MacReady Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Just now, Haha21 said: Have my first fantasy football draft today. Who should I take at 5? I'm leaning toward Julio if he is there. It's been a while since I've played fantasy football, but isn't taking a receiver with your first pick a pretty bad idea? I've never lost a fantasy season I've cared about and I've gone exclusively QB with my first pick. Gotta think Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan, and Carr all have more value than Julio when considering there are probably 32 receivers who will have 1,000 yards this season, but there are probably only 8-12 quarterbacks who will have 4,000 yard seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralFC Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Julio or Evans. I think Evans has a strong argument over Julio for the 5th pick. Contract season, too, plus a developing relationship with Jameis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackyAttacky Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said: It's been a while since I've played fantasy football, but isn't taking a receiver with your first pick a pretty bad idea? I've never lost a fantasy season I've cared about and I've gone exclusively QB with my first pick. Gotta think Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan, and Carr all have more value than Julio when considering there are probably 32 receivers who will have 1,000 yards this season, but there are probably only 8-12 quarterbacks who will have 4,000 yard seasons. Too many good QBs, unless you are in a 16 team league or a two 2 QB league. One of the problems I have in my leagues is QBs have almost become the last guys off the board, other than K, or defense. Julio is perfect at 5 IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haha21 Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said: It's been a while since I've played fantasy football, but isn't taking a receiver with your first pick a pretty bad idea? I've never lost a fantasy season I've cared about and I've gone exclusively QB with my first pick. Gotta think Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan, and Carr all have more value than Julio when considering there are probably 32 receivers who will have 1,000 yards this season, but there are probably only 8-12 quarterbacks who will have 4,000 yard seasons. Over the years that philosophy has changed. Last year it was the elite WRs going at the top of the 1st round (AB, Odel, Julio) but after the breakout from the running backs (David Johnson, Bell, Elliot) the running backs are going first this year. With the exception of Brady and Rodgers I don't expect any other QBs to go in round one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackyAttacky Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Just now, Haha21 said: Over the years that philosophy has changed. Last year it was the elite WRs going at the top of the 1st round (AB, Odel, Julio) but after the breakout from the running backs (David Johnson, Bell, Elliot) the running backs are going first this year. With the exception of Brady and Rodgers I don't expect any other QBs to go in round one. There is easily ten good fantasy QB this year lots of young guys emerging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Changes aren't always a good thing. The logic is still really, really bad. Even if you take a receiver, Julio Jones is a bad pick at 5. Even if you're in a league where you get points for receptions, Julio's best season (136 catches, 1800 yards and 8 touchdowns) would get you 364 fantasy points, Jordy Nelson's last would get you 63 less points for the year. In points per catch leagues, Nelson's last five seasons would have gotten you: 301 points 326 points 263 166 278 1334 fantasy points in past 5 seasons played. Compare that with Julio's last 5 seasons 259 364 290 111 249 1273 fantasy points in past 5 seasons played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haha21 Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 8 minutes ago, CentralFC said: Julio or Evans. I think Evans has a strong argument over Julio for the 5th pick. Contract season, too, plus a developing relationship with Jameis. I see the argument for Evans. He is a target fiend and huge redzone threat. Even with the additions of Desean Jackson and OJ Howard I still expect Evans to be the WR1 in Tampa. Can you believe that Julio has only scored 22 TDs over the last four seasons? That is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Just now, PackyAttacky said: There is easily ten good fantasy QB this year lots of young guys emerging. Simple question, is there more value after the top 10 receivers or is there more value after the top ten quarterbacks? I could list 30 receivers likely to score 250 fantasy points this year. Where is this league? Who is playing with this kind of logic? Anyone for money? I'll bet Julio Jones doesn't produce top 5 receiver points this year in fantasy football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackyAttacky Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 (edited) 3 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said: Simple question, is there more value after the top 10 receivers or is there more value after the top ten quarterbacks? I could list 30 receivers likely to score 250 fantasy points this year. Where is this league? Who is playing with this kind of logic? Anyone for money? I'll bet Julio Jones doesn't produce top 5 receiver points this year in fantasy football. Who wouldn't take that bet? He is easily considered top five fantasy WR. Plays in a divsison that is going to be a lot of shoot-outs. Every league I play in is standard scoring, PPR. One thing we talked about making QBs more valuable is making their TDs back to six points or as I was reading oline making them into a flex spot, which a few leagues are doing called Superflex, makes people draft QBs higher. Oh and there is tons of value after the top ten QBs, but you play at least 3 WRs and only one QB, which is were the WRs run goes very quickly. Edited August 26, 2017 by PackyAttacky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 No Bucs offensive players. The curse of Fitzpatrick is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haha21 Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 1 minute ago, HorizontoZenith said: Changes aren't always a good thing. The logic is still really, really bad. Even if you take a receiver, Julio Jones is a bad pick at 5. Even if you're in a league where you get points for receptions, Julio's best season (136 catches, 1800 yards and 8 touchdowns) would get you 364 fantasy points, Jordy Nelson's last would get you 63 less points for the year. In points per catch leagues, Nelson's last five seasons would have gotten you: 301 points 326 points 263 166 278 1334 fantasy points in past 5 seasons played. Compare that with Julio's last 5 seasons 259 364 290 111 249 1273 fantasy points in past 5 seasons played. The numbers don't lie, thanks for the breakdown. I know that the Falcons OC, Steve Sarkisian said he is going to make a concerted effort to get Julio the ball in the redzone more, so we will see if that comes to fruition. As far as quarterbacks, you can get a very productive quarterback (Cousins, Carr, Prescott) after the 10th round in a lot of drafts. If Rodgers or Brady were to fall to my second or third round pick I would take them. If their gone though I plan on loading up on WR/RB and draft a QB late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackyAttacky Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Haha21 said: The numbers don't lie, thanks for the breakdown. I know that the Falcons OC, Steve Sarkisian said he is going to make a concerted effort to get Julio the ball in the redzone more, so we will see if that comes to fruition. As far as quarterbacks, you can get a very productive quarterback (Cousins, Carr, Prescott) after the 10th round in a lot of drafts. If Rodgers or Brady were to fall to my second or third round pick I would take them. If their gone though I plan on loading up on WR/RB and draft a QB late. Unless it is a 16 team league this is the plan going forward. I want to make QBs more valuable but in every league it gets shot down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Are interceptions still worth -2 points? Are 25 passing yards still a point? Are passing touchdowns still worth 6? Rushing touchdowns 6? Rushing yards 10? If so, you have to look at the drop off from the top tier to the second tier. I've already shown Julio/Nelson (top tier versus second tier). Based on last year, a top tier receiver versus a second tier receiver is a drop off of 42 points. Let's say top tier receiver versus second tier receiver is worth a drop of 50 fantasy points. Now let's compare the top tier (Brady/Rodgers/Ryan/Brees) to second tier (Cousins/Prescott). Since we're talking about the 5th pick, we'll compare Ryan/Rodgers to Cousins/Prescott (since Brady's season was 12 games last year). Rodgers - 455 Ryan - 418 Cousins - 349 Prescott - 332 Rodgers - Cousins = 106 fantasy point differential Ryan - Prescott = 86 fantasy points differential So you're looking at a 50 point disparity between top and second tier receivers and a 100 point disparity between top and second tier quarterbacks. As it is in football, the numbers don't lie. Receivers are overvalued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackyAttacky Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 13 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said: Are interceptions still worth -2 points? Are 25 passing yards still a point? Are passing touchdowns still worth 6? Rushing touchdowns 6? Rushing yards 10? If so, you have to look at the drop off from the top tier to the second tier. I've already shown Julio/Nelson (top tier versus second tier). Based on last year, a top tier receiver versus a second tier receiver is a drop off of 42 points. Let's say top tier receiver versus second tier receiver is worth a drop of 50 fantasy points. Now let's compare the top tier (Brady/Rodgers/Ryan/Brees) to second tier (Cousins/Prescott). Since we're talking about the 5th pick, we'll compare Ryan/Rodgers to Cousins/Prescott (since Brady's season was 12 games last year). Rodgers - 455 Ryan - 418 Cousins - 349 Prescott - 332 Rodgers - Cousins = 106 fantasy point differential Ryan - Prescott = 86 fantasy points differential So you're looking at a 50 point disparity between top and second tier receivers and a 100 point disparity between top and second tier quarterbacks. As it is in football, the numbers don't lie. Receivers are overvalued. No, every league I have ever played in passing TDs are 4, rushing and receiving are 6. There is going to be a drop off but the fact that you need 3 WRs versus one QB is where people want to draft WR early and wait on a QB. https://www.forbes.com/sites/zachpetersel/2017/08/24/fantasy-football-rankings-12-ppr-top-100-big-board/#4e366ecc5b85 Quote ait on Quarterback. These are luxury picks. As elite as Rodgers, Brady and Brees are, the difference between QB6 (Dak Prescott) and QB15 (Joe Flacco) last season in my league was 42 points. Less than three points per week. On average, the sixth quarterback this year is being drafted at the end of the sixth round. The 15th QB is being taken in the 10th. Get your high upside RBs and WRs, then be the last person in your league to take a QB. You won't regret it. If you wait you can get a good QB in round four or five, WRs and RBs will picking over bones and scraps at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackyAttacky Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Quote Supply and demand Quarterback is usually a onesie position, in that most leagues only require owners to start one. Most owners will only draft one quarterback, freeing up another roster spot for a running back or receiver. This creates a surplus of available quarterbacks, which lowers demand and causes good, productive passers to fall into the double-digit rounds on draft day. If the late-round gem doesn’t work out due to injury or poor play, in most leagues it’s possible to stream the position, which is the practice of using the waiver wire to pick up a player with a good matchup in any given week. This player could be dropped in the following week if his matchup or outlook is not as good as another player on the waiver wire. In traditional one-quarterback formats, it’s an easy, lucrative strategy to employ, and helps keep quarterback values low. https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/08/24/fantasy-football-2017-wait-your-quarterback Hope this helps, I see where you are coming from and that is part of the fun of fantasy is everybody doing their own thing. But the last 3-4 years the first three-four rounds are dominated by WRs and RBs. 1 or 2 QBS will go. Look at it like R1 WR + R4 QB=more points R1 QB = R4 WR= less points I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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