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BStanRamFan

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Before I recap, I'm still recovering from that awful DEN finish (OMG Hackett has to be fired tomorrow), but wanted to make sure my SNF bets are on record:

ATS/ML - LAC +6; frankly ML +210 isn't crazy, should be a great game.

PLAYER PROPS - Jerick McKinnon O22.5 rec yds & O3.5 catches (ILB are how you attack them).

TD Props - Joe Fortson +950 DK & Josh Palmer +360 / +3200 2+ FD & Richard Rodgers +1300 FD 0.5U

BOL!

 

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

 

So a decent day, and frankly, could have a had a monster day, had Njoku/Dulcich/Singletary not had big plays called back  (Njoku & Dulcich plays missed by late QB read <Njoku for 25+ yards>/called back by penalty <Dulcich 22 yds> were 4U swings x2, Singletary missed final alt line by 4 yds for a 3.5U swing, when James Cook ran for 80+ as well).    

ATS/ML - 1-1-1, even - HORRIBLE call on MIN LOL.   CHI was unlucky to push in some ways, lucky ATL didn't try to score, while DET was a solid call.    

PLAYER PROPS - 6-3 (6-2 on 2U+ plays), +6.5U - frankly, this was the "lowest" result possible - could have been as high as +17.7U with plays that actually happened but got called back/missed.  Njoku / Dulcich both had their chances to cash in the main prop, and Singletary got vultured from the clinching final alt line by Cook, but that's gambling.   

TD PROPS - 1-8, -2.5U - the only guy who got no looks was Sullivan - everyone else was on the field and running routes, and guys like Friermuth, Kmet and Njoku, had shots - but only Juwan Johnson cashes (man the guy is such a savior).   Way it goes, don't regret the shots given the opps, way it goes.

 

Already off to a promising start with Josh Palmer, hopefully can keep it coming!

 

 

WEEK 11 SNF 

ATS/ ML & RACE

26-21-2 ATS, 9-14 ML/RACE, BALANCE +0.6U. (+1.0U Week 11 SNF, 2-1-1).                                                                                                   .                      
PLAYER PROPS

78-77  BALANCE  +48.9U (+7.7U Week 11 SNF, 8-4) - Now 39-33 in 2U+ plays, Week 5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Week 6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Week 7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Week 8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Week 10 Kmet huge payoff, Week 11 TNF Burks )


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-69, BALANCE +104.2U (+3.5U Week 11 SNF - win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF Week 3, Latavius Murray +1000 & Josh Reynolds +500 1U & Jody Fortson +900 1U & SF DST +1000 0.4U, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800 0.5U, Durham Smythe +700 1U & Trautman +800 1U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200 Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700 Week 9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Week 10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300 & Week 11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360).    
 

TOTAL:  +153.7U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +10.2U)

Well it was a great betting SNF - even though I was rooting so hard for a Chargers win (anyone but the Chiefs lol).

Still, I'll take the betting result:

ATS/ML - LAC +6, easy win, +1U.   ML bettors probably feel crushed.

Player Props - 0-1, -2U.   Thought LAC would be better in coverage with all the WR's out, but nope, the TE's killed them.   Oh well. 

TD props - 1-2, but Josh Palmer didn't just go 1-TD he went 2-TD, so I win 3.6U with the 1st TD, and 6.6U with the 2nd - so that gives me a tidy 8.7U profit.   

So that puts me at +7.7U for SNF, and that boosts Sunday to +11.7U overall, and Week 11 now at +17.9U.    I'll take it!   

 

 

WEEK 11 MNF 

ATS/ ML & RACE

27-21-2 ATS, 9-14 ML/RACE, BALANCE +1.6U. (+2.0U Week 11 SNF, 3-1-1).                                                                                                   .                      
PLAYER PROPS

78-78,  BALANCE  +46.9U (+3.7U Week 11 SNF, 8-5) - Now 39-34 in 2U+ plays, Week 5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Week 6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Week 7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Week 8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Week 10 Kmet huge payoff, Week 11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins)


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-69, BALANCE +112.9U (+12.2U Week 11 SNF - win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF Week 3, Latavius Murray +1000 & Josh Reynolds +500 1U & Jody Fortson +900 1U & SF DST +1000 0.4U, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800 0.5U, Durham Smythe +700 1U & Trautman +800 1U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200 Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700 Week 9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Week 10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300 & Week 11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's).    
 

TOTAL:  +161.4U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +17.9U)

Edited by Broncofan
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NYRaider

NYRaider

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On 11/17/2022 at 2:15 PM, NYRaider said:

Not sure when the official lines will come out but some I've seen and like as well as guys I'll be monitoring:

• Darius Slayton O44.5 receiving yards: Slayton has 58+ receiving yards in 4/5 games and has started to emerge as the Giants only consistent option in the passing game. The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the league and it looks like Wan'Dale Robinson is going to miss the game, setting up to be a smash spot.

• Tyler Higbee O43.5 receiving yards: Higbee looked good and was effective last week after dealing with an injury. He caught 8/8 targets for 73 yards with Kupp playing for most of the game and was clearly Stafford's second favorite target early on in the year. With Kupp out and the Rams total and complete inability to run the ball I think this is the type of game we could see him get 10-12+ targets. 

• DJ Moore U53.5 receiving yards: Moore has only hit O 54 receiving yards in 1/6 games with Baker Mayfield under center. The Ravens pass defense has been criticized but they've been better as of late giving up 201, 190, 155, 223, 305, and 195 through the air over the last 6 weeks. Baker wasn't great against the Ravens last year and with Darnold/Walker also in the mix, it could get ugly for them on Sunday. 

• Parris Campbell O receiving yards: Over the last three weeks that Campbell has played with Ryan under center he has put up: 7 catches/76 yards/1 TD, 10 catches/70 yards/1 TD, and 7 catches/57 yards/1 TD. Over that span he has a 25% target share and has been Ryan's go to guy and security blanket. The Eagles have one of the best pass rushes and outside CB duos in the league and are favored to blow the Colts out. So Campbell should be playing in a game with a positive game script since the Colts should have to throw the ball a ton and matches up well as I'm sure they'll emphasize getting the ball out quickly and trying to avoid targeting Bradberry/Slay. 

• Donovan Peoples Jones O receiving yards: Amari Cooper has been great during every home game and absolutely terrible on the road this year. DPJ is also coming off of 6 straight games with 50+ receiving yards (70+ in 5/6) and has become a favorite for Brissett. The Bills are expected to blow the Browns out this week which should lead to a positive game script where the Browns are forced to throw the ball to stay in the game. The fact that the game will now be in Detroit where they'll avoid any type of wind or weather also really benefits DPJ, imo.

Slayton finished with 86 yards. 

Higbee finished with 45 yards. 

DJ Moore finished with 23 yards.

Parris Campbell's O/U was 41.5 and he finished with 67 yards.

DPJ's O/U was 44.5 and he finished with 61 yards. 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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Posted (edited)

For MNF I have 2 player props and 5 TD props: 

PLAYER 

James Conner u53.5 rush yds - playing vs the number 1 rush D.  

Brandon Ayiuk o53.5 Rec yds & 75+ +260 0.5U - he’s gone 75+ last 5 games.  Blowout potential is why I’m not going 3.5U here. 


TD PROPS 

Juan Jennings +750 FD - so many mouths to feed but the 49ers throw so many players in diff packages.  Worth the play at these numbers. 

Ray Ray McLeod +1500 FD - see above   

Trey McBride +600 0.5U - main TE with backup QB gotta take the shot at those numbers (but only 0.5U with McCoy as likely QB). 

Keontay Ingram +1100 0.5U - going to get some work with Eno Benjamin gone. Pass catching provides a path that avoids that number 1 rush D.

Maxx Williams +1500 0.5U - there’s a name I haven’t heard.   He’s likely the pass catching backup TE, insurance if Tre McBride goes down / can’t block to be in RZ packages.  
 

Thats 6U at play so more than enough - BOL! 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

For MNF I have 2 player props and 5 TD props: 

PLAYER 

James Conner u53.5 rush yds - playing vs the number 1 rush D.  

Brandon Ayiuk o53.5 Rec yds & 75+ +260 0.5U - he’s gone 75+ last 5 games.  Blowout potential is why I’m not going 3.5U here. 


TD PROPS 

Juan Jennings +750 FD - so many mouths to feed but the 49ers throw so many players in diff packages.  Worth the play at these numbers. 

Ray Ray McLeod +1500 FD - see above   

Trey McBride +600 0.5U - main TE with backup QB gotta take the shot at those numbers (but only 0.5U with McCoy as likely QB). 

Keontay Ingram +1100 0.5U - going to get some work with Eno Benjamin gone. Pass catching provides a path that avoids that number 1 rush D.

Maxx Williams +1500 0.5U - there’s a name I haven’t heard.   He’s likely the pass catching backup TE, insurance if Tre McBride goes down / can’t block to be in RZ packages.  
 

Thats 6U at play so more than enough - BOL! 

Well, a rough MNF on what's been a solid bounceback week.   Aiyuk the only guy who didn't get fed (but did get 2 TD's lol).   That's always going to be the tougher part of predicting the SF O.    Getting the under on Conner was solid predicting gamescript, though - and only Ray-Ray McLeod didn't get any meaningful snaps in the RZ, the 3 others did (and Juwan Jennings had a TD go through his hands, oh well).  Best move was to keep ARI at 0.5U plays lol.

So it's 1-1 on player props, and 0-5 on TD props, and -4U for the day...still a nice bounceback week at +13.9U, on to Turkey Day!

 

WEEK 11 MNF 

ATS/ ML & RACE

27-21-2 ATS, 9-14 ML/RACE, BALANCE +1.6U. (+2.0U Week 11 SNF, 3-1-1).                                                                                                   .                      
PLAYER PROPS

78-78,  BALANCE  +46.4U (+3.2U Week 11 SNF, 9-6) - Now 39-34 in 2U+ plays, Week 5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Week 6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Week 7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Week 8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Week 10 Kmet huge payoff, Week 11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins)


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-69, BALANCE +109.4U (+8.7U Week 11 SNF - win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF Week 3, Latavius Murray +1000 & Josh Reynolds +500 1U & Jody Fortson +900 1U & SF DST +1000 0.4U, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800 0.5U, Durham Smythe +700 1U & Trautman +800 1U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200 Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700 Week 9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Week 10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300 & Week 11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's).    
 

TOTAL:  +157.4U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U)

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NYRaider

NYRaider

Posted
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How're we feeling about the Thanksgiving games?

I'm feeling:

Lions (+9.5) vs Bills - The Lions are coming into the game on a hot streak averaging 27 ppg during their current 3 game winning streak. They're also 3-1 this season as home underdogs while the Bills are 3-3 as road favorites. The Bills offense hasn't looked great over the past few weeks and even if they jump out to a big lead early I'm very confident that the Lions will score in garbage time to make the game look closer than it actually was. 

Patriots (ML) at Vikings - The Patriots have quietly won 5/6 games and their defense is firing on all cylinders. We just saw the Cowboys wreak havoc on Cousins and the Patriots enter this week #1 in EPA per play, DVOA, pressure rate, and are #2 in sacks behind the Cowboys. The Vikings will be without Christian Darrisaw again this week and Cousins has historically struggled in prime time games. (10-18 SU) 

 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, NYRaider said:

How're we feeling about the Thanksgiving games?

I'm feeling:

Lions (+9.5) vs Bills - The Lions are coming into the game on a hot streak averaging 27 ppg during their current 3 game winning streak. They're also 3-1 this season as home underdogs while the Bills are 3-3 as road favorites. The Bills offense hasn't looked great over the past few weeks and even if they jump out to a big lead early I'm very confident that the Lions will score in garbage time to make the game look closer than it actually was. 

Patriots (ML) at Vikings - The Patriots have quietly won 5/6 games and their defense is firing on all cylinders. We just saw the Cowboys wreak havoc on Cousins and the Patriots enter this week #1 in EPA per play, DVOA, pressure rate, and are #2 in sacks behind the Cowboys. The Vikings will be without Christian Darrisaw again this week and Cousins has historically struggled in prime time games. (10-18 SU) 

 

I agree with both, I'll add one more, and the early player props & TD longshots for Turkey Day so far:

ATS/ML

DET +9.5 vs. BUF - I have no illusions that DET wins this - but going 7+ pts on Turkey Day, plus the DET D is playing so much better - and they have a much more diverse O with DJ Chark back, and Swift actually able to help.   The OL is very good, so I really think they can keep this to a 27-23 type game.  I won't say ML at all - but I'm comfortable with the points here.

DAL -8.5 vs. NYG - hate to say it, I love what the Gmen have done, but losing their 3 best CB's AND losing Wan'dale Robinson is a bridge too far.   I will admit that DAL's coaching issues and Dak throwing up duds is ALWAYS possible, but I think this is shaping up to be a big mismatch this week.

NE ML +120 @ MIN - Cousins in prime time, then no Darrisaw.   O centers around 1 key guy in pass game - what BB excels at taking away.   MIN power run game....jeez this is a pick I hate with the heart, but my brain screams to take.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Josh Allen O40.5 rush yds 2U, 60+ rush yds +280, 80+ +750 FD 0.5U - while DET's D has improved overall (rush D and pass D except vs. slot guys - see Wan'dale Robinson), they are still very vulnerable to running QB's - Danny Jones hit his prop, and would have hit the 50+ yd alt line if one was offered.   So I'm taking Allen's O40.5, and can't resist 60+ and a big 0.5U dip into 80+ (which Allen's done 1x, but again, I expect this more than a Singletary / Cook rush day).

Dawson Knox O34.5U 2U FD - no alt lines are out yet, but I'm good with this very low line.  Knox is now the security blanket, not the slot or RB, so I've got to take this vs. a leaky DET TE D.   If there are alt lines, I'll definitely be interested.

Ceedee Lamb O70.5 rec yds 2U, 90+ rec yds +200, 110+ rec yds +420 0.5U FD - That NYG decimated DB corps is going to have such a hard time covering Ceedee.   Remember his 88 yard day on MNF was against their best guys...and the big 40+ yd drop was included.    Yes, I know he had a slow week last week - but it was the Pollard / Zeke / DAL D show.     Given the complete patchwork secondary, I have to back a Ceedee week here.  

Tony Pollard O17.5 rec yds  2U DK - I'm disappointed I don't have B365, because I would be HAMMERING the 25+/50+ alt line props here.   As it is, an easy 2U play.

Rhamondre Stevenson O27.5 rec yds  2U FD/DK - like Pollard, there will be no alt lines (as they only offer rush alt lines for him), but man, this seems so easy, with his pass work floor and MIN's vulnerability.   If there was a 40/60 alt line, I'd smash it (and yes, that means the B365 50+ line for those who can still get it)


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Khalil Shakir +900 0.5U - Shakir's snaps have dropped, but the reality is that Isiah McKenzie's play has declined, and Shakir still presents a big body.   Only worth a small 0.5U stab, but it's the only longshot TD on BUF with any legit PT and RZ snaps, so I'll get a piece of the action here.   

Darius Slayton +310 DK +375 / +4500 2+ SI (0.8U/0.2U) - I know, I know - Trevon Diggs is actually playing well.   ZERO argument, and why I'm laying off any yard/catch props.  But Slayton's play has really elevated - and with Wan'dale out, I have to believe he'll get RZ looks.   ESP with a gamescript that could be catchup.   But he's not my only G-men play lol...

Richie James +500 FD +700 / +1100 2+ SI (0.8U/0.2U)  - the other guy who has guaranteed looks.   James benefits from likely less attention as well.  EDIT - and holy **** SI has this crazy +700/+1100 2+ line (0.8/0.2U it is)  Worth a shot, and finally we have....

Isaiah Hodgins +850 FD  - WHO???  Well, believe it or not, he's the guy with a 50+ snap share the last 2 games, and that's only going up with Robinson's injury.  Basically, I'm not sure if he plays big slot or not, or he goes out wide with James inside, but he was groomed to play big slot in BUF before he moved over to NYG.   So basically I'm willing to invest in all 3 WR spots.   

NE DST +700 FD 0.5U - not only is NE's D been great, but you combine the loss of Darrisaw, the fact MIN has ONE receiving weapon (which NE makes it easier to wipe out).  That's a way to get a pick-6/strip-sack 6 with Cousins.   And then you add NE's DVOA top 3 ST unit..and MIN at bottom 12.   So yeah, I'll take the small +700 stab, and frankly, feel better about that than any longshot play on either team.   

_________________________

OK that's all for now, at 20U that's probably a good thing.  BOL & have a good Turkey Day for all the US folk. 

 

 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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NYRaider

NYRaider

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Other games that have caught my eye: 

Chargers (-4.5) at Cardinals - I've seen reports that the Cardinals likely wait until after the bye to bring back Kyler/Hollywood and I'd imagine that Moore will miss this week as well. Arizona is coming into this game on a short week after their trip to Mexico City where they got absolutely destroyed by the 49ers and seemed to give up as the game winded down. The Chargers desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive and have been excellent on the road this year (5-0 ATS). 

Seahawks (-3.5) vs Raiders - The Seahawks have historically played well coming out of the bye and their offense was hitting on all cylinders before their minor hiccup against the Buccaneers in Germany. In the four weeks prior to their euro trip the Seahawks went 4-0 averaging 28.5 ppg with a 12 point average margin of victory. The Raiders on the other hand are trending in the opposite direction as the team's offense has really stalled out over the last month despite great performances from Adams/Jacobs. They've only averaged 15.5 ppg over the last month and have allowed struggling teams like the Saints, Jaguars, and Colts to have their way with them. Seems like a smash spot for the Seahawks offense and I'd wager that we see some regression for the Raiders ball security as they'll likely have to pass to stay in it against a very opportunistic Seahawks secondary.

Commanders (-4) vs Falcons - The Commanders are going to enter this week with a ton of momentum as they've went 5-1 over the last month and a half. Their defense has really turned it up to another level over the last 5 games allowing 15.8 ppg, 68.8 rushing yards per game, and generating 10 takeaways. The Falcons offense is entirely dependent on their ability to move the ball on the ground and they've struggled with turnovers over the last month of the season. I think Washington is able to slow down their run game and force Mariota into a couple of turnovers on their way to a comfortable win.

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

The line hasn’t moved off -19.5 yet on 365. Is that worrisome?

Not with Zeke there.   The Vegas models are slow to adjust when playing time changes occur.  When Zeke was out the lines would be a lot higher.    That’s why player props remain an edge to exploit for now.  

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