Week 11 GDT - Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

[John232]

I'm watching the full game now, i'll post thoughts after. But the lil john song where he repeatedly screams ":shots" is playing in my head, but it's not shots, it's drops. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

The run game in the last six games post MNF Cleveland explosion:

Rushes 195

Yards 690

YPA 3.5

Now, I didn't take out the kneel downs, but you get the main point. THIS is why it has been repeated by many of us that our run game has been pretty trash since the Cleveland game. And this takes into consideration where we ran for 232 yards against Carolina on 38 rushes for a 6.1 YPA. 

So we can stop saying this is a team that has been winning off the run game or our run game is so good. Sorry, but you have a six game stretch like this, you can no longer claim to be a top notch running team regardless of how many YPG we average. We just had two really good rush games in the first four weeks and after that people ran with the idea this is an elite running team. 

[John232]

Just finished watching the game:

Offense:

• Jimmy G: Probably one of the best games i've seen from Jimmy from an accuracy stand-point. Outside of his one bad read on the Hicks INT, he maybe only had 4 or 5 bad passes. A couple high ones to Bourne and Samuel, the behind pass to Dwelley for a tip INT and the swing pass to Coleman. Outside of that, he was dropping dimes in a game where had to throw A LOT.  The first half was just dominated by drops, really frustrating start. But Jimmy G still has a real issue with predetermined passes(sometimes by design) and the high and fast inaccurate ball and it's getting him into trouble on a weekly basis. That said, he is one tough SOB and is absolutely fearless. It's probably why I get so pissed off at him, he consistently shows some absolutely special qualities;clutch play, incredible timing, pocket toughness, presence and navigation, touch throws and just pure moxy and magic when it counts. So it's just that much more frustrating when he makes boneheaded decisions or he just blatantly misses guys. As I said last week, I'm not off the Jimmy G train, but I really want to see him start stringing together multiple games where he doesn't get TO and still produces through the air.  I know he's a pure gun slinger,  but if he can get the TO issue under control, I don't think there's a team that can beat us in the NFC.
• Pass protection was really rough this game, but they were great in other aspects. The screen game was beautiful today and I hope we see a lot more of it. But I can't shake the feeling that we're going to end up drafting or signing and IOL guy to replace Person. Person is solid, but there's just so many instances where that right side is too easily stacked. 
• Drops were really bad, but Deebo, Dwelley and Juice were life savers this game. Jimmy is really starting to look for Deebo too,
• Really want to see Juice incorporated like he was today, he's probably one of the best players on our team when the ball is in his hands. 
• Tackle play was rough all game, not sure if McGlnichey is 100% or if there was some complacency issues from  him to begin with, but he hasn't really turned a corner this year. Skule also seemed to have a rough game too. 
• Mosert had the really bad drop, but he's just consistently improved year to year. I think I like him a little bit more than Coleman as a pure runner. 
   

Defense:

• Not a great game by the defense, but when you consider the circumstances, still really happy with the performance. 
• One thing that immediately jumped out to me was the hustle by everyone defense. Moore, Bosa, Buckner, Armstead all had multiple plays where they made tackles 10+ yards down the field. 
• Greenlaw has been a really good find. He's not Kwon, but I wouldn't be surprised if we let Kwon go (when the money is right) to give Greenlaw the job. He's stepped up in a big way.
• Lee is a solid backup, but still got "got" on a couple of plays. Just a little late to the ball too, but still had some nice plays too. The range from our LBers is really nice, Drake isn't a bum and they did a pretty good job sticking with him wide.
• Defensive Line is really the catalyst for the defense. Already mentioned the hustle, but they are constantly in the backfield. It's finally great to see this unit as a whole just dominate week in and week out. Don't think this week was all that different.
• Not a great game for the secondary, not horrible though. Tartt had a good game, Ward was solid, Mosely got beat a couple times but was still ok. Sherm might actually be the weak link of the secondary which is crazy because he's been solid all year.
• Bosa didn't make a ton of noise in the pass-rush department, but he really is the total package. He was stuffing runs from start to finish. 

 

 

Fun game to watch and it was a great game when you consider the circumstances; short week, injuries left and right, horrible officiating and most of all..Arizona isn't a bad team anymore.Kyler, Kliff and the skill position players are really well coached and explosive. They are going to be a problem for a while. Rams might actually have the worst future out of all the teams int he NFCW.

[Forge]

2 hours ago, oldman9er said:

 

 

... and speaking of DEPTH !!!!!

 

 

Oscar stealing some of the stuff I was going to talk about on the podcast with this touchdown

[Forge]

33 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

The run game in the last six games post MNF Cleveland explosion:

Rushes 195

Yards 690

YPA 3.5

Now, I didn't take out the kneel downs, but you get the main point. THIS is why it has been repeated by many of us that our run game has been pretty trash since the Cleveland game. And this takes into consideration where we ran for 232 yards against Carolina on 38 rushes for a 6.1 YPA. 

So we can stop saying this is a team that has been winning off the run game or our run game is so good. Sorry, but you have a six game stretch like this, you can no longer claim to be a top notch running team regardless of how many YPG we average. We just had two really good rush games in the first four weeks and after that people ran with the idea this is an elite running team. 

I started getting nervous about it during the Washington game. They were the inferior offense going against a superior defense, yet they were still more effective running the football . 

[J-ALL-DAY]

5 minutes ago, Forge said:

I started getting nervous about it during the Washington game. They were the inferior offense going against a superior defense, yet they were still more effective running the football . 

Teams are just stacking the box a lot more and truthfully, there is also a HUGE drop off between Skule and Staley in the run game. And in a lot of the weeks we have been without Juice Check. But even when we had him and Staley, the Seattle game wasn't good either.

Anyways, Barnwell commented on our run game and the stacked boxes:

Quote

On a macro level, it's becoming clear that teams are willing to sell out to stop San Francisco's running game and dare Garoppolo to beat them, a sign that they don't see him as the biggest threat the 49ers can offer. Despite getting out to an early 10-0 lead, the Cardinals ran eight men or more into the box on eight of San Francisco's 19 running plays Sunday; that 42.1% rate was the fourth-highest in the league. Since the 49ers ran the ball for 232 yards and five touchdowns in that blowout win over the Panthers, they've collectively run the ball 77 times for just 222 yards and no touchdowns. Kyle Shanahan's offense has generated first downs on just 10.4% of their runs over that time frame, the lowest mark in the league, while facing run defenses that rank 18th (Seahawks) and 21st (Cardinals) in DVOA.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28103551/making-sense-2019-nfc-playoff-race-eight-good-teams-six-spots#sf

Until proven otherwise, this team will only win games offensively off the arm of Jimmy G. Can't expect the run game to be good, especially with all the stacked boxes it will be facing.

[oldman9er]

25 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Until proven otherwise, this team will only win games offensively off the arm of Jimmy G. Can't expect the run game to be good, especially with all the stacked boxes it will be facing.

Doesn't make me uncomfortable. Jimmy's the real deal.. and this team is strong enough to absorb his 2 wtf? passes per game. 

Gets a bit less cozy with no Kittle and Sanders... but still.. seems we can win against many opponents even without those two.

I never expected this team to average a crazy rush avr. or 150+ on the ground yds each game. The idea is to just know that they are ABLE to, if opponents are not careful (honest).They clearly know it now, and have greatly overcompensated.. so now, we show them we can beat em just in the air too, if they go back to dishonest.. and we show em without our top 2 pass weapons. 

Defenses play us honest, and we can mix it up quite well. The threat of breaking a long run with these backs we have is real. The threat of Jimmy converting plenty of 3rd downs is real. That defense is real. 

We just getting started. 

[John232]

10 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

Doesn't make me uncomfortable. Jimmy's the real deal.. and this team is strong enough to absorb his 2 wtf? passes per game. 

Gets a bit less cozy with no Kittle and Sanders... but still.. seems we can win against many opponents even without those two.

I never expected this team to average a crazy rush avr. or 150+ on the ground yds each game. The idea is to just know that they are ABLE to, if opponents are not careful (honest).They clearly know it now, and have greatly overcompensated.. so now, we show them we can beat em just in the air too, if they go back to dishonest.. and we show em without our top 2 pass weapons. 

Defenses play us honest, and we can mix it up quite well. The threat of breaking a long run with these backs we have is real. The threat of Jimmy converting plenty of 3rd downs is real. That defense is real. 

We just getting started. 

I brought this up last week after the Seattle game, but Jimmy has extremely similar numbers to Matt Ryan in his first year under Shanahan. That's not to say he'll become Matt Ryan without a doubt. But once Jimmy can really start seeing the whole field, get on the same page with his receivers (more often than not, appears to be his receivers fault) and gets consistent-ish protection (not sure he needs that even), I wouldn't be surprised to see the WTF passes go away. He'll still have his high and hard passes that bounce, just a product of a gun slinger who rather rush a throw in the face of pressure, than take a sack. But if he can get rid of the weird throws that fly right at defenders once/twice a game, he's going to start putting up huge numbers.

 

He just HAS to take that next step. 

[oldman9er]

2 minutes ago, John232 said:

once Jimmy can really start seeing the whole field, get on the same page with his receivers (more often than not, appears to be his receivers fault) and gets consistent-ish protection (not sure he needs that even), I wouldn't be surprised to see the WTF passes go away. He'll still have his high and hard passes that bounce, just a product of a gun slinger who rather rush a throw in the face of pressure, than take a sack. But if he can get rid of the weird throws that fly right at defenders once/twice a game, he's going to start putting up huge numbers.

 

He just HAS to take that next step. 

Oh, easily agree that some of these wtf? plays can be minimized via his comfort in scheme, and further work with the receivers.

The last sentence... eh, i dunno that it does HAVE to happen. Sure would be nice to happen.. make decisive winning more decisive.. could cost us a swim-or-sink game.. but I don't think other good QBs are clean on this either. They take their chances and throw some close INTs that whizz by defenders' ears or bounce off hands. That's just the game.. a game of split seconds and inches. 

 

[John232]

20 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

Oh, easily agree that some of these wtf? plays can be minimized via his comfort in scheme, and further work with the receivers.

The last sentence... eh, i dunno that it does HAVE to happen. Sure would be nice to happen.. make decisive winning more decisive.. could cost us a swim-or-sink game.. but I don't think other good QBs are clean on this either. They take their chances and throw some close INTs that whizz by defenders' ears or bounce off hands. That's just the game.. a game of split seconds and inches. 

 

That's fair. Brady and Manning come to mind as two guys who are always due for a massive WTF interception in their primes as gun slingers. I think in my head, the "huge" numbers are huge in massive efficiency spikes. That's the thing that stood out to me with those 2106 Falcons, They just rarely beat themselves on offense. Matt Ryan was special that year and I think Jimmy G can be at the level pretty consistently, much like Ryan has.. 

[oldman9er]

 

[oldman9er]

#keepfingdoubtingthisdudeftw

[John232]

So salty I got out bud for Deebo in my auction draft this past summer. 
 

I sometimes have fantasies about what Shanahan could do with a Kamara, CMC or Barkley. 

 

[rudyZ]

11 hours ago, oldman9er said:

 

Glad to see Jimmy finally get the respect he deserves and make it onto a list with Matt Schaub. Rock on.

[rudyZ]

4 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

The run game in the last six games post MNF Cleveland explosion:

Rushes 195

Yards 690

YPA 3.5

Now, I didn't take out the kneel downs, but you get the main point. THIS is why it has been repeated by many of us that our run game has been pretty trash since the Cleveland game. And this takes into consideration where we ran for 232 yards against Carolina on 38 rushes for a 6.1 YPA. 

So we can stop saying this is a team that has been winning off the run game or our run game is so good. Sorry, but you have a six game stretch like this, you can no longer claim to be a top notch running team regardless of how many YPG we average. We just had two really good rush games in the first four weeks and after that people ran with the idea this is an elite running team. 

 

Once again, I think our offense will adapt to do what it needs in order to win. When we had success running the ball, opponents have adapted and forced us to throw it more, and guess what, we kept doing well. Now, opponents might try selling out in order to stop the pass, and the running game will find ways. I'm not seeing Kyle abandon one or the other. He just does what works, and what is needed to win. So far, it has worked 90% of the time. Pretty good.