Can Anyone Imagine This Playing Out?

[G08]

Just now, WindyCity said:

Mitch ran a lot of shotgun, spread, RPO concepts at UNC, that is what we run here, or at least try to run when our QB is not falling over himself. This is not a guy that had to re-learn how to walk.

You have to understand the offenses are completely different -- night and day different. The verbiage, the plays, the adjustments within the plays, etc. Just because they do shotgun or spread doesn't mean, at all, that it is even remotely similar. 

It's like saying I can handle a Ferrari on the Autobahn because I can handle a Ford Escort on the Kennedy in gridlocked traffic. 

[WindyCity]

2 minutes ago, G08 said:

His entire production in this offense does not suck. His performance this year, thus far, sucks. 

We have come full-circle so I'll repeat my stance: I'm giving him the remainder of this season to show improvement/development in this offense. 

I have no idea what is going to happen but I am rooting for the kid. 

Here is my problem.

Even if he has some success in this dumbed down I formation version of the offense what does that really tell us? At some point the offense has to move beyond a QB that can run super basic stuff does it not?

[abstract_thought]

There are 2 aspects of Mitch's regression which give me pause:

1. He's had the same tendencies his entire career. The lack of poise in the pocket, poor footwork, and misreading plays have been issues for Mitch throughout his time with the Bears. These issues were evident last season. The hope was that he would stop making the same mistakes.
2. The people around him seem to have lost all confidence in him. We've seen QBs (e.g. Dak Prescott) have down years early on. But most of them still looked like NFL caliber QBs even while struggling and their coaches allowed them to work through individual issues with mechanics or decision-making. When I hear that Nagy is worried about Mitch's body language it tells me the organization has lost confidence in its ability to correct Mitch's play.

[WindyCity]

Just now, G08 said:

You have to understand the offenses are completely different -- night and day different. The verbiage, the plays, the adjustments within the plays, etc. Just because they do shotgun or spread doesn't mean, at all, that it is even remotely similar. 

It's like saying I can handle a Ferrari on the Autobahn because I can handle a Ford Escort on the Kennedy in gridlocked traffic. 

The same things your saying about the spread apply to the air raid.

Kingsbury and Riley do not run the same plays, have the same checks, the same verbiage. Pretty much everyone has marveled at how much Kingsbury has changed to adapt to the NFL level. They are a run first team which never happens in the Air Raid.

"Just because they do air raid doesn't mean, at all, that it is even remotely similar."

[WindyCity]

Discredit the plethora of young QBs who have not struggled for 3 years. Compare Trubisky, out of context, to other QBs who have not been superstars by year 3, when he is struggling to be playable.

But hold up Alex Smith and Drew Brees as the 2 positive examples in a sea of negative ones.

For every Alex Smith and Drew Brees there are

-10 guys who got it right away or faster than 3 years

-20 guys who never got it and busted out

 

They are the exception not the rule and the odds do not favor Mitch. I am pretty sure TB and Tennessee fans have been holding up Alex Smith and Drew Brees to keep themselves from having to admit some hard truths.

[G08]

16 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Here is my problem.

Even if he has some success in this dumbed down I formation version of the offense what does that really tell us? At some point the offense has to move beyond a QB that can run super basic stuff does it not?

I mean that's tough to say. I think the "dumbed down I formation" stuff is more to get the run game going, which it did. 

If Nagy thinks by the end of this season Trubisky cannot succeed in his offense and he can't work with him, you cut bait and move on. 

[G08]

19 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

The same things your saying about the spread apply to the air raid.

Kingsbury and Riley do not run the same plays, have the same checks, the same verbiage. Pretty much everyone has marveled at how much Kingsbury has changed to adapt to the NFL level. They are a run first team which never happens in the Air Raid.

"Just because they do air raid doesn't mean, at all, that it is even remotely similar."

They brought in Kingsbury because he runs the air raid and drafted Murray for that system. A system is different from "shotgun". Windy, you are killing me today. Killing me. 

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, G08 said:

Well... Rodgers is a Hall of Fame QB with 182 games of experience prior to this season. Still, if you look at his first 4 to 6 games in this system , he put up pedestrian numbers (compared to his history). 92.8 rating (easiest metric I can give you right now without typing out all the stats). 

Mahomes is a freak, outlier. I loved him coming out of Texas Tech, as did @Sugashane. What he did and is doing is not normal.

Big Ben... Have you looked at his career in the NFL? 87.9 rating his first three seasons before he exploded year 4 (again, using QB rating as a quick reference point for a season's worth of statistics). 

Matt Ryan... same thing: first 8 years produced a 90.9 rating. 

I still think Tru can turn kit around, but it won't be in Chicago with Nagy. I think he gets to develop elsewhere, if he is smart he will take a small deal to go to learn under Reid, McDaniels, Payton, or someone similar. Seems like a good kid but just is at the end of his rope here. Would be odd to see Tru backing up Mahomes though. lol

[G08]

27 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Discredit the plethora of young QBs who have not struggled for 3 years. Compare Trubisky, out of context, to other QBs who have not been superstars by year 3, when he is struggling to be playable.

But hold up Alex Smith and Drew Brees as the 2 positive examples in a sea of negative ones.

For every Alex Smith and Drew Brees there are

-10 guys who got it right away or faster than 3 years

-20 guys who never got it and busted out

 

They are the exception not the rule and the odds do not favor Mitch. I am pretty sure TB and Tennessee fans have been holding up Alex Smith and Drew Brees to keep themselves from having to admit some hard truths.

How many different schemes/different coordinators did Mariota suffer?  

Why do you just presume every QB is the same? Are they robots? QBs develop at their own rate and some don't ever develop. Trubisky has to put up or shut up the remainder of this season. 

I really feel like you are reaching at this point. 

Edited November 1, 2019 by G08

[topwop1]

2 minutes ago, G08 said:

How many different schemes/different coordinators did Mariota suffer?  

I really feel like you are reaching at this point. 

I can see both sides of this argument.  Yes Mariota has had too many coaches in his brief NFL career but Alex Smith also went through the same thing, and things only really started getting better for him when he left SF.

The thing with Smith is that while he definitely turned out to be alright, they were always looking for his replacement i.e. Kapernick, Mahomes and now Haskins.

[G08]

43 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

I can see both sides of this argument.  Yes Mariota has had too many coaches in his brief NFL career but Alex Smith also went through the same thing, and things only really started getting better for him when he left SF.

The thing with Smith is that while he definitely turned out to be alright, they were always looking for his replacement i.e. Kapernick, Mahomes and now Haskins.

I think the worst thing anyone can do to a QB is never allow him to develop in one system. What we did to Cutler here was textbook quarterback destruction. Don't get me wrong, he was not without his flaws. 

I don't care what the new age "win while your QB is on his rookie contract!" mantra dictates; I've heard enough Hall of Fame coaches and quarterbacks say it takes 3 years to master a professional system. 

Here's a blurb on Watson... Do you think he is running the same exact scheme as Tom Brady? 

"Fast-forward to his arrival in Houston. I worried about how Watson would fit in a Bill O'Brien system that chewed up and spit out veteran quarterbacks. The Texans started eight different quarterbacks in O'Brien's first three seasons at the helm, with the coach showing little patience for mistake-prone play. In addition, Houston's scheme wasn't necessarily quarterback-friendly, based on the complex post-snap reads that require the thrower and his pass catchers to be on the same page. Given all of the moving parts, I didn't believe the scheme was ideally suited to Watson's game and I didn't think O'Brien was flexible enough to tweak his scheme to suit his young QB1's talents. The coach had never shown that kind of flexibility before, so didn't think he was amenable to retooling his scheme around a rookie. 

I was wrong. 

O'Brien has not only revamped the Texans' offense to help Watson excel, but he has basically made the team's offense look like an NFL version of Clemson's attack. The Texans are running some of the staple concepts that were featured in the Tigers' playbook during Watson's college days and the young quarterback has flourished as a result. Whether it's the quick game from spread/empty formations or the designed quarterback runs near the goal line, the Texans have blended several college concepts into their traditional system. This has not only made Watson comfortable, but it has made the Texans a scoring machine."

[G08]

I think that plays a role in why a lot of these rookie and young QBs are finding success. They are not learning a brand new offense from the ground up, they're being eased in by incorporating what they knew in college. 

Again, this is simply reality for some QBs. 

"Well what about Mahomes?"

How 2nd year QBs won MVP in the history of the NFL? That's an outlier, not the norm. 

 

[soulman]

5 hours ago, WindyCity said:

That isn't realistic because QBs do not take 3 years to announce themselves.

That is a GM cliche to buy themselves time.

If you suck in year 3, you probably just suck unless you are Drew Brees or Alex Smith.

You just gave two good example of guys whose careers flourished after year three with new teams.

So exactly how does that prove your point?  It can happen provided the QB has any talent to begin with.

[soulman]

2 hours ago, G08 said:

I mean that's tough to say. I think the "dumbed down I formation" stuff is more to get the run game going, which it did. 

If Nagy thinks by the end of this season Trubisky cannot succeed in his offense and he can't work with him, you cut bait and move on. 

And that is very likely to be one of the first things discussed by Pace and Nagy the day after the season ends.

But cutting bait an moving one will require a full blown plan on how to manage it.  We have no other starting caliber QB under contract for 2020 so we'll need to get one at the very least and probably draft another one early enough to feel we have a live prospect.

So I don't expect much change in Mitch's situation until that's been plotted out.  I still think they'll keep him through 2020 no matter what unless somehow a rookie proves he can handle backup to whoever else we may get and Pace gets a decent trade offer for Mitch.

[WindyCity]

12 minutes ago, soulman said:

You just gave two good example of guys whose careers flourished after year three with new teams.

So exactly how does that prove your point?  It can happen provided the QB has any talent to begin with.

Serious exception. Far more busts than success stories.