Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

Well Davis is now on IR-recall, which means the Iggles have 3 weeks to activate him.   If he isn't playing, I'd be 70+ percent confident in TEN +5.5, if he plays I'm more like 60 percent (but still lean that way).  He makes that much of a diff to their run D.

Other important injury news - Dion Dawkins is still a DNP on Mon/Tues - if he doesn't practice today, that's a huge downgrade to Dawson Knox's outlook, even with a low #.   

[adamq]

Here's 3 TD odds that stuck out to me..

 

Aaron Rodgers +1400 Pointsbet... He owns the Bears 🤷‍♂️

 

Mack Hollins +320- Mack is the #2 weapon in the passing game and I expect LV to be fighting back this entire game. Big dude who gets plenty of opportunities.

I know the match up isn't ideal, but Adams TORE them up last time so I think they will put all the focus they can on him while also trying to stop the run game. 

 

 

Evan Engram +380- Zay and ETN banged up, Detroit can score, and that d is porous to say the least. Especially against TEs

I will admit i do not watch the Jags, so before i bet this one..

his targets have plummeted over the past 3 or 4 games, any Jags fans in here by chance know why?

 

Edited December 1, 2022 by adamq

[Broncofan]

9 hours ago, adamq said:

Here's 3 TD odds that stuck out to me..

 

Aaron Rodgers +1400 Pointsbet... He owns the Bears 🤷‍♂️

 

Mack Hollins +320- Mack is the #2 weapon in the passing game and I expect LV to be fighting back this entire game. Big dude who gets plenty of opportunities

 

 

Evan Engram +380- Zay and ETN banged up, Detroit can score, and that d is porous to say the least. Especially against TEs

I will admit i do not watch the Jags, so before i bet this one..

his targets have plummeted over the past 3 or 4 games, any Jags fans in here by chance know why?

 

I'm obv not a Jags fan, but the target drop simply has to do with taking what the D is giving them - the DEN game was a little strange that he didn't get more work - but the LV game they got up early, and leaned on Etienne - while against KC & BAL, the way you attack them is the CB's, the S/ILB play is far better in coverage (BAL esp since Roquan joined them). 

I really do like the TD prop there for sure, given DET's weakness is definitely TE coverage.

[adamq]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

 

I really do like the TD prop there for sure, given DET's weakness is definitely TE coverage.

I'm not seeing lines on FD and it's at +210 elsewhere.. so it's very possible I wasn't paying attention this morning and my odds website was showing me the line from last week 😂 

Not nearly as tasty at +210 but I may consider it still. 

 

 

EDIT- its back up at 310 on FD and +400 on PB- Love love love it at 400. 1U for sure, may go 2 if the Zay Jones news doesn't look good today

Edited December 1, 2022 by adamq

[thebestever6]

I know it is probably dabbling in a game too much but I went the over for Meyers at 44.5 I feel that's way too low for him.

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I know it is probably dabbling in a game too much but I went the over for Meyers at 44.5 I feel that's way too low for him.

Meyers injured his shoulder and only played 16 snaps last week.  He’s going to play but there’s a high risk for reinjury.    That’s the reason it’s so low. 

[Broncofan]

Interestingly the Shakir line has dropped to +950 on FD from +1300 - so I'm staying at 0.5U.   I am going to hedge a bit with last-minute line drops and go with Isaiah McKenzie +400 / +3200 (0.8U/0.2U) given I think that's where the edge is for the BUF WR's tonight. 

[bigbadbuff]

Gabe Davis over 3.5 catches at +120 seems like fantastic odds. He’s gone over that in 3 straight games and in a game where Bill will almost assuredly double Diggs…. Loveee it

[bigbadbuff]

3 hours ago, bigbadbuff said:

Gabe Davis over 3.5 catches at +120 seems like fantastic odds. He’s gone over that in 3 straight games and in a game where Bill will almost assuredly double Diggs…. Loveee it

6 first half targets…1 catch. Sigh

[SmittyBacall]

Man, we are ICE cold.

[KhanYouDigIt]

21 hours ago, adamq said:

Here's 3 TD odds that stuck out to me..

 

Aaron Rodgers +1400 Pointsbet... He owns the Bears 🤷‍♂️

 

Mack Hollins +320- Mack is the #2 weapon in the passing game and I expect LV to be fighting back this entire game. Big dude who gets plenty of opportunities.

I know the match up isn't ideal, but Adams TORE them up last time so I think they will put all the focus they can on him while also trying to stop the run game. 

 

 

Evan Engram +380- Zay and ETN banged up, Detroit can score, and that d is porous to say the least. Especially against TEs

I will admit i do not watch the Jags, so before i bet this one..

his targets have plummeted over the past 3 or 4 games, any Jags fans in here by chance know why?

 

Should have had a TD against the Chiefs but it got called back.

When we are goal to go, it seems like Trevor likes Kirk and Agnew the most down there. The few guys that can beat man coverage in the RZ.

I would be looking at Chark TD props tbh. I think Tyson Campbell will be on St. Brown.

Look into Agnew TD prop as well, especially if Zay is out.

Revenge games for both Chark and Agnew.

[Broncofan]

18 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Man, we are ICE cold.

Singletary gets to 54 yards even with James Cook taking more work...and then loses 2 yards.   O53.5 OMG. 

Stevenson gets 10+ targets (penalties call back 2).....and gets 6 catches for 24 yards.  3 final targets with missed completions ALL get past 30.... O28.5 rec yds.   

God.

And then BB gives up, and doesn't use his TO's - and that removes the need to run Singletary.  6U swing...man, that hurts.

Allen rush yds was a plain miss.   But the other 2 calls, man, talk about snakebitten.  -7.5U for yesterday, BUF -5 was easy, and the TD props was actually very decent for McKenzie, he was all over the RZ, and even Shakir ran about 5-6 routes inside the 10...but not to be.   Oh well.  

I'll update at the end of Sunday card - still pretty sore about BB not playing to get the ball back - Singletary gets at least 2 more carries, and if NE stops, Stevenson catch seemed like a lock.  Won't lie, I was ****ed at BB when I saw him just give up.  

[Broncofan]

WEEK 13 SUNDAY / MONDAY

OK so lots of games with injury/personnel Q's, but I have 4 ATS/ML plays that are available I'm on, 4 player props I'm going to still back for 3.5U, and a few more I'm on the lookout for, and 5-6 longshot TD props that provided insane value.

ATS/ML

EARLY

NYJ +3 @ MIN - Teams that can't cover Justin Jefferson get burned.  The teams that have been able to both generate pressure, and limit Jefferson, have had success.   That's NYJ in a nutshell - and their O is now balanced and can exploit MIN's secondary without Zach Wilson at QB.   I'm likely going to take the ML at +140 too, but for capping, I'm taking the points, given the cold streak lol.

TEN +5 (now +4.5) @ PHI  - if Davis wasn't back from IR, I'd probably take the ML - but I'm still good with 5 points here.   TEN just matches up well with good teams, and finds ways to hang around.    Davis does influence my player prop choices, though, but not enough to back off TEN as an ATS dog.


LATE

CIN +3 vs. KC (now -2.5) - game of the week, among a bunch of great ones.   I just think this is a 3-pt or less game, so give me the CIN points.    

SNF/MNF

NO +3.5 @ TAM - I know, TAM crushed them earlier this year.    But the TAM D and OL are even more hurt, and Lattimore returns along with other key guys for NO.  I wish Winston was playing, I actually trust him more than Dalton, but I think NO's tough personnel matchup for TAM comes home to roost again on MNF.   If Sunday goes well, will consider the ML. 

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Garrett Wilson O60.5 rec yds 2U DK, 80+ rec yds +180 & 100+ rec yds +360 0.5U FD - put a competent QB, Wilson is an alpha WR.   Way too low against MIN's secondary.   My #3 high confidence play. 

Christian Kirk O62.5 rec yds 2U DK, 80+ rec yds +180 & 100+ rec yds +360 0.5U FD - DET is terrible against the slot receiver.  This is a big bounce-back spot after Zay Jones took the limelight last week.   Same FD odds given the number is higher for Wilson on FD and matches Kirk's main line.  My #2 high confidence play. 

Aaron Jones O57.5 rush yds 2U DK, 80+ rush yds +240 & 100+ rush yds +520 0.5U FD - FD props aren't out, but DK's 57.5 rush yard prop is so insanely low.  We know A-Rod is going to be protected, and CHI's run D now doesn’t have Roquan Smith or Eddie Jackson.  My #1 high confidence play   

Cole Kmet o27.5 yds on DK 2U, No Alt lines yet on FD - with no Devondre Campbell and awful safety play the Pack D Uber vulnerable to Kmet.  If the alt lines come out I’ll take the shot on 50/70 for sure.    My #4 high confidence play. 

Gus Edwards o55.5 rush yds on DK 2U.  80+ / 100+ +240 / +520 on FD for 1.5U more - DEN run D awful and I suspect Lamar runs less with hip.  My #5 high confidence plays.

Daniel Jones O32.5 rush yds 2U DK  - WAS's run D is solid....but they do allow QB rush opps.    If Chase Young returns, I'll probably avoid the alt lines for now - if he doesn't play, then I'll be tempted. 

Jordan Davis returning for PHI puts a dampener on my Derrick Henry enthusiasm.    And while I was hoping to get Dameon Pierce vs. CLE, they set a line at 73.5 which honestly, doesn't provide a lot of extra value, and with their awful QB situation and no Brandin Cooks, well, I think it better to avoid.

LATE

Kenneth Walker III O70.5 rush yds 2U DK, 90+ rush yds +180 & 110+ rush yds +360 0.5U FD - no Aaron Donald, no one on O - spells a SEA lead, and a LOT of Walker.    His slump ends this week IMO.

Keenan Allen o64.5 Rec yds 2U DK, 80+ Rec yds +200 & 100+ Rec yds 0.5U FD - he had 4/66 in week 1 in the first Q.  Injury is the only risk here.  

SNF/MNF

None out that stand out   

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

EARLY

Khadarel Hodge +1300 FD 0.5U -  PIT can be beat, and ATL figures to be trailing.   Gotta take a shot at these odds

MyCole Pruitt +800 FD - Since he's the RZ TE, gotta take a 1U shot here.   

Pharoah Brown +1300 (now +500) FD - When I saw these odds yesterday, my eyes popped - full 1U play.  I wish I had taken the 2 separate 1U plays - but I'm sticking this one out, with Njoku out, he's getting as many looks as Harrison Bryant (who's +150 lol).

Richie James +500 / +6000 (0.8U/0.2U) FD - the #2 target for WR, and a guy they design rub routes in the RZ / EZ packages for.   At +500/+6000, gotta take this shot.

Brandon Johnson +1100 FD 0.5U - def gets RZ snaps as the other big body with Sutton   

LATE

Jody Fortson +900 FD - I don't understand it, but I won't question it.   Going to the Fortson well as long as he gets RZ snaps and looks (checks both boxes).

 

SNF/MNF

Jake Ferguson +1300 FD 0.5U,  Peyton Hendershot +1200 FD 0.5U - you know the drill, DAL loves 12 formation and even 13 formation in the RZ.  

Cade Otton +700 TD 0.5U FD - still getting more looks, Ko Kieft was a 12 formation play, I'll take the more volume guy at those odds.

With news that Juwan Johnson is iffy, I was disappointed to see that Adam Trautman is also +400 - instead, I'll probably go Marquez Callaway +900 FD 0.5U instead - but I'm tempted to wait as the prime time odds for longshots oftens gets even longer.

 

That's enough for, hoping Sunday can get us back on track after a rough MNF/TNF.   Given the cold streak if you’re going to tail - don’t blame you if it’s main props only lol.   BOL! 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK all the lines are out - adding 3 player & 1 TD props.   

EARLY 

Cole Kmet o27.5 yds on DK 2U, No Alt lines yet on FD - with no Devondre Campbell and awful safety play the Pack D Uber vulnerable to Kmet.  If the alt lines come out I’ll take the shot on 50/70 for sure.    My #4 high confidence play. 
 

Gus Edwards o55.5 rush yds on DK 2U.  80+ / 100+ +240 / +520 on FD for 1.5U more - DEN run D awful and I suspect Lamar runs less with hip.  My #5 high confidence play. 
 

Brandon Johnson +1100 TD FD 0.5U - def gets RZ snaps as the other big body with Sutton   

LATE 

Keenan Allen o64.5 Rec yds 2U DK, 80+ Rec yds +200 & 100+ Rec yds 0.5U FD - he had 4/66 in week 1 in the first Q.  Injury is the only risk here.  
 

MNF

Cade Otton +700 TD 0.5U FD - still getting more looks, Ko Kieft was a 12 formation play, I'll take the more volume guy at those odds.

Given the cold streak if ppl only want to do the main line don’t blame you lol.   BOL! 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Broncofan

[N4L]

I haven't been watching enough film this year to justify posting my picks here. But I'm baaaaaack 

Over corderrell Paterson 7.5 rec yards - he played WR for 10 years and Atl moved him to RB last year. He was RB1, got hurt, and they have three legit RBs behind him who ran well when he was out. Pitts gets hurt two weeks ago and they basically moved cpat back to slot WR. Pittsburgh suuuucks at covering the slot. 7.5 yards is dummy low. Smash. Playing it alt line up to 38. 

Garrett Wilson over ~63 rec yards. Minnesota has a bad secondary and they give up a ton through the air. Mike white slangs the rock. Wilson is the clear alpha there. He's a big play waiting to happen at all times. 

Keenan Allen over 67 rec yards - he's back. He's healthy. Herbert is healthy. Raiders don't have anyone who can cover him. The number is 10 yards too low. He should have 10 targets 

David Montgomery over 67 rush yards. CHI OL is legit good at run blocking. GB is soft. They can't stop the run for ****. Chicago will out muscle them up front. I think GB will try and focus on fields running. Monty should have 20+ carries. 

AJ brown over 77 rec yards - Philly is about to play their hardest game of the year. Titans #1 rush D by a mile. You can't run on them. Philly will have to pass and when they are feeling the heat, they lean on AJB hard. Titans pass D is below average partly because they make every team throw the ball since no one can run on them. AJB will get force fed the ball. 

Johnathan Taylor over 74 rush yards - Dallas D can be had on the ground. Indy knows they won't be able to pass and will stick to the run game no matter what. Jeff Saturday has their OL playing well and they are running the ball better since he took over. 

Over 43 rec yards for George kittle. Miami has been bad against TEs partly because they are bad over the middle. That's where Jimmy feasts, and George should be utilized in this role with deebo out. He is a Yac machine obviously and could have this with 3-4 targets. Niners will be coming into the game with the mindset they have to score. That matters and will absolutely help here. 

Over 69 rec yards Amon Ra - ever since hockenson has been traded, he's had the middle of the field to himself. He's been on a tear the last three games. Target hog in a high scoring game.