NYRaider Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 (edited) Have any of you guys tried the player props on Underdog Fantasy? I have a 5 leg player prop bet for this weekend, bet $50 to win $1,000. The way that their prop bets work is 2 players = 3x your wager, 3 players = 6x your wager, 4 players = 10x your wager, and 5 players = 20x your wager. My five: Jalen Hurts O206.5 passing yards Hurts torched WFT for 296 passing yards a couple of weeks ago and with Sanders/Howard banged up I think we'll see more passing volume this week. Dallas Goedert O54.5 receiving yards Goedert also torched WFT for 135 receiving yards and has been the Eagles primary pass catcher as the season has progressed. Like this one with the correlation it has with Jalen's prop. Tom Brady U300.5 passing yards The Buccaneers are likely going to be without almost all of their top pass catchers and the Jets cannot stop the run at all. I think they'll take a run heavy approach this week. Taysom Hill U196.5 passing yards The Panthers have one of the stingiest secondaries in the league, IIRC they've only give up more than 210 passing yards once or twice all season. I'm assuming the Saints take a similar approach to Carolina as they had against Tampa. Ball control offense looking to run the ball and milk the clock. Saquan Barkley U82.5 rush/receiving yards Barkley's hurt and the Bears run defense is decent. Even with all of the top receiving options out, Barkley just hasn't looked the same Booker has been getting more involved every week. Edited January 1, 2022 by NYRaider 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 (edited) OK the full Week 17 Sunday card... ATS/ML/RACE I was really interested in DET over SEA, until Goff was declared doubtful, and DEN's injuries make them a sitting duck for LAC. Honestly, it's a terrible dog card this week - and yet, I know there's going to be 3-4 dogs that cover minimum, if don't win outright - I just can't see where, so I'm also going to veer off a little, and do a ML parley instead for my small longshot play (added to the 1 I had going from MNF). My initial leans where upsets were most likely were CIN-KC, MIA-TEN (but I sided with TEN in end, so I just didn't bet), DET-SEA (here the Goff injury changed my mind) & TAM-NYJ (don't laugh), so I took the 12-team ML parley with Georgia -7.5... anyways, on to the single bets, unusually dog-light: EARLY CIN ML +180, RACE to 20/25/30 0.5U (+200 / +350 / +550) - decided to take the dive today. Logan Wilson is playing, and I envision this much like the LAC-KC game. I think it's a 50-50 prop, so I'll go with the dog money - the RACE has more value IMO because if CIN wins the game, it's way more likely they take a lead that they don't give up, rather than come back. LAR -3.5 @ BAL (now -5) - the total lack of BAL secondary makes this a 7+ pt win IMO in a TO neutral game. Why I'm was willing to go past the 3-pt threshold when lines came out on Tuesday. PHI -3 @ WFT (now -5) - another one I took on Tuesday, and wanted to get in b4 the line moved. Gibson/OL news moved it hard. LATE LAC -6 vs. DEN (now -7.5) 4U - been pimping this since the first news of a DEN Covid wave hit - now it's finally getting there. A little disappointed it hasn't moved more, but I get the QB won't change with Lock being positive for Covid before (but no RT, no WR's at all, no pass rush, run DL compromised, and 2/5 of our top cover DB's gone....1.5 pts is pretty low, even with crossing over past 7). SNF CLE -3 @ PIT - I know Big Ben's last home game is very likely happening here. CLE is just that much better of a team, and PIT having no run D and trouble protecting Ben is an awful matchup. Baker could go -2 or worse to make this close, but as long as it's within 3, I'm comfortable here. That's 9.5U on ATS/ML/RACE plays, with 4U on LAC -6 (don't burn me again LAC/DEN lol). I also have a 0.5U on Georgia -7.5 / LAR / CHI / PHI / IND / BUF / NE / LAC / DAL / SF / NO / GB / CLE 13-leg for 40-1 (greasy, greasy, greasy lol), and a 0.5U one from last MNF of MIA -3 MNF (hit) / DAL NBA ML (hit) / Georgia -7 (hit) / TEN / PHI / CIN (big one) / LAR for +7000.... so that's 10.5U in total. PLAYER PROPS Did the player props, no new ones out, but so it's all in 1 spot: EARLY EDIT ADDED LATE SAT PM: Matt Stafford O2.5 pass TD +180 2U - @SmittyBacall mentioned this before, but I've been stuck with my book at O1.5 at -230 until tonight. It's the BAL pass D, their run D is far tougher to play against, this is no better than a 50-50 prop, but we're getting a 35 percent prob payout. Easy call here. Tua Tagovailoa O1.5 pass TD's +110 - TEN's a pass funnel D, and at plus money, I'll definitely go here. Jalen Hurts O1.5 pass TD's +150 - there's risk always that the run TD is how PHI scores. But as we saw with DAL-WFT, pass is how you exploit their D the most.Dallas Goedert @51.5 rec yards 2U - agree with @NYRaider's call on Goedert, this is a 75+ yard projection I have, so worth 2U. Jaylen Waddle O6.5 rec +110 2U - same reasoning as @SaveOurSonics gave, can't really add much except the rec prop is now +110, so better payout, and equal odds IMO. Joe Mixon O15.5 rec yards - KC's D promotes short area passes, so this one's an easy one to take IMO Travis Kelce O69.5 rec yards - already moved up, and will continue to move up. Windy day, even more short area stuff, that's Kelce LATE Kyler Murray O30.5 rush yards - I expect this will be needed with DAL's pass rush and ARI's issues in getting guys open at the WR spot, along with another prop Ezekiel Elliott O53.5 rush yards - ARI's so vulnerable to the run, I expected this to be O70.5 or more with DAL expected to win. Ceedee Lamb O62.5 rec yards - ditto on reasoning given by @SaveOurSonics Zach Ertz O53.5 rec yards 2U - the one area where DAL D will willingly give up catches, but no catch prop yet. That's 15U on player props, plus I have a 0.5U parley on Hurts O1.5 TD +150 / Goedert O51.5 rec yards / Waddle O6.5 recs +110 / Mixon O15.5 rec yards / Kelce O69.5 rec yards / Ertz O53.5 rec yards for +7500. So that's 15.5U in total. YOLO! LONGSHOT TD's A whole bunch of longshot TD props this week: Stephen Anderson +600 TD / +7500 2+ (0.7U / 1U) - the only TE left in LAC besides McKitty (Cook/Parham both out). Will definitely be in there on RZ plays, at least on 1st/2nd down. The odds are already down to +300 today. Lil' Jordan Humphrey +650 TD / +8000 2+ (0.7U / 0.1U) - their functional big slot/move TE (Trautman back to take inline work). Rashad Higgins +650 TD / +8000 2+ (0.7U / 0.1U) - the top RZ WR IMO in CLE. DPJ gets the long-shot stuff, and Landry doesn't win as easily here. Higgins got stopped at the 1 last week, otherwise he'd be much lower this week. Harrison Bryant +1200 TD / +12500 2+ (0.6U / 0.1) - yes CLE has all 3 TE's back, but even then Bryant sees 40 percent of snaps, and more RZ looks than Njoku. So the value here is worth a shot. Irhim Smith Marsette +1400 / +12500 (0.6U / 0.1U) - this could be an inactive, in which case I pivot to Dede Westbrook (who's priced similarly). One of these 2 guys is the WR3, so the value is just too good. Noah Gray +1200 TD (0.6U) - KC still throws to 2nd TE near RZ, so those odds are too good with CIN's TE D. Eric Saubert +2000 TD (now +1400 - 0.6U) - DEN used a lot of 3-TE vs. LAC and threw on PA - so the chances they could do that here if they can get the ball near the RZ are pretty high. Fant is +200 and Albert O is +375, and I get why - but given the fact we'll be missing our top 3 WR's, wouldn't suprise me to see Saubert get a 30+ percent snap share like he did in 1st game. That's 5.0U on TD props, so hoping at least 1 hits - and if a 2-TD or 2+ guys hit, it's profit time. This makes a total of 31.0U on the line this Sunday.....BOL! 2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 16 ATS 52-42; 13-18 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +78.0U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win). Player props - 152-146, +40.7U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U) TD - 19-74 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10, and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +34.9U profit so far. Net balance: +152.6U (Week 1 - +43.8U Week 2 - -1.6U. Week 3 - -1.3U Week 4 - +12.2U Week 5 - +9.0U Week 6 - +8.2U Week 7 - +15.7U Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch> Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U Week 16 up to Sunday - +29.3U) Edited January 2, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 (edited) 10 hours ago, NYRaider said: Have any of you guys tried the player props on Underdog Fantasy? I have a 5 leg player prop bet for this weekend, bet $50 to win $1,000. The way that their prop bets work is 2 players = 3x your wager, 3 players = 6x your wager, 4 players = 10x your wager, and 5 players = 20x your wager. My five: Jalen Hurts O206.5 passing yards Hurts torched WFT for 296 passing yards a couple of weeks ago and with Sanders/Howard banged up I think we'll see more passing volume this week. Dallas Goedert O54.5 receiving yards Goedert also torched WFT for 135 receiving yards and has been the Eagles primary pass catcher as the season has progressed. Like this one with the correlation it has with Jalen's prop. Tom Brady U300.5 passing yards The Buccaneers are likely going to be without almost all of their top pass catchers and the Jets cannot stop the run at all. I think they'll take a run heavy approach this week. Taysom Hill U196.5 passing yards The Panthers have one of the stingiest secondaries in the league, IIRC they've only give up more than 210 passing yards once or twice all season. I'm assuming the Saints take a similar approach to Carolina as they had against Tampa. Ball control offense looking to run the ball and milk the clock. Saquan Barkley U82.5 rush/receiving yards Barkley's hurt and the Bears run defense is decent. Even with all of the top receiving options out, Barkley just hasn't looked the same Booker has been getting more involved every week. Given my lean to overs, I'm very much on Goedert's number, willing to go 2U there and fit in my 6-leg parley (instead of Zeke, given him being banged up, there's always more uncertainty). Outstanding call. Edited January 1, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 22 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said: Is this thread strictly for NFL plays? If so, disregard the following. Decided to sprinkle 0.5U on a 5-leg Teaser yesterday that hit and paid back 3U. Shockingly very little sweat for a 5-leg parlay. Purdue +15 / Purdue O58 / Pitt U55 / Wisconsin -0.5 / Wisconsin U50 Today's NCAAF Teaser of the day is... Bama -4.5 / Georgia -0.5 / Georgia U53.5 Not sure if I feel good about both of those teasers hitting, or bad because both would’ve hit had I just parlayed them straight up. ✅✅ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 11 hours ago, NYRaider said: Dallas Goedert O54.5 receiving yards Goedert also torched WFT for 135 receiving yards and has been the Eagles primary pass catcher as the season has progressed. Yep, I’ll also be tailing this. Lines at 49.5 on my book which feels like a smash spot. I’m also looking into that Taysom Hill play. He hasn’t exceeded 175 yards since his mallet finger. Deonte Harris returning worries me some (big play ability) but I don’t see Darnold putting the Saints offense in a spot where they have to push the ball downfield. Might tail that as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: I’m also looking into that Taysom Hill play. He hasn’t exceeded 175 yards since his mallet finger. Deonte Harris returning worries me some (big play ability) but I don’t see Darnold putting the Saints offense in a spot where they have to push the ball downfield. Might tail that as well. The Panthers secondary is 2nd in the league in terms of yards allowed, they held Matt Ryan to 190 and Josh Allen to 193. Brady had 234 last week but that was the second most yardage they've given up all season and only the 4th time a team threw for over 200 against them. When they played the Saints earlier in the season they held Winston to 80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 (edited) On 12/31/2021 at 4:35 PM, SmittyBacall said: Adding: Matthew Stafford over 2.5 passing touchdowns +175 - For the same reason Burrow can throw for 4 TDs and 527 yards, BAL will once again trot out their practice squad vets to cover one of the most dangerous passing attacks in football. BAL also remains one of the best rush defense groups in football, making this a pass funnel opportunity. Good bet at these odds for someone who has hit this in 8 of 15 games. 1 unit. Looks like PFF is backing my pick: Typically, teams throw 44% of the time within four yards of the end zone, but the Rams have thrown at a 65.8% rate. They are similarly one of the most pass-heavy teams within 10 yards or 20 yards of the red zone, too. As long as the Rams offense is doing well, Stafford will be throwing touchdowns. https://www.pff.com/news/bet-best-nfl-week-17-player-prop-bets-jahnke-2021 Edited January 1, 2022 by SmittyBacall 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: Looks like PFF is backing my pick: Typically, teams throw 44% of the time within four yards of the end zone, but the Rams have thrown at a 65.8% rate. They are similarly one of the most pass-heavy teams within 10 yards or 20 yards of the red zone, too. As long as the Rams offense is doing well, Stafford will be throwing touchdowns. https://www.pff.com/news/bet-best-nfl-week-17-player-prop-bets-jahnke-2021 It was at O1.5 -230 on my book for forever. Finally hit at O2.5 pass TD +180 an hour ago. Took it right away for 2U. Edited January 2, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Kelce over 71.5 yards One of the worst teams against TEs. Kittle went for 151, Waller went for 116 and Andrews went for 125. Love this match up think Kelce hits this with ease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 hours ago, agarcia34 said: Kelce over 71.5 yards One of the worst teams against TEs. Kittle went for 151, Waller went for 116 and Andrews went for 125. Love this match up think Kelce hits this with ease. Josh Jacobs over 53.5 rushing yards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I'm gonna need KC to win by 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just need a TD from Ron Jones to hit a TD parlay of David M, D Harris, and RJ (boosted to +710) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 12/29/2021 at 4:57 PM, SmittyBacall said: Speaking of futures, why is Mac Jones considered such a lock at -350 to win ROY over Ja’Marr Chase (+300)? Is it just me, or is Chase’s stat line and impact not more impressive then Mac Jones’? Put a unit on it before today. Looking good so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Kelce prop not looking good 5 catches for 25 in the 1h Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 hours ago, agarcia34 said: Josh Jacobs over 53.5 rushing yards Complete no show from Kelce Jacobs gets there…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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