agarcia34 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 59 minutes ago, agarcia34 said: Playing Chubbs rushing yards prop when it comes out at anything under 100 yards. Chubb over 80.5 rushing yards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 12 hours ago, NYRaider said: 49ers -3.5 at Tennessee is a nice line with Julio and AJ Brown both likely out. I bought it to three and played it already. I also love the under 45 in that game. It will move down so I played it already. Titans weapons will not be able to challenge the niners corners, which is basically the only weakness on that defense. Fred Warner is back and played his best game of the season yesterday. Foreman is probably out with an ankle. Niners DL has been really, really good recently Titans DL will give the niners some problems. Harold Landry is going to dominate our RT, Tom Compton. Simmons will outmuscle our interior OL, especially on the right side. Garoppolo needs to be protected to be comfortable. If he's not comfortable, he really struggles. Niners also like to sit on the ball. Slow pace, short passes and lots of runs that keep the clock running. So outside of the niners turning the ball over a lot, I expect a pretty low scoring game with a niners victory Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Man. Primetime has not been good to me lately. After a really, really solid day, I get some awful beats last night. First, the good: DParker O57.5 receiving ✅ Feels like we were all on this one. Can't believe it took as long as it did, but a hit is a hit. RGage O52.5 receiving ✅ This line felt criminally low. Very easy 1H hit. NHarris U70.5 rushing ✅ Titans run defense is quietly very good and this was a no-sweat win. AJones O41.5 rushing ✅ It was only a matter of time before they got him more involved, and I'll take this line for a guy with home run speed. Easy hit. Texans ML ✅ Texans+Bengals ML ✅ GB+1 / DAL -3 / ARI DET U55 Teaser ✅ Lost another long odds Teaser as the Cardinals couldn't cover -3 ❌ JRobinson O80 rushing ❌ My biggest issue right now is that my biggest plays aren't hitting. I went 2U on this play (1U on the previous props) and it misses by 5 yards. Can't even be mad. If you told me JRob was getting 18 carries, I wouldn't have hesitated to hit this. And then there was SNF.... AKamara O4.5 receptions ❌. Brutal. 2 catches on 3 targets on the first drive. The process was SOUND. The Saints continued to line Kamara all over the formation and manufacture him looks, but whether it was Taysom's accuracy issues or Kamara inexplicably dropping balls, it hurt to watch. The game script could not have been worse for this. It's the first time in Alvin's career that he has failed to catch at least half of his targets in a single game. CGodwin O72.5 receiving ❌. Another 2U play. This felt like an absolute SMASH spot, and boy was I feeling good as Godwin had 49 of the team's 62 yards at the end of the 1Q. He's been seeing Kupp-like usage lately so this number felt criminally low. Of course one low hit completely derailed what would have been a slam dunk bet. THill O1.5 passing TDs ❌. Small play as we knew it wasn't particularly likely. The Saints were never put in a position to call an aggressive offense, and this obviously suffered because of it. All in all, 4-1 on 1U props and 0-3 on 2U props. For a net loss on a day that had so much promise. Thankfully the parlay and teaser still made it a +3U day all in all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 @agarcia34 I'm liking the sound of that Chubb line. Denzel Perryman is out for the Raiders who is one of their biggest contributors against the run. Just locked in CLE+9 / U47 Teaser (-125) for 1.5U I actually think Cleveland ML is a sneaky good bet here too. Mullens is not BAD and I think is perfectly capable of managing a game against this Raiders defense. Chubb and DErnest should see over 30 carries combined in a game where Bitonio and Teller are both active. With this teaser, I obviously just need the Browns to keep it close at home with a chip on their shoulder. The U47 should be relatively safe with a depleted Browns offense and a Waller-less Raiders offense. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
braylon Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I haven’t seen a chubb line anywhere yet.. what book do you have that on? @agarcia34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, braylon said: I haven’t seen a chubb line anywhere yet.. what book do you have that on? @agarcia34 Caesars Sportsbook they’re the only book I seen have the Browns prop bets Just checked and it’s at 79.5 but juiced at -130 Edited December 20, 2021 by agarcia34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: @agarcia34 I'm liking the sound of that Chubb line. Denzel Perryman is out for the Raiders who is one of their biggest contributors against the run. Just locked in CLE+9 / U47 Teaser (-125) for 1.5U I actually think Cleveland ML is a sneaky good bet here too. Mullens is not BAD and I think is perfectly capable of managing a game against this Raiders defense. Chubb and DErnest should see over 30 carries combined in a game where Bitonio and Teller are both active. With this teaser, I obviously just need the Browns to keep it close at home with a chip on their shoulder. The U47 should be relatively safe with a depleted Browns offense and a Waller-less Raiders offense. Also Raiders give up about 120 on the ground and their front 4 is not built to stop the run. Like a heavy dose of Chubb for todays again where they will want to control the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Seeing Browns player props posted at DraftKings and BetMGM and other places as well now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
braylon Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Yep, they’re all out! Good look man! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Currently considering.... Chubb O79.5 rushing - Not sure much justification is needed here. In games where Chubb sees at least 10 carries, he's hit the Over in 7 of 9 games (78% hit rate). The 2 games he didn't hit w/ 10+ carries? Against division rival Ravens and Steelers. Mullens U192.5 passing - The highest O/U for CLE receivers today is currently DPJ at 36.5. The Raiders are quietly top 10 in Yards Per Attempt surrendered. 13mph winds are not enough to derail the passing game, but enough to be wary of deep passes. I can't imagine they ask Mullens to fire more than 25 attempts unless the defense implodes, which makes me like this number. At the Raiders current YPA of 6.5, it would take Mullens 30 attempts to hit the Over. Now, this isn't the Shanahan 49ers, but the one thing holding me back here is that Mullens has never thrown for less than 200 yards in an NFL start. Monitoring.... Chubb receiving lines - Let me start by admitting that I use ESPN's fantasy app in an attempt to spot good plays. I noticed on there that the Raiders are 29th in RB scoring allowed. As I dove deeper, I realized that their run defense really hasn't been bad at all from a YPC or YPG standpoint. So how are they 29th? They get absolutely spanked underneath. Here's the backfield receiving production over their last 5 games: 8 catches for 59 yards vChiefs 7 for 35 vWFT (McKissic out!) 10 for 56 vCowboys 4 for 25 vBengals (Mixon had 30 carries and O receptions, mind you) 10 for 107 vChiefs 5 for 15 vGiants (Saquon out and Penny had -8 yards) 6 for 43 vEagles 7 for 41 vBroncos That's an average of 7.8 receptions & 56.4 yards from opposing backfields over the last 5. I don't have an O/U on Chubb's receptions yet, but his yards are at 15.5 which would indicate this will either be a O/U 1.5 or 2 catch prop. In what should be a conservative game plan for Mullens w/ 13mph winds, I think this could be another solid play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 25 minutes ago, agarcia34 said: Just checked and it’s at 79.5 but juiced at -130 Boy do I feel dumb. Was at 79.5 -115 as I was typing up that last post. It's now at 82.5.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: Boy do I feel dumb. Was at 79.5 -115 as I was typing up that last post. It's now at 82.5.... 83.5 now it’s only gonna go up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, agarcia34 said: 83.5 now it’s only gonna go up Back down to 80.5 at DK. A lot of movement on his prop so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, agarcia34 said: Back down to 80.5 at DK. A lot of movement on his prop so far Calling it now. He hits 81 exactly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Going with Njoku over 29.5 rec yards. TE always a friendly safety blanket for QB. Winds expected to get up to 30 MPH. Feel really good about that Chubb prop. Gimmie 20 rushing attempts and he hits it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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