Weekly Bets Thread

[N4L]

I have a large futures bet on the raiders to win less than 7.5 games. They are 2pt favorites against Denver (Den ML is +125). 

Should I hedge? 

[SmittyBacall]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

I have a large futures bet on the raiders to win less than 7.5 games. They are 2pt favorites against Denver (Den ML is +125). 

Should I hedge? 

How many units we talking here?

[Broncofan]

Ok a couple of game props are out already ironically SNF most props so we will start in backwards order  …

WEEK 18 SNF

ATS / ML

BUF -3 @ MIA 2U - too many injuries to MIA.   
 

PLAYER PROPS

James Cook O63.5 rush yds DK 2U (FD - 64.5), 90+ rush yds +240 1U DK @ MIA -  MIA losing Chubb hurts the run D and pass rush.   No 2nd alt line by Friday, so will just take 1 X+ alt line as the value is just OK.

Stefon Diggs O60.5 rec yds 2U DK, 90+ rec yds +280 1U DK @ MIA - Diggs missed chunk plays last 2 games otherwise much bigger lines.   MIA injuries & zones he still thrives on.  No 2nd alt line by Friday, so will just take 1 X+ alt line as the value is just OK.

Devon Achane O24.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rev yds +200 1U and 60+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK vs.  BUF  - no Waddle bad OL using Achane in pass game the best fit to help Tua & Tyreek.     

So that’s 9.5U with 3 player props.   

LONGSHOT TD
 

Braxton Berrios +700 DK / +1000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U & River Cracraft +1100 FD / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. BUF - with Waddle likely out again these 2 soak up the extra snaps. 

Latavius Murray +700 / +90000 FD 0.8U / 0.2U & Ty Johnson +1000 FD / +13000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U @ MIA - so many injuries to MIA but Bradley Chubb is a killer to the pass rush AND run D.    The BUF backup RB’s still take the GL work and on DK / Bodog they’re both in the +400 / +500 range so I’m covering both sides here for half-stake each.   It’s such a discrepancy from other books I’m locking it in now.   EDIT SUN 7 PM ET - Lat Murray inactive, bet voids.  

NEW ADDED SUN 730 PM ET Alec Ingold +1600 & Chris Brooks +3700 FD for 0.25U each vs. BUF - with the Lat-Murray bet voiding - it’s likely J-Wilson or Achane but those are the FB and RB3.  At those odds why not.  

That’s it for now; I may add more props but I think TD are done at 2.5U.   So far that's 14U on SNF.

 

WEEK 18 SAT FINAL

ATS/ML: 45-40-1, +5.5U (WK 18 SAT  - 1-0, +1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 155-145, +135.1U (WK 18 SAT - 2-3, +3.4U)

LONGSHOT TD:  39-260, +45.4U (WK 18 SAT- 0-1, -1U), ;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950; WK17 - J-Johnson +550, J-Browning +1100, C-Kolar +1500, J-Love +950 & J-Mundt +1100)

TOTAL - +186.0U (WK1:  +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 - +23.3U; WK18 SAT - +3.4U; 1366U stake so far)

Edited January 8 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

FWIW my SUN daytime slate is likely going to be lower player prop wise as other  than a couple of teams I think I can predict usage I’m likely only sticking to player props where I know their team will go all out.   DET / LAR / SF / BAL / KC / CLE have nothing to play for and lots of good reasons to rest guys.  Ironically it may create better longshot TD odds but that also depends on how sharp the books are.   So for we wait and see outside of SNF.  

Edited January 3 by Broncofan

[adamq]

57 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

FWIW my SUN daytime slate is likely going to be lower player prop wise as other  than a couple of teams I think I can predict usage I’m likely only sticking to player props where I know their team will go all out.   DET / LAR / SF / BAL / KC / CLE have nothing to play for and lots of good reasons to rest guys.  Ironically it may create better longshot TD odds but that also depends on how sharp the books are.   So for we wait and see outside of SNF.  

Brayden Willis is a guy to watch the 49ers. Super athletic rookie TE

[NYRaider]

I have 2U on Texans -1 / 2U on Bills -3 

lost my arse on Texas and Alabama 

[SmittyBacall]

Players with incentive bonuses worth targeting (props):

The Texans can lock up a playoff spot with a win Saturday night against division rival Indianapolis. But that’s not all that’s on the line for Devin Singletary and Dalton Schultz. Schultz will receive a 250K bonus if he gets to 60 receptions this year and he enters week 18 with 54. He’s tallied 6 or more receptions in 3 of his 14 games this year (He missed 2 due to injury in early December) which means his prop should be just under this number creating a great plus-money opportunity to ride w Schultz getting his share of targets.

Devin Singletary also has more than just a playoff appearance on this line. He enters the game against the Colts with 1,026 scrimmage yards. If he gets to 1,100 total yards he’ll earn a quarter-million dollar bonus! He’s rushed for 74+ yards 4 times (all since Week 10) and faces an Indy rushing defense ranked 27th in the league allowing more than 127 yards/game on the ground.

The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t looked like themselves on offense at times this year, but the defense has picked up the slack, allowing less than 18 points/game (third-best mark in the NFL). A big part of their success has been lineman Chris Jones. He was in a contract dispute with the team in the offseason, and the contract they eventually agreed to included a $1.25 million bonus if Jones recorded 10 sacks. Jones has 9.5 so far and, while the Chiefs are locked into the 3-seed in the AFC, you can bet Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will have a few twists and stunts to free up Jones against Chargers offense that allows 2.5 sacks per game.

DeAndre Hopkins said he wanted to sign with a contender last offseason. He joined the Titans and it hasn’t gone as expected with Tennessee in the AFC South basement. Week 18 offers the potential for a silver lining in the form of $750K worth of incentive bonuses. He gets $250K each for reaching 75 receptions (he has 68), 1,050 Yards (he has 1,011) and 8 TDs (he has 6). The Jaguars can win the division by beating the Titans this Sunday, but their defense allows the sixth-most yards through the air, so a porous pass defense and game script may both be Hopkins’ friends. The 39 yards seems very doable, but adding 7 receptions and 2 TDs can make a parlay payout a nice way to wrap up the regular season! He had 3 TDs against the Falcons in late October, so I’m saying there’s a chance, and chucking it to D-Hop sounds like a decent game plan regardless.

Baker Mayfield was viewed as a marginal signing in the offseason and was even in a competition with Kyle Trask for the starting job in training camp. That said, only the most optimistic Bucs fans thought he’d have them in position to win the NFC South. But that’s exactly what they’ll do with a victory Sunday against the Panthers and their league-worst record. Mayfield has led them all season and has already earned some incentives related to staying on the field. His contract includes additional bonuses of $300K each for finishing in the Top 10 in the NFL OR Top 5 in the NFC in a number of categories that are within reach!

With a representative performance he should earn an additional $600K. Mayfield has 28 TD passes, which currently has him tied for fourth in the NFL. His 3,907 passing yards are currently eighth in the NFL and fifth in the NFC. He also sits inside the Top 10 in Passer Rating and Yards Per Attempt, which can earn another $600K, and with an efficient effort on Sunday he has a chance to add another bonus if his Completion% ticks up a bit. Look for Mayfield to throw the Bucs to a division title despite a Panthers pass defense that has been inside the Top 5 in yards allowed all season. Gronk was telling Tampa teammates last year, so you know they heard more than old jokes about Progressive commercials on the practice field this week.

https://theathletic.com/5175302/2024/01/03/contract-incentives-week-18-fantasy-football/

[adamq]

It's too bad he doesn't need 6/7 catches or more yardage

 

[Broncofan]

On 1/2/2024 at 3:52 PM, N4L said:

I have a large futures bet on the raiders to win less than 7.5 games. They are 2pt favorites against Denver (Den ML is +125). 

Should I hedge? 

It's a true 50-50 game IMO.

The Raiders have 3 big edges:

1.  They are better on both sides of the trenches vs. our guys.   That's massive.   Their OL always plays well vs. us in running the ball, and usually in protecting the QB.   Even when it was "just" Maxx Crosby, he absolutely terrorized our T's.    Malcolm Koonce looks like he's ready to be Crosby's Robin, and that's significant.

2.  The Raiders' back 7 and pass D has quietly gone from being a bottom 10 unit in the 1H of the season to a top 12-15 unit at worst in the 2H.    Getting rid of Jason Peters and adding Jack Jones was similar to when we changed our CB2/slot from absolute scrub level performance to Fabian Moreau (OK to decent) & Ja'Quan McMillan (slot star in the making).     In fact, they're operating at a top 5 level by DVOA the last 6 weeks - which isn't explained solely by the competition faced.     The improved pass rush & coverage are big reasons why the D's absolutely destroyed some teams at home.  When you add the crowd noise that makes an OL a split second later, it explains their big home vs. road edge in D performance.    Jared Stidham will face much better coverage this week than the ChargIR's provided.   To be clear, Russell Wilson-led O would have been even worse off, but this is a far stiffer test than last week. 

3.  Robert Spillane has turned the LB corps and middle into a TO/big play area for the team, and combined with much more cohesive DL play, and run support from the CB's (all the CB's support the run much better than the 2022 & 1H 2023 replaced guys) are massive upgrade in run D from prior years.    Much like the pass D, the run D is operating at a top 10 level the last 6 weeks, after being bottom half.   

 

Now, there's a couple paths DEN can find success with:

1.  That OL play for LV is crucial, because it's clear that Aidan O'Connell IMO isn't *that* guy.    You get pressure on him, he's not that quick in his reads, or that accurate / great at placement.   If Michael Mayer & Josh Jacobs don't play, it's a lot easier to limit the guys who can hurt us (Adams, Meyers become even more the focus, and Zamir White isn't at a healthy Jacobs' level IMO <although at the wage difference, can't blame a team to consider going his way for 2024, or draft another cheap rookie and move on>).

2.  Stidham is not the 2024 answer IMO - he'll likely compete with another vet stopgap (my fave match is Jameis Winston give Payton's history and Winston's pre-ACL success working in it in 2020 with NO), and DEN is almost certain to go hard after young QBOTF either in 2024 or 2025.    But he's less likely to take negative plays like hero-ball sacks.   

3.  We also seem to be in better shape injury-wise.

 

Still, this is a game both teams really want.   It doesn't mean anything in terms of playoffs, but unlike many "meaningless" WK18 games, both interim HC Antonio Pierce and Sean Payton both have the teams playing hard each week, in a rivalry game I don't expect less.   If you forced me to pick - I'd take LV, but with zero confidence to put my money on it.    So yeah, I think I'd hedge.  Maybe 15 percent to win 18-20 percent.  

Hope that helps,

Edited January 4 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK so we have props for SAT's 2 games, still a pretty limited number, so let's dive in...

 

WEEK 18 SAT SLATE
 

ATS/ML

HOU ML - with CJ Stroud back, I have to back the better QB.   HOU's pass D is definitely vulnerable, but their run D has been top 10, and while their pass D is vulnerable, that lack of balance will have the D able to capitalize on 3+ sacks and 2-4 TO worthy plays from Minshew (not all TO-worthy plays translate to TO's, though, but give me 1-2 TO's).      Disclaimer - I have HOU +500 to win the division, so I may be biased here (and yes, I'll be a huge TEN fan on SUN if this works out on SAT lol).

No idea on how PIT-BAL works out with BAL resting a lot of guys (Lamar already confirmed), but BAL being the far more talented team depth-wise.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Nico Collins O70.5 rec yds TheScore 2U (DK - 140, FD 71.5), O5.5 recs +120 2U @ HOU  - IND's still vulnerable to the #1 boundary WR.  The line is a little higher than I'd like at O70.5 DK (071.5 FD) to get value on the alt lines, so I'm going with the catch # in addition to the main line, as Collins has soaked up 8+ targets a game since Tank Dell got hurt in every game CJ Stroud has played, and has the plus matchup.   100+ rec yds is "only" +260, so I'd rather just go for catches & yards at the main line, and see if I can make my 4U+ profit there this week.

Devin Singletary O9.5 rec yds FD (Now 11.5; DK - 12.5) 2U, 25+ rec yds DK +240 1U, 40+ rec yds +600 DK 0.5U @ IND  - I literally must have got this at opening, because 30 mins later it's already at 11.5.   IND's great in the slot with Kenny Moore, and their TE coverage is excellent - so while I expect Nico will thrive in the X, the other funnel pass area is the RB - IND gives up 37 yards a game to RB's, and it's clear when HOU has trouble getting the ball to 2+ WR's, they then use Singletary (look at all the HOU games where they aren't gettin 200+ yards to WR's - Singletary's numbers go up). 

Diontae Johnson O37.5 rec yds 2U DK (now 38.5, FD - same), 60+ rec yds +250 1U, 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK @ BAL - while I don't know the outcome, I do know that BAL's rush D is unlikely to suddenly turn into a sieve.   And while their D is great, they're still vulnerable to the WR & RB.  At these #'s, it's easy to back the WR's for alt lines. 

George Pickens O50.5 rec yds 2U DK (FD - 52.5), 70+ rec yds +225 1U, 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK @ BAL - everything I said about Diontae applies to Pickens.  Rather than guess who will have the better matchup, I'll take both this week.  I'm pretty confident if Marlon Humphrey (just returned from injury) sits, both WR's will likely easily pass their main lines. 

Mason Rudolph O1.5 pass TD's +200 1U FD, O2.5 pass TD's +750 FD 0.5U - NGL, I'll absolutely regret this if John Harbaugh plays his pass rushers & Marlon Humpherey, but I truly believe that they will sit.   The BAL run D is still very good with their depth, so if I believe in the pass game with the RB's & WR's, this is just too good of value to pass up.  Still, as it's so volatile (you can get DPI's to the 1, and then have 2-3 rush TD's), it's only a 1.5U play.

 

There's only 1-2 more props I'm interested in for SAT, not posted yet.  So far that's likely 16U on 5 plays for SAT.

 

LONGSHOT TD

Nelson Agholor +1000 FD (already down to +700, DK not posted) / +12000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U vs. PIT - I was shocked to see this line open this high, as Zay Flowers is likely to sit, and while OBJ is likely to get some run, once he's past 5+ catches, he'll sit as well, and I suspect Rashod Bateman may sit too - those 3 are all above Agholor in the pecking order.  We could easily see a game where Agholor is the #1 guy this week, and he's clearly the 4th most important WR on the team (so not so worried to sit him altogether, although anything is possible).  I'm NOT surprised the line dropped to +700 less than 30 mins later - but that also allowed me to get the 2+ TD at a line Bodog will only match.   If DK is better, I shrug and tip my cap, but I think this got in at the top of the value chart.

 

DK doesn't have PIT-BAL yet, so I may add a couple more.  But for now, that's likely 18U committed to SAT.   It's a little scary to be committing that to HOU & PIT alone, but I know they're going all out and I feel good about the props as the volume/matchup/gamescript should all be there (IND I know will too, but the value in the lines aren't there IMO). 

 

 

WEEK 17 FINAL

ATS/ML: 44-40-1, +4.5U (WK 17 FINAL - 6-1, +7.1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 153-142, +131.7U  (WK 17 FINAL - 11-15, -2U) - adjusted with Mclaurin alt line cashout

 

LONGSHOT TD:  39-259, +46.4U (WK 17 FINAL - 5-18, +18.2U), ;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950; WK17 - J-Johnson +550, J-Browning +1100, C-Kolar +1500, J-Love +950 & J-Mundt +1100)

TOTAL - +182.6U (WK1:  +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 - +23.3U; 1348U stake so far)

  

 

 

Edited January 5 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK so there are some SUN props and TD odds out there, and there are some lines I think are moving quickly, so here goes (a lot of stay-aways, still several unposted targets I'd like to see):

WEEK 18 SUNDAY DAYTIME SLATE

ATS/ML

I don't feel great about any game TBH, with so many variables, other than BUF-MIA for SNF & HOU-IND for SAT, so passing altogether.

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Jordan Addison O49.5 rec yds 2U DK, 70+ rec yds +210 1U, 90+ rec yds +550 0.5U  @ DET - with a functional forward passing QB for 2Q, I expect Addison will go well past this mark (unlike last SNF, where the Vikes decided to have a non-thrower in Jaren Hall for 1H).  

 

Rasheed Shaheed O35.5 rec yds 2U DK, 60+ rec yds +320 1U, 80+ rec +800 0.5U DK vs ATL - it went poof last week, but that was with NO taking an unexpected large lead, and being able to run the ball down TAM's throat in the 2H.  I do not expect the same, and more importantly, I expect AJ Terrell to shadow Chris Olave - which puts Shaheed with more volume/matchup appeal.  As always, have to take a 60/80+ alt line because when he hits, he often goes into that range. 

Drake London O44.5 rec yds 2U DK, 70+ rec yds +280 1U, 100+ rec yds +850 0.5U DK @ NO - no Marshawn Lattimore, and a game I do lean to NO winning, and more importantly, their run D has shored up the last 2 weeks.  I thought it was Tommy DeVito incompetence, but their dominant run D performance vs. TAM was legit.  I think ATL has some success, but they will have to throw.  If that's the case, they have to go back to London, and again, with a number that low, it's easy to get into the alt lines in a must-win game.

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Kyle Pitts O28.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +290 1U, 70+ rec yds +800 0.5U @ NO - Ridder makes me nervous but as I believe ATL will have to chase as much as I had London I also had Pitts at this #.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Calvin Ridley O48.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ rec yds +250 1U, 100+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK @ TEN - with Christian Kirk back, I'm willing to take a chance on a gimpy T-Lawrence or a bad CJ Beathard against the beatable TEN secondary.

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - DJ Chark O35.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +300 1U, 80+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK vs. TAM - top receiver vs. pass funnel TAM D.   

LATE
 

Trey McBride O54.5 rec yds 2U DK, 80+ rec yds +250 1U, 100+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK vs. SEA - I hated the mid-60's line that was posted last week vs. PHI, but against SEA, the mid-50's line means that we're back on the McBride train. 

 

DJ Moore O65.5 rec yds TheScore (DK - 68.5, FD pending) 2U, alt lines pending (will take 1) vs. GB - this is 3 yards less than DK and I’m willing to go 1 more alt line at 90+ once out.   Look to see what FD offers when their lines release as it’s often similar to TheScore.   EDIT SUN AM: the alt lines are so bad, I have to pass (90+ is +150 on DK & +190 on FD, pass). 

 

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Tucker Kraft O28.5 rec yds FD, 50+ rec yds +270 1U FD, 70+ rec yds +600 0.5U FD  vs. CHI (will wait on DK lines) - CHI's pass D is legit, but what they often do is give up the safety valve play, and keep the ball in front of them.  That's Kraft all day.  With no Luke Musgrave in the picture, this an easy number to attack.    FD's lines seem OK, but I'm willing to see what DK posts tomorrow, with Jayden Reed & Romeo Doubs & Dontayvion Wicks all confirmed back, and perhaps Christian Watson Q but no practices this week). EDIT SUN AM:  with news that Luke Musgrave is activated, will hold off.

 

NEW ADDED FRI AM -  Saquon Barkley O59.5 rush yds 2U / 80+ rush yds +210 / 110+ rush yds +700 0.5U DK vs. PHI - PHI run D fallen apart badly in last 4 weeks. 85 yards gets him to 1K so a little team incentive likely at play too.  
 

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Jalin Hyatt O19.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +310 1U, 60+ rec yds +1000 DK 0.5U vs.  PHI - as Darius Slayton’s prop has gotten too high to get value, Hyatt’s line is too low to pass up - esp when his snap count is near 80 percent and target share went up last week with Turid Taylor at QB and he had a 40-yard catch taken back by penalty.    Easy path for both Barkley & Hyatt to hit at these main line #’s.  
 

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Jerry Jeudy O35.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +300, 90+ rec yds +1100 0.5U @ LV - trail scenario and low main line. 

 

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Aaron Jones O19.5 rec yds, 40+ rec yds +285 1U, 60+ rec yds +800 0.5U vs. CHI - Bears run D legit but pass funnel to RB’s   

 

A few specific players that aren't out that I definitely want to see where their lines are set - I really want to see Juwan Johnson & Tommy Tremble rec yds lines, as I think they'll be really low if they're not out yet.    The numbers would have to really increase from last week not to take Juwan & Tremble props if I'm being real.  Slayton got increased to 46.5 so that’s a pass.   ISo that's 40.5U on 12 player props so far, pending the targets I mentioned above. 

 

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Kevin Rader +2200 DK / ??+25000 2+ DK (not out yet) 0.4U / 0.1U & Trevon Wesco +1900 DK / ??+25000 2+ DK (not out yet) 0.4U / 0.1U @ JAX - I'm just taking the only backup TE's on the TEN roster, given how vulnerable JAX D is to TE's, good chance 1 of these 2 are inactive, in which case it voids, but if it plays, so be it.   Given those 1-TD odds, +25000 seems like a lock once posted.

Tommy Tremble +700 TheScore (+550 FD) / +10000 Bodog likely 2+ (+9000 FD) & Stephen  Sullivan +1200 TheScore (+850 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog likely 0.4U / 0.1U vs. TAM - TheScore oddd definitely provide value for a half-stake play, and Bodog’s single TD odds make their 2-TD odds predictable.  Even though CAR's pass game was dreadful last week, they should find more success against TAM's D (esp as running the ball vs. TAM has been easier, which eases the pass rush - something JAX completely dominated, neutralizing their weak secondary).  

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Pharoah Brown +1400 FD / +12500 2+ DK or Bodog (not out yet) 0.4U / 0.1U vs.  NYJ & Tyler Conklin +700 / +12000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U @NE - both the primary middle TE RZ targets vs D that take away the WR.   EDIT FRI PM - Henry is out so going with Brown at high higher odds than Gesicki.   
 

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Kendre Miller +400 1.2U DK (will add 0.3U 2+ TD once available, not out yet) vs. ATL - Alvin Kamara is a GTD but sure looked like a HAS.  Miller TD equity at +400 insane.  

 

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Harrison Bryant +700 / +11000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U & Jeff Driskel +900 / +14000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CIN - we know the Browns are resting Joe Flacco and they've already said they'll rest a bunch of starters, so that means Bryant becomes the top TE vs. the CIN leaky TE D, and we have a mobile QB in a spot start, so that always makes Driskel worth a play at those #'s.

Sadly the books finally wised up and put Juwan Johnson in the +200 to +250 range, pour one out for his 3-week TD streak (and getting us past the season total lol). 

LATE

Jordan Love +850 Score (+700 FD)/ +11000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U vs. CHI - I'm surprised the books haven't caught on that AJ Dillon re-injured the hand he had a broken thumb (and is casted) on, and against a tough run D, I like the odds for a misdirection, or a QB sneak inside the 1.   Worth the full-stake play at those #'s.  

Malik Heath +1100 DK / ?? 2-TD  0.4U / 0.1U - WAITING FOR NOW vs. CHI- Christian Watson, Jayden Reed & Dontayvion Wicks are all practicing, so there's a real chance Heath is the 5th WR - but I'm just noting that even if 1 of the 3 guys above are iffy, then it's worth considering.  Yes Bo Melton scored, but it's Heath who is behind Wicks in the pecking order.    EDIT FRI PM - all 3 WR's are active, so at 5th WR he's not worth even +1100 - pass. 

Sam Howell +750 FD (+550 or less everywhere else, DK pending) / +12000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U vs. DAL - I don't think I even need to explain this, even with Brian Robinson possibly back, the threat of a Howell rush TD on a sneak or scramble, at these odds, esp against a good pass rush, sign me up 1 more time.   Given the discrepancy with other books, locking it in now. 

Daniel Bellinger +850 FD / ?? 2-TD (WAITING ON OTHER BOOKS) & Isaiah Hodgins +1400  FD / ?2-TD   (WAITING ON OTHER BOOKS) 0.4U / 0.1U each vs. PHI - against the leaky PHI D, have to take some shots, so I'll go with the 2 longshots that see significant RZ snaps & routes.

 

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Lucas Krull +900 FD 0.4U (will take 0.1U 2+ DK / Bodog once available, not out yet) @ LV  - you know the deal.

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Colby Parkinson +700 TheScore (+600 FD) / +9000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U @ ARI - you know the deal here as well.

 

CLE-CIN from the early slate & KC-LAC, LAR-SF from the late slate are all missing on FD, while DK has JAX-TEN & MIN  but missing ATL-NO, CLE-CIN, NYJ-CLE & MIN-DET from the early slate, and missing the same 2 games plus CHI-GB from the late slate.  I don't have specific targets but pointing out value spots may be with those games.   Also, unlike other weeks, I've posted some targets where I want to see the other books before locking in (CAR & NYG props & Malik Heath given injury reports). 

 

That's all for now, I'll update this page as I add more.  I'll probably have 3-4 more player props, and I'd be surprised if I didn't have 3-4 more TD props with really obscure targets this week (LOL), but that's definitely enough for now, as I'm already committing 40.5U with 12 player props and 9.5U in TD props once the alt lines and 2-TD lines are released.

 

 

WEEK 18 SAT FINAL

ATS/ML: 45-40-1, +5.5U (WK 18 SAT  - 1-0, +1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 155-145, +135.1U (WK 18 SAT - 2-3, +3.4U)

LONGSHOT TD:  39-260, +45.4U (WK 18 SAT- 0-1, -1U), ;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950; WK17 - J-Johnson +550, J-Browning +1100, C-Kolar +1500, J-Love +950 & J-Mundt +1100)

TOTAL - +186.0U (WK1:  +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 - +23.3U; WK18 SAT - +3.4U; 1366U stake so far)

Edited January 7 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Rasheed Shaheed O35.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (will take 2) vs ATL - it went poof last week, but that was with NO taking an unexpected large lead, and being able to run the ball down TAM's throat in the 2H.  I do not expect the same, and more importantly, I expect AJ Terrell to shadow Chris Olave - which puts Shaheed with more volume/matchup appeal.  As always, have to take a 60/80+ alt line because when he hits, he often goes into that range. 

Ahhh this love affair is never ending and I'm here for it. How do you feel about Shaheed longest reception over 18.5? Or the milestones at 30 yards +300, 40 yards +700, even 50 yards +1400? Feels like with a guy like Shaheed, it's go big or go home.

[adamq]

17 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Ahhh this love affair is never ending and I'm here for it. How do you feel about Shaheed longest reception over 18.5? Or the milestones at 30 yards +300, 40 yards +700, even 50 yards +1400? Feels like with a guy like Shaheed, it's go big or go home.

Where do you see those lines? I'd smash

[SmittyBacall]

14 minutes ago, adamq said:

Where do you see those lines? I'd smash

B365

[adamq]

5 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

B365

I misread your message, thought you meant the alt lines were for strictly yardage, not alts for longest reception. 🤣