Weekly Bets Thread

[SmittyBacall]

9 hours ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Whatever Lamar rushing yards is at, hammer the over.

Why do you say that?

[KhanYouDigIt]

45 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Why do you say that?

Jags can’t defend/contain an RPO to save their life.

[SmittyBacall]

Pruitt!

[Malfatron]

17 hours ago, Malfatron said:

17 hours ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Whatever Lamar rushing yards is at, hammer the over.

53.5

37 At half.

Looking good

[KhanYouDigIt]

Just now, Malfatron said:

37 At half.

Looking good

Was 39, dumb kneel down. 

[Broncofan]

Josh Palmer alt line props finally came out - added 80+ Rec yds +240 / 100+ Rec yds FD 0.5U.   BOL!  

[adamq]

Massive day already.. followed @broncofan of course, and then 1st q I took Brandon Johnson to score +1200, and in the Jags game I nabbed Agnew  +3300 right after Edwards scored. 

To top it off I parlayed Lamar and Foreman alt lines and pounded that baby

 

Adding Kyle Juszczyk +750 / 2 +8500 to make the 49er game more fun to watch. 

[adamq]

Juwan Johnson just took a ball to the facemask,, should have been a TD

[thebestever6]

ugh Palmer one yard short of his prop man Vegas is good.

[Broncofan]

Palmer 1 yd short of his prop.  
 

Carter 2/15 then leaves at halftime.   RB go 6/65.   Ugh. 
 

Juwan Johnson muffs TD not once but TWICE (Kamara fumble and TD pass).   
 

So close to a massive day.   Sigh. 

[Broncofan]

One small TD play to add to Aaron Jones o3.5 catches - Mercedes Lewis +2200 FD 0.5U 

[Broncofan]

On 11/25/2022 at 11:20 AM, Broncofan said:

A lot of games without player props but some are trickling  out so early bird gets the worm (or better line hopefully): 

Already posted the ATS pick 2 days ago - adding 2 DK / SI props right away to take 2U each and 4 TD props on FD & 1 on a Canuck book (the Score): 

ATS/ML & RACE 

EARLY

NYJ -4-5 (now -6) - not just NYJ O better with no Zach Wilson; I don’t think Justin Fields will play; but even if he does I don’t think he runs.  Against the Jets pass D that’s a major issue.  Would back -6 TBH. 
 

PLAYER PROPS 

EARLY

1.  D’onta Foreman o51.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds +240, 90+ rush yds +520 0.5U FD - DEN run D def vulnerable.   

2.  Terry Mclaurin o60.5 Rec yds 2U DK, 80+ rec yds +200, 190+ rec yds +400 0.5U FD - Taylor Heinecke loves him he’s had 8 targets 4 of last 5 games (7 in the other one).   ATL gives up 9 targets / 90 yds per game to WR1.   

3. Treylon Burks O40.5 rec yds, 60+ rec yds +220, 80+ rec yds +520 0.5U FD - with CIN's top 3 CB's out, and DJ Reader back, I expect TEN won't be leaning just on Derrick Henry, so I think the breakout continues for Burks.

4.  Joe Burrow O280.5 pass yds 2U FD- TEN #1 run D by DVOA, pass funnel D, Mixon's out.   Pretty simple calculus.  

5.  Michael Carter O19.5 rec yds FD 4U - just a ridiculously low number given he's the pass catcher and Mike White targets RB's 30+ percent of the time.   If I was on B365 I might even hammer the 50+ prop for 2U, it's that juicy.

LATE

6. Josh Palmer o57.5 Rec yds 2U DK, 80+ Rec yds +240 & 100+ +520 FD 0.5U - when Keenan Allen plays and Mike Williams doesn’t - Palmer goes off.   Sad that FD doesn’t have alt lines here.   

7.  James Conner O63.5 rush yds vs. LAC 2U FD, 80+ rush yds +200 & 100+ +420 0.5U - LAC's run D is still very vulnerable, and with Kyler Murray back but nursing a hammy, that opens up more work for Conner.  If the early slate is going well, I'll be looking at the 80+ / 100+ alt lines, but for now it's just a 2U play.

SNF 

8.  Aaron Jones o3.5 catches +100 DK 2U - I do think PHI wins - so that’s an autobet. 

MNF

9.  Pat Friermuth o43.5 rec yds DK 2U, 60+ rec yds +180 & 80+ +400 FD 0.5U - he’s the top target and those numbers are just too low.   Definitely another high confidence play.  
 

 

Player props I’m still waiting to target - it's only Rachaad White who's left - Jeff Wilson at 80.5 rush yds took almost all the value away, so leaving that alone (plus not sure he holds up with full workload either).   Still, that's 26U of player props on the line (although "only" 20.5U is daytime)....but still, maybe that's enough lol

 

LONGSHOT TD 

1.  Damiere Byrd +600 / +9500 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) - catch-up game script and pass funnel D.   Odds +350 or less everywhere else. 

2.  Khadarel Hodge +1600 FD - see above.  +650 or less everywhere else.  

3.  MyCole Pruitt +700 FD - top receiving TE with Pitts on IR - +300 or less everywhere else.  

4.  David Bell +900 FD - slot D TB vulnerable and Bell snaps increasing.   +400 or less everywhere else.  

5.  Isiah Likely +800 Score - wow, can't believe this line.   Andrews is going to play, but they love to use both guys, esp in the RZ.   No 2+ TD props, if it's +8000 or better, probably will take a 0.2U shot.  EDIT:   Likely is inactive, so bet voids.   Instead, I'm going with @adamq's Teagan Quitoriano +1200 / +12000 2+ DK play for 0.8U/0.2U, given the increasing snap share he's enjoying (mega props here). 

LATE

6&7.  Brandon Bolden +2100 & Jakob Johnson +1900 0.5U each FD - everyone is on the news that Josh Jacobs to hammer the lines on Ameer Abdullah and Zamir White - so there's no value.  But with the committee, there's no guarantee those are the guys near the RZ - so taking near +2000 stabs on the all-purpose Bolden, who McDaniels trusts a ton, and the FB Johnson, I'll go 0.5U each and hope we see a zigzag play (and especially since it's McD, that's always possible).

8.  Jody Fortson +750 FD  & Justin Watson +700 SI - Juju's back, but Hardman/Toney are out.   And again, we see 12 formation a ton.   We know Fortson's a guy they like to match up...gotta take this.   Likewise, Watson rings in at +200 or worse odds everywhere else - gotta take that +700 play. 

9.  Juwan Johnson +410 / +4300 2+ 1.2U/0.3U FD - other books now have Juwan at +200 or less.  I won't complain, I'll just KEEP HITTING THIS.

MNF

10.  Pat Freirmuth +380 / +3500 1.2U / 0.3U FD - since Claypool got traded, he's become the top target.  I can't believe the yard / TD props are so juiced.  Without Darius Leonard and losing Kwitty Paye, the Colts D is particularly vulnerable to the TE since.    Hammering this.

So that's 11U in TD props....maybe that's enough for now lol.

 

 

On 11/25/2022 at 7:26 PM, Broncofan said:

OK so the alt lines are out, so I'm now taking 3.5U plays on the following:

1.  D’onta Foreman o51.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds +240, 90+ rush yds +520 0.5U FD - DEN run D def vulnerable.   

2.  Terry Mclaurin o60.5 Rec yds 2U DK, 80+ rec yds +200, 190+ rec yds +400 0.5U FD - Taylor Heinecke loves him he’s had 8 targets 4 of last 5 games (7 in the other one).   ATL gives up 9 targets / 90 yds per game to WR1.   

3.  Treylon Burks O40.5 rec yds, 60+ rec yds +220, 80+ rec yds +520 0.5U FD - with CIN's top 3 CB's out, and DJ Reader back, I expect TEN won't be leaning just on Derrick Henry, so I think the breakout continues for Burks.

I'm not yet on 3.5U plays, but I did add the following:

4.  James Conner O63.5 rush yds 2U FD - the only reason I'm not hitting 80+ / 100+ alt lines is just to make sure Kyler Murray is active - because his playing opens up the run game, and yet he's likely to run less coming off a hammy injury.

Player props I’m still waiting to target - Michael Carter Rec yds vs CHI; Josh Palmer Rec yds (@ ARI) ; Rachaad White rush TD props vs. CLE ; Jeff Wilson rush props vs. HOU.   And for MNF, I'm definitely going to be on Pat Freirmuth rec yds against IND (with no Leonard and hurting safeties) if his line is in mid-40's, and hammer the 60/80 alt line prop.

 

As far as TD props....the late & prime times were released, and holy **** Batman, a bunch of opps came up that I have to take a stab at, namely:

LATE

6&7.  Brandon Bolden +2100 & Jakob Johnson +1900 0.5U each FD - everyone is on the news that Josh Jacobs to hammer the lines on Ameer Abdullah and Zamir White - so there's no value.  But with the committee, there's no guarantee those are the guys near the RZ - so taking near +2000 stabs on the all-purpose Bolden, who McDaniels trusts a ton, and the FB Johnson, I'll go 0.5U each and hope we see a zigzag play (and especially since it's McD, that's always possible).

8.  Jody Fortson +750 FD - Juju's back, but Hardman/Toney are out.   And again, we see 12 formation a ton.   We know Fortson's a guy they like to match up...gotta take this. 

9.  Juwan Johnson +410 / +4300 2+ 1.2U/0.3U FD - other books now have Juwan at +200 or less.  I won't complain, I'll just KEEP HITTING THIS.

MNF

10.  Pat Freirmuth +380 / +3500 1.2U / 0.3U FD - since Claypool got traded, he's become the top target.  I can't believe the yard / TD props are so juiced.  Without Darius Leonard and losing Kwitty Paye, the Colts D is particularly vulnerable to the TE since.    Hammering this.

 

Updated the card above, it's already at 10U for TD props, and the 5 player props already come in at 14.5U, and out of the 4 left, at least 2 are going to be 3.5U plays, with the others 2U plays...so yeah, we're at 25.5U and counting, with likely 10U more to come.   So that's probably it for me...until SNF/MNF lol.   Hopefully the value evals I see pan out as hoped.  BOL!

 

On 11/26/2022 at 2:10 PM, Broncofan said:

Michael Carter's prop just came out - O19.5 rec yds on FD.   Honestly, that's a 4U play given Mike White's willingness to check down.

 

 

Man, fortune did NOT swing my way today:

-Terry Mclaurin had 3/45 at halftime, 0 in the 2H.  O58.5

-Aaron Jones had 3 catches at halftime....0 in the 2H.   O3.5

-Michael Carter had 15 yards at halftime....0 in the 2H, ankle injury.   O19.5.  

-Palmer missed by 1.5 yards in a game LAC trailed the entire 2H.   

Lost 12U with those plays.   UGH....

Juwan Johnson dropped 2 TD's (one a fumble, one a pass).   Jody Fortson was overthrown wide open in the EZ.   6U / 6.5U plays.  

Well, that's gambling...but won't lie, feel pretty snakebitten again, when the evals were IMO solid for everyone above.   Still, that's the game.

Fortunately, D'onta Foreman, Treylon Burks & James Conner all hit their main lines & alt lines in a big way....but again, a huge day was there for the taking...sigh.

ATS/ML - 1-0, easy $ with NYJ -4.5 (and -6 too).  +1U

PLAYER PROPS - 3-5, but with D'onta Foreman, James Conner & Treylon Burks all hitting their alt lines, Foreman/Conner hitting both alt lines, even with the 4U horrible beat loss with Carter, and 2U Aaron Jones L, I still end up +1.8U for the day.

TD props - 1-9, -2.0U - Thanks to MyCole Pruitt +700 hitting, even with all the other L's (and keep in mind I've still got Freirmuth TD props pending at 1.5U total), I keep the damage limited to -2U. 

So all that work.....and I'm basically +0.8U for the day...LOL.  Literally 20U+ swings all going the wrong way in player props, and 2 big near-misses for 10U+ in TD's too....but again, that's gambling.

 

WEEK 12 TURKEY DAY

ATS/ ML & RACE

27-22-2 ATS, 9-15 ML/RACE, BALANCE +1.6U. (EVEN Week 12 to MNF, 2-2). 

PLAYER PROPS

84-85,  BALANCE  +50.4U (+3.0U Week 12 to MNF, 6-7) - Now 42-36 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-69, BALANCE +110.6U (+1.2U Week 12 TURKEY DAY - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700)
 

TOTAL:  +165.2U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - +7.8U)

Edited November 28, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

So with Friermuth o43.5 Rec yds / 60+Rec yds +180 / 80+ Rec yds +400 0.5U and his +380 / +3500 2+ TD props (1.2U/0.3U) I’ll take 2 other TD props: 

Alec Pierce +500 / +6000 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) - 1 of 3 big body pass matchups Matt Ryan looks to near the EZ.  Pittman priced appropriately so more value here  

Jelani Woods +600 / +9000 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) - with Kylen Granson out he becomes the 3rd big body target and a value play at +600.    
 

That’s 7U on the line - hoping for big things to finish Week 12! 

[PincheJimmy]

Gonna be in Vegas Wednesday, any suggestions for the Buf vs NE game to make me some 💰 😎

[Broncofan]

Decided to add 2 more guys for MNF gotta trust my evals: 

Pat Freirmuth O43.5 rec yds 2U / 60+ rec yds +240 & / 80+ rec yds +480 0.5U FD - written up before. 
 

Parris Campbell o46.5 Rec yds 2U 60+ Rec yds +180 80+ +400 0.5U FD - slot guys give PIT a ton of trouble. 
   
Michael Pittman o67.5 yds 2U 90+ Rec yds +240 110 + Rec yds  +480 0.5U FD - Pittman goes into the slot and number 1 WR go off.  
 

It’s a hedge by taking both target hogs.    TJ Watt is my main fear but I have to go with my evals.  So that’s 14U tonight (gulp).   BOL!                                    

Edited November 28, 2022 by Broncofan