Weekly Bets Thread

[N4L]

I am worried that Kelce has an unreported injury because he has really slowed down a lot the last few weeks.

I tried to find his route tree on next gen stats but they dont have any for the last 3 weeks. Pretty disappointing that it's not on there, for basically no reason

He was hardly going down field last week from what I saw. He stayed within 5-10 yards of the LOS. There was one or two plays he went like 15 yards down field.

When they were up big, they pulled him from the game and they had a close up of his face, it honestly looked like he was having a really bad day and they were losing by 40, rather than being up by 40

I am not touching his props until he shows hes healthy, especially on a short week. 

[Broncofan]

16 minutes ago, N4L said:

He said earlier in the week that he expected the raiders to be favored by kickoff because the browns were about to get hit with covid pretty bad. Phenomenal foresight

To be fair it started hitting Twitter that CLE was about to be hit hard.   Kim Jones reported it.  It was time to move then.  Because if it was fiction just void the bets, but if it was this bad you’d see a 6-7 pt swing.  

Edited December 16, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

17 minutes ago, N4L said:

He said earlier in the week that he expected the raiders to be favored by kickoff because the browns were about to get hit with covid pretty bad. Phenomenal foresight

Lol. I can't tell if you're trolling at this point after crediting BF for bringing up the Under in tonight's game and now for somehow knowing the Browns were on the brink of a Covid wave....

BF, you got a serious fan. 

[SaveOurSonics]

11 minutes ago, N4L said:

I am worried that Kelce has an unreported injury because he has really slowed down a lot the last few weeks.

Despite my bet on his yards, I actually share the sentiment here. He has looked very lethargic on the field. My hope is that the Chargers continue to bracket Tyreek, thus forcing the ball to Kelce, and that after a very light workload against the Raiders he's a bit fresher. Certainly some risk there though. 

[Broncofan]

16 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Lol. I can't tell if you're trolling at this point after crediting BF for bringing up the Under in tonight's game and now for somehow knowing the Browns were on the brink of a Covid wave....

BF, you got a serious fan. 

He and I rode a phenomenal season last year including backing Tampa hard in the playoffs.   We’ve got history (positive lol).  And yes you called the under hard too. 

[SaveOurSonics]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

He and I rode a phenomenal season last year including backing Tampa hard in the playoffs.   We’ve got history (positive lol).  And yes you called the under hard too. 

All jokes. I'm a fan too 😉

[N4L]

58 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

All jokes. I'm a fan too 😉

LOL 

I added you to the original post and gave you credit for the under as well. Let's hope it hits otherwise it will be a stain on your reputation! 

 

Darrell Williams rushing prop is 14.5 yards?? Against a run funnel defense in the chargers?? Yeah, give me the over for that, and give me the over in CEH 58.5 rushing yards as well. 

[N4L]

That garbage punt and that mahomes fumble are going to be killer for the under 

[SaveOurSonics]

@Broncofan Very fitting that Kelce’s Over catches and yards hits on the same play haha

[Broncofan]

19 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK props I like:
 

CEH O58.5 rush yards - this is still LAC's weakest area. 

Mahomes O16.5 rush yards - teams that cover well and rush the passer, Mahomes gets 20+.   

Herbert O16.5 rush yards - with bad T play, but no Chris Jones, runs up the middle / inside on scrambles are where we can see Herbert get his.  I see 20+ yards here as well.

Kelce O5.5 catches +120 - this one is iffy, but I suspect to contain Tyreek, the Chargers do allow Kelce to get his.   

Mike Williams O54.5 rec yards - Fenton's back, but I don't see him covering Williams every snap.  It only takes 1 chunk play to get here, and his history vs. KC is very good.   Worth the shot. 

I'm interested in Allen catch props (yes I'd take O7.5 at plus money), but they're not out yet awaiting to see if he's active or not (almost certainly is).

I think it's more likely this is a 31-21 game than a 35-28 type game - and I wouldn't touch the over.   Why do I say 31-21?  Because when either team gets up 2+ scores, the D gets that much better.    We haven't see KC fall behind, which is why we haven't seen the TO's - but that's the script where that happens.  To be fair, that's exactly the same risk if KC gets up 2+ scores, too.  

 

On 12/14/2021 at 2:23 PM, Broncofan said:

Adding LAC ML +160 and RACE to 20/25/30 (+160 / +250 / +380) with news that Chris Jones is out.  Should be a pick ‘em so I gotta take those tasty plus odds.  

 

So the ML/RACE is a mixed result, because I actually hit 2/3 RACE's - I actually win 0.1U with RACE to 20/25 winning, and ML & RACE to 30 *just* missing.   Way it goes, don't feel bad about the call with the game. I guess I have to call this 0-1 ATS but 1-0 RACE....evens out lol.

Player-prop wise, Herbert missed the rush prop by 1 yard, and Williams was 6 yards short.  CEH wasn't close though.   Kelce's O5.5 catches +120, and Mahomes' O16.5 hits easily.   So that's a 0.8U loss for player props..   Fortunately for me, Allen's props were never worth taking (O6.5 -150), and as it turns out, would have missed by 1 (but no value in taking -150 bets).    It also killed one of my 3 0.5U parleys, so I'm now officially -1.2U for the week.

Chargers win in OT, or convert any of those extra chances, and it's a solid night, but that's the way it goes, can't complain, LAC had their chances.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

 

On 12/15/2021 at 1:16 PM, Broncofan said:

Just so the Week 15 ATS/ML & RACE picks are all in place:

 

TNF

LAC ML +160 and RACE to 20/25/30 (+160 / +250 / +380) - With the news Chris Jones is out, it negates losing Rashawn Slater for LAC's OL.   The updates all state Austin Ekeler is playing, and we know Keenan Allen is back.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not heavily on LAC as a sure winner - but I think it's a true 50-50 game, and if you're there, the payouts are just too good to pass up.   The other part - if LAC is going to win, them being ahead is likely necessary (as KC's D really ramps it up once they're leading and can play pass-first all the time).    So it adds more implied value to the dog RACE money as well.  

SAT DOUBLEHEADER

LV 4U ML +180, LV +3 1H 2.2U (to win 2U), LV-CLE U42 2.2U, LV RACE to 15/20 1U (+150/+250/+450/+750) - 12.2U to win 27.4U - self explanatory from prior posts.   Why it pays to get ahead of breaking news when it appears online.  Even if it loses, the value here is insane (and obv I'm not counting on it to lose lol).

IND -2 vs NE (PENDING) - this is about the matchups; IND's run game to minimize TO's / sacks vs. NE's D, and their run D forcing the game more into Mac Jones' hands - the only neutralizers are TO potential with Wentz and the massive coaching advantage (Reich still sucks).   I'm hoping the line moves more to NE as time goes by TBH, why I'm willing to wait for now.   If LV goes my way, I'm going to take any IND line of -3 or less, but hoping waiting actually gets more action on BB & NE, and makes IND more profitable (and with that LV outlay, wise to wait regardless lol).

SUNDAY

HOU +140 ML, RACE to 20/25 (+200/+350) @ JAX - yes, I'm taking Davis Mills over Trevor Lawrence.   Ask me this before the reg. season starts, and I'd say the 4 Horsemen were riding before I'd see this.  Well, the 7th seal might be breaking here.    This isn't a reflection on Lawrence - but how inept the JAX coaching staff is in game planning, deploying personnel, and managing the game.   And that's saying a LOT when I'm comparing them to the Texans.   

CIN +110 ML, RACE to 20/25/30 (+150/+250/+400) @ DEN - CIN opened up at -1.5, and then public money went hard on Denver.   In a TO-neutral game, Burrow's ability to throw vs. pressure, the weapons he has, and I'm presuming Joe Mixon is healthy again, this is a problem.    On the flip side, CIN's run D is decent, which spells trouble for DEN's O - if we're up 2+ scores, we can lean on the run game, and TeddyB's shortcomings as a QB are limited.   Get behind, and we're dead in the water.    Fangio is 1-22 when trailing at halftime.   This is a game where if you take CIN, you take the RACE's, since there's even more implied value.  

PHI -5 vs. WFT - with PHI getting healthier & rested off a bye, and WFT losing key players in Logan Thomas, and a very iffy Terry Mclaurin and JD McKissic, this really is a line I think will only increase as time goes by, so I'm willing take this favorite now.

MIA -8.5 vs. NYJ - I know, I know, it's 8.5 pts in an intradivisional game.  The thing is, the Jets are absolutely dead in the water on O now with Michael Carter & Elijah Moore & Corey Davis on IR.  Those are literally the 3 matchup problems MIA had to worry about....now, it's a motley crew.   And Tua has Waddle/Parker & Gesicki, and likely Myles Gaskin, as his 4 main weapons.   This IMO will be a 27-10 type game, I'm happy to take this before the line increases more. 

 

So I've put in bets to win 1U on ATS, and the RACE's above at 0.5U as usual (except for LV's 1U each) - and I put in a 0.5U parley on 3 combos: 

LV ML +180 / IND ML -130 / PHI -3 -160 / CIN ML +110 at +2100, 

LV ML +180 / IND ML -130 / HOU ML +140 / PHI -3 -170 (moved up just after I bet #1) / MIA -6 -160 / CIN ML +110 for +5700

LAC ML +160 / LV +180 / IND ML -130 / HOU ML +140 / CIN ML +110 at +6500

All 3 parleys I can hedge CIN's game with DEN as the last leg. 

So that's a whopping 22.7U I've already put on for Week 14 (assuming I bet IND) - but with 12.7U on LV props alone.   Crazy that I've become a MAJOR Raiders fan this week - but team allegiances don't care about $ opps lol.  BOL!

 

OK with TNF updated, here's the Sat/Sun card, with some notable adjustments....and by sheer dumb luck, the PHI line has ballooned due to WFT Covid (no idea on that one), and MIA line went nuts just because NYJ kinda sucks right now (sorry Jets fans).

Just so the remaining Week 15 plays are in 1 place:

 

SAT DOUBLEHEADER

LV 4U ML +180, LV +3 1H 2.2U (to win 2U), LV-CLE U42 2.2U, LV RACE to 15/20 1U (+150/+250/+450/+750) - 12.2U to win 27.4U - self explanatory from prior posts.   Why it pays to get ahead of breaking news when it appears online.  Even if it loses, the value here is insane (and obv I'm not counting on it to lose lol).   EDIT POST-TNF:  If the odds keep getting better in CLE's favor (they're now +3.5 and ML +170 lol), it offers an easy 3-4U hedge in-game if LV takes the lead at +300/+400 odds, and basically guarantee profit either way, will definitely explore.

IND -2 vs NE (PENDING) - this is about the matchups; IND's run game to minimize TO's / sacks vs. NE's D, and their run D forcing the game more into Mac Jones' hands - the only neutralizers are TO potential with Wentz and the massive coaching advantage (Reich still sucks).   I'm hoping the line moves more to NE as time goes by TBH, why I'm willing to wait for now.   If LV goes my way, I'm going to take any IND line of -3 or less, but hoping waiting actually gets more action on BB & NE, and makes IND more profitable (and with that LV outlay, wise to wait regardless lol).

SUNDAY

HOU +140 ML, RACE to 20/25 (+200/+350) @ JAX - yes, I'm taking Davis Mills over Trevor Lawrence.   Ask me this before the reg. season starts, and I'd say the 4 Horsemen were riding before I'd see this.  Well, the 7th seal might be breaking here.    This isn't a reflection on Lawrence - but how inept the JAX coaching staff is in game planning, deploying personnel, and managing the game.   And that's saying a LOT when I'm comparing them to the Texans.   

CIN +110 ML, RACE to 20/25/30 (+150/+250/+400) @ DEN - CIN opened up at -1.5, and then public money went hard on Denver.   In a TO-neutral game, Burrow's ability to throw vs. pressure, the weapons he has, and I'm presuming Joe Mixon is healthy again, this is a problem.    On the flip side, CIN's run D is decent, which spells trouble for DEN's O - if we're up 2+ scores, we can lean on the run game, and TeddyB's shortcomings as a QB are limited.   Get behind, and we're dead in the water.    Fangio is 1-22 when trailing at halftime.   This is a game where if you take CIN, you take the RACE's, since there's even more implied value.  

PHI -5 vs. WFT (now -9)- with PHI getting healthier & rested off a bye, and WFT losing key players in Logan Thomas, and a very iffy Terry Mclaurin and JD McKissic, this really is a line I think will only increase as time goes by, so I'm willing take this favorite now.

MIA -8.5 vs. NYJ  (now -10.5 lol)- I know, I know, it's 8.5 pts in an intradivisional game.  The thing is, the Jets are absolutely dead in the water on O now with Michael Carter & Elijah Moore & Corey Davis on IR.  Those are literally the 3 matchup problems MIA had to worry about....now, it's a motley crew.   And Tua has Waddle/Parker & Gesicki, and likely Myles Gaskin, as his 4 main weapons.   This IMO will be a 27-10 type game, I'm happy to take this before the line increases more. 

 

So I've put in bets to win 1U on ATS, and the RACE's above at 0.5U as usual (except for LV's 1U each) - and I put in a 0.5U parley on 3 combos: 

LV ML +180 / IND ML -130 / PHI -3 -160 / CIN ML +110 at +2100 

LV ML +180 / IND ML -130 / PHI -3 -170 (moved up just after I bet #1) / MIA -6 -160 / CIN ML +110 for +2200 (EDIT:  HOU PULLED so go from +5700 to +2200)

Both parleys I can hedge CIN's game with DEN as the last leg. 

So that's a whopping 21.7U I've already put on for Week 14 (assuming I bet IND) - but with 12.7U on LV props alone.   Crazy that I've become a MAJOR Raiders fan this week - but team allegiances don't care about $ opps lol.  BOL!

 

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 15 ATS:

ATS 41-41; 10-16 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +21.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS). 

Player props - 144-134, +40.5U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-58, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +50.9U profit so far 

Net balance:  +112.5U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 TNF - -1.2U)

Edited December 17, 2021 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

Bruh, I took the Browns -6 early in the week and now they're +3.5. 💀

[NYRaider]

Also surprised to see Philadelphia -10 against WFT, am I missing something here? Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, and Jordan Howard are all questionable to play while Henickie and Terry are both trending towards playing. WFT is 4-1 SU as underdogs over the last 5 and nearly tied the game late in the 4th quarter last week in Dallas.

[SaveOurSonics]

6 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Also surprised to see Philadelphia -10 against WFT, am I missing something here? Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, and Jordan Howard are all questionable to play while Henickie and Terry are both trending towards playing. WFT is 4-1 SU as underdogs over the last 5 and nearly tied the game late in the 4th quarter last week in Dallas.

WFT has lost a solid amount of players to COVID this week (I think I read their down to their 5th Center). That said and to your point, it feels like a serious overreaction by the public in this particular case. WFT hasn't lost anyone truly significant to my knowledge. The line opened at -3 iirc and has gone up a full TD since then with this news. 

[SaveOurSonics]

6 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Bruh, I took the Browns -6 early in the week and now they're +3.5. 💀

Kicking myself as well. Took Raiders ML at +150 and next day hedged with CLE+8 / U48.5 when the line was CLE +1. Had I waited I could've gotten it up to CLE+10 🤦‍♂️