incognito_man Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 6 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said: 1) PFR has not updated it's win probability format since 2016 mid season. They still provide the EPA in the game by game but the win probability calculator has been broken for 3 years now. 2) It only dates from 1994-2016, not in NFL game history like you tried to pass it off as. 3) It's a VERY small sample size. There are only 26 TOTAL PLAYS listed in that link you provided. 26 plays out of a total of 813 regular season games since 1994! Hell, that's not even a small sample size. 4) The vegas odds that you selected was wrong as well. You put in 4 and PFR's resource had the vegas odds at 3.5 which even by this outdated format bumped the odds up to 40%. (1) irrelevant to larger point (2) irrelevant to larger point (3) 26 > 0 (his and your sample size) (4) completely false. Using 3.5 changes results by 0.5%. Try harder lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Applying "historical numbers" and pretending that they're anything close to accurate for one situation is quite simply asinine. In other words: the Dolphins and Packers, both on the 20, down by 1 with 1:30 left, have the same chance of success. That is absolutely ridiculous. It's not rocket science. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 3 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Applying "historical numbers" and pretending that they're anything close to accurate for one situation is quite simply asinine. In other words: the Dolphins and Packers, both on the 20, down by 1 with 1:30 left, have the same chance of success. That is absolutely ridiculous. It's not rocket science. Providing no better alternative and whining is far more asinine. I've already admitted the limitations of the information available, you've offered nothing remotely intelligent on the subject. Just your whines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, incognito_man said: Providing no better alternative and whining is far more asinine. I've already admitted the limitations of the information available, you've offered nothing remotely intelligent on the subject. Just your whines. Oh. I think you're just confused. See, I said that I felt that number was low. Knowing those limitations, I'm right. I never claimed that I would knew or would come up with the exact percentage for that team in that scenario, nor do I care to... I just (correctly) pointed out that applying "historical numbers" to that situation is absurd. My "better alternative" is that, with Prater and Stafford, their chance of success in that situation is higher than your nonsense. If it were Rodgers under center, it would be even higher than that. Us lay people call this "common sense". You rocket scientists call it "whining". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnar Danneskjold Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 (edited) 15 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: That is absolutely, utterly, and adorably false. He has made three 60+ yard field goals in his career. Lets see if you're capable of answering questions: do you feel that Prater is one of the best distance field goal kickers in NFL history? Good god man. He made a 64 yd field goal in 2013 against the Titans in mile high stadium. It is his only FG over 60 yds in regular season games while in the NFL. Do you ever tell the truth? Edited October 17, 2019 by Ragnar Danneskjold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said: Good god man. He made a 64 yd field goal in 2013 against the Titans in mile high stadium. It is his only FG over 60 yds while in the NFL. Do you ever tell the truth? It's always my intention. I found a source that listed two other 60+ FGs. Yes, he made those, but I was not aware at the time that they were in the preseason. My point still stands: Prater is one of the best distance kickers in NFL history. Take a deep breath. It's not always some wild conspiracy theory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBURGE Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Let this thread die people 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnar Danneskjold Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: It's always my intention. I found a source that listed two other 60+ FGs. Yes, he made those, but I was not aware at the time that they were in the preseason. My point still stands: Prater is one of the best distance kickers in NFL history. Take a deep breath. It's not always some wild conspiracy theory. I am breathing fine, and I am not suggesting conspiracy. I just find it funny that you are still beating the drum, despite the concession of almost everybody that it was a bad call. Now you are going down the rabbit hole of what the odds of Detroit winning the game would be if the call wasn't made. Stafford hadn't been able to move the ball the entire second half, but using whole league odds are "confused" because he is so much better than that. Yes Prater is a good kicker. Yes the Lions might have had a chance to win. Sucks that the call was bad. Really sucks that it ended the game. No, there is no way to undo it. At some point though, Lions fans need to admit that despite all of that, the Lions let an underperforming Packers team hang around, within reach, without taking control of the game and putting it away. Surviving bad calls is part of football. It is not like it kept you from the Super Bowl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said: I am breathing fine, and I am not suggesting conspiracy. I just find it funny that you are still beating the drum, despite the concession of almost everybody that it was a bad call. Now you are going down the rabbit hole of what the odds of Detroit winning the game would be if the call wasn't made. Stafford hadn't been able to move the ball the entire second half, but using whole league odds are "confused" because he is so much better than that. Yes Prater is a good kicker. Yes the Lions might have had a chance to win. Sucks that the call was bad. Really sucks that it ended the game. No, there is no way to undo it. At some point though, Lions fans need to admit that despite all of that, the Lions let an underperforming Packers team hang around, within reach, without taking control of the game and putting it away. Surviving bad calls is part of football. It is not like it kept you from the Super Bowl. This is the most confusing part of how you seem to view a football discussion forum. I no longer care about the outcome. I'm a Lions' fan: we don't have a seat reserved for us in the playoffs. Finishing 8-8 is an accomplishment. We've grown to view the draft as our personal Super Bowl. The outcome of this game - and, really, this season - is borderline irrelevant to me. I'm here, on a football discussion forum, to discuss football. Win probabilities, bad calls, questionable plays... this is all part of that discussion. Others join in that discussion, throwing their ideas and opinions out there. That's good. That's what this place is designed for. You, on the other hand, see people talking - on a football discussion forum - and ask them why they're discussing things. It's just discussion, man. If you don't want to be a part of it, why do you click this thread? If you want it to end, why do you post? Edited October 17, 2019 by TL-TwoWinsAway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 48 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Oh. I think you're just confused. See, I said that I felt that number was low. Knowing those limitations, I'm right. I never claimed that I would knew or would come up with the exact percentage for that team in that scenario, nor do I care to... I just (correctly) pointed out that applying "historical numbers" to that situation is absurd. My "better alternative" is that, with Prater and Stafford, their chance of success in that situation is higher than your nonsense. If it were Rodgers under center, it would be even higher than that. Us lay people call this "common sense". You rocket scientists call it "whining". The thing about fractions is that there is a top AND a bottom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnar Danneskjold Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Just now, TL-TwoWinsAway said: This is the most confusing part of how you seem to view a football discussion forum. I no longer care about the outcome. I'm a Lions' fan: we don't have a seat reserved for us in the playoffs. Finishing 8-8 is an accomplishment. We've grown to view the draft as our personal Super Bowl. The outcome of this game - and, really, this season - is borderline irrelevant to me. I'm here, on a football discussion forum, to discuss football. Win probabilities, bad calls, questionable plays... this is all part of that discussion. Others join in that discussion, throwing their ideas and opinions out there. That's good. That's what this place is designed for. You, on the other hand, see people talking - on a football discussion forum - and ask them why they're discussing things. It's just discussion, man. If you don't want to be a part of it, why do you click this thread? If you want it to end, why do you post? I didn't say I wanted it to end, that was JBERGE. I would like you to admit that the Lions bear some responsibility for their fate, which you seem to ignore over and over again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said: I didn't say I wanted it to end, that was JBERGE. I would like you to admit that the Lions bear some responsibility for their fate, which you seem to ignore over and over again. What? I've never ignored that. I've acknowledged that they didn't do enough with the ball, especially in the second half. I also don't feel that the Packers did significantly more. I don't believe that one team outplayed the other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 41 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: This is the most confusing part of how you seem to view a football discussion forum. I no longer care about the outcome. I'm a Lions' fan: we don't have a seat reserved for us in the playoffs. Finishing 8-8 is an accomplishment. We've grown to view the draft as our personal Super Bowl. The outcome of this game - and, really, this season - is borderline irrelevant to me. I'm here, on a football discussion forum, to discuss football. Win probabilities, bad calls, questionable plays... this is all part of that discussion. Others join in that discussion, throwing their ideas and opinions out there. That's good. That's what this place is designed for. You, on the other hand, see people talking - on a football discussion forum - and ask them why they're discussing things. It's just discussion, man. If you don't want to be a part of it, why do you click this thread? If you want it to end, why do you post? I think it's fair to say that yes, Prater is one of the best long-distance kickers in NFL history (84.3% on 50+ yard FGAs according to http://pfref.com/tiny/wGX7f), but that no, he doesn't kick 60+ yard FGs with regularity. If the 30.49% is the generic average - but like he said there is no input for timeouts and the Lions had 0 - then I think that's a pretty fair percentage. Yes, Prater is a great long-distance kicker, but the Lions also had trouble moving the ball in the 2nd half. They hadn't had a drive over 40 yards since the 1st quarter, and they would need to get about that many yards in 90 seconds to give Prater a good chance (57-yard FGA if you get to opponent's 40). All are factors that can sway that percentage up and down a bit, which I agree with you should probably be done. But I don't think it would sway it that much. Maybe, maybe it would get to 33%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 34 minutes ago, childofpudding said: I think it's fair to say that yes, Prater is one of the best long-distance kickers in NFL history (84.3% on 50+ yard FGAs according to http://pfref.com/tiny/wGX7f), but that no, he doesn't kick 60+ yard FGs with regularity. If the 30.49% is the generic average - but like he said there is no input for timeouts and the Lions had 0 - then I think that's a pretty fair percentage. Yes, Prater is a great long-distance kicker, but the Lions also had trouble moving the ball in the 2nd half. They hadn't had a drive over 40 yards since the 1st quarter, and they would need to get about that many yards in 90 seconds to give Prater a good chance (57-yard FGA if you get to opponent's 40). All are factors that can sway that percentage up and down a bit, which I agree with you should probably be done. But I don't think it would sway it that much. Maybe, maybe it would get to 33%? Context must also be applied to the second half. The Lions were playing with a lead for the entire game. Early, they had no problem passing the ball. Their need to take chances on medium and deep passes was significantly reduced with a late lead. This season, the Lions have been successful throwing medium and deep passes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 28 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Context must also be applied to the second half. The Lions were playing with a lead for the entire game. Early, they had no problem passing the ball. Their need to take chances on medium and deep passes was significantly reduced with a late lead. This season, the Lions have been successful throwing medium and deep passes. I don't think that's really good context, and besides, it's not true. According to this play-by-play link, the Lions threw more deep passes in the 2nd half (5) than in the 1st half (3). The Lions weren't ahead by more than one score from the 2nd quarter on aside from like 3 minutes in the 4th. To say they had no reason to take chances on medium and deep passes is silly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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