta this season at beat and Braunecker is JAG who shouldn't be put over our top 5 WRs under any circumstances. 

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1 hour ago, blkwdw13 said:

Statistically he has never been above average. He’s always been at average to bottom 5. But he has gotten better every year. 

Au contraire mon frere.......ranked #14 out of 33.

https://purpleptsd.com/how-good-is-your-teams-punter-all-33-nfl-punters-ranked/

How Good Is Your Team’s Punter? All 33 NFL Punters, Ranked

By LBVikings -
February 18, 2018
0
46629
Hekk.png
Use Discount Code TCTWINS for a Free ONE YEAR Premium Membership!

Punters simply cannot be evaluated by simple distance alone. We’ve known this for a while, but national media still cites net yards or touchbacks (as a positive?!) constantly. For the third year in a row, I’ve taken the punting data from 2017 and parsed it in a more useful way. Here’s last year’s, with 2015’s results embedded into it. For more on the methodology and why things are the way they are, check that out. But very briefly:

Short field punts (from your own 40 and closer) are measured as a percentage of the field they cover. So a punt from the 50 that’s fielded at the 10 is an 80% punt, as it covered 80% of the available field. Long field punts (everything behind your own 40) are simply measured as average distance, since those are the times you’re trying to boot it as far as possible. Touchbacks are a -20 yard penalty for obvious reasons, and blocked punts are removed.

 

Punters are ranked by a combination of these measures, weighted toward long-field punts since they’re more common.

Name Team Long Field Avg Short Field Avg
Shance Lechler Texans 52.22 76.59%
Marquette King Raiders 50.56 77.82%
Britton Colquitt Browns 50.40 77.55%
Thomas Morstead Saints 49.74 77.90%
Lac Edwards Jets 49.67 77.08%
Johnny Hekker Rams 50.88 74.93%
Andy Lee Cardinals 50.05 75.38%
Chris Jones Cowboys 48.36 77.74%
Riley Dixon Broncos 45.04 83.01%
Rigoberto Sanchez Colts 47.54 76.92%
Drew Kaser Chargers 52.66 69.27%
Kevin Huber Bengals 48.38 74.95%
Jeff Locke Lions 47.33 76.59%
Pat O’Donnell Bears 49.71 72.59%
Michael Palardy Panthers 49.10 73.43%
Sam Koch Ravens 47.91 74.53%
Tress Way Redskins 48.45 73.42%
Brett Kern Titans 50.98 69.65%
Bryan Anger Buccaneers 48.67 72.15%
Colton Schmidt Bills 46.65 75.07%
Donnie Jones Eagles 46.38 75.23%
Jon Ryan Seahawks 46.71 74.71%
Bradley Pinion 49ers 46.61 74.74%
Ryan Allen Patriots 47.30 73.07%
Jordan Berry Steelers 47.13 72.90%
Matt Haack Dolphins 46.78 72.92%
Dustin Colquitt Chiefs 50.65 67.08%
Matt Bosher Falcons 46.88 72.16%
Ryan Quigley Vikings 45.45 74.06%
Justin Vogel Packers 45.73 71.53%
Brad Nortman Jaguars 46.06 70.22%
Brad Wing Giants 44.95 69.74%
Sam Martin Lions 46.86 66.73%

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33 minutes ago, soulman said:

Au contraire mon frere.......ranked #14 out of 33.

https://purpleptsd.com/how-good-is-your-teams-punter-all-33-nfl-punters-ranked/

How Good Is Your Team’s Punter? All 33 NFL Punters, Ranked

By LBVikings -
February 18, 2018
0
46629
Hekk.png
Use Discount Code TCTWINS for a Free ONE YEAR Premium Membership!

Punters simply cannot be evaluated by simple distance alone. We’ve known this for a while, but national media still cites net yards or touchbacks (as a positive?!) constantly. For the third year in a row, I’ve taken the punting data from 2017 and parsed it in a more useful way. Here’s last year’s, with 2015’s results embedded into it. For more on the methodology and why things are the way they are, check that out. But very briefly:

Short field punts (from your own 40 and closer) are measured as a percentage of the field they cover. So a punt from the 50 that’s fielded at the 10 is an 80% punt, as it covered 80% of the available field. Long field punts (everything behind your own 40) are simply measured as average distance, since those are the times you’re trying to boot it as far as possible. Touchbacks are a -20 yard penalty for obvious reasons, and blocked punts are removed.

 

Punters are ranked by a combination of these measures, weighted toward long-field punts since they’re more common.

Name Team Long Field Avg Short Field Avg
Shance Lechler Texans 52.22 76.59%
Marquette King Raiders 50.56 77.82%
Britton Colquitt Browns 50.40 77.55%
Thomas Morstead Saints 49.74 77.90%
Lac Edwards Jets 49.67 77.08%
Johnny Hekker Rams 50.88 74.93%
Andy Lee Cardinals 50.05 75.38%
Chris Jones Cowboys 48.36 77.74%
Riley Dixon Broncos 45.04 83.01%
Rigoberto Sanchez Colts 47.54 76.92%
Drew Kaser Chargers 52.66 69.27%
Kevin Huber Bengals 48.38 74.95%
Jeff Locke Lions 47.33 76.59%
Pat O’Donnell Bears 49.71 72.59%
Michael Palardy Panthers 49.10 73.43%
Sam Koch Ravens 47.91 74.53%
Tress Way Redskins 48.45 73.42%
Brett Kern Titans 50.98 69.65%
Bryan Anger Buccaneers 48.67 72.15%
Colton Schmidt Bills 46.65 75.07%
Donnie Jones Eagles 46.38 75.23%
Jon Ryan Seahawks 46.71 74.71%
Bradley Pinion 49ers 46.61 74.74%
Ryan Allen Patriots 47.30 73.07%
Jordan Berry Steelers 47.13 72.90%
Matt Haack Dolphins 46.78 72.92%
Dustin Colquitt Chiefs 50.65 67.08%
Matt Bosher Falcons 46.88 72.16%
Ryan Quigley Vikings 45.45 74.06%
Justin Vogel Packers 45.73 71.53%
Brad Nortman Jaguars 46.06 70.22%
Brad Wing Giants 44.95 69.74%
Sam Martin Lions 46.86 66.73%

It just seems like he has one "wow" punt every 6 or 7 games, and what's on my/our mind is his final punt vs Philly that gave them their short field.

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2 hours ago, Nads786 said:

I think you pointed out something really important. Mitch being hard on himself and trying to be perfect. That is not a great mentality to have. It puts so much pressure on you as a player and you can’t just play. He rarely looks like he’s having fun out there.

if he can’t over this mental hurdle he’ll always be in trouble.

He's a pleaser.  What other teenage or college age kid allows his mother to insist he still be called Mitchell and not the shortened Mitch?

I'm not implying he's a Momma's Boy but what he is is a nice polite kid who went to a good school and has a squeaky clean personality and reputation.  After QBs like Mac and Cutler I'm fairly certain that went into Pace's formula too because it also matches his personality and what he wanted in his QB.

Mitch is also trying hard to please Nagy and his staff by learning the offense and the play calls for the huddle while exerting the confidence and leadership he needs to be respected by the team.  But beneath all that I believe he's still not all that confident in himself and he needs things to "go right" or he gets shaky.

That's when we hear the we didn't have any momentum stuff and I gotta do better and I feel like I let my teammates down.

So when does the talk in the huddle become will you mother****ers please block someone so I have time to throw a decent pass?  When does he fix an icy stare on Tarik for fumbling on the initial play for the first drive and screw up what could have been a huge gain?  When does he get a play call that makes absolutely no sense given the game status and down and distance look over at Nagy and tell him GFY?

When will he finally be ready to take over and say "I got this" the way a Brady, or a Rodgers, or a Brees, or even a Philip Rivers can do?

When Rodgers was getting the crap beat out of him playing LaFleurs way what happened?  He went back to his more familiar shot gun, pitched a 47 yard completion, then scored the games only TD as if to say to LaFleur there, do you get what I mean about let me be me now?  At some point in time Mitch needs to break his ties to Nagy and become like that to at least some extent.

Every time Rodgers gets to put one over on us he always has that smirk on his face.....his gotcha' look.

I believe Mitch needs to get to the point where he can do the same.  That wasn't a pretty drive by Rodgers.  It was playground football helped by a SS who blew his coverage not once but twice. But it counted for 6 points anyway.  For the rest of this season I would like to see Mitch just relax and just go out and get the job done the best way he can right now.  Style points don't count only wins and losses.

Edited by soulman

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28 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

It just seems like he has one "wow" punt every 6 or 7 games, and what's on my/our mind is his final punt vs Philly that gave them their short field.

Well his stats tell us he's at least average and my bet is every other punter in the NFL has blown some punts as well.  We just don't see those because we aren't watching those games and no is doing a video compilation of them either.

No doubt there are other who are better and the stats also tell us that but how many are kicking in SF in Oct.-Dec. vs somewhere in the South or in a Dome?  What would O'Donnell's stats look like if he punted for Dallas, LA, NOLA, or Indy?

If he was a below average to bottom five guy why would Pace have resigned him?  Logically he would not have but he did and anyway WhyTF are we even talking about a punter whose at least average when our QB isn't or at least not yet?

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13 minutes ago, soulman said:

He's a pleaser.  What other teenage or college age kid allows his mother to insist he still be called Mitchell and not the shortened Mitch?

I'm not implying he's a Momma's Boy but what he is is a nice polite kid who went to a good school and has a squeaky clean personality and reputation.  After QBs like Mac and Cutler I'm fairly certain that went into Pace's formula too because it also matches his personality and what he wanted in his QB.

Mitch is also trying hard to please Nagy and his staff by learning the offense and the play calls for the huddle while exerting the confidence and leadership he needs to be respected by the team.  But beneath all that I believe he's still not all that confident in himself and he needs things to "go right" or he gets shaky.

That's when we hear the we didn't have any momentum stuff and I gotta do better and I feel like I let my teammates down.

So when does the talk in the huddle become will you mother****ers please block someone so I have time to throw a decent pass?  When does he fix an icy stare on Tarik for fumbling on the initial play for the first drive and screw up what could have been a huge gain?  When does he get a play call that makes absolutely no sense given the game status and down and distance look over at Nagy and tell him GFY?

When will he finally be ready to take over and say "I got this" the way a Brady, or a Rodgers, or a Brees, or even a Philip Rivers can do?

When Rodgers was getting the crap beat out of him playing LaFleurs way what happened?  He went back to his more familiar shot gun, pitched a 47 yard completion, then scored the games only TD as if to say to LaFleur there, do you get what I mean about let me be me now?  At some point in time Mitch needs to break his ties to Nagy and become like that to at least some extent.

Every time Rodgers gets to put one over on us he always has that smirk on his face.....his gotcha' look.

I believe Mitch needs to get to the point where he can do the same.  That wasn't a pretty drive by Rodgers.  It was playground football helped by a SS who blew his coverage not once but twice. But it counted for 6 points anyway.  For the rest of this season I would like to see Mitch just relax and just go out and get the job done the best way he can right now.  Style points don't count only wins and losses.

I kind of just wrote the same thing. Take the f'ing training wheels off and let him ball!

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2 hours ago, SLCbear said:

Field position throughout the course of a game, esp in ugly slug it out ones, is a huge factor ...esp with our suffocating D. We need someone to boom kicks and even flip field position from time to time. I can't remember the last time odonnell flipped FP ! Dude never drop in nice directional kicks either  ...he is a weakness

Maybe so but his stats say he's an average punter playing outdoors in a stadium that sits about a mile or less off the lake where winds can easily hit 20-25 mph in the fall and gusts even higher.  He's at least average to above average in dropping kicks inside the opponents 20 as well.  If O'Donnell was that bad why did Pace re-sign him?  Logically he would not have but he did.  So what else can we say right now?

Jeezus, let's stay focused on the bigger problems for now and let the little ones slide OK?  Poor punting is not what's losing us games.  Scoring just 3 points is.

Edited by soulman

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2 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Idk, Burton got 76 targets last year, he throws to TEs but didn't throw to Shaheen because he kinda sucks IMO. He threw a perfectly good pass only for Shaheen to drop it. 

 

As for the others we have no one of note as a receiving threat at TE besides Burton. Sowell is a blocker who is limely lookkng at 10 tarheta this season at beat and Braunecker is JAG who shouldn't be put over our top 5 WRs under any circumstances. 

But how many did Mitch throw to TEs last week?

That would have more bearing on our going TE shopping now which is not likely to happen this year.

Shaheen, much like Mitch, is gonna need to prove himself this year and show some solid progress in his game.  This much we know and dropped passes aren't the way to do that.  Face it.  He may end up another bust because he's too oft injured and maybe too inconsistent when not.

Braunecker may be JAG but I betcha I can name at least two dozen more TEs on other teams who are JAGs as well and even if we did go TE shopping unless we pay through the nose all we'll get is another JAG just like him.  So I see us gaining no ground there at all.  And Burton even when healthy is somewhat less productive than expected.

IF Nagy continues to feature a TE in his passing offense then we'd better make upgrading that position a priority next spring but there's really nothing much we can do about now if anything.  The roster is set brother.  It run whatcha' brung time.

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Bottom line, Pace picked the least experienced QB in the draft. It is inexcusable regardless of what other successes he has had as a GM. The most important positional pick for the future of the franchise and he falls in love with a player and reaches. I'm sorry they **** the bed, and they dam well know it.

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3 hours ago, dafreak said:

I kind of just wrote the same thing. Take the f'ing training wheels off and let him ball!

  • Yep, I was just agreeing wordy SOB that I am.  LOL 
Edited by soulman

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2 hours ago, soulman said:

But how many did Mitch throw to TEs last week?

That would have more bearing on our going TE shopping now which is not likely to happen this year.

Shaheen, much like Mitch, is gonna need to prove himself this year and show some solid progress in his game.  This much we know and dropped passes aren't the way to do that.  Face it.  He may end up another bust because he's too oft injured and maybe too inconsistent when not.

Braunecker may be JAG but I betcha I can name at least two dozen more TEs on other teams who are JAGs as well and even if we did go TE shopping unless we pay through the nose all we'll get is another JAG just like him.  So I see us gaining no ground there at all.  And Burton even when healthy is somewhat less productive than expected.

IF Nagy continues to feature a TE in his passing offense then we'd better make upgrading that position a priority next spring but there's really nothing much we can do about now if anything.  The roster is set brother.  It run whatcha' brung time.

Meh. It isn't as relevant as there wasn't talent to be had there. You're seeming to ignore the larger sample size in effort to focus on a single game (one that was absolutely an outlier from what we have seen as well), at least that is what it looks like.

The snap counts reflect that they were far more focused on WRs than putting TEs in. Shaheen had 34 snaps, which is less than Cohen, Robinson, Gabriel and the other WRs combined for  a total of 56 snaps (Patterson had a snap as a RB that I'm not counting). Braunecker had only 10 snaps on offense. Nagy put more reliance on having extra WRs than he did on the TEs. Shaheen also failed on one of the two chances he had. He is on the roster hoping to do something but his time may be fading fast.

 

My point wasn't that we would go and get a TE, it is that Tru didn't throw to them because likely because they suck and rarely get separation. If Burton was out there there is no way in hell he gets only 2 targets IMO. That happened only one time with Tru last year and that was the game he got rocked on a late hit vs MIN, when MIN was also focusing on taking Burton out of the gameplan completely. Savage and Amos are talents, but are not Harrison Smith by any means.

As for Burton being less productive than expected, IDK how that works out. He was 10th in receptions, 13th in yards, 4th in TDs, etc. That was after starting only 5 games in the previous 4 years. He surely isn't game wrecking in the way Kittle and others are, but far better than Shaheen will ever be IMO.

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42 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Meh. It isn't as relevant as there wasn't talent to be had there. You're seeming to ignore the larger sample size in effort to focus on a single game (one that was absolutely an outlier from what we have seen as well), at least that is what it looks like.

The snap counts reflect that they were far more focused on WRs than putting TEs in. Shaheen had 34 snaps, which is less than Cohen, Robinson, Gabriel and the other WRs combined for  a total of 56 snaps (Patterson had a snap as a RB that I'm not counting). Braunecker had only 10 snaps on offense. Nagy put more reliance on having extra WRs than he did on the TEs. Shaheen also failed on one of the two chances he had. He is on the roster hoping to do something but his time may be fading fast.

 

My point wasn't that we would go and get a TE, it is that Tru didn't throw to them because likely because they suck and rarely get separation. If Burton was out there there is no way in hell he gets only 2 targets IMO. That happened only one time with Tru last year and that was the game he got rocked on a late hit vs MIN, when MIN was also focusing on taking Burton out of the gameplan completely. Savage and Amos are talents, but are not Harrison Smith by any means.

As for Burton being less productive than expected, IDK how that works out. He was 10th in receptions, 13th in yards, 4th in TDs, etc. That was after starting only 5 games in the previous 4 years. He surely isn't game wrecking in the way Kittle and others are, but far better than Shaheen will ever be IMO.

More like then was then and now is now and only in response to those who feel we should be out TE shopping at this very moment.  We have roughly $13 mil of cap tied up in 4 TEs now and we should looking to spend more!!!!!  Not something I would favor.

In reference to Burton what I meant was certain fans see him as having been less productive than expected.  Personally I simply see him as being injured more than I expected.  When he's able to play I'm good with him but his absences have also curtailed his production.

Now let's talk about why Mitch may not choose to use them other than maybe Burton.

Suck is a matter of personal opinion so we can't use that as an excuse.  As far lack of separation if that's what he's waiting for then he's making a mistake.  How much separation did Graham have from Bush on his TD catch from Rodgers?  Zip.  Bush should have been able to defend the pass but Graham used his size and his savvy to box him out and make the catch.  Shaheen is a very similar TE.

Shaheen isn't gonna give Mitch much separation so he needs to have him use his size and reach to get completions.  I'd say it's more of a trust issue that both need to work on but in the final analysis Mitch needs to trust more than just ARob when he needs a key completion.

Braunecker is different.  He's a bit more of a slightly larger version of Burton with similar speed and athleticism and I think he's somewhat better than he's been given credit for.  He should be replacing Burton as a target if Burton is out but again, is it a simple trust issue.

The bottom line is Mitch needs to expand his comfort zone with his receivers and become less predictable.  Until he does team will continue to do what GB did by taking away what he wants to do and forcing him into either doing what he's not as comfortable with or waiting for him to make a mistake by forcing a throw into coverage as he did with ARob when he got picked. 

He had other options but failed to use them and if teams are gonna flood those zones 10-20 yards deep on him then his RBs and his TEs will need to become his best buddies and be there to get him out of a jam and keep the drives alive.  So in summary I'm saying our TE issue is as much or more on Mitch than it is the TEs.  We have some talent there but he's not using it well at all.

 

Edited by soulman

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Holy **** get Sunday here so we can play this game, I am so ready to see the back of week 1...

 

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And in the way of some good news the Injury Report is pretty bare.

#Bears Wednesday Injury Report:
Limited: TE Trey Burton (groin); NT Eddie Goldman (oblique)
Full: OL Rashaad Coward (elbow)

— Chicago Bears (@BearsPR) September 11, 2019

 

Burton still malingering with his sore groin, Goldman limited but not out, Coward back at full strength.

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